| TwistedChief |
10-27-2022 02:44 PM |
ESPN take:
Quote:
Giants trade WR Toney to Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs get: WR Kadarius Toney
New York Giants get: 2023 third-round pick; 2023 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 27
Grade for the Chiefs: B
The defining characteristic of Toney's young NFL career has been lack of availability. He has played in exactly half of the Giants' 24 games since the start of 2021 because of injuries and COVID-19.
This year, Toney injured his hamstring in training camp, then played in the first two games of the season before reinjuring it. He hasn't played since and now believes he returned to action too soon the first time around.
But the other important factor is how efficient Toney was in his rookie season, albeit it in a somewhat limited sample.
Getting 420 receiving yards over 10 games might not sound particularly special, but Toney's limited playing time means he showed serious promise on a per-route basis. Among players with at least 150 routes run in 2021, Toney ranked 17th in yards per route run and 11th in yards per route run vs. man coverage.
His receiver tracking metrics from that first year flashed an ability to get open and generate yards after catch: He recorded a 67/45/64 open score/catch score/YAC score. A 67 open score right now would be well above those of Chiefs receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (52) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (29), although well below that of tight end Travis Kelce (80).
So Toney possesses promise. I think players traded early in their rookie contracts are interesting because there are countervailing forces at work. The longer they play, the less time remaining on a below-market deal they have left (decreasing their value) but also the more confident teams become in the quality of that player (increasing their value if the player has played well). In this case, though, the injuries complicate the picture, so Toney's forecast remains muddled.
Although the Chiefs' offense has been successful without Tyreek Hill, I think it could still use long-term receiving help. Smith-Schuster is looking like an increasingly successful signing (although 55% of his receiving yards have come via YAC, fourth highest of any WR with at least 150 routes this season), but Valdes-Scantling -- despite putting up a few big-yardage games -- is flashing some warning signs. He has the worst open score in the league and is bottom 10 in YAC score.
Kelce, Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling have roughly split slot snaps (with between 120 and 134 each) this year, with Mecole Hardman also working in at times. None of them exclusively occupies that space: All three WRs play more frequently out wide, while Kelce aligns tight as often as he's in the slot. Toney played in the slot 55% of the time last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
There are risks here. But for a Super Bowl contender like the Chiefs, I think acquiring Toney is a reasonable upside bet that has the potential to pay dividends this year if he's healthy but also for years to come. Toney is on just Year 2 of his rookie contract, and Smith-Schuster and Hardman are in the final years of their deals, plus Valdes-Scantling's $8.6 million 2023 salary is not guaranteed.
Grade for the Giants: B
The first sign Toney's time on the Giants might be cut short came during the 2022 draft, when the team selected another slot receiver, Wan'Dale Robinson, with the No. 43 pick. The selection resulted in questions about whether the team would deal Toney, which prompted an immediate denial from Giants GM Joe Schoen regarding the team "shopping" the receiver.
Whether they were or weren't putting him out there at the time, Toney is now gone.
With that draft pick, playing Toney just seven snaps in Week 1 (although he did play 28 in Week 2) and now the Giants moving on just 18 months into his pro career, we can conclude he didn't mesh with the new Schoen/Brian Daboll regime, which came in this offseason and thus did not draft him.
If we ignored all the circumstances, this trade would look odd. The Giants are 6-1 with arguably the worst wide receiver room in the NFL but just traded a high-upside player out of it. But the Giants are not as good as their record suggests and decided to get what they could for Toney now. It's like a falling stock: He has the potential to rebound, but the team didn't want to wait to find out and risk his trade value sinking more.
The aforementioned collection of receivers the Giants have on their roster -- Robinson, Darius Slayton, Richie James, Kenny Golladay, Marcus Johnson, David Sills V -- does not inspire a ton of confidence, but again, Toney barely played this year. New York has been riding with this lackluster group all season (Sterling Shepard suffered a torn ACL in Week 3), anyway.
If Toney wasn't part of the Giants' long-term plans, at least they did get tangible assets from trading him now.
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Chiefs acquire WR Kadarius Toney via Trade
(https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=345780)