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Apparently Garza hasn't signed with the Brewers yet. Still talks....
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Love Uncle Hud
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Really feel like they're one more power bat and another solid rotation arm away from making a run at this division.
As it stands today, I think they're just good enough to NOT be good enough (same as last season). |
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At some point they're going to have to make a couple big moves or it's rinse/repeat. I guess best case scenario is they're holding out to see if any of these young guys come on & if not pull the trigger on something midseason assuming we're in it. What's more likely is they'd make a small move or 2 & that's about it. |
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Zimmer and Ventura - both dudes could be special - we just need one to do it. Mike Moustakas - if he can crawl out of his offensive slump and have a breakout year with a little power, our lineup could be damned good. |
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I'm not CONFIDENT they've done that, but I could see how they have. According to pythag, their record was very close last year to what it should have been. Final numbers were within a half win of what they should have been. The offense should be improved, and has potential to be improved by a lot. IF Aoki does what he has done the past two years as the leadoff man and Alex Gordon slugs .450 again (his average over the past 3 years), the Royals HAVE added a power bat to the middle of the lineup (unconventionally). A bounce back year from Butler improves the offense. And it's not unreasonable to expect Hosmer and Perez to improve a little bit. Just a quick glance at offensive projections, based on established guys performing to norm/young guys taking small steps: Aoki - . 285/.355/.400 (30 SB, 90 R) Infante - . 290/.330/.420 Hosmer - .300/.360/.500 (24 HR, 35 2B) Butler - .300/.370/.450 (19 HR, 40 2B) Gordon - .290/.360/.460 (20 HR, 40 2B) Sal Perez - .290/.330/.440 (15 HR) Moustakas - .250/.300/.400 (15 HR) Cain - .260/.320/.400 Escobar - .270/.300/.370 (30 SB - these are his numbers hitting 9th for KC in his 3 years here) That's maybe not a flashy offense, but it's a deeper and more consistent one that should score more runs. They also have improved by leaps and bounds in what they'll get offensively out of RF and 2B. Whole lineup should be much deeper and more dangerous. The key question is going to be the pitching staff. They're likely not going to get as much out of the No. 2 spot in the rotation as a year ago, unless Vargas has a real renaissance. If they can get MORE out of the 4/5 spots in the rotation (and avoid 33 starts of high-5 ERA performance like they got a year ago), it can bridge some of the gap at No. 2. And the bullpen... it's not fair to expect it to be QUITE as dominant as it was a year ago, but it still should be one of the 2-3 best units in baseball. Add it all up... and I think you can make a good case for a Royals team that, at its best, could win 90-92 games (and maybe even jump up a little more if it has some positive luck). No guarantees. Obviously. But it's much easier to make a case for this team winning 90+ games because it has many fewer holes. |
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Hosmer and Moose need to truly step up.
Hosmer did last season, but needs to do it the whole year. Both of them need to become 100 RBI guys. |
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3 HR 6 2B It was a small sample size (just 17 games/66 ABs), but Moustakas played like the player we all hoped he'd become in Venezuela. Over a full season, that would be good for 25 HR and 50 2B. I'd be thrilled to get .260/.320/425 out of Moustakas, if he's playing the defense he showed in 2012. That would be an above average player, if not a star. A sign of things to come? Probably not, but I guess you could hope a little bit. |
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If Butler and Gordon hit to career norms to round out the 3-4-5 spots, they don't need Moustakas to be an offensive star. Just getting solid offensive contributions from him would make him a valuable player. |
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I can guarantee you that Moose does not have anywhere close to 100 rbis this year. That guy has some of the worst plate discipline in the majors and has shown absolutely no signs of correcting it.
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Moose needs to step it up, no doubt. But don't forget that Escobar had a terrible season at the plate as well. He really needs to get his bat together.
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He's also been much more successful hitting out of the 9th spot as a Royal. Hitting in that lower-pressure spot seems to bring out the best in him. If he can continue to give them .270/.300/.375 out of that spot, with his defense, it works just fine. The Royals also are no longer in a position where they are relying so much on those guys stepping up because they're strong 1-6, and Moustakas and Escobar are hitting 7-9. Most teams have question marks/concerns 7-9. |
I think people underestimate how badly the holes in our lineup damaged our run production last year. Not having to go Getz-Dyson-Escobar should make a significant difference.
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Praying for our rotation and to remain healthy.
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I wonder how likely a Moose/Valencia platoon situation is? That would seem like a huge upgrade against lefties. I don't know much about Valencia's defense though.
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Or using Getz as the leadoff hitter. Same issue. The Royals' biggest question marks are a former top 10 hitting prospect who has shown flashes offensively but never for more than half a season, and a CF and SS who both play ELITE level defense at critical positions. Not a bad spot to be in. |
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But Valencia will make the roster and play, IMO. His defense is slightly below average to average, but not likely to be a disaster in short stints. |
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The first thing I want to see when camp opens is what kind of shape Moose and Butler are in. Last year both of them were really out of shape.
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He's pretty old school in his approach in general, so hitting in the cage makes sense. |
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Just ran my simulator 25 times for the hell of it:
n=25 Royals AL Central Finish Division Champs: 8 2nd: 13 3rd: 4 4th: 0 Dead f'ing Last: 0 Playoffs Made it: 16 Didn't make it (includes losing a 163rd game): 9 Lost Wild Card Game: 4 Lost ALDS: 7 Lost ALCS: 0 Lost World Series: 2 (swept by the Braves, lost to the Braves in 5) Won World Series: 3 (swept the Pirates, beat the Braves in 5, beat the Dodgers in 7) Hmmm... my simulator may be a little too optimistic for the Royals. |
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DET 102-60 KC 76-86 CLE 71-91 CWS 70-92 MIN 67-95 ALW: TEX ALE: BOS Wild Card #1: OAK Wild Card #2: TB Well, that was anticlimactic. No playoffs to simulate, and in this particular season the AL Central really sucked and Detroit kicked all our asses. Oh, well. |
Kansas City Royals Appreciate Jeremy Guthrie’s Team-Friendly Move
January 24, 2014 12:36 pm EST by Doug LaCerte Jeremy Guthrie Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports One of the bigger Kansas City Royals stories I missed during my sports-related dark period involves patience, understanding and camaraderie. It’s a pretty darn uplifting thing to write about, especially compared to the usual up-and-down rigors of the MLB offseason and especially compared to the incredibly upsetting way the Kansas City Chiefs‘ season ended which I’m still not totally over. Thanks to things like the recent news about Jeremy Guthrie, though, I’m slowly working through it. On the Jan. 13, the Royals announced that Guthrie worked with them to restructure his contract in order to free up $3 million for 2014′s payroll. The team’s GM Dayton Moore explained specifics to local media and then gave the vaguest of vague explanations as to why the restructuring was used to save money this season. “We’re looking to maximize our payroll the best way we can,” Moore said. This restructuring of the veteran righty’s contract will surely be well-appreciated by fans and management alike. Guthrie now joins former Royals ace Gil Meche as guys who will be remembered for helping out their team in special and selfless ways. Moves like this breed confidence as players buy into the team’s ability to succeed enough to make sacrifices for it. This may seem overstated for a subtle rearranging of millions of dollars (and an additional $200,000), but Guthrie went out of his way to improve the team’s chances at winning right now. That warrants a non-sarcastic tip of the cap in any regard. Whatever Moore’s murky quote will portend remains to be seen. The recent news regarding Masahiro Tanaka keeps KC’s chances of signing a high-profile pitcher remote. I hope I’m wrong, but as of now I assume that $3 million isn’t enough to make a splash in the soon-to-be-ravenous, post-Tanaka pitching market. Doug LaCerte is a writer for Rantsports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DLaC67, “Like” him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google. Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/0...IxlYT74eEgg.99 |
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Just for laughs, let me see how many seasons it takes before the Twins make the simulated playoffs...
After 200 seasons, still no playoffs... edit: 500 seasons, they finished 2nd twice but still no playoffs for the Twins. edit2: finally happened, in season #512, and boy the AL Central is a flaming train wreck in that season. MIN 83-79 KC 80-82 CLE 76-86 DET 75-87 CWS 63-99 |
KC's 2014 ZiPS projections are out.
It seems to say that our lineup will be decent and the bullpen will be solid, but they are far less optimistic about our rotation than we are. |
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Hitting projections rarely make logical sense. For example, where do they get the projection that Aoki's BA will fall 6 points off his career average and his OBP will drop 20 points? The Vargas projection is especially bad. |
Uncle Hud was on 610 for an hour today. He said he was going to try to be a little calmer this year. Yeah, right...
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Any truth in the rumor that Hud was in the car with dime bag?
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Nevermind........... |
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Interesting.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Re: Santana; industry insiders say Garza deal means Magic unlikely to get more than 3y/$40m. Maybe much less. Could put many teams in play.</p>— Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) <a href="https://twitter.com/TNT_Mariners/statuses/427474767763890176">January 26, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
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Payroll is at an acceptable number right now, but Santana's drop is quickly becoming a litmus test for Glass's willingness to follow Dayton's lead and go "all-in."
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c'mon royals. DO IT!
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Royals better be trying to atleast get a 1 year deal with Santana, this rotation needs him
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I have to say, if by some miracle, the Royals sign Santana, this team is legit.
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I would JIMP if we signed Santana to 3/40.
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Saw the Royals thread at the top & thought something had happened like Santana signing.
Does anyone really think the Royals will do that? |
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So what has been the holdup with Santana getting a deal w/ somebody? Seems weird to me but honestly I haven't paid attention to baseball free agency in 10+ yrs due to the Royals typically being losers in it.
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Plus Santana is HR prone, probably not a good fit in small ballparks... and has a history of being inconsistent from year to year. That's a concern even if the Royals were to sign him. |
Pull the trigger... With Santana we have a SOLID rotation...
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ZIPS projections out on Fangraphs. Here are a few projections with comparables to our current players:
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp James Shields 212.0 8.24 2.50 0.93 114 4.2 Bob Welch Ervin Santana 185.7 7.12 2.67 1.31 96 2.2 Ramon Ortiz Yordano Ventura 137.3 7.47 3.74 0.92 98 1.7 Matt Clement Greg Holland 69.3 12.99 3.38 0.65 175 1.7 Bryan Harvey Jeremy Guthrie 166.0 5.20 2.60 1.19 90 1.3 Walt Terrell Danny Duffy 94.0 8.62 4.50 0.86 100 1.3 Erik Bedard Jason Vargas 191.0 5.80 2.36 1.55 87 1.2 Scott McGregor Wade Davis 140.3 7.57 3.46 1.03 90 1.1 Victor Santos Luke Hochevar 70.7 10.57 2.55 1.02 134 1.1 Trevor Hoffman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-...s-city-royals/ |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Royals&src=hash">#Royals</a> fans: RT <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo">@ChrisCotillo</a>: Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Rockies&src=hash">#Rockies</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Orioles&src=hash">#Orioles</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Mariners&src=hash">#Mariners</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Yankees&src=hash">#Yankees</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Dodgers&src=hash">#Dodgers</a> have expressed interest in signing Ervin Santana.</p>— Pete Grathoff (@pgrathoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/pgrathoff/statuses/427650751536439296">January 27, 2014</a></blockquote>
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There's a post on deadspin about the song "Royals" and it being inspired by a George Brett photograph. Nothing new, but this comment on Deadspin was hilarious.
It reads,"Ironically, "And we'll never be Royals" is included in every Scott Boras client's No Trade Clause" |
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Odds that Santana signs with the Royals?
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No high-end pitcher outside of Kershaw was going to get anything until Tanaka was signed. Now that he's signed by the Yankees, things are going to happen. |
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