This.

The last six years he's averaged a fan graphs dollar value of 7.1M so it's not that surprising. If 1 war is projected to be 6M then he's appropriately priced. As Duncan already pointed out though small markets can't be paying average rates on guys. We need to get above market production with our resources

I'm absolutely flabbergasted. This might be the single greatest, most constructive post to ever come from your keyboard.

Maybe you aren't just a troll... or... you just trolled us through truth and cognitive thought?

Damnit!!

If they keep him all year, he pitches well as the setup man, and he walks, whatever.

But I would be fine with trading him for something that doesn't necessarily help in 2014 at this point, to a team that needs bullpen help either now or at the deadline.

Even if it's something that can't help until 2016 or later, the Royals have enough bullpen pieces to get over and around trading Hochevar away for future returns.

Our window is probably 2014. Losing teams can't afford to spend money on the bullpen, and we've been a losing team for so long that we're used to thinking they should all be expendable, but we actually need him this season. I'm not going to give a damn about 2016 until this season is over.

The Luke Hochevar FanGraphs thinks exists in terms of effectiveness and value does not exist in the real world.

I like a lot of what FG does and think their PitchFx is one of the coolest, most reliable advanced analysis tools out there regarding pitchers.

But their formula for figuring pitcher WAR and value is ****ed. FanGraphs had Wade Davis as nearly a 2 WAR player this past season.

As far as paying market value for production... it depends on what you're getting and how easily alternatives can be found.

The more rare the commodity and harder it is to find, the more you can afford to pay fair market value for it, based on WAR.

I just think they can win in 2014 without him.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Kelvin Herrera is again the superior reliever this year. KC's bullpen crew is so deep, and Moore has such a good track record with building the bullpen, Hochevar is expendable. Just like any reliever except elite closer types.

Even if they traded Hochevar, they'd still be looking at RH setup crew options that include:

Kelvin Herrera
Louis Coleman
Aaron Crow

Possibly Wade Davis
Possibly Yordano Ventura

The one critique I do have is that they give undue credit to starters, but the data does show crappy starters can be effective in the pen while the converse is far more rare. I'd have no doubt Guthrie could be a 30+ save guy but I'm doubtful Davis can put up Guthrie numbers in the rotation. I do think Hoch can though. Oakland would never shell out $10m for those two to sit in the pen tossing 140 total innings. Why do we?

I used to think Hochevar could be an effective starter, too. But we have years of evidence that shows he can not.

Pitchers go in waves though. We had plenty of evidence Chen would never be effective and he was in KC at an old age for whatever reason. As the old Philly gm said "nobody has figured out pitching for the last 100 years"

I know we've debated it before, but some guys just consistently buck their advanced stats (good or bad). Chen has become one of those over the past 3-4 years, which is not completely unheard of (especially for soft-tossing lefties).

That's why you have to incorporate the scout's eye with advanced numbers and apply context. Keeps the numbers from lying to you.

I'm not saying without Hoch we're screwed and can't make the playoffs. However, this team with Hoch is better than this team without Hoch, and we can not conceivably trade him for someone else who helps us this year.

Given that I don't give a damn about 2015 or later right now, whatever small value Hoch provides this team, I'd rather keep it than trade it in for more value in a future year without Shields. Even if he gives us +0.2 WAR this season over whoever would take his spot and whoever we could trade him for could give us +1 WAR in 2016, I'll keep the fraction of a win in 2014.

edit: there is a limit to the win-now mentality I have, obviously. I'm not trading off Mondesi and Manaea for a 1-year rental of a decent SP.

The Royals and Holland have filed their numbers. Royals offered 4.1, Holland is asking for 5.2

What happens if they don't work it out?

An arbitrator will decide

Infante and Aoki were excellent additions as I've been saying for years as the resident Tigers fan around here the Royals are the team I fear the most in the AL Central. Should be some good fun this year. I look forward to it very much.

If they don't work it out, then the arbitrator has to pick one of those 2 numbers.

The other 2 arbitration-eligible players we haven't signed yet:

Crow 1.7, Royals 1.28

Maxwell 1.7, Royals 1.075

Bonifacio also filed his number, but shortly after the filing, he reached an agreement with the Royals.

Bonifacio 4, Royals 3, signed at 3.5

No news from the Royals in four days. Isn't it time for some announcement(s)? Even if it's just "Maxwell / Royals avoid arbitration"?

"It's a Major award!!!"

http://moots.com/wp-content/uploads/frageelay.png

Jelly of the month club for a year. That's the gift that keeps on giving all year long Clarke.

@pgrathoff: #Royals sign OF Justin Maxwell to one-year deal, avoid arbitration. Haven't heard terms. He was asking $1.7 million; team offered $1.075

@pgrathoff: Maxwell's deal is worth $1,325,000. He made $492,500 last year. That's a nice raise.

Not that anybody cares, but I am so pumped for next year.

Sounds like same broadcast team will be back as well. Including that Robot Physioc

Yankees win Tanaka sweepstakes. 7yr/155

So much for getting under the luxury tax. Yankees get Tanaka at 7 years 155 million

Royals had zero shot. Lmao. Baseball sucks

Now all the pitchers should start getting offers

With posting fee it is 7 years 175

So wishful thinking... hopefully the Yankees can't offer Santana a deal now and the Royals have one less team to compete against.

So Santana gets what? 5/90?

I doubt the Yankees and that park would be a very good fit for Ervin.

Stuff should start shaking out now, though the whole compensation pick thing could still have teams dragging their feet on Santana and Jimenez.

I don't think really affects the Santana market, other than getting the ball rolling. The Yankees were never going to sign him (guys that give up bombs + Yankee Stadium=disaster).

Fantastic. I actually wanted Tanaka to go to the Yankees all along, if not them, then the Dodgers I guess to keep him out of the AL. His best seasons are going to be wasted up there, and it obviously destroys their chance at staying under 189 unless they shed payroll elsewhere.

The Yankees are not a good team on paper at all, and their short-term future looks pretty bleak even with their ability to spend in free agency every year.

Since we aren't really competing for the same players, I see New York as a big fat talent sink, helping us out by absorbing free agent talent away from teams that might actually stop us from making the playoffs.

More like 7 years/$240 M

Rany Jazayerli ‏@jazayerli 23m
That's $175M for Tanaka, and, what, $50-100M for not resetting the luxury tax? That means his true cost is $225-275M for 7 years.

Dan Lewis ‏@DanDotLewis 21m
@jazayerli Luxury tax resent isn't $100m. When I did the math earlier, it was about $65m, tops.

Rany Jazayerli ‏@jazayerli 19m
That makes it 7/$240. $34.3M per year.

And they'll get swamped with A-Rod money next year. Their farm is so bad and they have so many holes, they'll be forced to keep overspending every year in a futile effort to compete.

Good points.

The Yankees lineup is still old and thin. When Ellsbury gets hurt and misses a big part of the season, they'll run into trouble.

My favorite:

#Yankees have spent half a BILLION dollars this winter & still have Kelly Johnson likely stating at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B

Likely Yankees lineup (guys likely to miss 20 games or more in bold):

Ellsbury
Jeter
Beltran
McCann (technicality - catcher)
Soriano
Teixeira
Kelly Johnson
Brendan Ryan/Brian Roberts
Brett Gardner

Sabathia
Tanaka
Kuroda
Nova
Phelps/Pineda

with Robertson as the closer.

Not sure that's a playoff team. What I am sure is that it is an old, expensive team. With almost no depth to cover for the multitudes of injuries that are coming.

If Ellsbury has another big injury and misses another big chunk of the season... they could be in serious trouble.

I would think Jeter would be likely to miss at least 20 games as well.. right?

There's a good shot, though it's not a slam dunk lock like it is with the other guys, IMO.

He's only missed that many games 3 times in 19 years, though two of those are in the past 3 years.

His glove is so bad and his bat is not as impressive anymore, that I'm not really interested in whether he misses time. He'll be 40 years old and in 70+ AB last season he didn't break .600 OPS. If he did get hurt, his replacement might not be much of a downgrade.

edit: holy smokes, I just looked him up last season. He only played 17 games, but he was so incredibly terrible in those 17 games, that he managed to rack up a -0.7 WAR. That is not bad, its horrific. He probably won't be a -7 WAR player over a full season, but he's just about done.

Jeff Francoeur thinks that doesn't sound so bad...

But seriously, their backup is Brendan Ryan. Not hard to see a situation where Beltran/Teixeira/Jeter are sitting with injuries and the Yankees have multiple black holes in their lineup.

The only downside with them signing Tanaka and still having Sabathia, is it pretty much removes any possibility of them losing 100 games.

Seriously, just pretend those 2 pitchers don't exist, and take a good, hard look at that team.

If you've been following the Royals for the last 15 years, doesn't it look familiar? AND they play in the AL East?

... Unless Tanaka is Daisuke Matsuzaka. No. 4/5 pitchers don't prevent teams from losing 100 games.

For Tanaka's sake, I hope the Yankees blew away the Dodgers, because if the Dodgers were in the same ballpark, then he made a VERY stupid decision. I know with those kinda players media exposure and endorsement deals are a big factor, but he would have had plenty of that in LA, and the Dodgers should be good.

In New York, at best, he won't be blamed when they struggle, but if he looks just a little wobbly or pitches like a #3, he's going to get a lot of hate.

Matt Garza signing with Brewers, 4 yr/$52M deal

I have to think that's quite a letdown for Erv. If Garza signs for $52M, I'd be shocked if Erv got much more than that, perhaps in the $70M range.

Wow. You have to wonder whether we could have made a serious run at him had we not inked Vargas.

Garza signs for 4/$52?

That makes me think we might see Santana sign for $10/11 million a year.

Garza doesn't carry the first-round pick compensation weight with him, which actually is worse than Garza's injury issues, by most estimates.

4/45 seems like it might actually happen for Santana now. Wow. Unless Garza's medical exams are just a disaster...

Garza's medical records scared off a lot of teams. I wouldn't say this sets a precedent just yet.

Right. But unless Garza's medicals have been worse than expected (they've been expect to be a negative all along, but less of a negative than losing a comp. pick, according to what I'd read), it might.

Will be interesting to watch.

I said it at the beginning of the offseason and I'll say it again. Offer 3/$45 and see what happens

I think I laughed that off at the time, but it looks like a possibility now.

I doubt the Royals will be offering Ervin anything but that'd be nice if he came back, don't expect it at all though.

We probably already offered at least that much before moving on to Vargas and Infante.

I think teams that would be scared off by medical records would generally have a lot more money than teams that would be scared off by the draft pick. I think he'll get at least 5/60, probably more.

Offer it again

Looks like Chris Getz is going to be stealing money from the Blue Jays this year, though its just a minor league contract.

We need to throw a deal at either Ubaldo or Ervin... One more pitcher away from a SOLID rotation...

Still very possible. I have been 100 percent in that boat previously but am less certain of it now.

While I would love to add another solid pitcher, I just don't see it happening. I think they are content to rely on Duffy and Ventura to fill the last spots in the rotation unless someone jumps it up in Spring Training to keep Ventura in the minors.

Wade Davies will jump up and take the final rotation spot. A lock.

I agree and wish it wasn't true. They'll hold off on Ventura until they get an extra year of service from him. This will probably cost us 2 games.

Royals To Sign Jon Rauch
By Jeff Todd [January 23 at 2:43pm CST]
The Royals have agreed to terms with reliever Jon Rauch, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

Obligatory, Print 'em.

Man, love us some relief pitchers.

That must be a minor league contract, we have no room for him. He was garbage last season and underwhelming the 2 seasons before that. Last time he was good was 2010.

edit: Couple odd bits of trivia about this guy.

#1) He is the tallest player in MLB history. (6'11")

#2) He's one of the few pitchers who has struck out 4 batters in one inning.

Andy, I was being sarcastic. But there may be truth to this.

Only way they get good value out of paying Getz is if his wife attends each game topless, or at least in a bikini.

True dat.

I thought we non tendered Getz but took his wife to arbitration.

I'm actually neutral on Physioc. I don't love him, but I don't hate him either. However, the only thing worse than Rex Hudler is Hawk Harrelson.

Thats insane. Rex Hudler is the man.

Butt Hurt much?

http://www.stlcardinalbaseball.com/l...st-of-fairness

Ditto, on Physioc I can take him or leave him, he's OK. Hudler is a God-awful clown.

Uncle Hud is a squirter....

http://i40.tinypic.com/216k4o.gif

I see the Royals fantasy camp is going on right now here in Phoenix. I wonder if Brett can put on a smile for dudes paying thousands to be there?

As I recall, Rauch was hanging around in the O's system last year, and made a major change in his delivery. Off the top of my head I don't remember if it was knuckleballing or going sidearm. Probably sidearm. Didn't seem to help.