ChiefsPlanet - Chiefs Smith signs with Raiders

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Smith signs with Raiders (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=298793)

I'd still be willing to take a DE if the right guy was sitting there.

Poe's still a fluid situation and we know Howard can play NT in this system. If you can get a DE that's capable of stepping in for Howard if we let Poe walk, that's not a bad use of a pick. Moreover, we still don't know if DeVito will be back and Bailey's about to get to the more expensive part of his deal (after disappointing quite a bit this year).

I'm still leaning CB or DL. I think those are areas of legitimate need for the team and I also think that's where the value will be in this draft due to the depth of the available prospects. There are going to be some damn good DL and CB prospects available to us at 28.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12123699)

Is it really? Or do you really just like Lynch?

I know everyone always moans about the 'wait 'till next year' answer, but look at it objectively and isn't next year really a better time to take the QB?

What starters will need to be replaced next season? As I see it, none of them. The full allotment of starters on this team appear to be under control for the next 2 seasons at least (presuming a Berry extension and the ability to tag Poe). We'll also have our full complement of draft picks. Moreover, we'll get max benefit from the QB as well.

If we take a QB now, we'll be looking at almost certainly 2 years of his rookie contract being burned as a backup. If we take him next season, we'll probably only burn one of those years off and be able to move on from Smith in 2018 when his cap hit is $20 million and his dead money is only $3.6. That was always the most likely year to move on from him and it remains so. We would then have a full 4 seasons of the rookie QB still to use up before we have to pay him like a grown up.

We wouldn't be looking to replace starters in the 2017 draft and we'd have all of our picks plus any potential comp picks. I figure that Smith and Schwartz will offset but it's also possible that Allen's shocker of a deal offsets Schwartz, giving us a 'net' of Smith's deal and Daniel's surprisingly expensive contract. That could realistically net us 2 fourth rounders in '17.

Most of the ceteris paribus sort of factors here point to 2017 being the better year to draft a QB and by a fair amount. The only wild card truly is the available talent.

If you believe that Paxton Lynch (should he be available) is a legitimate franchise guy then you go ahead and take him. But you're not taking him because the time is ideal - you're taking him because the player is ideal and the timing is tolerable.

both

i don't care about 'burning 2 years of his contract'...if you think he's the guy, take him...sitting for 1,2,3 years makes no difference to me, acquiring him is the only thing that matters

Lynch, if he fell, would be the best raw materials in a QB to ever stare us in the face...

we can absolutely afford to take him now, we have only 1 real need, a cb...but a qbotf trumps that, if available

Yeah, dl is probably the logical way to go.

CB too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can (Post 12123909)

Financially, having a guy sit for 3 years just doesn't work. He's gonna then start year 4 and you've gotta make decisions in the osweiler form at that point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 12123914)

Financially, having a guy sit for 3 years just doesn't work. He's gonna then start year 4 and you've gotta make decisions in the osweiler form at that point.

well, he wouldn't sit for 3 years likely...and still, don't care

if he's the guy, you take him and figure it out later

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 12123899)

FWIW Mackensie Alexander ran a 4.4 and had a 37.5 vertical at his pro day today.

Those are pretty good #'s for him.

I just hate Pro Days bc the 40 times are always better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 12123914)

Financially, having a guy sit for 3 years just doesn't work. He's gonna then start year 4 and you've gotta make decisions in the osweiler form at that point.

And again - you're seeing very few teams win championship with QBs on big money deals right now.

It's not just 'get your franchise QB', it's 'get a franchise QB for cheap'. The longer you have that, the longer your window is truly open.

Because the moment you're paying Matt Ryan $25 million, your window has slammed shut. Even Drew Brees at his money is getting in the way of the Saints winning championships. The Pats won when Brady took a paycut, likewise with the Broncos. Rookie deals and/or veterans who've been paid and are looking to win one last ring. Teams just are not winning championships on the backs of quarterbacks sitting on that big 2nd contract.

Maximizing the number of cheap years you get from your QB, especially if 1 or 2 of those can come after he's already learned the ropes, is the best way to win that title, IMO. If you can get a guy who sits the bench for a year, takes a beating as a starter in year 2, hits his stride in year 3 and then kicks ass and takes names in years 4 and 5, you're just way way WAY ahead of the game and in so doing, you've effectively doubled the length of time that you have your best shot at a title (years 4 and 5, instead of just year 5).

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 12123929)

I think franchises are starting to catch up with this. Or maybe it's just that there aren't any big qbs worth a big deal, but with th cap going up, for the chiefs right now, having smith at what we do is pretty nice.

Apparently they're expecting a big jump in the cap next year as well.

unless you can guarantee that a qbotf (i.e. someone you believe is a qbotf) will be available to you at whatever pick you have next year, this is all a waste of time

when 'the guy' is there, you take him...absolutely nothing else matters

if you think lynch is the guy, you draft him...the future is a lottery pick, this pick this year is a gift waiting to be opened

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can (Post 12123940)

if you think lynch is the guy, you draft him...the future is a lottery pick, this pick this year is a gift waiting to be opened

I don't disagree.

But that's why I say it's the player and not the timing that dictates.

If Dorsey/Reid believe that Lynch is going to be a premier QB in this league - okay, works for me. But it's still not ideal. Ideally that guy would be available next season.

It's tolerable timing, but not perfect.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can (Post 12123940)

If they feel that way, yes, do it.

But the problem I see is you just don't know if he's the guy for atleast 2 or 3 years after you draft him.

The Jets, Broncos and Browns are all fighting for Colin Kaepernick. That's 3 teams that are looking hard for a QB, and SF will make that 3 if one of those teams get him.

Add the Rams who are piddling Case ****ing Keenum.

I don't see any way the top 3 QB's even make it to pick 20.

no sure i understand the jets bailing on fitzpatrick in order to trade picks for kaperwhatever

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 12123957)

Yeah, if the Jets lose Fitzpatrick, I think you're probably right.

I figured on the Browns, 49ers and Rams snapping on the 'big 3' by pick 15. If the 49ers trade away Kaepernick, it's all but certain.

It still doesn't seem likely that Lynch falls to 28.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 12123957)

This. I love Lynch, but I haven't even entertained the discussion because I'm 100% sure he's gone before we pick.