| KChiefs1 |
01-09-2020 02:33 PM |
Let’s talk about the Texans
(4) Houston Texans at (2) Kansas City Chiefs
The Watson factor: Deshaun Watson rushed for two scores and passed for another to offset two interceptions when Houston overcame a 17-3 deficit to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City back in Week 6.
“Houston has a shot because Deshaun is an equalizer and they can do some of that read-option stuff, which conflicts you,” a coach who faced the Chiefs this season said. “We studied a lot of their tape before we played Kansas City. Whether they can replicate that, I don’t know. The weather can be a factor for a dome team. That can be underplayed. When you watch Kansas City on defense, they are playing way different than they were in the beginning. A bunch of them get it now.”
Dealing with Chiefs’ weapons: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman give the Chiefs explosive weaponry that is even harder to defend with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. That’s problematic for a Texans defense that ranked 28th in expected points added (EPA) this season, although J.J. Watt’s return gives defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel some needed firepower.
“Houston will start off with a bunch of guys in the box, and then drop into quarters and try to hopefully get pressure with their guys up front,” an offensive coordinator said. “Houston’s linebackers are good. They can cover the underneath stuff. The wild card is Mahomes’ ability to scramble and throw it to guys on the move, and that is what hurts the quarters defense when they are playing that zone. That is the only way Houston can match up. If they try to play man, they do not have the corners.”
On the Texans’ inconsistencies: Houston finished among the NFL’s top eight in offensive EPA this season. However, among those top eight offenses, the Texans own three of the seven worst single-game performances (at Baltimore, at Tampa Bay and home against Carolina). They also own the single best offensive EPA performance among those top-eight offensive teams, dominating to a shocking extent during a 53-32 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.
“I think Kansas City will win, but that could be my upset game, because with Houston, you just do not know,” a personnel director said. “I just love the fact that when it gets crazy, Watson doesn’t necessarily throw the ball very well, but he can scramble and create and he is tough. Watson is better when it’s muddy, just like Ben Roethlisberger was. He is that type of quarterback.”
Texans at Chiefs (-9.5)
What a Chiefs win looks like: Using all the hype Jackson has received this season as fuel, Patrick Mahomes delivers a classic “Remember me?” game against the Texans defense, which gave up 425 yards and 24 first downs to the Bills and finished 26th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Mahomes, who was sacked at the second-lowest rate of any quarterback, dances around the pocket and sprays lasers to Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the Chiefs’ pass-catchers. Frank Clark, Chris Jones and Terrell Suggs get after Deshaun Watson all afternoon, sacking him seven times. The Football Gods give us (not including Titans and Texans fans) what we want: Mahomes versus Jackson in the AFC title game.
What a Texans win looks like: Watson picks up where he left off against the Bills, puts the Texans on his back and carries them to the AFC Championship game in the signature performance of his career. Will Fuller returns from a hamstring injury, and the Chiefs’ defense suffers from communication issues and coverage busts without safety Juan Thornhill, who torn an ACL in Week 17. J.J. Watt makes a handful of game-changing plays, and Andy Reid botches clock management down the stretch as the Chiefs try to make a late comeback. Every Monday morning sports-talk show leads with a debate about whether Watson is actually just as good as Mahomes, which inadvertently leads to Bears fans sobbing uncontrollably as they realize just how cruel the world can be.
The pick: Chiefs (-9.5)
When the two teams faced each other in Week 6, the Texans had six drives of 10-plus plays and piled up 35 first downs. Their best defense against Mahomes was to keep the ball out of his hands. Kansas City’s defense is better now than it was then, and the Chiefs are much healthier. I hate going against Watson, but unless Watt takes the game over or the Chiefs have a couple of flukey turnovers, I don’t see Houston being able to slow down Kansas City’s offense.
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