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spoiler alert: Mahomes will just take off. It's literally what Tennessee did on his 27 yard TD run. |
Can't wait for Skip to swallow his dick after his terrible takes all year and this week.
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The Bears did that and we killed them in the intermediate level of the field again and again. Mahomes has grown significantly in that area this year. He’s become patient and will sacrifice for an easy 5 yards on 1st down if he has to. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pmBiPvuT39Y" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe> |
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A few things I've heard and read....
Dan orlovsky has a great breakdown of cover 3. The Chiefs are going to mess around a ton with motion. It's a good cover 3 beater and Andy does it as well as anybody. Ray Lewis believes you look at where Richard Sherman is and hitch hitch hitch all day long if they're giving you the cover 3 look. Lots of people believe the Chiefs need to get the ball out quickly. But also plenty who question if mahomes mobility will cause some problems. Id bet the Chiefs plan a lot of designed rollouts. Inside the NFL talked about how the 49ers are vulnerable on runs up the middle and should use Damien williams. I just don't think that's our game. We saw this playoffs why it's better for us to attack bigger chunks instead of relying on our receivers to catch 3rd down passes. |
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Shanahan is smart enough not to just run at Chris Jones all day. Anyone who has to set the edge against Kittle and Juice also have to cover them in play-action. |
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to clarify-and if you actually bothered to watch KC, you'd see this- Spags will run a four man line. Mostly. He may walk a 'backer down. If he does, he may or may not be coming. He might just jump back out at the snap. You may see 3 lb'ers. You might see 2. You might see 1. We have several players that play several roles. Sorensen may be a nickel type LB, a SS, or a FS, Matthieu a slot CB or a SS, or a FS, and Fuller may be a FS, or slot CB. O'Daniel may be an OLB or a SS. The only guys in the back 7 that are generally what they appear to be on every snap are the outside corners. in the defensive backfield, we mix and match man and zone looks. We'll show blitz and not; we'll delay blitz when it looked like we were going to sit in coverage. pre-snap reads and post snap reality are seldom the same thing. We do similar things on the defensive line. Sometimes you'll see Kpassgnon, a DE, line up inside. Sometimes Jones, a DT, will line up outside. Sometimes you'll see Clark on the right. Sometimes he'll be on the left. They stunt, and cross, and hell, against Tennessee, we saw Kpass ten yards downfield breaking up a pass in the middle of the field to a RB. And T. Suggs still looks like Suggs. Since this defense got healthy, and the whole group understanding the system, they've been very, very good. A lot of deception. |
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The best alignment is one that plays sticky man coverage to prevent quick wins/throws from Mahomes and pairs it with a good pass rush. The Chiefs made nice adjustments to that approach as the season went on, but it's still the best chance. Comes down to personnel. The 49ers offense will find some success against Kansas City, no doubt. But the Chiefs D is very tough and physical - something I think many are overlooking or unaware of outside those who follow the Chiefs. Start with the DL: Frank Clark and Terrell Suggs are two of the toughest, nastiest players you're going to find at DE. They're relentless and play with an edge. Pennel and Jones and Nnadi inside are all physical players. Xavier Williams is really the only finesse guy they have been playing regularly, and he's their 4th DT. At LB, Ragland and Damien Wilson are very physical OLBs. Another key part of the defensive transformation was flipping Wilson to WLB and inserting Ragland at SLB, benching "coverage specialist" WLB Darron Lee (who sucks at coverage and is a weak tackler). The Ss, Tyrann Mathieu and Dan Sorenson, are both really physical players. When KC goes to its 3-safety defense, with Kyle Fuller playing the deep safety. Even when Ragland comes off and the third safety comes on, a physical player slides into the role of that LB. ^ Long way of me saying that the Chiefs may get BEAT on defense, but they won't get BEAT UP physically. Last year, the Chiefs' D was a soft, finesse defense. If it couldn't rush the passer and win with pressure, it was worthless. Very different this year. |
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Niners use more pre-snap motion and they teach their backs not to cut as early as Henry was cutting against KC. But, yeah, I think KC could not have asked for a better opponent than the Titans to help prepare them for the SF offense. |
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I'm truly terrified of Bashaud Breeland in this game.
The play-action is going to eat him alive. He's not a particularly smart CB and he's super-aggressive. He loves coming downhill in run support and those play fakes will have him jumping every time. Worse still, he'd be a marginal athlete at SS, as a CB he's Richard Sherman without the savvy. He has nothing approaching the recovery speed to stay in a play if he so much as takes a single false step. I hope he just shades these guys towards inside routes, stays back on play action and stays on those dig/in routes. Eventually they'll torch him on a double move but oh well - they ain't gonna win it with 7 points. You tip your cap and go to the sideline at that point. If Grapes can get you with a deep throw on the sidelines, well then he got you. But don't give him that easy money that you were giving Tannehill and Corey Davis last week. Oh, and none of that even speaks to the fact that he's good for at least one holding and/or PI penalty per week when he gets beat. I think he's gonna be a walking 3rd down conversion if he plays anything like he's played most of the year. He's simply a god-awful matchup for a Shanahan team that thrives on misdirection and play action. Still can't believe that stupid ****er held a guys jersey on 3rd and 22. You just can't be much dumber than Bashaud Breeland is out there and I just know it's going to kill us. I have no idea what Spags can do to minimize his impact but I hope he figures something out. Otherwise it'll be like that game where Manning just dropped back and found Mitchell every play for 3 series and beat us with the Broncos. The guy's a major liability. |
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The Vikings resemble Mike Shanahan's offense. But not the Titans. Just look at the way we use Kittle and Juice. The Titans don't have anything like that. They're superficially similar in some ways but I think the Rams are far more similar to us than any other team even though the personnel is different (no FB) and they run more inside zone than outside. The Packers are pretty similar schematically but after two games against them it's clear that Lafluer isn't in the same class of play design or play calling as Kyle is |
Had to turn off the sports talk shows after everyone keeps blowing the 49ers
Even Thannon Tharpe went full tard and jumped on shannarats nuts |
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You’re absolutely correct. Just finished watching the video and I’m beyond petrified now. I mean, KC has all the answers. It’s unfair. Now that I saw how great Mahomes played against a D so similar to ours in all areas, time to go lose even more sleep by watching the KC vs Tenn highlights. That’ll show me how they’ll stop the 9ers O. It’s truly unfair. |
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To quote Barney Stinson (kind of): Haaaaaaaaave ya seen what the Chiefs did to the run games of the Broncos, Vikings and Packers? |
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What do you expect him to say |
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Hitchens is actually doing a decent job this year understanding his roles. He's not a guy that will take himself out of plays that often. Ragland will, but ultimately if I have a choice between him playing downhill and taking himself completely out of a play or playing more passive and being a step too slow to make a play in space anyway, I'll take the aggression. Wilson's been quite good this year. The DL - yeah, you think whatever you want about those guys. That's a ****ing stellar group and I'm looking forward to them going out there and giving some talking heads a mushroom tattoo. Those guys have played exceptionally smart football for about 10 weeks and they've done it while playing with a ferocity you rarely see. I have very few concerns about this DL - they'll do their jobs and then some. The game may just come down to Breeland not being an idiot and Hitchens being locked in. If Hitchens can flow/react as he needs to to keep those stretch plays from breaking for 6-8 yards with regularity and force the 49ers into 3rd downs and then Breeland can manage to not allow them to convert those 3rd downs with regularity, I think we'll be okay on defense. Not great, but okay. As I've said all along - the offense will have to win this sucker and if they don't answer the bell, we lose. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Carl Peterson told me this is his lucky hat. You're welcome, KC. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SBLIV?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SBLIV</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ChiefsKingdom?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ChiefsKingdom</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/810WHB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#810WHB</a> <a href="https://t.co/nQ8rOqdC1f">pic.twitter.com/nQ8rOqdC1f</a></p>— Steven St.John (@SSJWHB) <a href="https://twitter.com/SSJWHB/status/1223258818420887552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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He has been riding mahomies nuts all year and all week so it was a bit of a surprise. I'll be glad once we run the 49ers out of Miami and all these talking heads look like the idiots they are |
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Four games. 89 carries. 337 yards. 3.8 YPR. Now, none of those teams have the-two way weapons at TE and FB that San Francisco does. I expect the 49ers to be more successful. But the Chiefs will defend the run far better than the Packers or Vikings did. |
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Guess after 50 years he finally remembered he had it. |
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Re: DJ on Breeland
I can see your concern and think it’s fair but even on Breeland’s worst day, he was damn close to intercepting that pass across the field on an in-cutting route off of play action. He’s not perfect — not close. But I think you’re selling him short. He has showed smarts at various times, not limited to but including the under cut against New England to steal that INT off of Brady. He is going to give up some completions to dig routes probably. Ward very well might too. They’re tough to deal with if your LBs can’t get great depth off of play action recognition, and the Chiefs aren’t great in that area. But how about the fact that all we have heard about is Garoppolo and his propensity to target the MOF? Well, if that’s the case, I would hope that this coaching staff has done their job and come up with good alignments that will hopefully force Jimmy to throw outside the numbers. Take inside leverage whenever it’s reasonably possible. I’m not saying take inside when you’re lined up over Emmanuel Sanders, flexed in tight to the formation, with the field to work with. But if you’re in the MOF, I make Jimmy attempt the harder pass and take the inside away. The deeper layers of course come into play with this cause we will need our corners to do some run defending on the perimeter. It’s just very tough. The scheme that they’re bringing is a bitch for any set of players and we have to execute, especially along the LOS, if we are to win. |
And to add to the post above, when this thing is over, I think it might be which team creates the most splash plays on defense that wins. I don’t think either offense is going to struggle a ton (unless KC jumps ahead and SF loses their run threat).
Both teams are going to take their lumps defensively IMO and from there it’s going to be about who can come up with that huge interception, that sack to force a FG, maybe even knock a fumble loose. |
Too many media fawning over defense. Sure, the 49ers defense can win against mediocre offense. But against elite offense this league favors that over D.
I'm far more worried about 49ers offense than their D. |
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Titans and Niners are WAY more alike on offense than the Niners and Rams. |
Apparently Eric Fisher told media yesterday that he didn’t feel 100% from the injury he had until the Texans game. Makes sense coming off of the bye.
He’s a huge X-factor as well. I think we all trust Schwartz to play well, but if Fisher does too, the Chiefs will score very early and very often. |
I’m ****ing rambling here but also to your Breeland point DJ, I think it’s notable that Mathieu is a huge difference maker in that area. He’s a roamer for this defense right now who somehow has the ability to take away multiple routes within one play. We’ve saw that in the last 2 games with these hi/lo concepts that he muddles up for the QB by bouncing around so much.
Even if Breeland loses that battle a few times, Mathieu very well may be waiting inside the hashes and could snatch the ball away on any given play. |
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Earlier in this thread I mentioned what his excuse will be. He was complaining about the Titans not blitzing enough and just letting Mahomes have time. Because I don’t think the 49ers are going to pressure Mahomes a ton rushing just four and Mahomes is going to make plays, he is going to again blame it on the defense giving Mahomes time. |
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I've seen enough at this point to believe they're situation dependant, same as must teams, and that our offense is efficient enough to stay out of those situations more than most and succeed when in them more than most as well. We'll score points. My concerns right now are almost exclusively with how to keep the 49ers from putting up 38 and in so doing, keeping the Chiefs offense off the field and under immense pressure. The last thing I want to see is one of those Vermiel era games where any punt or turnover feels like the end of the world. With an extra week and a very smart HC, the 49ers are going to be able to attack our weaknesses. This defense has more strengths than it's given credit for and in a regular season game I think they'd be apparent. But with a week off to scheme around our strengths and target our weaknesses, I just get a little concerned that we'll end up seeing a 'career day defense' kind of performance out there. And not because they all sucked, but because enough of them did. |
The word that keeps popping into (what remains of) my brain is, "Strategery."
Is it actually possible to wear down a pass rush? Can you force them to chase the width of the field for two quarters using jet sweeps and flat passes? Run an up-tempo offense to prevent substitutions? Will screens eventually burn their fuel pointlessly? Max protect, flood half the field, and call roll-out options and RPOs to wear them down? Does that work? FAX THE CURIOUS |
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You can effectively option him out of the gameplan if you're smart about it. Granted, Mathieu's as clever a defender as you'll find so there will be times that he can trick Grapes into seeing something that isn't there (or not seeing something that is), but that's why I worry about the extra week. Shanahan knows that Mathieu is a thing he'll need to worry about. And he'll operate accordingly. |
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Mathieu really just needs to catch the ball that will inevitably hit him in the hands. He might even get two or three of those, but he better catch at least one. |
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It's the argument I was having with guys in the Reid Appreciation Thread. Too many people wildly underestimate how hard DL's have to work to get after the passer, especially when you have a mobile QB. If you have those guys blasting upfield and you can convert a couple of 1st downs, by the 5th/6th play of the drive they're losing the starch in their legs. I think that's a big reason why the 49ers defense loses so much effectiveness when they're inside their own territory. They don't have quite the depth with Blair and some other injuries so they can't rotate quite as many as they'd like. So if you pick up a couple first downs and you're at their 35 yard line, those legs are just gonna be a little tired. Especially if you're playing with some pace and getting back up to the line quickly. On the flipside, the Chiefs are usually able to burn up secondaries by making them chase rabbits all day but that probably won't work against the 9ers zone schemes. By playing as much zone as they do, the 9er DBs will probably stay pretty fresh and I'd be surprised to see those moments that we saw against guys like Ramsey and Harris where they're reaching for oxygen masks in the 3rd quarter. But yeah, I absolutely agree with you - get those DL running. Move the pocket a little bit on 1st and 2nd down if you need to. Or better still, if Pat's doing a nice job of stepping up in the pocket, have Fisher and Schwartz send those guys running the arc behind him. You can gas a DL, especially within a drive. |
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And Spagnuolo made significant defensive adjustments to address those weaknesses. That's about they time they decided to kill the idea of "Tyrann Mathieu: Free Safety" and started using him pretty much everywhere on the field to match up as needed. And Sorensen was also reintroduced as a hybrid backer to address those problems as well. The Packers game exposed some serious flaws in our run schemes at the second level and I think the Chiefs have done a lot to address them. |
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Warren Sharp said that one of the big reasons the Chiefs should be passing early and often is because it will wear down the pass rush. Same can be said for the secondary.
They haven’t seen an offensive attack that is like this and it could result in a lot of huffing and puffing by the 2nd half. |
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It wasn't an attempt to hide it or be dishonest. You referenced multiple teams with running schemes more similar to the 49ers than the Titans. I quoted the compiled rushing stats against all those teams. As i mentoned, the 49ers have better TE/FB personnel than any of those teams, which will add another dimension to account for. But the Chiefs have been fine against the run games you say are most similar to your teams. |
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I'm sure The Heck Brigade has identified tendencies among the Needle Town's d-line. Hopefully, one of those is the proclivity for the edge rushers to take wide arcs. If so, that could play to our advantage. More steps per snap in heat and humidity leads to a weary d-end. On the other hand, if they try to contain and close quickly, we have the 1 QB in the world who can take a 24-step drop and still pick up 50 yards while making an accurate throw with velocity. If I were strategerizing the early game plan, I'm moving the pocket, flooding half the field when they're playing zone (which forces the d-backs on the other side to run further) and letting Mahomes choose the receiver with the most separation at depth. See how they defend that for a series or two then adjust to taste. FAX |
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My hope would be that we win a couple of championships and if he still isn't getting HC looks he gets bumped up into the 'Childress' role where he's an advisor and assistant HC or something. But it's gonna be damn near impossible to hold this staff together for more than 1 more season. Guys like Merritt and House will be extremely popular DC candidates. Obviously Daly will be. There are only so many chairs big enough for 'em. If the Chiefs defense has any sort of showing at all in this SB and manages to be average or better next season, we'll probably end up getting picked clean. I could see 2/3 of that staff getting snapped up. We knew when we got both House and Daly that they were steals and probably overqualified to be mere position coaches. These were always stepping stone gigs. |
Listening the AP Laboratory Pod — defensive film analyst Craig Stout says that Suggs really dominated Kittle against the run in his games as a Cardinal. I don’t think that’s terribly surprising but it is significant because that could mean both edges are closed off throughout the football game.
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Yeah ... I keep forgetting about Suggs. I don't know why ...
He's a damn monster, though. And wise. Odd combination when you think about it ... kinda like Smart Hulk. If it works out that we see a lot of Kittle vs. Sizzle matchups, I like our chances. Love them, actually. FAX |
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I'm just thinking the DC of back-to-back SB champs would get some looks... :D |
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What a quote from Jones about the defense: https://twitter.com/mattverderame/st...518820864?s=21
“pissed off and composed” Says it came from Mathieu. |
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But Daly isn't stepping down from an NFL post and House has already walked away from college DC jobs because he's trying to build an NFL resume for a coordinator gig. The hiring cycle is largely finished and unless the chiefs DL absolutely dominates this game, I can't imagine the Browns are going to alter course. |
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But man, I'm gonna be bummed the **** out if we lose this guy. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Forever ever <a href="https://t.co/qslLpQJqWZ">https://t.co/qslLpQJqWZ</a></p>— Chris Jones (@stonecoldjones_) <a href="https://twitter.com/stonecoldjones_/status/1223276841194131456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Watching him develop as a player and also learn to channel all that enthusiasm has really been a joy as a fan. Him and Kelce have matured before our eyes and I'd be awfully disappointed if he wasn't a guy we talk about 15 years from now as one of our all-timers because we couldn't afford him. PM's deal will make for some tough decisions and the rational side of me says that we can absorb Jones loss...but the fan in me really likes this kid and would miss the hell out of seeing him in red on Sundays. |
Jones is a good dude.
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A new CBA could save us and allow us to keep all these guys.
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Guys will be open all day on Sunday! |
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Maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part. This defense is just at another level when Jones is playing. |
Honest question-
Is it arguable if you look at the last 8 weeks or so of the season including playoffs that Clark Jones Honey Badger Will be the best 3 defensive players on the field Sunday? |
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Watkins is either being cut or singing a new deal that lowers his cap number to what his dead money number would be, no way around that. |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"We're pissed off and composed. That's a Tyrann Mathieu quote. Pissed off and composed. That's how this defense is. We're pissed off but we're so composed, doing our job at the highest level. But we're so damn pissed off."<br><br>- <a href="https://twitter.com/stonecoldjones_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@stonecoldjones_</a> to <a href="https://twitter.com/FanSided?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FanSided</a> on the Chiefs' defense</p>— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattVerderame/status/1223272750518820864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I still remember a quote from Reid mentioning that pressure up the middle is one of the most efficient ways to get to the QB.
I like buckner, but against a QB with awareness and shiftiness like Mahomes, he wont be nearly as effective as Jones against a dude like jimmy |
Schefter just said the Chiefs confidence is at a all time high. He said he’s never seen a team with this much confidence headed into the super bowl. He said everyone in that locker room expects to win the win the game Sunday and take the trophy back to Arrowhead.
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The NFL isn't designed to let you pay at the top of the market for guys at 6 different positions. We'd have a high end QB, WR, TE, DE, DT and S at that point, not to mention LT and RT that are near the high end of their respective positions. Ultimately the league simply doesn't want teams doing that. They look to reallocate talent as best they can and when you see how many teams out there have comical cap flexibility over the next 2-3 seasons, it's just a nightmare. At some point something is going to have to give. And frankly it will probably be multiple somethings. I get that there will be a lot of teams with space that SUCK and it's hard to talk yourself into playing for them. But we're not talking about good players who have a choice to take a little less to play for KC. We're talking about guys who very clearly deserve to be among the highest paid guys in the league at their respective positions. In a game where you really only get one massive contract most of the time and maybe 4-5 years of peak earning potential. At some point even a 'discount' yields more than we can reasonably afford. |
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