Yes. Harris was not worse than Witherspoon in coverage, but a much better tackler and much better in run support. He won't be given the toughest covers.

All of that is true. Sherman is most effective when the 49er pass rush is effective. He seems to know when to keep his eyes on a QB under pressure. It sometimes gets him burned when he is late to turn and cover, but it has allowed him to make a couple of interceptions this season.

But all of our guys are tough covers

So it sounds like you think he’s going to be responsible for the short zone (hook, flats) and not deep cover 3 responsibilities?

Honestly is probably more critical against KC than the deep third responsibility.

Do you have a link, my friend?

That's my guess. He's got decent anticipation and good tackling skills to prevent YAC. Tartt and Ward will have deep duties.

PFFs grader has Jimmy Ward as better than Mathieu.

So yeah, PFF is full of shit.

It's just so weird to me that they're seen as objective when their model comes down to a 'data scientist' who is essentially Clay grading snaps for them. It's as subjective as you or I grading reps.

It's still just as prone to the 49ers guy grading easier than the Chiefs guy as anything.

Honestly, I'd trust Clay over PFF. Some of the grades PFF comes up with is pure WTF.

IN prior years, most 49er fans would have agreed with you. Many were scratching their heads as to why management stuck with Ward. This year? He's been pretty good. Pro Bowl alternate good. Better than Mathieu? I dunno about that, but Ward's not chopped liver.

Pro bowl alternate guys!!!!!

Here’s the link

https://youtu.be/Xqkg9KUXJks

STOP REPLYING TO THE TROLLS AND THEY WILL GO AWAY

I’ve been saying throughout this entire thread that our pass rush will be a bigger problem for them than theirs will be for us. Here is just more evidence of this.

This is a somewhat lengthy pod but a good listen: https://twitter.com/adamlefkoe/statu...498086400?s=21

It’s Warren Sharp and Adam Lefkoe talking about the game in great detail with the added element of Sharp’s analytical system.

Sharp says that the SF defense is being greatly overrated and he goes into supreme detail as to why, including why KC is a very dangerous matchup for them. Beyond anything I could type up here — but I’ll add a couple of details.

- Apparently SF has never played an offense that uses anywhere close to as much motion as KC (by the numbers). Their pass defense has had much lower success rates against motions when they have seen them.

- DJ will like the line in there about how SFs pass rush productivity is league average on 1st and 2nd down, but the best in the league on 3rd down.

- He says that 11 personnel is SFs biggest issue and they are worst in the NFL in success rate against 11 inside the red zone. The Niners in general have one of the worst RZ rates as a defense in general, per Sharp’s data.

- 49ers defense came in dead last among the 12 playoff teams in terms of defensive success rate against play action.

- Big picture: 49ers defense is totally reliant on getting 3rd down sacks based on Sharp’s data. Sharp says just stay aggressive if you’re KC, pass and pass some more, and avoid those 3rd and longs.

On the flip side.... they do seem to expect a lot of points in this game, even from SF.

- He sees Garoppolo in a much better light than the media perception.

- Chiefs defense had the worst run defense success rate against run plays that had pre-snap motion. Chiefs defense is also rated out badly against play action.

- Chiefs defense is the #2 pass rushing defense on 3rd down (behind SF).

- Chiefs defense 5th worst against 21 personnel, 49ers use it frequently.

- Chiefs defense is very good on early downs with cover 3, but Garoppolo has been equally good against it on early downs.

**** off, We're about to put Pat on a Vegan diet. On Sunday,He's going to eat a lot of Grass.

Sure

Sharp is high on Jimmy G? He also thinks Lamar is a good passer so there’s that.

Sorry, but anybody trying to tell me Jimmy G is good isn’t even worth listening to.

The big takeaway from his stuff was to expect a shootout, we’ll see.

If both schemes are in a good spot offensively I’m obviously placing my faith in the better QB.

Now that you mention the Lamar thing though, it makes sense. Sharp is using pure analytics, not seeing actual passes.

The 49ers pass offense is very efficient, like Baltimore’s was, because of how well they run the ball.

If KC jumps ahead at any time or limits their running game from the start, Jimmy loses the benefit of that unpredictability and his performance will suffer.

Meanwhile, he’s basically suggesting that KC just needs to throw it all over the field and well, they’re going to do that regardless of what is going on in the game.

Exactly what I was thinking. He clearly isn’t a football guy, more of a stats guy. Shanahan doesn’t even trust Jimmy G right now.

ROFL
LMAO

You talk a good game, sister.

You've been woke for 6 straight days.

Thanks for posting that podcast:thumb:
I had know clue we were that bad against the pass in the red zone... Robert saleh is going to have to tighten things up defensively if we expect to Win.

This game is going to be Epic!

You got me confused with SeXfactor...

Yeah, if that's been the trend for 3+ games that's not something you can fix in one week. When the Chiefs went down 24-0 I knew it wasn't that big of a problem because HOU was the worst RZ defense in the league, allowing TDs about 75% of the time.

Meanwhile the Chiefs were scoring TDs about 66% of the time when they got into the RZ, and that included when Pat was out and we were starting Moore.

And shocker, every drive we had that got into the RZ ended in a TD.

HOU knew damn well they were terrible in the RZ, and couldn't do a thing about it.

TEN was second-worst in the league in the RZ, and of course we took them to the woodshed as well. They tried everything to keep us out of the RZ, but once we got in there, it was over.

Btw, last year when our offense was healthy for the year, we scored TDs in the RZ about 73% of the time.

Now our offense is finally healthy and have had a few hundred snaps together to gel.

So every time we get into the RZ against SF, don't be surprised when we score TDs, not FGs.

I was curious about that motion stat. So many of chiefs stats are skewed badly by our disastrous first half of the season on defense. I wonder how that's looked since we've improved. Bill Barnwell also has a really comprehensive look at the 49ers. He talked about how our DL rotations could be tricky. It was easy to swap Pennel and Chris jones based on which rb was in the game. We can't do that vs the 49ers.

I was also looking at the history of spags vs Kyle Shanahan. It's really bad. But interestingly enough, I don't think he's ever faced Shanahan with good personnel. Shanahan has always faced a spags defense that's been ranked toward the bottom.

Our defense is starting to make me a little nervous. But as Ray Lewis said and I buy this, landlord is a big time x factor. He points out that when garopolo throws he very often goes to the middle of the field. Because it's super safe. That's the type of qb Mathieu can play head games with.

I think our D will have tough sledding. But they'll do just enough to help our offense win.

I think Chris Jones is going to take a handoff from Jimmy Crapalolol.

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/3oFzmkkwfOGlzZ0gxi" width="480" height="270" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/breaking-bad-walter-white-youre-goddamn-right-3oFzmkkwfOGlzZ0gxi">via GIPHY</a></p>

The best way to view it is think about all the injuries for the KC offense this season. Think about how bad the defense was in the 2018 season. Imagine the 2018 defense mixed with the injured offense this year. Would the team have made the playoffs in this scenario? The defense stepped up pretty big down the later stretch of this season and they're a big part of why the team made it to a Super Bowl. A win would be amazing, but just getting there was already a hell of a season.

SF had literally no answer for Jared Cook until he got a concussion. Kelce should be able to have a huge game and force that defense to overcompensate to stop him. That should open up lots of opportunities for Sammy Watkins to work in space.

Belldozer (very good blocker) and Schwartz should be able to completely neutralize Ford. Fisher should be able to match up well with Bosa after facing his brother a few times....possibly needing help from Wis and a back to buy Mahomes more time. I just really think our OL is going to play the best game of the year Sunday. They know they need to for us to win this Superbowl. (That still sounds surreal to say)

Andy having 2 weeks to prepare should have lots of stuff planned to exploit SFs difficulty in facing mobile QBs and slow their pass rush with the screen and misdirection game. Taking the top off with Tyreek should also keep SFs defense on their heels and over the course of the game will frustrate them. I expect to see a couple times when they throw their hands up like “what was I supposed to do” like we’ve seen many times before.

Honey Landlord will impact the middle area of the field Garrapolo likes to throw into. We should be able to double Kittle with a linebacker and Tyrann. As Garrapolo looks past that option (possibly after forcing a pass to him that gets intercepted) our guys should be able to step down to the RBs out of the backfield. Them passing to the backs and Deebo is a concern, though. Those guys can fly and our defenses weakness is the LBs covering speed out of the backfield.

The DL will stonewall their running game exactly how they shit down Tennessee’s throats. I expect them to play out of their minds and for Jones to have a huge game For a payday.

This real? LMAO

No it’s fake but Tyrann did say that to a random poster though about a month ago lol

I so much wanted that to be real.

The rule is that the outside guy's shoulder can't be further back than the inside guy's waistline (or something like that). It was close but not so bad it usually gets called.

Interesting take by Pat McAfee concerning the Chiefs OL and how much they will effect the outcome of the game:

<iframe width="853" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IPPeqm1kdGw" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Patrick Mahomes is Spider-Man and the Chiefs are &quot;far from home&quot; vs. the 49ers ��<br><br>Special two-minute episode of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GridironHeights?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GridironHeights</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/StateFarm?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@statefarm</a>) <a href="https://t.co/nPmQT9Irvw">pic.twitter.com/nPmQT9Irvw</a></p>&mdash; Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) <a href="https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1223018051542638593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 30, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

He is also the very worst QB in the NFL at throwing to the outside...

As the season progressed and the players became more familiar with Spags system..he was able to adapt to their individual strengths. He was also able to start creatively disguising the coverages pre-snap.

It'll be interesting if the 49ers get in passing situations...if the Chiefs crowd the middle of the field and bait Grape-boy into an INT or force him to throw outside..where he is not very good.

I think this is one of the keys to beating them...

I'm not really that worried about their run game...KC has had two weeks of watching the Packers film. They ran a LOT that game. If they can shut down Henry...when NE and Baltimore couldn't...I think they can stop it just enough to force a few punts.

49ers have not been good in their 2nd half adjustments...both Seattle and Green Bay staged comebacks. They also have not be as effective against QB's with similar mobility...and definitely haven played anyone with his arm strength. I like Reid with 2 weeks to prepare...KC has outscored their opponents 37-14 in the 2nd half this post-season.

Sherman is going to require help to handle Hill's speed...and he usually is lined up on one side of the field. I think Andy is going to have a handful of plays to exploit Tyreek deliberately drawing double coverage to Richard's side (decoy). Watkins could have another good game..

Will Mahomes be the same guy under the bright lights of the superbowl with all the pressure on him vs an insanely good defense who's motivated and healthy? This is a big question that Chiefs fans should be worried about because If he's off his game I don't se the Chiefs pulling this out.

PMII, has proven he is impervious to wilting under pressure.

Though you are praying that he does.

Hahaha, obviously you haven’t been watching Pat Mahomes play very much in the last two years. But just so you know, Mahomes has actually performed at higher levels in big games. Every single time. If you want more information, there’s actually a couple of pretty good mini documentaries on YouTube about how Patrick always rises to the occasion and takes his performances to even higher levels under the bright lights and has since he first played sports.

So you’ll have that to look forward to.

Mahomes has never lost an NFL game by more than 7pts. Pinning your hopes on his inability to perform on a big stage seems rather fanciful.

I don’t know about you, but to me what it sounded like was desperation and fear. This one is on the verge of pissing himself just thinking about Patrick Mahomes coming out and just doing “Mahomes.“

SF's best chance is Mahomes comes out a little too pumped and overthrows some guys, then by the end when he gets in a groove he can't quite dig out of the hole.

Early in big games is the only times I've seen Mahomes not on his game. Dude has the clutch gene more than anyone since Montana.

Mahomes has had big time plays in every post-season game he's played....11 TD and 0 INT. Seven straight TD drives in a single game. Grape-fondles has thrown for 200 yards in his illustrious post-season career.

Your boy is way more likely to wilt under the pressure...

49ers rely more on the run now and still give up more sacks


It's so nice having 2 good OTs with Fisher and Schwartz. Allows Kelce to run go out in pass routes whenever we choose, the defense doesn't dictate we do.

Everyone also thinks that SF is just going to run all over the field against KC. Only thing is that KCs offense is so good that they force teams to change their game plan. The Ravens made uncharacteristic changes early in the year. O’Brien tried a fake punt on his side of the field because he didn’t want us getting the ball. The Titans who made the AFCCG on the legs of Henry abandoned the run in the 2nd half even though the game was still close. Those are just a few examples that quickly come to mind.

This team alters what the other teams do which is why I won’t be shocked if they try and win on the arm of Jimmy G which is a very poor idea.

they're the ultimate gut-check.

If you waste a couple of possessions, you might be totally screwed.

That's why The Titans abandoned the run; the last two possessions they tried to run Henry were diminishing returns. He looked okay early, then it was small gains and a punt, then it was STONED HIM and a punt. That's two possessions and Mahomes had gotten hot.

Witherspoon gave up 6 red zone TDs in a 3 week period before getting benched. Mosley cleaned that up immediately.

Sharp's 1 hour analysis was amazing but some stats need context.
Like the guy in the podcast mentioned, the problem with stats and analytics in the NFL are the small sample sizes.

Not dissimilar to the Chiefs run D being drastically different once Mike Pennel was added for Kansas City.

That Chiefs #26 run D is way different with Pennel on the field. Moves from bottom five
to middle of the pack (and better if you include the playoffs, two games against top 10 rushing offenses).

They throw to the middle of the field so much because that's where the most RAC happens and because our wide zone running game moves defenders laterally.

It's impossible to "crowd the middle of the field" and defend the outside run. Our slowest RB, Tevin Coleman, runs a 4.40 40.

Green Bay sat on every slant, every DIG route, and played a bear front but couldn't stop the outside run because of it. Their corners, safeties, and linebackers were constantly getting pinned inside.

Addendum: In most defenses, especially against condensed sets, the DBs and linebackers have run and pass responsibilities so it's impossible to play both the outside run and the inside pass. That's why RPOs work so well.

True although I think he was a lot better this year compared to 2018 on the early game situations. His teammates can easily dig a hole without him. See the two playoff games. Both were a result of WR drops, bad defense, and bad special teams.

Chiefs stopped Derrick Henry from their base 4-3 and nickel packages. They won't run a 'bear front' against SF.

Some folks around the league get it

SF by 28.

You what?


LOL.


yeah, whatever.

I mean, you want to pick against the Chiefs that's fine, but they've never lost by more than one score in two ****ing years and you've got 'em losing by 4 ****ing touchdowns?

get the **** out of here with that shit.

The Packers also have a much different and lighter DL. They played the Bear front, squeezing five guys between the tackles, out of necessity. Kansas City is bigger and sturdier up front, both inside and on the edges.

They may play the OLB up when they’re on the field, similar to what New England did to the Rams last year, but I expect the DEs to line up on the outside shoulder of the tackles, with the LB beyond that.

That approach gives them more options for crowding the middle.

And on passing downs, when they happen, there’s obviously less focus on the zone run,
So it becomes easier to squeeze the middle then.

In a regular season game? Sure, in the Super Bowl? No way.

worst take candidate.

There's literally no ****in' way.

Ah yes, the Packers troll finally mustered the courage to crawl out from under his bridge after getting embarrassed by a QB who threw 8 passes.

The Packers D in that game would make Bob Sutton blush.

Maybe Mahomie will get another untouched TD run?

So you're expecting a wide-9 style look or 6-1 look that the Pats ran against the Rams?

I'd be surprised to see much of the wide-9 because it's basically daring us to run.

Probably, he's just that ****ing good

I am really interested to see how the KC front 7 matches up with the Niners. I think our size at Dline and depth in that position group will ensure we're not outmatched physically, but do worry about our speed at linebacker. Those guys are going to have run horizontally more than they did against Tennessee. Hitchens, Wilson, Ragland, Niemann, O'Daniel - whoever is on the field, they're going to need to consistently diagnose plays early to beat the blocks of Juszczyk and Kittle.

where did you get that from his comment? That's literally the opposite of what he said.

I get it man. That must really suck to have wasted a generational talent at QB and only gotten one SB out of his entire career.

That's not how it's going here.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Caught dan studying earlier this AM. Thought I’d share. Always appreciate the lil things your teammates / co workers do, aint no i in team &amp; once you realize it take small efforts, that add up. You know you on good team. <a href="https://t.co/5PycxYj7Xv">pic.twitter.com/5PycxYj7Xv</a></p>&mdash; Tyrann Mathieu (@Mathieu_Era) <a href="https://twitter.com/Mathieu_Era/status/1223241628552482816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

He won’t need it.

This is the final act of desperation before ultimate acceptance of inevitable, humiliating destruction: The 49er game plan is to cross your fingers and hope the other team's transcendent player, who has *repeatedly* brought his team back from certain demise, will finally choke away a game.

We aren’t the Packers, dummy. And this isn’t Aaron Rodgers taking the snaps.

Your team was charmin soft and we can say that because we’ve seen that over the years lately. The Chiefs aren’t that anymore.

Yeah, because there was no pressure down 24-0 against Houston.

And no pressure down 10-0 against the Titans with Derrick Henry on a historic run through the play-offs. I mean, none at all.

Lame.

Essentially, most people are taking SF solely based off their pass rush.

We've heard this narrative before last year when KC had the top pass rush in the league and everyone hyped up our defensive line.

We got ZERO sacks against Brady in the AFCCG.

Then can you specifically state what configuration you expect them to be in? When you say "similar to what NE did against the Rams", that's the 6-1.

The Packers didn't put 5 guys between the tackles. They put 3 guys over the center and guards then had the Smith's linedup outside of the tackles or even sometimes outside of the TE. So I assumie you didn't mean the same configuration, right?

That Packers formation basically created a huge alley outside of the DE but between the LB. When the LB tried to adjust to fill that alley, space was created outside.

Jonnydel does a great job of showing the scheme here:
youtu.be/OrPj-QukWpQ

JT O'Sullivan's QB school did a long breakdown of every run play that's excellent as well.

I can't wait for Dee Ford to cement his legacy as this year's Leon lett. Will the NFL enforce it? Because I've seen a ton of still frames where the dude still regularly lines up outside. Not jumping offsides. Lines up offsides.

When we're up 28 in the fourth, Reid will dial up a fake tight end screen to Blake Bell, who then throws a TD pass to Kelce. It'll be a TE to TE play. Like this one the Patriots have ran so often with Edelman.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">3 years ago tonight, Julian Edelman threw a touchdown pass to Danny Amendola in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs against the Ravens. The rest was history <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patriots?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Patriots</a> <a href="https://t.co/M4iAUjBcVr">pic.twitter.com/M4iAUjBcVr</a></p>&mdash; Binge Sports (@BingeSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/BingeSports/status/951187936061599745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wide-9 usually is a touch wider than that alignment, and the DEs go Dee Ford (blast uphill with no concern about anything else).

Clark and Suggs will be tasked with setting the edge and being disciplined, so that’s different.

I don’t know that they’ll walk the LB up. I expect they’ll come out in the basic front they used against Tennessee and adjust from that, if needed. Walking the LB up might be one of those adjustments.

San Francisco might adjust by calling more inside runs than outside zone, but that probably is more preferable to KC because it doesn’t hit the weakness of its defense (second-level speed) as much.

I understand what the Packers tried to do.

I also understand what the Pats did.

I ALSO understand what the Chiefs did just 10 days ago. If they didn't stack the box against the Titans, they won't do it against the 49'ers. The Titans run basically the same blocking schemes, though the 49'ers have more speed and use a lot of misdirection. If we could handle the physicality of Tennessee, with their huge, mauling line and 250 pound Derrick Henry, then it makes no sense at all that we would try to beef up the box more against the 49'ers, leaving ourselves open to the off-tackle outside runs.

They made a statement against Tennessee that we were going to do what we do, and make you beat it. I expect they'll do the same this week. We'll stay in our rush lanes, we'll contain outside with our DE's, we'll clog the middle with our hungry pigs, and flow to the ball. We'll play disciplined, tough football just like we have for the last 8 games.

We're going to force Jimmy G. to beat us. Maybe you feel like he can; and perhaps you'll be right.

But I doubt it.

If you think you guys are just going to run roughshod over us as if we were Green Bay or Minnesota, you're mistaken.

Can’t wait till Sunday!!!!

Never have I ever felt more excited to play a game that we’ll lose by 30!!!


Lesssssssssssss Goooooooooooo!!!!!

I'd be surprised if we got a ton of sacks.

I think the 49ers offense beats up on the Chiefs D. The 49ers D goes wide-9 with two safeties deep nearly the entire game and dare the Chiefs to run it.

Spoiler alert: the Chiefs will not run it.