Quick! Do DeAnthony Thomas!

You take Brown's career, I'll take DATs. Which one do you really think he'll be closer to?

Posting what I did in the draft forum. I really think this is our Nick Bolton pick and it will turn out that way. Not a super high ceiling prospect but very high floor with a few high ceiling traits.

Willie Gay was a high ceiling athlete that needed to figure out things out and Bolton came in and changed games. I think you’ll see that for Skyy Moore in comparison to Mecole Hardman.

For the record,

MAC receivers drafted in the first three rounds over the last fifteen years:

Skyy Moore (KC)
Corey Davis (tenn)
Diontae Johnson (pitt)
kenny Golladay (det)
Dri Archer (pitt)
Greg Jennings (GB)
Taylor Price (NE)
Darius Watts (Den)
Randy Moss (Min)

Looking at this, the odds are in favor of Skyy Moore being worth it. (fun fact, Pittsburgh loves MAC receivers.)

If you want to add some other wrinkles, here is every MAC player drafted in the first round since Moss:



If anything, the talent it takes to get drafted out of the MAC seems to be a pretty damn good indicator of sufficient ability to succeed in the NFL.

I watched and read a lot about Skyy leading up to the draft and think his best comp (in my view) is Wes Welker.

Best in slot but can play outside.
Can return punts and kickoffs (Veach said this would be part of his initial role in KC)
Elite quicks
Elite acceleration
Smaller in stature
Not a deep threat, but has the speed to be.
Very reliable hands
Good vision on adjustable routes
Smart

Skyy is bigger, but comparable.

Well I just proved to you that MAC receivers taken in the first three rounds NOT succeeding is the outlier.

So there.

Because few MAC receivers are taken in the first three rounds.

This is textbook selection bias.

What traits do you see Skyy exhibiting that cause you to feel “this kid isn’t going to make it in the NFL”?

IT'S THE ENTIRE DATA SET.

You just don't want to admit you're wrong. Try it. It feels good.

"Oh wow... that data disproves my theory. I guess I'm going to bed smarter than I woke up. What a successful day."

The small amount of data isn't really telling us much because there isn't much of it.

THAT'S THE POINT YOU ****TWAT

It happens so rarely that it only happens for a reason.

Golden Tate has similar measurements as well.

Oklahoma State RB's that are converted to WR's in the NFL hit at a high percentage.

Fair enough, but it doesn't hurt to be on Championship teams. 4 of them.

I am excited to see what 2Y does in this offense. I have come around on his fit with the offense.

But, I am still frustrated with the fact that, for whatever reason, we seem averse to tall receivers. Reid has watched our defensive backs get abused by tall receivers, but for some reason doesn't want a tall receiver.

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We signed MVS. We also just signed UDFA Justyn Ross. JuJu isn’t overly tall, but he’s a big guy. Josh Gordon. Daurice Fountain.

There's little chance he's Thomas. He's already a far better athlete, far more more polished route runner,.

I preferred several; Watson, Pickens,Metchie-even Pierce. Looking not very closely, I didn't get all the Moore live pre-draft. Looking closer, I get why they liked him.

I'm not giving up on Corey Coleman either.

https://youtu.be/hssRGrOxOqg

Great game to watch.

12 catches for 206 yard and 4 TDs.

The crazy thing is that he could’ve had more. A couple better throws and he could’ve had 230+ yards and 5 TDs.

Me too, now, and I am excited to see what he does with Mahomes.

But, are we forever locked into sub 6' receivers because they "fit" the offense?

How in TF does a receiver who runs in the 4.3s not fit this offense with Mahomes just because he is 6'4"? I don't understand.

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And Watson wasn’t even on the board at 50 or 54. What are you talking about?

I've never been a "big jump ball WR" guy.

6 foot athletes that can get open. Give me those all day.

Talking about pick 30, which isn't really a reach for him, as he went at pick 34. Then we could have drafted Cameron Thomas at DE.

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I don't think we're locked into anything but good football players. I think that's the point of the first three rounds worth of picks.

You're arguing Watson over Karlaftis?

****. That. Shit.

After watching all those drops and tipped passes resulting in picks last year, not sure why anyone would advocate for Watson over Moore

I'm really interested to see how Watson does in Green Bay. Very high bust potential because he's so raw, but he's in a great landing spot in that offense.

Nothing.

I think he'll be a fine player. 6-8 years in the league. 400ish catches for 4000-5000K yards. He'll be better than many taken before him and most taken after him. He's a fine player with no standout flaws.

He simply has no significant strengths, a very low ceiling and little in the way of projectable upside. He's a 'safe' pick in a draft we absolutely loaded with safe picks. There are good arguments in favor of that approach, many of which I actually agree with.

He's fine.

He ain't Antonio Brown and he isn't gonna be.

It's a data set you selected, chief. It's no different than the folks that argue that concussions occur at a lower rate in the NFL than they do in college and High School. Which may be correct in a vacuum but it's correct because the people who are more prone to concussions were culled from the data set IN high school and college after they got their brains scrambled and couldn't keep playing anymore. Your data set there becomes self-selecting because it's eliminated the high risk candidates.

You did the same thing. You culled the data set to include like the 8 most successful MAC receivers of the last quarter century and then expect me to think it means anything. It doesn't.

It's selection bias. That's it. And you know how easy it is to pick apart something like this (hence the reason you shouldn't try it or pay attention when someone does?) Watch this:

Corey Davis -- 1st WR selected in his class
Diontae Johnson -- 10th WR selected in his class
Kenny Golladay -- 12th
Dri Archer -- 16th
Greg Jennings -- 4th
Taylor Price -- 13th
Darius Watts -- 9th
Randy Moss -- 2nd

"NO WR FROM THE MAC TO EVER BE SELECTED AS LATE IN HIS DRAFT GROUP AS SKYY MOORE HAS EVER HAD A SUCCESSFUL NFL CAREER!!!! ADMIT YOU'RE WRONG! CONFESS!!!!!!!"

{fart noises}

Who gives a shit about your arbitrary endpoints? WRs don't get drafted out of the MAC with any regularity. And they don't because it's not a very good conference and doesn't turn out many good ones. As to what you think you got right here (or I got wrong) -- um...no idea what you're babbling on about.

But that's the thing - he isn't. There's nothing to support that other than some tape of him running past MAC defensive backs. Wanna go pull up the DaT draft thread? I goddamn HATED that pick. Loathed it - it inspired one of the most volcanic reactions I've had on this board. And I was nearly universally castigated for it because DeAnthony was 'a dynamic athlete and home run hitter on a team that needs playmakers. He's the next Darren Sproles!' Sound familiar?

Moore is fine athlete; pretty average for an NFL wide receiver. And when combined with his small stature and inexperience vs. complex defenses (he rarely even faced matchup zone type coverages), he's just not a special prospect. And I don't see anything to indicate he'll be much more than an average NFL player.

If he's Golden Tate, Veach absolutely crushed with that pick. If he's Antonio Brown I will suck your dick. And when the rubber hits the road, to be closer to Brown than DAT, he'd need to go for 432 receptions for 5,900 yards and 40 touchdowns over the course of his career. Essentially 54 catches for 740 yards and 5 scores/season for the next 8 seasons. That a gamble you're really comfortable making? Kenny Golladay won't have that kind of career. Corey Davis almost certainly won't. Diontae Johnson might, Greg Jennings did. And as noted above, Greg Jennings was the 4th receiver selected in his draft; not the 13th.

So how confident are you that Skyy Moore can be Diontae Johnson? Because that's the likely bar to get even halfway there.

I think Sterling Shepard is a fair comp for Moore, just as far as abilities go. Moore has some really sharp cuts and breaks on his routes.

A big difference is that Patrick Mahomes will be throwing him the ball, not Daniel Jones. And Andy Reid will be designing his routes, not...Jason Garrett...from last year anyway.

Jamar Chase says hi.gh

I think that's pretty fair as well. I think Shepard came to the league more pro-ready, but I don't think that's Moore's fault. He just didn't play teams that would throw much at them defensively so he never really got a feel for playing against disguised looks, zones, etc....

Shepard was by no means an expert, but he was more advanced in that regard than Moore will be, IMO.

And really, Shepards numbers aren't far at all from what I said would be a reasonable expectation for Moore's 1st year results. I could see Moore having a very similar role as well.

Ja'Marr Chase IS a 6 ft athlete that gets open.

And he can also high-point a ball.

He's not Mike Evans out there jumping over guys in his hip pocket instead of creating space. He simply does everything.

I'm not sure this is the own you think it is.

Give me a guy that gets open. Jump balls generally mean you're covered.

I think it was staylor that made a comp for Diontae Johnson bc they are quite similar types of players.

Skyy is an inch shorter but his vert is 1 inch higher than Johnson so it kinda evens out. He’s also significantly faster. 4.41 with a 1.46 10 yard time compared to 4.53? Yeah that’s a step and a half faster.

If this team gets a faster version of Johnson I’d be thrilled

Or shitty QB

He’s only been a WR for less than 3 seasons, didn’t know he would be playing WR till he arrived at his first practice. He was a RB previously. Sound familiar?

His coaching hasn’t been great now he has Andy…the best offense mind in the sport

His QB hasn’t been great now he has the GOAT throwing to him.

His testing was borderline elite.

His hands are elite.

I don’t understand why people label him low upside when I see the exact opposite…

What do you see that makes you think “low ceiling”?

Hit the wrong thread. Too many irons on the fire at the moment but I think this deserves a dupe:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The moment Skyy Moore found out he&#39;d get to catch passes from <a href="https://twitter.com/PatrickMahomes?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PatrickMahomes</a> �� <a href="https://t.co/ttGG4aF0hG">pic.twitter.com/ttGG4aF0hG</a></p>&mdash; Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href="https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1520877722523873281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

"Passes from Patrick" has certain ring if anyone is looking for a new username.

.

I've spent the better part of a month going over that. I'm disinclined to rehash it at this point. The argument is just tiresome and whatever answer I give is going to be met with "BUT!!!" and some degree of disbelief and/or outrage.

I've spent weeks trying to talk myself into this kid - hasn't worked. Spent the same number of weeks explaining why it hasn't worked to others - hasn't caught on. Nobody's having a Perry Mason moment where we shriek that we've learned the errors of our ways at this point.

Remember back when I said the only way to use outliers to address a point was when said point was argued in absolutes? Then pointed out how absurd that was? And made a mockery of your argument by making a knowingly ridiculous counterpoint built off same that was stated in absolutes (in all caps no less, in case you were missing what I was up to) then responded to my own counterpoint with fart noises?

Did all of this escape you?

I feel like it escaped you.

But hey - keep on keepin' on, buddy.

Who did you like after the big 5? Bc it seems like those 5 were your high ceiling ass kickers but they got scooped up way too fast.
I think you’ll agree that it would have been foolish to trade a kings ransom to get one of them.

I wasn’t a fan of Pierce and Pickens I liked but didn’t love. Seems like this years WR class was really too heavy but died off fast in early rd 2. Not as strONG as years past.

I loved Dyami Brown who seemed like a great fit last year but we passed for Bolton. I don’t think we’re done here. I think they’ll be getting a WR with a higher ceiling in the next draft

At 50? Pickens was the only guy I think I'd have been happy to gamble on there. At least I'm pretty sure that's where I drew my cutoff pre-draft. I think lost in the 'character' stuff is that Pickens may actually have been the best pure route runner in the class. From a pure talent perspective, there's nothing Pickens didn't have. But he clearly didn't impress the staff in the top 30 visit or they wouldn't have risked the trade down. And that trade down got us Kinnard. So there's that.

But when that happened and Pickens went at 53, at 54 I'd have gone with Drake Jackson or Sam Williams and then Tolbert at 63.

Why is De'Anthony Thomas even in this conversation?

The clear cutoff for NFL success at WR is 5'9". It's so extremely rare that a receiver under 5'9" does much of anything whatsoever in the NFL, regardless of speed, that it's not even worth talking about. There's like one, in history, and that's Wes Welker.

Not only that, if you don't think Moore has the ability to surpass 65 career receptions for 509 yards and 4 TDs then you're high as a kite.

Moore isn't comparable to DAT. He's not even in the conversation.

Because Antonio Brown is in the conversation. And again, I think there’s a better chance he ends up closer to Thomas’s career numbers than Brown.

And because DAT is one inch shorter than Moore while also being built extremely similarly and having near identical athletic profiles.

You can act as though a single inch is the right line between success and failure among WR prospects if you’d like, but you know that’s just another arbitrary line of distinction. The league is LITTERED with guys like Moore that just never made it and yes, he’s closer to Deanthony Thomas as an extreme example of his floor than he is Antonio Brown as his ceiling.

I'm not acting like it's the line, it is the line. Time tested, mother approved.

And yes, I absolutely think Moore is capable of being closer Brown than DAT. That puts him on par with Randall Cobb as a minimum bar to set. That's very much reasonable to aspire to for him. Much more reasonable than DAT.

The league is littered with even more of the Jalen Tolberts and George Pickens that never made it. And you can count on 1 hand the number of guys like Calvin Austin, who you love, that have ever done anything in the NFL.

We should both see the product on the field before either of us make gross overstatements like DAT or Brown because the chances he's near either end of the spectrum are slim.

Skyy Moore is already better than Mecole Hardman.

DAT also high as a kite.

https://media4.giphy.com/media/LSvB8...dXf1/giphy.gif


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RGR also liked Cameron Thomas better than Karlaftis.

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Dude. No ****ing way, unless the kid gets hurt. Watch the route running. Watch the quick acceleration. With Andy Reid and Mahomes, this kid is, at minimum, a productive slot.

Veach when he sees Corey Coleman at camp:



https://i.pinimg.com/originals/85/19...0f197b8710.jpg

ROFL

There was some insanely good burns in that movie.

:rolleyes:

RGR sucks. Their show/podcast/whatever is boring as hell

He isn't the only draft evaluator who didn't like Karlaftis in the 1st round. But, no one really knows how players are going to pan out, and that's the truth.

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I'm not a fan of Karlaftis but I'm hoping to be surprised. None of spags "type" of DE or DT has panned out at all. I'd rather the Chiefs gone for a traditional pass rusher than a strong guy that can push the pocket. Spags has been very underwhelming.

That being said, the only rookie that may play much this year on D is the CB. Spags hates rookies.

I honestly can't believe people are making the DAT comparison. I heard it on one of the Chiefs podcasts too and my jaw went agape. DAT was a true gadget player that straddled RB and WR while Moore is a professional WR.

Moore may not succeed but the idea that a close career comparison is DAT is way off base.

The problem is this: Drafted WR from the MAC are outliers for all WR from the MAC. However, UNSUCCESSFUL DRAFTED WR from the MAC are OUTLIERS IN THAT GROUP.

You're just arguing any way you can that Skyy Moore was a bad pick and won't be good. If you believe that, then fine. But don't act like there is any evidence out there that supports your opinion. Just have your opinion and stand by it.

It was DJ's Left Nut making that comparison, which was ridiculous to the point of not deserving response.

Yeah hand catchers are always superior in that aspect.


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I will say, one thing that concerns me and it barely even does... He has a double learning curve of playing against better competition (versus any major conference), of learning routes outside of RPO on top of learning Andy reids difficult offense.

So it'll take some time. I don't know how much he will actually contribute year 1 if we're being realistic

Well yeah, I would expect he'll begin as a returner, and have a package of plays on offense. That package of plays will probably expand as the year goes on. He's not a day one starter with 3 vets in front of him.

I’m not arguing that big guy.

Again - I feel like you’re missing things along the way here.

I am an admitted optimist. I see the potential possibilities and I trust this staff to get it. Some people become so locked in on individuals THEY wanted they cannot move on, and still others lock into some particular metric or measuring stick that they personally feel is some magic 8 ball in predicting a player's production.I think there's too much of both, and that this part of the off-season is about dreaming of what could be a little bit. There's plenty of reality to deal with when it comes. Until then, none of you ****ers are going to shit in my cheerios.

This is kind of funny because Tyreek Hill is definitely in the 5'8" range.

It's kinda funny to watch how opinions get raked over and changed to fit an argument here.

I don't believe Dj has ever said he doesn't think Sky will be a good player. I dont' wanna put words in his mouth, but it seems he feels he's more capped physically and has a lower ceiling than he'd like a 2nd round WR to have.

I'm not in agreement because I think most 2nd round picks are gonna eventually flame out and not do much in the league cause that's what usually happens, so if he's a good solid player at WR, perfect.

If he has the occasional 1k yard season, but hoovers right around 800 per season with a couple touchdowns, I'd say that's a big success.

He's listed as 5' 10". CEH on the other hand is 5' 8" and it definitely shows anytime he stands next to anyone.

3rd and Skyy!

Mecole Hardman is also listed at 5'10" and I've seen plenty of videos/pictures of them side-by-side where Mecole's definitely got an inch or two on Tyreek.

I don't pretend to know for sure or anything. Maybe Tyreek slouches or something, but it certainly appears that he is a fair bit shorter than the listed 5'10".

5’ 8 1/8” at his pro day.

Everyone else "can he be a #1 WR etc"


Me "he's a second round pick, if he has the career of Manny Saunders its an absolute home run pick"

I’m warming up to this pick.

Just have a sure-handed pass catcher is big to me. All those damn drops last year were killers.

Thank god we didn’t draft Watson.

Ah, thank you. I didn't even care enough to check into it, but that tracks. In most pics and vids I've seen, he appears to be 2 inches shorter than Mecole.

That just makes Tyreek's career even more insane. The dude is so unique.

I feel like you're getting completely owned in this debate and scrambling to identify phantom "points" that he somehow missed and there aren't any.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If I were ranking the wide receivers from this <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NFLDraft?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NFLDraft</a> based solely on situation and chance at immediate success, it probably looks something like:<br><br>1) Skyy Moore, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a><br>2) Jahan Dotson, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Commanders?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Commanders</a><br>3) Garrett Wilson, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Jets?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Jets</a> <br>4) Drake London, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Falcons?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Falcons</a><br>5) Treylon Burks, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Titans?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Titans</a></p>&mdash; Matt Lombardo (@MattLombardoNFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattLombardoNFL/status/1521481620133498883?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Opinion is invalid considering he has Dotson at 2.

Hush, you!

I'm busy getting owned!

"Based on situation and chance of immediate success" though, seems valid.

Sure...but not for Dotson. That dude has garbage at QB....and a group of WRs around him that are better options.

Them: "HE'S GOING TO BE ANTONIO BROWN!!!"

Me: "Hey, Sterling Shepard is probably a good comp and a reasonable expectation for him"

Them: "HE'S GOING TO BE BETTER THAN DEANTHONY THOMAS AND YOU'RE GETTING OWNED!!"

{shrug}

The way for him to be a "true #1" is he's gonna have to just be smarter and savvier than every one else, because of his lack of elite physical traits. It can happen, has and will happen in the future.

It's just not as likely.

But really, who cares. Say he's a 700 yard 4 TD guy in a normal run of the mill offense. Wouldn't you say having Pat with Andy pulling the strings would add....couple hundred yards and a few more TD's?

You go out and put up 8-900 yards a year and 5 TD's and that's pretty ****ing valuable.

I don't see why he coudln't be a 1000 yard guy and 5 TD's. AKA Emmanual Saunders.