If Shields wants $25M per year for five or six years, he'll definitely be playing somewhere else. For kicks, I looked at Baseball Reference's 10 historic pitchers most similar to Shields through 31. Of the 10 players, Kevin Brown was the only one who arguably performed anywhere near to the level that one would hope to make such a contract worthwhile.

Isn't his No. 1 comp Zack Greinke? Thought I saw someone say that somewhere yesterday.

Don't you have to assume that some of the young pitchers in the Royals system actually make it to the big leagues?

Would a starting five in 2015 be so bad if it was;

Zimmer
Vargus
Guthrie
Duffy
Ventura

Expecting all of them to be successful is wishful thinking.

I think it's a safer to bet against with the track record. Zach Greinke is the only starting pitcher in the past 15 years to pan out from our minors... and even that was tumultuous.

Before Greinke, the last Royals pitcher to come from our minor league system and be successful at the big leagues?

Jose Rosado. And his stay was short.

Greinke is #1 comp in general, but isn't included in the list of most similar pitchers through 31 (Greinke is only 30 and can't be included). Here's the list that I was referencing.

Moose Haas (959)
Doc Medich (955)
Ken Hill (950)
Mike Boddicker (950)
Kevin Brown (950)
Jason Schmidt (947)
Chris Carpenter (947)
Ben Sheets (946)
Dan Haren (946)
Matt Morris (945)

If Duffy and Ventura are pitching out of the 4/5 spots after the coming season, it's likely they've disappointed a bit.

And for Zimmer to move from starting in AA in 2014 to anchoring a rotation in 2015 would require him to have a Verlander-like debut. Would be awesome, but I'm not going to count on it.

The Royals' best chance for long-term success would be hitting on Zimmer, Duffy, Ventura and Sean Manaea. That would be akin to the A's hitting on Mulder, Hudson, and Zito... not a real likely outcome, but a fun one to think about.

I might have to pick up a Penny jersey. That one may always be relevant.

Is that a reference to David Glass's spending policy? ;)

Yeah, I agree they aren't all going to make it.

One would hope that at some point we're going to hit on somebody though. Through all these years of losing, Appier, Rosado, and Greinke is all we came up with. I know that just because a coin landed on tails 7 times in a row doesn't mean its due to land on heads on the 8th flip, but wow does that suck.

A cool fedora would look good with that Brad Penny Jersey...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater

That may be the worst giveaway in the last few seasons. Who wears a bleeping fedora?

Can someone fill me in on the Brad Penny references . Sorry to be clueless.

R's signed him to a Minor League Contract

Thanks.

Guillermo Mota signed to minor league deal

Who?

The guy we were supposed to trade Greinke for.

Print 'em.

Mota was a decent reliever for the Dodgers a couple years ago, right?

I'd rather have Manny Mota.........

I've got to concentrate...concentrate... concentrate... I've got to concentrate... concentrate... concentrate... Hello?... hello... hello... Echo... echo... echo... Pinch hitting for Pedro Borbon... Manny Mota... Mota... Mota...

He was good back in 2003-2004. Outside of that, he's been meh or Bad the rest of his 14 seasons (did I mention that he's 40 years old?)

His career ERA is 3.94 as a primarily National League Reliever. You take out his 2 best seasons (2003 and 2004) and look at his numbers over the other 12 years - again as a primarily National League Relief pitcher - he is a career 4.38 ERA guy... That ain't good.

To put that in perspective.. Kelvin Herrera who was our most inconsistent and worst Relief pitcher for most of the season last year posted a 3.86 ERA (better than Mota's career averages)... and this was in the American League.

I should also point out that Brad Penny wears affliction clothes. blah.

Question brought up on 610 earlier....

If the Royals are 10 games out near the trade deadline do they trade shields to get prospects? Danny and Cdot thought he's here all season regardless

It depends on what's on the table. If we got offered a haul similar to what the Brewers got for Greinke a couple seasons ago, it would be foolish for us not to listen.

If that happens I imagine Dayton is out the door and things get chaotic behind the scenes.
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The Royals should probably listen, but I really doubt DM does that, he needs 2014 to be successful, or there might not be a 2015 for him.

I'm hope Glass gives Dayton the ultimatum. make the playoffs in 2014 or else.......


I think 8 years is plenty of time. No more excuses.
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That can have a detrimental long term effect to the franchise... I would like to think Glass is smart enough to not do something like that.

seriously?????

8 freaking years is long enough. He doesnt deserve anymore time if he cant get it done by then. Hes lucky hes gotten this long.

It's not about getting rid of him... it's about the ultimatum... meaning Dayton would make selfish moves that could hurt the franchise long term to gain 2-3 more wins and save his job.

I would hate it if for all for Wil Myers is that we got 2 seasons above .500 and no playoff birth and a draft choice. Woof

Royals hot stove on 610 right now with Denny and Ryan w/ Dayton and Ned as guests coming up

few notes..

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 3m

Brad Penny's minor lge deal with #Royals pays him $1M if makes majors, $1.5M available in GS/IP bonuses. Can opt out 4/2 if not in MLB

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 5m

#Royals avoid arbitration with Tim Collins, sign him for $1,362,500

yep, you gotta pay attention to moral hazard. Its not as big a deal in the NFL since in-season trades are rare. Ideally, if I were the owner, I'd put my GM on a rolling 2-year contract that automatically renews every year about a month after the season. The GM might still think that this is the make or break year, but he'll never be in the last year of his contract and might not know for sure that he has to make long-term dumb moves to win now.

You'd guarantee that you would have to eat a year if you ever did decide to fire the GM, but its probably worth it.

Sad thing is....I'll own up to it...I'm actually ok with that (if that scenario plays out).

After decades of being one of the worst 3-5 teams in baseball......it's a whole other world actually having a competitive team that is in the hunt post-all-star break!

I know it's ridiculous to think that way....but losing 100 games nearly every season is ridiculous also.

That was weird... posted in wrong thread...

But on teh topic of Myers vs. Shields... I'mw ith DJJasonp... I needed this past year. I'll take another summer of fun in the sun.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/roy...ting-ka,34966/

Royals Courting Masahiro Tanaka By Highlighting Kansas City’s Rich Japanese History

TOUCHDOWN ROYALS.

Great fn post. I'm with you dude. I make the trade again and twice on Sunday. Let the chips fall where they may. Rany can choke on a fatty. How damn fun was it to be watching box scores in August?

It was alot of fun...but I want more success.

Me too. Small market team swimming up stream. Meh!

Sonofabitch! I saw the headline and wondered why I never knew that KC had a "Rich Japanese History". Then I'm reading the article and thinking WTF is this shit? Finally I looked at the source and saw that it was The Onion.

:doh!:

You weren't the only one... although I won't openly admit to it.

Didn't Brad Penny go out with Alyssa Milano?

We will never be Rooooyals......Roooyals.....

Nice. Pics?

Hosmer signs for $3.6 Mil, avoiding arbitration.
Hochevar signed as well $5.21 Mil, 1 year.

Holy shit did we really give Hoch $5 mil?
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Hoch can also earn an additional $400k based on incentives for games started or games finished

Dayton forgot to mention "It's Harry Truman's Hometown...."

I also saw where Getz signed with Toronto. I don't know if that includes the rights to his wife or not.

The important thing to take away from this is that he is no longer available for DM to try to sign. Now, watch him go out and trade for him

5 mil for Hoch?

Jesus H Mary mother......

I dunno what to say..... Just when you think DM is starting to wisen, he reverts back to his old tricks.

Gotta be a misprint.

MLBTraderumors.com (well-known for very good arbitration predictions) estimated 5 million for Hoch, and 4.1 million for Hosmer. So, we did a little worse than expected for Hoch, but better than expected for Hosmer.

5 million for Hoch was pretty much what we expected.

Does that make it any less Stupid?

Yes. I sat behind her at the Royals game in 05 or so when she was in town to see Penny pitch. And by the 5th inning, our local goobers (probably from Raytown or INdependence) had spotted her and were coming down for autographs. Like 10-12 before the usher started to hold them off. It was embarrassing to watch.


I noticed she had a tatoo on the back of her neck. Or maybe that was just my splooge.

You "splooged" on her neck, yet you have the audacity to call people from Independence "Goobers?"

The ones from Independence would have cordially invited her out to the parking lot to snort some crank. We're all about the hospitality.

I didn't mean to, it just sorta happened. She was wearing some sort of Kentucky derby hat and had a book if I recall. I dind't know who it even was until the goobers started showing up and a scout next to me told me who it was.

Thats just how arbitration works. As much as I despised Hoch (I wanted his ass non-tendered last year) he was a dominating setup man last season, and that has value. At this point we probably have to keep him if we want to have a decent chance in 2014 with this rotation.

I don't know if he would have gotten 5 million in free agency, probably he would, but if we didn't want to pay what arbitration was going to force on us, then our only alternative was to cut him.

Nauseating

Bonifacio gets 3.5 million avoiding arbitration.

Well, at least they got Hoz settled for the time being. Gotta get Mr. Holland next.

slightly higher than expected (3.3).

Holland is the most expensive one still outstanding, mlbtraderumors predicted 4.9 for him.

Nice to see them avoiding arbitration in some of these cases.

Hochevar amount sucks, but like al said... he was getting about that one way or another.

It's kind of ludicrous that a team with a payroll of $92 million or so is going to spend 17 percent of that payroll on its closer, an 8th inning guy that still can't be 100 percent trusted with men on base (Hochevar), and a 6th/7th inning/swing starter type (Wade Davis).

They really should look at moving one of Hochevar or Davis for a piece that can help either this year or somewhere down the road. The bullpen could withstand losing either of those guys without missing a beat, IMO.

The Royals just can't seem to quit Hochevar. He was better the 2nd half of last year though. hopefully they are not thinking of moving him back to starter?
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Blasphemy!

Hopefully not, but I'm sure they'll consider it in Spring Training.

It doesn't make much sense for a sub-$100 million payroll team that's up against its budget to spend $15 million on 3 RH relief pitchers.

If there's a team/front office/manager stubborn enough to believe Hochevar deserves another shot as a starter, despite all the eyeball evidence to the contrary, it's this one.

5 million for Hochevar, who is still a liability, is unacceptable. For whatever reason, there is a love affair with him by GMDM or someone in the front office\coaching staff. His performance last season was NOT the norm - It was the exception. Did no one pay attention to the Career year then signing of Frenchy? It's a bad deal. 5 million for a reliever that has never performed until last year, then spend that type of money again with a limited payroll and a bunch of money already tied up in your bullpen? You non-tender him or trade him... That would be the good baseball move.

But he has a little value (certainly not 5 mil for a small market team as a reliever) and is one of the boys, so he's given the golden boot to drink from.

I can't agree with this at all... Hochevar will most assuredly not put up the same numbers as last year. If he does, then you start having a track record for paying him a few million dollars... but 5 mil as a lottery ticket\reclamation project is not good baseball business.

DM may be the most arbitration-averse GM in baseball. He has never allowed it to go to the arbitrator, he always settles with the player.

Hoch must have really good pictures of GMDM with a farm animal.

I was upset they didn't non-tender him a year ago. That would have been a good time to walk away from him. But this year? You can't non-tender a guy coming off that season and be taken seriously. By tendering him a contract and coming to an agreement, Hochevar is at least somebody they can get some value out of. This continues the clock to try to trade him, which I agree completely is what they should be doing.

They should be trying like crazy to trade him or Davis, though. Likely Hochevar. Small market teams can't pay that type of salary to a setup man who still isn't trustworthy with inherited runners.

Well first, regarding regression and him being a liability: he isn't. Not unless he starts again. Last season was the first season as a relief pitcher, and his numbers were terrific. Is he that good as a reliever? Probably not, but it would take one hell of a regression for him to be a bad relief pitcher.

5 million is high for a reliever who only played the setup role for one season, so it may have been difficult to trade him, but if there's any chance he could come close to 2013 then we do need him so cutting him doesn't make sense either. I'm fine with just reluctantly paying what the arbitrator probably would have given him.

I wanted to non-tender him last year too, and I still think it needs to be done. The track record, the small market franchise, the current roster, and the position he plays.

Yes he had a good year, but 5 mil for a reliever with two-thirds of a season with success (As a middle reliever mind you) out of 5 is NOT good business. No matter which way you try to look at it.

It is not good baseball business. Maybe there is more to this love affair than we know. Maybe GMDM is doing all he can to trade Hoch, and has had no nibbles. I don't know?

I think they would have a real perception problem if they non-tendered a guy coming off that season. It goes beyond just payroll this year... agents and the union would really squawk about it... they wouldn't have a case for a grievance or anything, but the Royals would pay for it several times over down the road (in other salary negotiations). Scott Boras doesn't forget things like that.

He still has a trade market, IMO, if they're trying that. Considering that average joe closers like Jim Johnson are making $10 million/year, Hochevar would have some appeal to a team in need of a closer on a budget. Not sure that team exists, but you probably can find it between now and the trade deadline.

Also keep in mind he's a free agent in 2015, he'll get whatever his market value is then. We're not committed to him beyond this season, and he's not keeping us from signing some huge free agent SP, so this argument about small markets can't afford to pay relievers this much money just doesn't apply in this case. I also don't see how any team is going to trade us something we need in 2014 for Hoch.