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Mr. Laz 07-31-2013 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9848595)
Doing nothing was the right move for the Cardinals because the cost of doing business was ridiculous.

Giving up 10-12 WAR of Wong (and likely more) for 2 months of Santana would be asinine. Other than Santana, who else would you give up that could actually help the Cardinals right now?

instead Wong with sit in the minors until another trade possibility pops up


unless you don't like Carpenter

DeezNutz 07-31-2013 05:03 PM

If Santana would be enough to help position you for Oct and to advance, there is no price too high. If there is, that price certainly isn't Wong.

Rudy tossed tigger's salad 07-31-2013 05:07 PM

Woooo another pitching prospect! The Astros have some outstanding arms developing in the minors... might even add Carlos Rodon next year. Im happy. Maxwell was shit. Norris trade wasn't much, but oh well. JUST KEEP TANKING!

'Hamas' Jenkins 07-31-2013 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9848620)
If Santana would be enough to help position you for Oct and to advance, there is no price too high. If there is, that price certainly isn't Wong.

That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

DeezNutz 07-31-2013 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9848633)
That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

You're underselling Santana's year. You want to argue that Miller is still your #2, fine. But NL pitching stats are always a little inflated because these guys get to throw to the NL.

Santana would be your #2.

SPATCH 07-31-2013 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9848633)
That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

LOLLLOLOLOOOL

'Hamas' Jenkins 07-31-2013 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9848634)
You're underselling Santana's year. You want to argue that Miller is still your #2, fine. But NL pitching stats are always a little inflated because these guys get to throw to the NL.

Santana would be your #2.

No, I'm not.

Lance Lynn: 3.75 xFIP
Shelby Miller: 3.35 xFIP

Ervin Santana: 3.50 xFIP

You could make an argument that Santana would be the number 3, but his WAR is actually less than Lynn.

It's quite likely that the Cardinals do with Wacha/Martinez what the Rays did with Matt Moore two years ago. It's a damned sight better option than Westbrook/Kelly.

duncan_idaho 07-31-2013 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9848633)
That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

Martinez has better pure stuff than Santana. Wacha is definitely a big stretch, IMO. Santana's slider is one of the best offspeed pitches in baseball and pairs that with a pretty good sinker. Wacha has an awesome changeup, but his fastball is straighter than Santana's and he doesn't get as many whifs - at least at the big-league level at this point - with his change as Santana does with his slider.

Long-term, both those guys might be better than Santana. But neither gives you this year what Santana would.

Don't let Santana's bad season a year ago fool you. Santana is having an excellent season, and isn't by fluky measures.

Miller has been awesome, and I won't argue with slotting Santana behind him (though I'm concerned about how Miller stretches out as the season goes on).

DeezNutz 07-31-2013 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9848638)
No, I'm not.

Lance Lynn: 3.75 xFIP
Shelby Miller: 3.35 xFIP

Ervin Santana: 3.50 xFIP

You could make an argument that Santana would be the number 3, but his WAR is actually less than Lynn.

It's quite likely that the Cardinals do with Wacha/Martinez what the Rays did with Matt Moore two years ago. It's a damned sight better option than Westbrook/Kelly.

xFIP doesn't adjust based on league, correct? Assuming this is true, we're not making an apples-apples comparison between the leagues.

'Hamas' Jenkins 07-31-2013 05:24 PM

Santana's slider is a devastating pitch, and he's pitched well this year, but his fastball is mediocre. Wacha's fastball already grades out as a superior pitch. His change is not in the same class, but he also has a developing curve.

Furthermore, you have to think about what we'd be asking Santana to do: hold down a rotation spot until rosters expand. The difference between Santana and Kelly is significant, but marginal over the course of a month.

I don't know why Royals fans expect the Cardinals to act desperate and irrationally. Dayton Moore is your GM, not ours.

alnorth 07-31-2013 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9848638)
No, I'm not.

Lance Lynn: 3.75 xFIP
Shelby Miller: 3.35 xFIP

Ervin Santana: 3.50 xFIP

You could make an argument that Santana would be the number 3, but his WAR is actually less than Lynn.

It's quite likely that the Cardinals do with Wacha/Martinez what the Rays did with Matt Moore two years ago. It's a damned sight better option than Westbrook/Kelly.

A junior league pitcher's xFIP would worsen in the top league.

'Hamas' Jenkins 07-31-2013 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz (Post 9848649)
xFIP doesn't adjust based on league, correct? Assuming this is true, we're not making an apples-apples comparison between the leagues.

You can use WAR, which grades Lynn out as superior to Santana. It also puts Miller below both, which is asinine.

DeezNutz 07-31-2013 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 9848658)
You can use WAR, which grades Lynn out as superior to Santana. It also puts Miller below both, which is asinine.

Rany generally argues that moving to the AL adds 1 to an ERA. I'm not sure what he's using to make this argument, though, so I'm not going to back it.

However, common sense says that facing an 8-man lineup every night would make things a bit easier, not to mention facing anemic offenses like Chicago and Pitts.

'13 Santana would be having a statistically disgusting year for you guys.

'Hamas' Jenkins 07-31-2013 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9848656)
A junior league pitcher's xFIP would worsen in the top league.

xFIP adjusts for league average.

xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

KevB 07-31-2013 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudy Was Offsides (Post 9848631)
JUST KEEP TANKING!

It's a guaranteed recipe for success....just look at the Royals!


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