It's sad we're wasting such good pitching though. A halfway competent, league average offense would put us into the playoffs. And the point is Butler-Gordon-Hosmer should be way above league average hitters. If they were we'd be fine. This isn't on Aoki or Cain or Dyson etc.

But you need options or alternatives to do it. Don't want to incite a clubhouse revolt by doing things perceived to severely damage the team's chances at winning.

Yes. I was hopeful they could be a league-average offense this year. Even getting ONLY what they got last year out of those three guys, this would be a league-average offense.

Guys in the middle have to hit. If they don't...

Are we still undefeated when scoring 4+ runs? Maybe I'm unrealistic, but I would have thought they could muster 4 runs in at least 65% of their games this season. Obviously, they won't win all of those just based on this, but if you average it out - that's still a lot of cushion to win at least 90.

Hell, a .550 winning % is 89 games right there. .650 is 105 or 106.

That's how bad this offense has been.

Butler aside. What is troublesome is its indicative of a club philosophy on how they are approaching their plate appearances.

We're undefeated when scoring 4+ runs. I also believe we haven't won when scoring less than 4 runs.

Ding ding ding!

9 of our 12 losses, our pitching has held the opponent to 5 or fewer runs... and we've still lost the game. NINE OF TWELVE.

That is absolutely ridiculous.

Let's look at the data. We are 12-12 and have outscored our opponents 91-87. So our record is what it should be. We are 13/15 in runs and 2/15 in ERA. So we score 3.81 runs per game. League average: 4.43.


So we are only 86% of the league average. Suppose we were at that level instead. That would be .62 runs per which is 15 runs more. That puts us at 106 runs instead of 91. Running a league-average run total through the expected win/loss formula (Pythagorean) results in an expected final record of 91-71.

http://replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/Calculators.html

That would be with a league Average offense.

Freaking amazing how good this pitching staff has been, especially when so many worried about Guthrie\Chen declining (which they have), an untested\young Ventura, and kind of a question mark in Vargas. It's only going to get better when Duffy takes over for Chen.

As our offense gets closer to average I'd expect pitching to dip a little as well. Hopefully offensive production improves more than pitching declines.

Well, maybe but we had about the same spread (11/15 scoring 1/15 ERA) last year so it's possible it stays like this. We ended up +47 in run differential which should've been 87-75 (we finished close at 86-76).

Our current pace suggests we'll end up +27. Or 84-78.

Butler IS the problem. In 2012 he created 23.9 runs offensively but that fell to 7.2 last year and is already a dreadful -8.2 this year and -0.8 WAR. If he'd have put up the same 2012 numbers that's 15 or so extra runs last year that's another win or two. Right now he's a massive albatross. As bad as Gordon & Hos are they at least bring gold glove defense which keeps our runs allowed down.

If we're on pace to score 20 fewer runs, we can get the bulk of that back just by getting Old Billy to return. It must happen or the season is a lost cause.

Bump for a cold and miserable game day.

McGowan has been getting knocked around so this should be a decent offensive day for us. It would be nice to knock him out early and wear out the bullpen to start the series.

Actually, we don't have an offense.

Start the thread captain.

Hopefully Vargas continues to pitch well. The elements are definitely in his favor tonight.

I don't keep my fans waiting. :thumb:

It really is confounding how effing terrible the Royals organization has been at drawing walks and having a good plate approach for the past 20 years.

It truly is. It's not just a Dayton thing, it's an everybody thing. I truly believe had Gordon & Hosmer (possibly even Moose) come up through a different organization, they'd be 25 HR guys. This year.

It's like we are bringing these guys up through the system and giving them the tools to have the highest amount of success possible at AAA.

I honestly think the organizational philosophy is flawed. Rather than seeing a lot of pitches and sitting on the mistake, the Royal's approach is swing at a pitch you can make contact with and hope something good happens.

Also, the O-Contact% must be affected by the number of times you get into a bad count and have to foul balls off to stay alive.

God. Damn. I'm going to cry after seeing that.

The Royals would improve their approach if they could hire a decent hitting coach. I hear the **** at Central Missouri State is available.

You joke, but its a pretty damn good D2 baseball program. They always have multiple players drafted.

Yes, they are. But D-2 baseball is about as legitimate in terms of professional baseball as hiring Anderson to lead Mizzou hoops.

They get guys drafted, but it's typically in very late rounds, and such picks barely qualify as lottery tickets. I know this pretty well.

For sure. My point is: for as much as you just downplayed D2 baseball...D2 basketball is significantly worse than that.

The difference between D1 and D2 football? Negligible at best. Actually, at best, some D2 teams are better than many FCS teams. D2 football and to a lesser extent baseball are relevant to the pros. D2 basketball? NOPE.

Cuthbert went yard at Hammons' Field a while ago.

I agree with everything above.

Royals Sign Mitch Maier
By Steve Adams [May 1, 2014 at 10:51am CDT]
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…

The Royals have signed Mitch Maier to a minor league deal and assigned him to Double-A, reports Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter). The Royals originally drafted Maier with the 30th overall pick of the 2003 draft, and he batted .248/.327/.344 for them in 1117 plate appearances from 2006-12. Maier hasn’t appeared in the Majors since, though he hit well in 31 games for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate last season.

He's Chen's replacement.

It is still early but...

It's May 1st...

Too early for Butler-Hos-Gordon but not too early for our middle infield. Uh, ok. That said I'll agree with you that both have been playing exceptional and are saving our ass offensively (defensively as well, Escobar is playing gold glove defense and Infante's range is much better than I expected).


We are entering May at 14-12 and the trio above have 1 home run. 1. As in, combined. That's stunning.

We won't be competing for a playoff spot if that continues into May. That's just amazingly bad.

No question. But I'll continue to give DM credit for building such a good pitching staff and defensive team. Small markets can't have it all. He has allocated his funds in such a way that he's coming out of April with a winning record. By hook or by crook, we are 14-12.

Clutchscobar is our MVP, right now he is leading the team in OPS. Right now we have 8 regulars over .700 in OPS, but nobody is special. We need Butler and Moose (showing signs) to get theirs over .700 and we can somewhat resemble the BoSox last year where there is potential to do damage all though the lineup.

I nor you in those quotes made a comment on Butler, Hos, and Gordon so that isn't really relevant. Obviously they need to hit some HRs.

I am not sure with all the formulas but I just think the predictions for Esky, as well as your hatred, were being based too much off of a bad season. A 0.0 projection? Come on, he had improved every season prior to last season. A bounce back season is not that surprising.

I'd say Infante is the MVP so far.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't May devastating to the Royals last year?

8-20

Man, let's start off May with a sweep.

That'd be very niiiiiiiiice.

Very much so. I don't see a repeat of that though. Our lineup still has little power, but its more consistent than last May's lineup. Plus, you have to think that Hosmer, Butler, Gordon will level out to career norms eventually. 15-20 HRs.
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Yay, after 8 years we have 2/3rds of a baseball team!

I just want a series win at home against Detroit this weekend.

I want two women at once

Take first place and don't look back!

I know the Royals are only one month in, but they are 9-2 against teams outside the division. In seasons past, we usually see a Royals team shit the bed against mediocre teams outside the division.

That series at Minnesota was such a bummer.

So was the Cleveland one....

holy shit! The Royals are 5-10 in the division? **** that noise!

1-7 at CLE, DET, and Minn

Chen to DL. Duffy likley to start Saturday. Can throw 65-70 pitches.

(Pencils in Saturday as a loss.)

Hope he gets over killing Melky last night

FYP


The formulas are provided by OLIVER:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/introducing-oliver/


It probably incorporated his terrible wRC+ of 49 or -37.5 runs last year. His three seasons prior were -16.3 average (-25.3/-20.9/-2.8). So the projections probably think he's closer to -20 runs or so than the 2012 -2.8. Right now he's +1.3. I doubt you'll find even one SABRmetrician who thinks that'll hold.

When Cain comes back Maxwell needs to go. Dyson has proven himself more useful and that spot will be better used on a backup middle infielder.

2014 Royals Repository
 

Yeah okay. Can't talk about Esky on his own? Have to bring in guys completely irrelevant to the performance of that player? What a joke.

You continue to lean on those projections and tell us how Esky shouldn't be on the team if that's what you want to do. If you want to complain that those others need more HRs no one will argue.

Not to split hairs, but do you think Esky will continue to produce at a .750+ OPS rate for the remainder of the year? I think he may be improving, yes... but I don't see him continuing like this.

The guy has a career track record of 2500 AB's with .640 OPS. Same as I don't see Belly, Gordo, Hos, etc all performing so poorly for the remainder.

PB is being his usual overreaction :jester: self, by saying esky won't maintain in producing but doesn't take the same approach towards those that aren't producing (yet have a track record of doing so).

2014 Royals Repository
 

Most likely not. Do you think he will have a 0.1 WAR combined this year and next? Should we be looking for a replacement?

Other than last season he has performed basically as you would hope. It isn't his fault the true offensive guys aren't hitting HRs and doing as expected so saying he is a problem because of team offensive woes is directing frustrations in the wrong direction.

Nope, and I edited my post to include some additionals (probably while you are responding)... I don't think Esky needs to be replaced... as long as he's closer to .700 than .600 at the plate.

The guy we need to seriously start considering replacing long term at this point is Cain. We are being forced to retain an extra OF'r because he's basically this guy with a glove.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JRj9PmoUoh...breakable.jpeg

Hopefully Hosmer can start getting those doubles a few extra feet so they become HRs. He has just missed quite a few in the last 10 games or so. Among AL first basemen he is tied for the lead in doubles and second in BA. He seems to be swinging well in general, but now he needs to turn some doubles into HRs and hit better with RISP. Right now he is just at .250.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>A year ago today, the Royals game got snowed out.</p>&mdash; Sam Mellinger (@mellinger) <a href="https://twitter.com/mellinger/statuses/462245530999857152">May 2, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So 3 innings.

Um, that's what Tegu was doing. Thanks for playing.


I think Hosmer could revert back to last year's numbers, but I'm pretty sure Billy Butler is done as a decent DH. We'll see if I'm right. As for Escobar/Infante I think Escobar will fall off severely but I never said anything about Infante. Only that his contract will suck year 4. WTF was he even brought up?

I doubt Infante is here 4 years. He'll be traded before then, if KC doesn't turn it around and make the playoffs this year and\or next.

2014 Royals Repository
 

You brought up Infante. No one else has even mentioned him.

Of the 194 qualifiers on Fangraphs WAR leaerboard, Butler ranks 192. So 3rd worst player in baseball so far this year. Moose 175, Hosmer 163. Aoki 116:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...=0&sort=21%2cd


It's early on Aoki, has a 0.3 WAR which projected out is 1.8 which would be what he did last year and what ZIPS & Steamer both have him at. He's striking out 14.4% of the time though vs 5.9% last year so that may improve.


However Wil Smith is off to a roaring start in Mil going 15IP with 1 ER allowed and an 8/1 K/bb ratio. Given Chen's injury it might be a trade we regret since Aoki is only in KC one year.

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/tea...level=&#39;ALL'

Duffy had a start against Detroit last year and straight up murked their entire lineup.

To update: of 27 qualifying 1B, only 3 have a lower weighted Runs Created (wRC+) figure as well as runs above replacement (RAA) than Hosmer:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=17,d


He is now one of only 8 players of the top 110 most plate appearances without a home run and the only 1B. The other 7 positions represented:

RF: (Aoki)
2B: (Bonifacio, Murphy, Prado)
SS: (Cabrera, Echevarria)
3B: (McGehee)


So basically it's Erica and some middle infielders who are thus vying for "biggest pussy" of MLB.

Some announcers the other day were attributing his lack of power to the width of his stance and creating little loft on hits.

He tries to kill the ball every time. Looks like he's swinging an ax.
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It's amazing to me to see his swing in slow motion and wonder why there's no power behind it. It looks like the ball should be going 400' on most of his solid hits

Losing is very contagious....I see this team taking a nose dive this month LMAO

Well, here we go again with another May meltdown.

If we have another May with less than 10 wins (which is totally possible) here's what I'd do:

1) Send Moose to AA Arkansas and leave him there all year. If you can't trade him in the off season, assign him back to AA Arkansas in 2015 and make him play his way to Omaha. Then we'll see what happens. He's had enough of a track record to show what he is: a less than .200 major league hitter who can't solve left handed pitching. For the rest of this year, just flat start Valencia at third. He's a better overall player, and won't be a black hole in the sixth spot.

2) If we're 10 games below .500 at the AS Break, trade Shields. Get the best value you can for him. He's not coming back anyway, so what's the point?

3) DFA Chen. He's done. Don't care, he's done.

4) If Cain can't stay healthy the rest of the year, trade him in the off season. He's never made it out of April healthy. Can't rely on him. He's the Brokie Croyle of the Kansas City Royals.

5) After the AS Break, consider trading Alex Gordon for prospects. He's on the downward arc of his career track. Send him to a winner so he can get to the playoffs at least once in his career. Do him a favor, get him out of this Hell.

6) Try to sign Salvie to an even longer term contract. Keep him in Hell for a long time.

7) If we're more than 10 games below .500 at the AS Break, fire Ned. Let Sveum serve out the rest of the year, then get a new skipper for 2015.

8) If Billay has less than 10 HRs by the AS Break, bench him, DH Maxwell the rest of the year.

9) Continue to start Duffy. Let him take his lumps.

10) After the AS Break, get Zimmer up here, Start him. Let him take his lumps too.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Currently, KC is last in MLB in team home runs, third from last in slugging pct, and fourth from last in on-base pct.

If trading Shields at the break ends up being the right move, and it might, DM won't be the one making the deal. Dude has to be fired at that point.

And I'm going to puke all the **** over myself if the above happens because the trade will have been an unbelievable catastrophe.