Best record from each of the six divisions, plus two of the best overall records from each league. The two wildcard teams from each league play a single game for the wildcard spot.

your highest SLUGGING guys need to be 3-4-5, Your highest OBP guys need to be 1-2-3... hence your highest OBP + SLG guy (meaning typically your best hitter) is @ the 3 spot.

Yeah, you do not want to be a wild card team if you can possibly avoid it now. Winning the division means a lot. We won't have any more situations like a few years ago when the Yankees purposefully stopped trying to win the division to rest their pitchers because they had a wild card locked up.

Well, if the Houston manager snowed the ump with "they changed that rule", at least that makes sense. They were wrong, but at least they weren't insane. You'd think at least one umpire would have the current rules in a back pocket.

Batting order doesn't mean much to me. I mean, if your guys are hitting, does it really matter where they hit? In general, I would think you'd want your best hitters at the top of the order moving down, so they get a maximum number of at bats. Other than that, who cares?

I agree. The gaping holes in the lineup are more relevant than the order in which the guys hit.

uhm, no shit

that's exactly what I said

No you didn't, you dumbed it down and stated overall OPS, there's a difference.

I love alnorth. Great baseball poster.

I'm never going to agree with him that Barry Bonds should have been at leadoff rather than 3 or 4.

You put your .OPS guys at 3 and 4 because they drive in your .OBP guys. Period.

Not even Billy Beane hit Miguel Tejada at #1. There is a reason for that. Perhaps the math says something else, but you don't lead off with one of your best power hitters. In regards to the Royals...with all the extra base hits Gordon gets...you can't bat him at leadoff. He has to be at #3.

I didn't dumb it down.

You don't bat Mark Reynonds at #3 because he has a high slugging %.

You bat Frank Thomas at #3 because he has a high slugging % AND he gets on base.

You forgot about Jeff Francoeur.

Some people cannot get out of the way of their own ego.

Alex Gordon is the IDEAL #3 hitter.

Of course, every IDEAL #3 hitter would be a successful leadoff man...but you don't waste a guy who consistently hits doubles and even home runs at #1.

You want him hitting behind people who GET ON BASE.

I realize alnorth is going to be like 'omg a .280 OBP isn't any different than a .330 OBP'...but it is.

batting Gordon leadoff means every single game he bats at least 1 time with no one on base...

you're wasting runs having your best power hitter hit leadoff...and that is what Gordon is...he doesn't hit a ton of homeruns but he hits a metric shit ton of doubles and doubles score runners who are on base

what are you talking about?

I talk about slugging % all of the time

It is important.

I didn't care Hosmer was hitting .280 2 weeks ago because his slugging was like .305

that's horrid

you don't win games hitting singles

but Mark Reynolds hits .220 and slugs .500

that's who you want at #3?

Gordon might be discovering his power stroke. Man, that HR last night was bad-ass. His home runs haven't been basket shots, they've been bombs.

Thought the same thing after he crushed that ball.

Also had some "style points" after the swing, which I've never seen Gordo do before.

I don't particularly care for that in general, but it tells me he's found a power stroke (and I like actually seeing someone on the Royals with a little swag).

WTF?

Where did that come from?

Gordon is a guy who I'd want sacrificing average to swing for the fences. We need it. If he's the guy that can hit 30 HR's on this team, he needs to be doing it.

In 2013, you can't win without home runs. Plain and simple.

Our starters have been fantastic but it is going to even out. Jeremy Guthrie isn't going to have a sub 3.00 ERA all year long. Same with Santana.

Totally agree.

Billy showing off the body of a 47 year old drunk.

I don't think Gordon is the ideal #3 hitter, But he's definitely one of the best options we have on the roster... His OBP is only .340 which isn't outstanding by any means, but has been much better the past 2 years hovering in the .370 range. His Slugging isn't ideal.. Career slg of .443... last year was only .455 which isn't bad, but you want multiple guys in your lineup hitting the .455 range. Not your #3 hitter. His SLG this season is up. However, this is due to his recent surge of power - 3 HR's in last 3 games. Before the last 3 it was .460 right around his career average, it'll level off.

As for the leadoff, we really don't have a high OBP player on the team which is why Gordon has played there... and some people are reluctant to see him move.

You called me out for basically agreeing with you, but adding to it... but whatever. I'm used to seeing your arrogance around here.

Carry on.

I spent most of my life believing the same thing you do now. The numbers do not have a bias, and they do not lie.

Out of necessity, yes... but at the same time, when he's tried this before he's failed miserably. If he's that guy to hit 30, you're damn right... but he's never been able to do that... in his first 6 seasons he's only broken 20 one time. Optimized projection is fine and dandy, but at some point you have to look at him for what he is... a Good player, with gap power and occasional HR ability.

Maybe he breaks out, I sure hope he does.. but not expecting it by any means.

Billy sent it to him last night. Duh.

Any good BBQ places open on Sunday?

Looking to put some down after the game on Sunday.

then talking about Alex Gordon we have to throw out his first few seasons...he's not that player anymore

it's the same thing with Alex Smith

on a stacked team...you're right, perhaps he's an ideal #2

on this team? He has to hit #3.

and alnorth, I just don't see it

I understand that the math probably shows that Barry Bonds would have been best served as leadoff since he got on base 60% of the time (that's a real stat one year)...

but it just defies logic IMO

I don't look at a lineup as an extrapolation over a 162 game season

every single game the objection is to win

are you going to win more games with your best .OPS guy at #1 or at #3 behind guys who are better hitters and get on base more than Jeff Francouer and Chris Getz?

I just don't understand how, potentially 1 MORE AB PER GAME (and that rarely works out that way) where, in the very same scenario it GUARANTEES one at bat with your best hitter hitting with no one on base no matter what...is a lineup that guarantees more victories over putting your best hitter who had over 50 doubles the previous year #3 behind two superior hitters and on base guys than the black hole of our lineup

I just don't see how you can argue when EVERY SINGLE MAJOR LEAGUE MANAGER EVER, even the forward thinking GM's like Billy Beane, never used this math to submit a lineup

Miguel Tejada batted 3rd.

Like Hootie says, the value of your SLG% diminishes greatly when you don't have OBP% people in front of you...

The very few additional at bats obtained by batting leadoff as opposed to #3 over the course of the year is minimal at best. The impact of the diminished return on the SLG% far outweighs it.

This is the one thing I don't think the saber heads understand, you can't just extrapolate everything out over the course of the entire season. Some runs and AB's matter more than others.

It's baseball, not a roto fantasy league.

Right, which is why I also used the last 2 seasons' stats in discussing the points.

the "math" just doesn't take into account in game scenarios

it's a lot easier to win a game when Alex Gordon comes up in the 1st inning and hits a 2 run HR and the pitcher suddenly has the lead which instills confidence

these "extra ABs", and they do exist...IMO, are negated by the fact that, NO MATTER WHAT, once every game our best .OPS guy is hitting with no one on base.

Now...if he leads off the game with a double I agree, he is going to score more often than not because Escobar and Butler are hitting behind him...

but the fact of the matter is...we need to count on Alex Gordon to be a run producer first, not a run scorer first.

he's not a superstar hitter at this point

Butler almost achieved that status after his great 2012. Gordon had a good 2012. His doubles line was amazing.

A guy that hits that many doubles doesn't belong as a leadoff hitter on a power starved team.

Of course he's going to thrive there. He would thrive at any spot in the lineup. The dude can rake.

...I just think our fans were so disappointed with the early years Gordon that when he finally worked at leadoff they didn't want to **** with it. Understandable. But once a guy figures it out and he has that many extra base hits, you just have to hit him 3rd with this particular lineup. It is going to produce the most runs. Runs win games.

Major league managers are very conservative in their approach to the game. They've always been years behind the statistical community, but you are starting to see them catch up.

I'd compare the lineup thing to 4th downs in football. All the math shows that coaches should be going for it on 4th down much more often. However, it is still being under-utilized due to years of conventional wisdom, and because no coach wants to risk their job doing something different.

math doesn't take into account anxiety or crowd effect on 4th down

it simply doesn't

math doesn't have the gray area professional sports has

That anxiety and crowd were also there on the previous 4th downs that the stats were based on.

Even leading off the game with a double serves to illustrate the fact that he would be better off batting third. If Cain and Escobar bat before him, percentages say that one of them will get on base. That double would have driven them in.

The way I see it, it comes down to this: you are better off having a single followed by a double than a double followed by a single...even moreso if you single then homer versus homering then getting a single. You increase your likelihood of scoring multiple runs simply by switching the order in which the hits come.

I was in favor of leaving Gordon at the top to start the season because I was hopeful the Royals could get decent production behind Butler in the 4-5 spots.

As the season has gone on and that has NOT happened, it became a little different. I didn't think Lorenzo Cain would be this productive at the plate.

I still don't like Escobar in the leadoff spot - OBP issues - long term, but now that the lineup has been shaken up, I think you roll with it for a little while and see what happens.

Bill James has done the math, and says your best hitter should hit #2.

Why not Hosmer short term? If Hosmer starts hitting for power swap him and Cain.

Hos
Cain
Gordan
Butler
Moose
Escobar
Salvy
Frenchy/Dyson
Johnson/Getz

I would put Perez at five or six, but I like Hosmer at leadoff given his current situation.

Hopefully Moose can keep up his production from the last two weeks.

MLB just confirmed that the umps blew it in Houston. Its too bad the Angels won, we could have had the first upheld protest in decades.

The friend of a friend.

Apparently a roadie.

Billy sends have naked pics to someone that helps load the trucks?

No idea, man. I'm sure it was sent to/intended for a female.

Country Kitchen waitress?

Um, it absolutely does. WTF are you talking about?

I've seen the same picture, won't reveal the source but Billy is sharing it for sure.

I'm in the same boat, I also argued for Gordon to stay at leadoff. Hootie is right that you need guys who drive the ball in the middle of the lineup to score runs. But, you also need guys at the top getting on base. I'd hoped Butler/Hos/Moose/Sal would be consistently driving the ball, but that hasn't happened. So, I'm good with switching things up. It was time. I still think Gordon could shift back to the top if those supposed middle of the lineup guys get it going. I don't like Alcides at leadoff, but he's probably the best option if not Gordon.

In other news... Myers hasn't been anything special in triple A this year...

Currently .275/.372/.422 and has hit .171 the last 10 games.

Picked up a bottle of Billy Butlers hit it a ton BBQ sauce today. KC trip complete.

We used it on some ribs last weekend.

Its pretty good - I think it tastes alot like Gates.

Do people still want to send Hosmer and Moose to AAA?

Didn't know if you guys had seen this, I thought it was cool.
Here's a gif of Yu Darvish, and his five main pitches, all overlapped. So you can see why this guy is so hard to hit. You never know what's going to come out of his hand, how fast, and where....

http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/20...ch-repertoire/

heh, no..we have no better options really. Ill just say that we wont ever win anything unless they develop into stars. We desperately need their bats to come alive. At this point in their careers they have been very average.

I could see KC working a trade around the All Star Break for a 2nd baseman. And if Frenchy continues to be Frenchy, he'll get DFA'ed and Lough will be brought up.

It's possible he's merely bored.

It's also possible, considering his immense K rate (40 in 117 ABs) that his new approach is getting exploited OR that the Rays are having him work on something (I know they did not like his OF defense, reportedly, but possibly they're tinkering with his hitting approach, too).

He has struck out 40 times in 117 ABs. That's a 34.2 percent K rate. This is HIGHER than Bubba Starling's extremely alarming K rate.

This is HIGHER than Drew Stubbs' MLB K rate. This is 7 points higher than Stubbs' career minor league K rate.

If you're wondering if this is merely a small sample size... if you look at the past two seasons, since Myers went to the power-focused approached, he STILL has a K rate higher than Stubbs. He has struck out 180 times in 639 AB since the start of the 2012 season.

That works out to 28.2 percent.

Let's compare that to guys Myers is commonly compared to.

Ryan Braun - Minor league K rate of 19.7 percent

Dale Murphy - Minor league K rate of 17.0 percent

Jayson Werth - Minor league K rate of 24.5 percent

Jay Bruce - Minor league K rate of 25.2 percent

Jeff Francoeur - Minor league K rate of 18 percent

Myers' K rate leads me to think he's much less Ryan Braun/Dale Murphy and much more Werth/Bruce, with a floor of Stubbs/Francoeur.

The umpire who screwed up the pitching change in Houston last night has been suspended for 2 games and fined.

Somebody has to show these umpires that they are not a goddamned institution.

Wouldn't that be something if he became the next Francoeur.

Moore may have an eye for em'

Just for some prospective on the season so far. Lets look at the season like an NFL season. For every 10 games in MLB is like one NFL game. So how are the Royals doing so far:

First 10 - 6-4 - Win
Second 10 - 6-4 - Win
Third 10 - 5-5 - Tie
4 Games in 4 - 1-3

Looking at it like a NFL season, the Royals would be 2-0-1. Getting close to halftime in Game 4.

This fails because 10-0 = 6-4 & vice versa. That's potentially a 64 game swing, which is actually about the number of games up in the air in any MLB season. Each team will win 50, and lose 50, it's the other 62 that decide their fate.

I like the analysis, just not applicable in my opinion.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story...1-million-deal

Parameters for a Hosmer deal??? Rizzo's putting up better numbers.

This makes me feel q little better about recent games. But I'm not sure it actually means anything. If they start winning again by sweeping the Angels, the winning might become consistent again.

Gotta upgrade the RF & 2nd Base positions!

I'd like to actually see Hosmer be good before we give him shit.

Yeah I hear you. But he's a Boras client. And if he does show something, his price tag goes way up. If you're confident in him...you go ahead and buy low for that potential. It's the only way we keep our stars with that wretched TV deal.

Meh, for a seven year deal, he may be worth the gamble.

I wasn't able to see to see the Sat or Sunday games...what's the scoop?

Nobody is dealing this early.

Johnson is much better at 2nd than Frenchy is in right.

Meet Billy Butler, the $8million zero-WAR player:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

Dear God, Frenchy is terrible.

so, they also have james shields as 0 war (replacement level). yeah, bullship

But he is -as a hitter. You were looking at the offensive WAR, here is the pitching WAR where he's already up to +1.6:


http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

This lineup is KILLING a great pitching staff. If we're truly "all-in", then GMDM doesn't wait until the trade deadline to upgrade this lineup. Move now, or at least in the next couple of weeks.

Howie Kendrick?
David DeJesus?
Andre Ethier?

I don't know...but we've gotta do something.

Yost needs to be gone by the 1st week of June if we are to have a chance if this slide continues if not sooner. All Star break will be too late. Don't think for a moment that Yost is not somewhat responsible for these young guys not reaching their potential in the batter's box either. Yost is about as motivating as Ferris Buehler's Civic Teacher. Buehler ? Buehler ? Buehler ? This last week exposed Yost big time and his lack of saavy managing of the game all the way around and needs to be gone IMO.

What do you mean? Most intelligent managers sac bunt in the first inning against the yankees.

I'm just sick of the black hole that is the bottom of our lineup. They kill rallys...and dreams.