So your opinion is the odds don’t change after Burkholder examines him? Really?

And it needs to work out “with absolution”?

All higher upside players drafted at premium positions later in the first round are typically larger risks. FAU has contributed effectively 0. Kingsley one round later was a huge net negative.

There were dozens of people on this forum who probably would’ve been okay trading 2 1’s and 2 2’s to get into the top 10 to take a tackle like Campbell or Membou.

Would that have been much less risky for the future of this team?

Hear weeee goooooo

You're full of ****ing shit, as usual

Prove it. ROFL

What is the sample size of previous offensive linemen sustaining this injury?

Feel free to use the link in my signature for a reference point.

In sniper mode tonight working on a AI model.

A study shows there is a 20% chance!

How does Burkholder examining him change the odds? As if he can somehow dictate that the kid's tendon will beat those odds just because it looks good?

I never said it needs to work out with absolution.

I have no issue with calculated risk. This exceeds normality on that front.

Thanks for pointing out Veach's misses when there aren't medical odds involved.

At Simmons talent level…zero!

Point: What are the character concerns? I have never heard anything specific on that. Second point: Will anyone in the media really question their decision to draft this guy and give us their reasoning?

Jesus Christ.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Simmons From 2023 vs Michigan. <br><br>This backside cutoff on the DT is absurd. Maybe pivots a little too much off the right foot, but the quickness to overtake and seal is insane. This is the kind of block that can create massive runs. <a href="https://t.co/2AlXbzjd2Y">pic.twitter.com/2AlXbzjd2Y</a></p>&mdash; Caleb James (@CJScoobs) <a href="https://twitter.com/CJScoobs/status/1915634761441161672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Left tackle is arguably the second most important position in football. We got a guy who could be elite at 32- that’s a gamble worth taking. We know that elite healthy left tackle prospects aren’t available at the end of the first round. The only way we could draft a prospect of this caliber is to trade up and give up draft capital like a future first. Veach was able to snag this guy and traded back a pick - win-win

ROFL

Oh God he has a nose ring. That's disgusting.

I don’t know what to tell you, dude. But if you don’t think examining a certain person can glean information that alters the conditional probabilities, then you’re just on a different wavelength from basic science and deduction.

This is almost as odd as your quest against the concept of “blackout drunk” as a real thing.

I love you during this time of year though. You’re a true treasure to this board. But you’re kinda weird with some of this.

Probably nothing and Beach spread the character issue rumors to have him drop! Great job Veach!

Mel Kiper lists 6 teams that were the biggest winners including….

The pick: Josh Simmons (No. 32)

The Chiefs added a fifth-rounder in a move back from No. 31 and addressed a big problem at left tackle with my No. 15 prospect. I can't say enough good things about this bookend to Day 1. Simmons was dinged during the predraft process because of his knee injury, which limited him to six games in 2024. But if healthy, he might have been the OT1 in the class. Seriously. He's consistent with terrific pass protection traits.

If you watched the Super Bowl, you know Patrick Mahomes' blindside was going to be an offseason focus. Kingsley Suamataia and Wanya Morris weren't the answers there, and Joe Thuney -- who moved outside from guard -- was traded. The Chiefs signed Jaylon Moore, but he was a backup in San Francisco, so he's not a sure thing. Simmons could be the long-term answer. He can help inside at guard, too, or potentially bump to right tackle, where Jawaan Taylor has been inconsistent.

I've posted this a few times but...

It's really the population, not the sample. it was 17 from 2009-10 season to the 2022-23 season. A handful more have been added since, and none have turned out favorably.

The data was 6 of 17 ever returned to play. 1 of 16 returned to play in as many games post-injury as pre-injury. 1 of 16 returned to start in as many games post-injury as pre-injury. 2 of 16 returned to their PFF-graded level of prior performance. I'm assuming the 1 slot discrepancy between 17 and 16 is 1 returned to play but never actually got to see any live game time.

No risk it, no biscuit.

As a perennial SB contender - this may be the only time in Mahomes' career that we get a chance at a guy like this. Remember everyone lamenting about how we're never going to be in position to get one of the - if not the top LT in a draft? You submit that pick the second Simmons is still on the board when you're up. They knew Philly wasn't taking him. So you fill a 5th round hole and get a guy who probably would've gone in the top 5-10 slots if not for the injury.

Could it blow up in their faces? Anything is possible. Anything except the Chiefs getting a consensus top 2 or 3 LT in the Mahomes-era without taking a shot at a guy coming off a very concerning injury.

You miss 100% of the chances you don't take. I'm sure the training staff vetted him. If they're on board, so am I. The dude has some tape that looks like Silverback. Gotta take this chance.

Obviously a huge gamble, absent of trading up I guess it's going to be hard to fix LT without one, and let's be honest, we need picks, there's plenty of gaps coming up in this roster.

Not where I'd have gone but if they improve the DL and get a RB upgrade with the remaining picks then this is still a good draft that does most of what we need it to.

He probably didn't help defenders up after pancake blocks.

Subjective probability versus objective probability. Burkholder's examination is subjective and would lead one to believe that the probability of success may be higher than the currently measured probability that it will be.

I agree, and he is a lineman and not a running back, etc. Most lineman in college and the pros where custom fitted knee braces in every game. He's 22, young and hungry and probably willing to put in more work for that first real payday.

We're still at the point we have to take fliers on guys if we want to stay on top and draft in the last two picks.

Look on the bright side, if Simmons becomes a bust, at least Chiefs got a 5th round pick in return

One thing that I sort of like - and it’s probably dumb - is that his stance and silhouette remind me a lot of Trent Williams.

Drafted by us. Only 2 in the last 34 years despite being a factory.

I think with this guy available when he was, this was a no-brainer. Was it a risk, sure…but every draft pick is—-you win some and you lose some. Our boys have done a good job generally speaking.

I’m astonished by all the keyboard warrior dumbasses who think they know more about picking players than the guys we pay to do it. Drafting is not an exact science, but doubting Veatch and the organization on this is pure dumbassery my mind. Sheesh.:rolleyes:

If Simmons is never fully recovered, and a bust, he will be exactly like CEH and FAU and Skyy Moore. A wasted pick that a Super Bowl team with Mahomes at QB can withstand.

If he recovers, and gets back to 100%, this is a FN steal. I personally think there were 2 first round tackles, and we weren't getting up in the top 10, so getting Simmons at 32, a LT with Franchise Pillar upside, could be incredible.

But, again, if he is a bust, so what. We have wasted 1st and 2nd round picks quite a bit recently, and we have been in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls.

Uhh, obviously. It’s always subjective. But you’re just assuming ex ante he’s the average case. And as more information becomes available, that’s no longer the most informed judgment.

But yes, it’s always going to be subjective. Your analysis is largely based off PFF grades pre- and post-injury. Is that not subjective as well? Does that invalidate the entire study as a result? Of course not.

I said in the draft forum a week ago or so that this pick only makes sense in that you're throwing data aside and saying "So, you're telling me there's a chance?" It's akin to what your saying here. My opinion was, you take that type of shot in round 3, though, not round 1.

It's not a stability issue, it's a power conversion issue with this injury.

Love me some Dante84 draft threads!

Yep. I wasn't a master debater in high school. Guess that a law degree and trial advocacy training don't matter.

Of course, logical fallacies are pretty much meaningless when it comes to real world persuasion (see LW argument that the abortion question turns on "control of her body," while a VERY compelling argument that has moved MILLIONS of people for more than 50 years, it's built on a logical fallacy. The abortion argument CAN'T turn on this question. Instead, it's an obvious case of "begging the question." Logically unsound, but undeniably effective advocacy).

It's not about using subjective PFF grades. The data on ever playing in or starting as many games as prior to the injury is objective and actually less favorable to him than the data using the PFF grade on "return to prior performance." Using that PFF-based metric in the argument for/against drafting him in round 1 increased his odds from 6.5% to 13%, so I used that as a "best case" type of situation. Arguing on purely objective data makes the pick look far worse, not better. Now we're talking 1 case in 25 years and roughly 20-22 players (if we add the guys that have had it since '23) where it truly "worked out."

He really does have to be a "unicorn" as duncan pointed out.

A couple of comments about those injury stats.

First, statistics on "returned to play" are not definitive. Different internet sites show different numbers, but in general roster retention from year to year is about 70 percent or less. I'm being conservative here since most sites show it lower. So if 70 percent of players come back that means that ANY group of 17 players will have 5 who don't return to play the following year. So that means your baseline is that 12 of the 17 return to play. If the post-injury guys come back at a 6 of 17 rate, that's a 50 percent return from injury. Not ideal, of course, but a lot better than 20 or 30 percent.

Second, the 20 to 30 percent figures are from the instant of injury. So when a guy is down on the ground, you can point at him and say, "He's got a 20 percent chance of coming back." From that point on, your knowledge gets better. Two years later, you can point at the same guy and confidently say with 100 percent certainty that he came back or he didn't. So during that two year period, your likelihood of guessing correctly gets constantly better, because you're moving down a timeline from being unsure to being sure. Since Mr. Simmons is X months down the timeline from injury, the odds of guessing his likelihood of returning are a lot better than 20 percent.

Put another way, let's say that we're firing ten simultaneous arrows at a target 100 yards away, and we have a 20 percent chance of hitting the bullseye when we fire each one. Two of them will hit and eight of them will miss.

Now imagine that we can freeze time when those arrows are 25 yards from our bow. We can look at the ten arrows and pretty confidently pick some that are clearly off target, and weed them out. Now we let them move another 25 yards and we do it again. We weed out more arrows that are off target and keep watching the ones that look close. We do it again 25 yards later and we can pretty confidently pick the two arrows that are going to hit the bullseye.

We're not evaluating Mr. Simmons at the moment that his arrow was fired. We're evaluating him well down range, which means we're better able to predict if he's on target or off.

This is going to be a big win for us. The Chiefs organization is competent and well run. I don't care if teams like the Chargers or Bears make a different decision, because they're usually going to be wrong.

This may turn out to be the best chiefs pick since McDuffie - what a steal

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Chiefs got one of my favorite players in the class to study on film in Josh Simmons. Perfect spot at pick 32. <a href="https://t.co/cStRawdBsR">https://t.co/cStRawdBsR</a> <a href="https://t.co/QG9Z8y71nw">pic.twitter.com/QG9Z8y71nw</a></p>&mdash; Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1915613741665694067?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I’d have more confidence in a medical evaluation here if they were able to test strength and explosion in the leg.

If him squatting 225 pounds is being touted by his PR team yesterday as positive sign of recovery, I have hard time believing they ran him through tests that would show if the tendon functions as well as it did before the injury. Im not a doctor or PT, but the PhD PT I know told me that’s the true test of the repair - not just is the tendon whole/did it work/is the joint clean, but can the tendon do as much as before - and that the answer has always been that it is less than it was.

I did knock out some 225-lb one-leg squats at the gym today, though, in Simmons honor.

He will be fine. People are always overly afraid of injuries for young players.

A guy like that isn't going to be there in round 3.

You may end up being 100% right about this. I'm a draft nerd, but you pass me by many orders of magnitude and you're one of the people I enjoy reading most in the runup to the draft.

If Simmons flames out - which is possible - you won't see me ever blaming Veach for drafting him. If you're the KC Chiefs you take this chance because it may never come again without burning a bunch of valuable draft capital, which you simply cannot do when you have a franchise QB like Patrick.

I think we look back 3 years from now in amazement that we got an All-Pro LT with the last pick in the 1st round.

Hell, I'm not expecting All-Pro by any means. Give me a solid guy that can stay healthy. Dion Dawkins has been healthy for 99% of Josh Allen's games the last 7 years. Insane luck for Buffalo at the LT spot. Dawkins is not an All-Pro guy, but he's very solid. I'm ready for Buffalo & Allen to jump on the "instability" train at Left Tackle, which Mahomes has been riding ever since Fisher went down in January 2021.

We can argue the injury all we want but there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid goes the Patriots at 4 if he never got injured. He has elite traits, excellent footwork, good technique and a good anchor.

There’s a reason a lot of well know media folks and Brandon Thorn love this kids talent. It’s just the injury and character concerns (which Andy has always taken on).

If they are right about his knee this is going to be the best pick in this draft of any team.

What a handsome well spoken gentleman, welcome aboard brah.

They absolutely do define RTP in the study.

We shall see what happens. My trust level on this pick is 0%. How's that statistic. :D

Overreaction x10000

Actually, there's another issue on "return to play". Probably 50 percent of the league plays fewer snaps than the previous year just due to random variation. So if you take a sample of healthy players, roughly half of them will play fewer snaps than the previous year.

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I'm just wondering, but do your stats compare a 34-year-old on his third contract and how he recovered from it compared to a 22-year-old out of college who is basically looking to make it?

Technically, this guy isn't even an adult until 3 more years. It's easier to recover the younger you are.

He'll go down as the best tackle in Chiefs history ahead of Willie Roaf and John Alt. Bookmark this.

Rainman, you've CLOSE to the real issue here, but you're only hitting the edges of the target.

Part of the problem is, most people don't know much about study design. I know you do marketing analysis, so you get MOST of it, but do you have much of a background in hard science?

The key problem is this is nothing more than what doctors call a pilot study. Meaning, a small sample of cases to see if further research is warranted.

Not only is the sample size way too small for percentages to mean much, MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY CHANGES RAPIDLY.

So, they had to go back to 2009 to get even a handful of cases, and surgical techniques could have vastly improved over 16 years. Thus, the prognosis for a patient in 2009 could be vastly different than in 2022 (at the end of sample).

For example, if you asked about the prognosis of a pitcher with a rotator cuff injury in 1974, well....a sample of orthopedic literature would have said, "give up, he's toast." As we all know, Tommy Jobn went on to win more game AFTER Dr. Jobe repaired his rotator cuff than he won before his shoulder surgery on his way to the HOF.

16 years later, it was a vastly different world.

Now, I don't know if that's the case for patellar knee injuries. But crow doesn't either. However, the Chiefs' team doctor presumably knows the state of the art and Veach has better sources of information than any of us.

as always we wish for the best that all Chiefs draft picks are future HOFers

Yeah I'm curious about the age of these other players that had this injury.

One thing that worries me is that no other team thought it'd be worth the risk to try and take him in the 1st round. I'm sure multiple teams looked him over and KC was the only one that thought he would get back to previous form?

It is really concerning because of the guys we could have drafted. There were several players that fell that would have been great additions. I wanted Burden so damn bad, too.

Here’s some optimism to counterbalance the hand-wringing over Josh Simmons’ patella injury! The doomsayers act like it’s a career-ender, but let’s get real: Correll Buckhalter tore his patellar tendon in 2004, worked with trainer Rick Burkholder—yes, that one- and came back to torch defenses with 5.0, 4.9, and 5.3 yards per carry from 2006-2008. Simmons, a 21-year-old freak, is already squatting 225 pounds six months post-surgery and got the green light for a mid-April pro day. With Burkholder’s Midas touch (remember Mahomes’ three-week patella comeback in 2019?) and cutting-edge rehab, Simmons is storming toward training camp, ready to claim his throne as an elite left tackle.

This ain’t just about recovery—Simmons is a rare breed worth the No. 31 pick. His 2024 Ohio State tape? Pure dominance—lightning footwork, a brick-wall anchor, and a nasty streak that screams, “You ain’t touching my QB!” He was LT1 before the injury, and the Chiefs, with Veach and Burkholder running the show, snatched a future All-Pro while others slept. Like Trey Smith in 2021, Simmons is a “risk” that’ll make rivals cry. He’s built to stonewall Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt, locking down Mahomes’ blindside for a decade. Chiefs Kingdom, quit doubting and start believing in our next cornerstone. Simmons is coming, and he’s going to help transform this offense back into a machine.

Josh Simmons’ patella injury is a tired scare tactic—Buckhalter’s comeback under Rick Burkholder proves it’s beatable, and Simmons is crushing his rehab. At 21, with elite skills and a mean streak, he’s the perfect No. 31 pick to protect Mahomes from AFC pass rushers. The Chiefs’ savvy move secures a franchise left tackle for the dynasty, so haters can step aside while Chiefs Kingdom gets loud!

Andy and Rick know.

I'm not sure that it matters, Trey Smith was a 2nd to 3rd round pick and we got him in the sixth due to medical concerns. I'm not saying this will pan out the same, but if it does it's a grand slam.

How did you manage that without stumbling over your 20 inch PP?

Of course EVERYONE on CP can squat 600lbs, so I'm not really impressed.

Watched em all year dude was an athletic wall for Howard 1 pressure in 6 games. Would've loved to see his final numbers. I'm over the moon with the value.

Andy Reid brought up Correll Buckhalter in his press conference tonight. That does make you feel a lot better knowing this coach and trainer have already seen major success in the same injury situation.

I haven't heard that name in years as a Nebraska fan, he actually tore it in 04' and 05' and played another 5 years averaging over 4-5 ypc.

He's also a running back, and Simmons won't be asked to cut that much and run hundreds of yards.

He went to Denver and had 12 carries for 113 vs. the Chiefs in 09'

I suggest a nickname and move past Josh. That will help all move on. Per Simmons maybe a little too Ozarkie, though this place loves a tart

Yeah, but the sample size is way too low to put any weight behind those "percentages."

It's what hard science types call "false precision."

Justin "Dancing to the Oldies" Simmons

Or The Acolyte

Simmons/Moore
Suamatia/Caliendo
Humphrey/Nourzad
Smith/Hanson
Taylor/Morris

Probably add/upgrade the IOL with a pick, otherwise that should be an improvement from the last couple years.

Yeah, I've got a ton of respect for Burtholomew Vechmiskinowski and all...

But you simply cannot ignore the history of lack of recovery from this injury. It's a lot to risk for a 1st round pick. Just glad we'll be picking again soon...

This is the exact type of pick that makes you focus on the risk if its your team, focus on the potential reward if it's a rival team.

Let's be honest, if the Eagles took him (and needed a LT) we'd be pissed.

I'd much rather take a player of Simmons situation - a top 3 talent for our single biggest weakness with a risk from injury, rather than a Felix type pick.

Plenty of time to recover, plenty of time to get used to the team & environment, can't wait to see him smash dlineman all over the place in January 2026

I’d like to see us take Logan Brown in the fourth round. Take over RT after next year. Then we can kick Morris inside.

Morris didn’t look terrible at RT. Looked a lot more natural.

I thought so too. But he still scared me on the edge

I'd rather have a RT who looks good or great at RT, than someone who doesn't look terrible

My money is on Moore taking the RT job from Taylor. We have two years of control for him on a reasonable deal and Taylor can and will GTFO after next year. Moore starts at RT and is the backup LT.

I’m loving this more and more. Reid has to be salivating at the amount of flexibility he has now.

Man, I feel so much better after sleeping on this and seeing even experts who hate us saying we got a steal. We now have 3 starting caliber OTs. Last year we made the Super Bowl with ONE. We get Rice back, Pacheco fully healthy, Brown and Juju back.

Damn, this could end up being the best looking team on paper that we’ve had in the whole run if Veach plays his cards right the next two days.

We got a fatty. They are important as we all have seen. No problem.

I hope this works out. I mean we had to go o line.

Unfortunately I am not as comfortable still after a night of sleeping on it. Yes he is a steal if he truly recovers from a pretty serious injury like he had.

But if he isn't as well recovered as they are saying then we have wasted another first round pick....and what concerns me is the possibility of the team wanting to see a long term replacement at LT that they may not have as discerning an eye.

They said Gracie like PONIES, not PERONIES!!

It's a high risk/high reward gamble. I'm good with it. Let's hope it works out. But that's a nasty injury he's coming back from. When I tore my ACL the ER doctor initially misdiagnosed it as a patellar tendon rupture, and an ACL tear is much better.

Just an FYI, Tommy John tore his elbow ligament, not his rotator cuff. And he’s not in the HOF. :)

They’re putting full trust into Rick Burkholder’s decision.

He ultimately gave them the nod to draft him.

I’m here for it, Rick is a very smart dude. They brought him so he can check him out, in the end Rick obviously said he’s good to go.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Andy Reid: Josh Simmons will ‘definitely’ be ready for training camp <a href="https://t.co/4KumJfkNkM">https://t.co/4KumJfkNkM</a></p>&mdash; Arrowhead Pride (@ArrowheadPride) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArrowheadPride/status/1915652891098165251?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And that's the key everyone seems to be missing.

The repair itself seemed to pass with flying colors. Great.

They are still guessing as to if he'll regain 100% flexibility, strength, explosion, power and torque in that leg - and won't know until he's cleared, which sounds like Training Camp. So we wait, and cross our fingers.

Huge risk, which interestingly enough - the rest of the league wasn't concerned about his medical, yet 31 teams passed on a "Top 5 talent."

Hint: Teams know the stats/study kccrow posted and said, "nah we're good."

So can we cut that POS Taylor next year?!!

Too soon, false start!