I'm going with Watson after watching SAGA45's videos.

I could see gaining a single MPH or two, but gaining 6 seems pretty hefty.

Dude threwas for 3 TDs and 420 yards against one of the best college defenses in awhile. I've watched his tape I don't see where his lack of arm strength hurts him as much as poor decision making and shit footwork. You guys act like he's Ken Dorsey he isnt.

Per Matt Miller's podcast..

-NYJ like Mitch Trubisky. Real possibility he could go there.
-Trubisky to Bills is a real possibility and Watson is very possible if Trubisky is gone.
-Pat Mahomes seems like a Cardinal. Matt doesn't think he will get past them. They absolutely love him.
-Kizer might go to Cleveland in the early 2nd rd. Big questions on why he wasn't good last year. Apparently his answers to teams seemed to really hurt his stock.
-Matt listed Davis Webb as a possibility to the Chiefs. Talked about his football IQ being very good and appealing.
-Peterman is a rd 2 pick. Could be a great pick for Cleveland at 52 if they don't get a QB early.

Thinking about Davis Webb, he is extremely similar to Paxton Lynch who we were rumored to want to trade up for. No experience in pro style concepts or drop backs, rocket arm, huge body frame.
Big difference between the 2 is Webb's reported impressive football IQ. Seems like Andy would love his smarts.

Radar gun don't lie.

Drew Brees and Tom Brady say what up. This isnt baseball.

Youre using a flawed metric that rated Kessler and Flacco the same. How bout production?405 and 420 in 2 games against Alabama is meaningless?

I could deal with Webb.... he has the natural look. But would we have to get him at 27 is the question. As a team who is presumably going to be sitting a rookie QB for the 2017 season, it would make sense to take the guy at 27 for sure.

Obviously I love Mahomes' potential, but I could deal with Webb for sure. At the end of the day, I always go back to the fact that no QB is going to reach their highest potential without a strong setup from their franchise. KC can provide that for whoever is picked.

Read the article I posted in the draft forum...you'll like Webb after you're done.

He's got most of the tools to be a good starter in the league.

pugs:

I only saw the edited version of your original post in this thread. I am not going to press you about your source, BUT, did you get an indication of "the price point" the Chiefs were expecting to have to meet in pursuing Mahomes? It seems more and more that he may go in the early teens, and more specifically it sounds like Arizona will take him at 13.

Wondering if your source indicated an expectation to have to move up if he was target #1.

According to the Arizona BBS Arianna isn't sold any QB in the 1st round

2 things that bother mecabout Webb:

1) Long delivery
2) Not a great pocket sense. Internal clock needs to be better.

He has a hose of an arm and seems intelligent. He also has 2-3 WTF throws each game. His UCLA tape is frustrating. He should have been picked multiple times and got lucky. He will stare down receivers at times.

I don't like him at 27. If no Mahomes, I'd prefer Kizer.

I agree. I would take Kizer before him too.

My point is that this draft is very unique with QB's who have a lot of tools to build on. I'm looking back at previous drafts and not seeing anything like this.
2014 had a lot of QB's, but JFF and Bridgewater were frail. 2012 had Weeden, Foles and Brock so it's pretty close, but Weeden was old as hell.

Kizer and Webb are the 4/5 guys in the class and they both have A+ size, arms and willingness to learn. They both got benched and both had bad supporting casts around them in 2016. The point is that we have real options in this draft. Kizer and Webb aren't much different front Paxton Lynch as a prospect IMO.

Personally my board is Watson,Mahomes, Trubisky, Kizer, Webb. IMO the first 3 are gone early. I would love either Kizer or Webb, but I prefer Kizer.

1 qb since 08 has been successful throwing under 55. I'm not banking a pick in an outlier.

So we're gonna base this on production vs alabama? Check out the qbs who've had big games against them recently. Not exactly the whose who of nfl qbing.

Yeah unfortunately there was no indication of how much they might be willing to give up or how far they would go, but, McCaffrey and Mahomes would both likely require trades into the top 12 to get, if not higher. So, maybe they are willing to go there?

Boy you have to be sold on them to pay that kind of a price - yikes.

And that's where he needs to get to even have adequate velocity.

With his interception issues and arm strength problems, I'm out on Watson. I could talk myself into Kizer, Trubisky or even Webb but I'm a hard pass on Watson. I do not like the guy at all. Running quarterbacks don't make it in the NFL and if you take away the guys legs, he's Peterman but more reckless.

The 'winner' shit just doesn't apply. Again, there is simply no correlation to winning in college and winning in the pros.

If Ken Dorsey ran faster, that's exactly who he'd be.

I think back to when the Falcons traded up from 27 to 6 to draft Julio Jones. Everyone thought the trade was too rich, even Belichick told Dimitroff not to do it. But look at it now.

I don't think there is any way they make the Super Bowl without Julio Jones. In our case, we are talking about the most important position of course, QB. And so, if I'm the Chiefs and I am 100% sold that there is a QB in this draft that can lead the franchise for 10-15 years, they should give up what is necessary to draft him.

DO IT NEXT YEAR FOR A REAL QB

Why do people continue to insist that Brady has a noodle arm?

Watch the sportscience episode - Brady can hum it in at 60 mph. Brady has a goddamn cannon when he needs it.

And this Drew Brees shit has to stop. Please. Drew Brees is historically precise. There's arguably never been a more accurate passer in NFL history than Drew Brees. Again, it gets back to calling every undersized righthanded pitcher Greg Maddux. No - these are the exceptions that prove the rules. They're the guys that show just how perfect you have to be to succeed with the limited tools they have. Oh, and Drew Brees threw 52, FYI.

Watson also has a very quick release. 0.35 according to sports science.

Now, I don't know what a slow delivery is, but for the heck of it, I am going to go 0.10 more for 0.45.

At 49 mph, Watson's ball is traveling at 24 yards a second upon release, or 2.4 yards every tenth of a second.

At 55 mph, a ball is traveling at 27 yards a second upon release, or 2.7 yards every tenth of a second.

If Watson gets the ball out one tenth of a second quicker, it takes 8 tenths for the two passes to be at the same point on the field, or 21.6 yards downfield when that happens.

If Watson increases his speed to 51, and holds that one tenth edge in release time, the distance goes out to 33.8 yards before the two passes would be at the same point.

Here, I'm bringing this over from the draft thread for those that don't hang out there:

http://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showpost....&postcount=393

And that's on a simple 15 yard out; it's a throw that you HAVE to be able to make. Moreover, that requires that you cut down half the field. That same distance to the far hash is about an 8-10 yard out. So you're effectively eliminating half the field with Watson because if he has to throw an out route to the far side, anything past 10 yards is going to take 4+ seconds longer to get there than a QB with a strong arm and that ****er is getting housed.

That's an INCREDIBLE amount of time and folks are just ignoring it.

Release makes a difference, to be sure. As does anticipation. But that gets back to the Brees comparison; you have to be perfect. And I don't see that in Watson at all.

I haven't seen the SS you're referring to; does it compare most of the prospects releases? It's damn hard to pick that up just by watching clips. I always felt like his release was about average since he comes over the top like he does but I am open to being convinced otherwise.

I haven't seen it either. I would like too. Just saw Watson has the quickest one at 0.35, which is the same as Aaron Rodgers.

I have not been able to find any other times.

Follow up, Coogs - who in this draft would you say has a 'slow' release?

Because seriously, I can't find a scouting report on any of these guys that doesn't say 'quick release' somewhere in it. The release thing is pretty uniform for most passers these days and I don't see anything in Watson that leads me to believe his release is appreciably quicker than Mahomes, Webb or any of the other, much stronger armed passers available.

That arm's a liability, man.

With that noodle arm, he is no better than a Charlie Ward

I can't answer your question DJ. Wish I could.

This is weird.

I keep seeing this same guy tweeting shit about the sportscience episode (Marcus Mosher) but otherwise there's no reference to it anywhere and I can't find it.

He also says that the same episode gave Chad Kelly the highest marks they've given to any QB since Jamies Winston.

That's all I can find on it too. :shrug:

Likewise. Man, you're just an asshole for not doing my legwork for me.

I want a new QB badly enough that I'm open to being convinced on any of these guys. If I could find something that says Watson goes from decision to delivery .15 seconds faster than Mahomes, I'd reconsider him.

I still wouldn't love him because that lack of velocity means he's having to put a hump on the ball that's easier for a DB to break on even if it comes out sooner (the guys that watch the WR rather than the QB don't care about release times; they're not breaking on the release, which brings us back to the anticipation argument but I digress).

But I'd at least consider him. I just think the fact that he has less arm strength than Kellen Moore is pretty disconcerting. It's not just that it's average, it's that its genuinely awful.

Well, Watson has a Papa John's endorsement so there is that....

Can you provide specific examples of Watsons arm causing interceptions? Again the several games I watched it his INT's were due to stupid decisions where he simply didn't see the LB dropping into coverage or where his mechanics specifically his legs were not good. I understand you don't like him as a prospect but this arm velocity thing was something just brought up a few weeks ago. Nobody was bashing his arm strength previously. They also didn't track arm velocity when Brees/Brady were at the combine.

I'll go against the grain here and say Watson is a great fit for this system. Yes he doesn't have a strong arm reminds me of Smith but more willing to make throws, better at getting the ball downfield and more athletic. Certainly can win with him.

I'm really high on Webb. He has all the measurables and seems like a really smart kid. The fact that he's been learning the WCO the entire off-season doesn't hurt either.

I don't see KC moving up at all in the first two days.

I see us looking at a draft full of talent and taking what falls...

Yeah he's pretty money within 10 yards. Hate his pocket presence though.

I called it average prior to all the combine stuff; I was never a fan of his arm strength.

And no, I really can't but I haven't gone through all his throws. I just can't see any way that having a below average arm isn't going to impact him on timing routes. The WCO has all those short, quick routes where space is tight; if you can't fire it in there, you're operating with no margin for error.

And I'm aware they didn't track velocity then, but they've been able to determine it now. You're not using Brady or Brees as prospects, you're using their pro performances to support your argument. As a pro, Brady can hit 60 so he's really not the argument you're wanting to make here.

And if you draft Watson hoping for Brees, you're a hell of a lot more likely to get Pat White for your efforts.

If there is a hyper-run on qbs early, I hope KC stays out. Some serious talent will drop as a result. Guys I think will slip:

Cook
Barnett
Humphrey
Peppers
Cunningham
White
Davis

Hey, I'm trying to do your leg work! :D

Seriously, I agree with pretty much everything you say. I just have Watson a bit ahead of Mahomes. Only reason is SAGA45's tapes in the draft forum. Watson looks smooth and confident, and Mahomes looks just like King said he did against Oklahoma. It's hard to describe.

Agree 100%...

Nah not Brees but I think his ceiling is something like a QB who's every bit athletic as Mariotta and could develop into McNabb as a passer.

What's going to be hilarious is when we're at this point next year and we're still picking in the 20's range in the draft. We'll be out of range of the top QB's and people will continue to say it's too risky to trade up for a QB. We'll be in the same situation as Houston, a team with an amazing defense and excellent talent on offense but absolutely nobody at QB to make them a legitimate contender.

Cook - hard pass; we've discussed why

Barnett - Great production but if you believe in SPARQ, he's a big time risk. The athleticism may just not be there.

Humphrey - eh; just not enthused about a CB in the first due to Peters and the depth of this class. There are starters that will be there in the 3rd.

Peppers - has no home here. Has no home in most systems. Weird tweener of a player that reminds me a bit of Su'a Cravens in that you need to draft him to just the right team. If you commit to making him Deone Bucannon, I guess you could make that work if you have a strong run-support ILB alongside him. Interesting pick but probably too much risk for me.

Cunningham - odd prospect but I like him. Would most likely be fine with this pick.

White - Surely you don't mean Tre'Davious. He's a 2nd round pick, IMO. At best.

Davis - seems unlikely but if he's there you have to be excited about grabbing him. **** it, at that point just go ahead and take Chad Kelly in the 4th and pray.

I have a feeling he's talking about Jarrad Davis

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/greg-c...165953341.html

Good comparison and breakdown of Webb and Mahomes.

No I was referencing Cory. Some are citing drops and ability to seperate as concerns. I really like him.
Barnett intrigues me too. He looks dumpy and doesn't explode with measurables, but he scraps and gets the job done.

I just listed guys you hear whispers about with regards to a fall - not that I think they would necessarily be a fit for KC.

That also wouldn't be a 'drop' though; like White. If anything, taking White or Davis at 27 would be a bit of a reach, but one made knowing that neither of them will be available for you later. You don't do it with White because there are too many alternatives.

But if Dorsey thinks Davis is a 3-down backer (he might be), I guess you could justify taking him there. It would not be a pick I'm excited about, but I'd deal...I guess.

I figured he meant Corey Davis, who would be a genuine 'drop' if he fell to 27. More likely would be Ross and he'd be a nice get there as well.

If the Chiefs elect not to take a quarterback in the first round, they shouldn't take one until late in the draft.

There's nothing worse than drafting a back up caliber quarterback in the middle of the draft considering you are passing on players in a very deep draft who could push for starting roles.

Yeah, but with the money backup qbs are getting these days, having a good one for cheap can bring alot of value.

I'm liking davis Webb more and more after seeing your posts in him. Maybe trade up from the 2nd to get him?

Can't disagree with much of that at all.

There's no question that you'll have to beat every one of those stupid, across the body, late and over the middle throws that Mahomes makes out of him. Hell, if he completes one, bench his ass for the rest of the series. You cannot, cannot, cannot make that pass. Ever.

But as has been noted, without those concerns, he's not available after the 5th pick, that's how good that arm is. That's how bright the flashes are. If you want that kind of Aaron Rodgers passer to EVER be a Chief, that's the kind of risk you have to take.

Or you live with 10 more years of Smith/Petermans. In the middle there's a Davis Webb. I dunno, am I crazy to see a little bit of Stafford in there? He doesn't have Stafford's pure arm strength, but even Stafford doesn't have the fastball he once did. I guess you could call him a little more mobile version of Flacco?

Nowhere near the ceiling but probably more floor. I'd take Webb in the 2nd 100 times out of 100 over Peterman in the 3rd (or 5th, for that matter). But it seems unlikely that Webb makes it to the 2nd and I'm not excited about taking him in the first. Maybe I just haven't looked at him closely enough.

If we like him, take him rd 1. Get the 5th year option and don't trade up a fortune to move up in rd 2.

Double-digit teams told the kid he's a first rd player. It was also said on Matt Miller's podcast that he might not be too highly sought after in rd 1 but he'll have a giant bullseye on his back in rd 2.

IMO he won't fall past 35.

I think Corey Davis is going to be a stud. Dont see how he drops to even the late teens.

We would have beaten Pitrsburgh with a developed Watson at QB...yes or no?

I say probably yes

Darnold is going #1, so he's out. Then you are probably looking at Rosen, Allen, or Falk.

I don't know. I can see that those are probably better prospects, but I hate to count on the future a year in advance. That class might look similar to this one a year from now.

With John Ross rising and Davis not being able to put together a workout predraft it is possible he is on the fall. He is one of the few non qb picks I would be excited about.

In the second I am all aboard the Sidney Jones train. He is one of the best corners in this class and would be an absolute steal. We don't need him this year and would be a perfect plug in if Mitchell doesn't play the way he did this last year or isn't retained

I missed the whole drop part. My bad.

Matt Miller reported that Jarrad Davis to Oakland is picking up steam. I have no doubt he's a 3 down LB. If you want to be sold on him, I'd watch some 2015 tape where he was healthy all year. There's a reason us Florida guys on CP love him!

If Webb is your guy, you take him at 27 so you have the 5th year option. **** having to trade up in the 2nd while only getting 4 years.

I'm just not sold he's a franchise qb, so I'd lessen the blow by getting a legit olayer in the first and a potential qb in the 2nd.

It's probably still worth the risk of him panning out, taking him in the first, but I'm nervous about passing up so many good players

Don't get me wrong I'd be scared as shit myself, but I don't think Dorsey/Reid go with a QB in the first 2 rounds that they're not extremely confident in.

You're getting a legit player in the 2nd of this draft as well.

So really, there's no upshot to using that 2nd on Webb as well as the cost of the trade-up, just so you can shell game that pick a bit. If you like him well enough to trade up for him in the 2nd, just use your first on him.

Or take Chad Kelly in the 5th. **** if I know, man. This is a weird draft.

I dunno. I think if I'm gonna trade up, it'd be for Trubisky or Mahomes and I'm not sure but what Trubisky doesn't end up as an Alex Smith ish QB. Atleast with Mahomes he has the big arm and the upside.

The more I see of this stuff, the more I'm fine with sitting at 27 and seeing what happens. If one falls to say 24, sure I'd flip a 3rd to go get him. But more likely, I'm sitting at 27 and taking whoever is there that I like.

I'm just happy I get to sit back and bitch loudly about whatever happens.

If Mahomes falls to 27 and we pass on him, I'll burn buildings down. But that's not going to happen. A) He won't fall and B) we won't pass if he does. So we're safe there.

But that's literally the only 'sunshine and lollypops' scenario. Everything else is taking someone like Webb or Kizer, IMO, a little too early. Or paying dearly to move up and grab Mahomes. Or {shudder} dooming ourselves to another season of Alex Smith and/or another 5 seasons of younger versions of the same schlock.

And it ain't. my. job. And man am I glad that's the case. Because there's a whole lot of landmines for Dorsey this year and whatever he does, a whole lotta people are probably gonna be pissed. Just a nasty draft to figure out.

Atleast the younger versions are cheaper. I guess. I dunno.

Davis Webb has about 3 years experience, appears to have all the intangibles and has the same elite arm as Mahomes. Add to that he's 6'5 230 goddamn pounds.

The potential upside of both him and Kizer is the same as Lynch last year. Guys like that that are pumped as 1st rd talents are never available that late.

Webbs injury history scares me a little. Shoulder surgery and ankle surgery.

I also guess I blocked out that he was at Tech and Mahomes beat him out after the injuries.

Has there ever been a draft that literally nobody knows if any QBs will go in the first round or if 5 go in the first round?

And if I had to choose between the two of them I am taking Kizer.

Webb strikes me as a kid who has worked for everything he has got, which is fantastic, but I think there is a definite ceiling to his development. He is less athletic than Kizer and is somewhat of a statue in the pocket. Webb reminds me a lot of a slightly more accurate Nick Foles. Kizer is a more athletic, less accurate version of Carson Palmer.

The only thing that really bugs me about Kizer is his character make up. He comes off as being a bit phony. Maybe sitting and learning for a while will clue him in to how to be a pro. Webb oozes confidence, but can he back it up?
I also like what Kizer has shown on the whiteboard with coaches during this draft process. He is definitely more acclimated to verbiage and pro concepts compared to these air raid guys.

Mahomes is my wish.
Kizer is my consolation prize.

I'm just not a fan of Kizer, I don't really like guys with potential character issues at QB. It's worked out before obviously but we'll see.

but they were confident in Smiff, so wtf do they really know?

I'm not a Kizer fan either. Would rather have Davis Webb. For as big as Webb is, he moves like a smaller man imo.

I keep getting that impression and trying to clear it from my mind as well. For some reason, I just keep seeing a Foles clone with a slightly higher ceiling.

Jameis Winston says hi.

I think the Kizer concerns are overblown with regards to his character. Personally I think he is a socially awkward kid who maybe got caught trying too hard to say the right things instead of being honest with himself.

Not like he's raped women or got arrested multiple times.

Yep. Cheap and not broken. :)

No, but he got benched multiple times and in football terms that's just as bad. He also didn't play very well for all but 2 games last season. That's a red flag to me.

Kizer's concern should be his statistical regression in college the same way Barkley, Freeman and Ponder, etc did and the concern he might turn out the same way as them

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comment...e_year_before/

That wont get us a super bowl :(

I am aware. It's not a conclusion I'm fond of.

That would be a total Chiefs thing though. Wait 30 years and then get a Nick Foles im trying to envision what that would look like? 10 years with some mixed 10-6 years and a few playoff wins. Shit then they go back to the recycled QBs and were at year 60 since a superbowl appearance.

2011: Cam Newton (locker, gabbert, ponder all busts), Dalton
2012: Lucky, RG3, Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Foles, Cousins
2013: EJ, Glennon, Geno ( ROFL)
2014: Bortles, bridgwater, carr
2015: winston, mariota, Siemian (7th round)
2016: goff, wentz, lynch, dak

Still think this is this year we wait it out and take another chance at a 3rd/4th rounder hoping we find the next Dak/RW/cousins. If so, 2018 would be the year we trade up. The talent pool just isn't impressive like it was, this feels too much like 2013. If there's a trade up this year I would hope it's in round 2 for an impact player that can we can plug in to the system immediately such as RB or linebacker.

This is Alex's last year!

Praise Jesus!