ChiefsPlanet - Royals *****Official 2025 Royals Season Repository Thread*****

ChiefsPlanet (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/index.php)

- Nzoner's Game Room (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/forumdisplay.php?f=1)

- -

*****Official 2025 Royals Season Repository Thread***** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=356543)

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 18026668)

Having your best reliever available for "fireman" situations and your second-best guy as the closer is a pretty similar approach to hitting your best hitter 2nd instead of 3rd or 4th.

Mathematically, it's advantageous.

Estevez's velocity is still down. Hopefully that bounces back. With the timing of his spring, it wouldn't be unusual for his velocity to be down.

Estevez was hitting 96-98 in the 9th today closing out the game against Cleveland.

Sam Long goes on the IL and the Royals win.

WEIRD!!!!

#beattheyankees.

#screwjASSchism.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="it" dir="ltr">Oppo bomb for Caglianone. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Royals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Royals</a> <a href="https://t.co/E5vyLXcxLT">pic.twitter.com/E5vyLXcxLT</a></p>— Jack Johnson (@JohnyJ_15) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnyJ_15/status/1911524970590576920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 13, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Ragans looking like a Cy Young award winner out there. He's so damn good. Best trade ever

Caglianone is putting on a show.

I’m not sure what more he needs to show at AA at this point.

I’d give him one more week. If it stays like this, move him up to Omaha and see how that goes.

for all the crap we put up and talk about related to Melendez and Renfroe, something that isn't getting much attention is the fact that Kyle Isbel has gone 7/19 over the past seven days :thumb:

Baseball America has the Royals taking a high school pitcher in its latest mock draft.

28. Royals — Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS, Wendell, N.C.

McKenzie has impressed throughout the spring with a fastball in the low 90s, a plus curveball with huge spin rates and big depth and an improved changeup with solid command. Some North Carolina scouts liken him to 2019 first-rounder Blake Walston, who the D-backs took with the 26th overall pick.

A HS pitcher won't excite many around these parts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fansy the Famous Bard (Post 18029235)

A HS pitcher won't excite many around these parts.

It's a little different when you're that late in the 1st. I still wouldn't go HS pitcher in that range, but it's less egregious than taking one in the top 10.

Salvy's numbers are atrocious, but could you just be unlucky so far? Kings of Kauffman did a write up of the 3 unluckiest Royals hitters. Number 1 was Salvy, 2 was India, 3 was Bobby.

https://kingsofkauffman.com/the-3-un...s-01jrpk7ntyce

The 3 unluckiest KC Royals batters through the season's first 15 games
These KC Royals bats are better than their numbers show - luck just isn't on their side.
By
Jacob Milham

The Kansas City Royals can’t catch a break on their first true road trip of the season. Between missed plays in the field and an overall underperforming lineup, the Royals are now below .500 once again and languishing in the AL Central race. Royals fans are right to search for answers, and a good place to start is in the batting department.

Thanks to the advent of Statcast, fans have access to more advanced metrics, processes, and probabilities than they once did. Instead of relying on the back of the baseball card numbers, fans can look at exit velocity, chase rate, or bat speed for hope or doubt regarding a batter. One stat that rolls several batted ball metrics together is Weighted On-base Average, otherwise known as wOBA. That metric still relies on outcomes rather than looking at what a player's performance should be based upon their performance. That is where the Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) comes into play.

Expected Weighted On-base Average, or xwOBA, is a Statcast stat that estimates a player's on-base performance based on the quality of their contact—things like exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed on weakly hit balls. Instead of being influenced by defense, luck, or ballpark quirks, xwOBA focuses purely on what the hitter can control. It assigns each batted ball a probability of being a single, double, triple, or home run based on how similar batted balls have performed since 2015.

xwOBA works just like wOBA in how it values walks, hits, and extra-base hits—but instead of using the actual outcomes, it uses expected outcomes. That makes it a better reflection of a player's true talent level—whether you're evaluating a hitter's bat or a pitcher's ability to limit quality contact. So if a player has a much higher xwOBA than their real-world wOBA, like Nick Loftin or Maikel Garcia in 2024, it’s a sign they may be hitting better than their box score suggests.

The KC Royals, as a whole, are unlucky to start the season according to xwOBA.
The Royals' scoring efforts the past week have felt absolutely anemic. While the average runs scored per game per team this year hovers around four runs per game, Kansas City has struggled to match or surpass that. A lack of run support has left many strong pitching starts out to dry, and are a big reason Kansas City is under .500 right now rather than leading the division.

Fans can find some minor solace in knowing baseball is one of those sports that finds a way to balance itself out across the 162-game season. The league right now, as a whole, have been underperforming the expected metrics. MLB's xwOBA, as of Apr. 13, stands at .326, while the wOBA is at .310, a -0.016 difference. Both Kansas City's .269 wOBA and .301 xwOBA rank near the bottom of the league, but the -0.032 difference between the two is the fourth-biggest negative disparity in MLB and second-largest in the AL.

Even if Kansas City were hitting their expected mark, the lineup would be better but still below league average. It doesn't help that the most unlucky hitters in Kansas City's lineup reside in the top third.
Salvador Perez: -0.117 xwOBA difference
It looked like Kansas City's captain defied Father Time in 2024, but the initial slash line resembles his dreadful 2023 performance more than last season. His .211/.262/.298 line and .254 wOBA would all be career-worst marks if the season ended today, marred with a significant decline in power at the plate.

If there is any silver lining in all this, the veteran catcher should be performing much better. His .371 xwOBA is his best mark since his historic 2021 season and tied for the second-highest in his career. That massive negative difference not only leads the Royals by a wide margin but is the third-largest in all of baseball. Only Chicago White Sox's Andrew Vaughn's -0.167 difference leads Salvy in the AL field.

Jonathan India: -0.050 xwOBA difference
The new Royals leadoff man had a hot start in Kansas City but has cooled off much like his peers in the dugout. India has reached safely in 21 of his 63 plate appearances so far, still giving Kansas City an on-base boost at the top of the lineup. However, he could have done much better at setting the table if he had met his expected stats. His .336 xwOBA still leaves much room for improvement, but is leaps and bounds better than his current .286 wOBA.

Bobby Witt Jr.: -0.048 xwOBA difference
While Kansas City has notably struggled at the plate, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has turned things around in recent games. Whether it be drawing multiple walks against the Guardians or his AL-leading six doubles on the young season, Witt is still living up to his lofty preseason expectations. The scary thing is his .423 xwOBA shows he could be doing even better than his 2024 performance. The shortstop's speed certainly helps his expected numbers, but a 4.3% jump in walk rate from 2024 to 2025 is really helping his ceiling this season."

Winners make their own luck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GloryDayz (Post 18029426)

Winners make their own luck.

That’s a bold statement around here. The Royals would’ve been 140-22 last year if it wasn’t for “bad luck” if you believed GDTs.

Seems like Jac Caglianone has went into a nosedive as well. He's 0-4, he's up to bat right now, but he's under a .700 OPS and has a .208 batting average. Strikeout number 2 for the night and is now at a .681 OPS and .204 BA.

****ing basically everyone there at Northwest Arkansas has fallen off the cliff. Jenson has a .520 OPS, Cross has a .653 OPS, and Nivens has a .681 OPS.

That team looked like a hotspot for bats and now they look like the rest of our shitty farm system.

Nick Loftin seems to be knocking the ball around in AAA. No real reason to keep him down there. Bring him up for a shot.

The future looks pretty god damn bleak at the moment, especially when the big league club looks completely ****ing lost. I'm sure things won't continue to look this bad.

Maybe it's our scouts who suck? Maybe it's ownership who won't spend the cash for a Yankees level lineup?

Oh well, at least we'll still have bark at the park... Dogs don't care about wins or losses.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GabyKeepsMeWarm (Post 18026543)

Got a few thoughts after two weeks of play... Overall, I'd give things a solid B. Going 7-6 against Cleveland, Milwaukee, Baltimore and Minnesota is nothing to be upset about to start the season. Most of the wins haven't been pretty, but it ain't a beauty contest.

Pitching has picked right up where it left off from last season. Starters more or less pitching to expectation, while Bubic has been dynamite since his return to the rotation after spending a year on the IL, and then throwing out of the pen last year upon his return. Speaking of the bullpen. No complains. Stratton will likely pitch his way out within the next month, and by then there should be several dudes ready to step in and immediately be an improvement. As long as we don't see any extended injuries, I think the pitching will likely be a consistent strength all year.

The Offense has also picked right up where they left off from last season, unfortunately, that is NOT something to be happy about. I'm actually a little surprised we're a game over .500. We've just barely scratched out enough runs to squeak by in several games already, along with some help from our foes subpar defense. Good news is that there is no way these guys are this bad. Aside from BWJ and Garcia, we're trotting out complete dogshit right now. And loud outs are still outs, as unlucky as they are. But that luck will likely turn around for us at some point, right?

If it was up to me, I'd have Waters playing at least 5 days a week while Canha and Blanco are out with Renfroe and MJ not hitting their weight. Even if he sucks, the defense should be a little tighter until he inevitably gets sent back down in a couple weeks. Renfroe and MJ will still get their AB's of course. Fact is, somebody has to step up out there, and if it doesn't happen by the 40 game mark, I'd expect a move could be on the horizon if we're still around .500(or hopefully a little better). But it won't be cheap. JJ will likely have to move someone from the Carter Jensen, Blake Mitchell(he'll be back playing this weekend in extended ST before getting his assignment, so that's good news after the hamate surgery), Ben Kudrne, or Noah Cameron crew, possibly a combo thereof, along with someone from the ML level, possibly Marsh, Lynch, or Zerpa would be part of a deal. Otherwise we ain't getting jack shit in return.

But anyway, I like how things are going so far for the most part. Got a winning team, and our offense has been ****ing dreadful. If we can get some offense clicking on a semi-consistent basis, I think this is gonna be a fun Summer. But this big road trip through Cleveland, NYY and Detroit won't be easy. If we come back to KC at .500 or better, I'll be thrilled.

I'm sorry but a B? What de hell.

They are 2nd to last in the MLB in OPS. Last is the White Sox and do they really even count?

D+, so far.

It would be one thing if Bobby wasn't hitting. He's the sure thing. Everyone else outside of maybe Garcia is SIGNIFICANTLY underperforming.

They very well may turn it around but after this snap shot of games it is on no way shape or form been a B.