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I would start a game thread, but I caught hell for it last season.
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Is this meant for the Phillies thread? |
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Rollins playing 2B would be interesting, and he's not as good as Utley, but he's less of a health risk. Weird that Philly is committed to keeping Utley. They must feel good about plans to re-sign him for next season or something. |
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For Dave so loved the team he gave his only begotten son. And whosoever believeth in him shall probably still perish but will have Chase Utley. |
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Cry like a baby much?
Ok, tell us who we're going to trade for Utley. Be specific. I'd love to hear it. |
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I knew you'd cry uncle and give up.
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Looks like we're on the verge of our 5th postponement of the season and third straight Friday PPD. ****in' eh.
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The discussion doesn't just begin and end with Utley, either. Jimmy Rollins is an interesting name as well (though his vesting option for 2015 is a concern). Nobody is untradeable. Wil Myers should have taught us all that. Also, TINSTAPP. Hoarding pitching prospects is not guaranteed to succeed. In fact, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the opposite. The Royals compatability as a trade partner with Philadelphia comes down to what type of rebuild the Phillies plan to do. If they want "close" talent, the Royals would have a tough time matching up without Ventura (though I have a hard time seeing any top 50 talents involved in a deadline deal for Utley). If the Phillies are willing to accept something that's farther away, a lot of talent comes into play (and I'm probably missing a few guys): Orlando Calixte Jorge Bonifacio Cheslor Cuthbert Miguel Almonte Angel Baez Sam Selman Kyle Smith Bryan Brickhouse Fred Ford Cam Gallagher It's too early to have any idea what Philly is looking at, but if they're a seller this year, they're probably looking at a 2-3 year rebuild. If you look at what the Phillies got in return for Hunter Pence (who was younger, controlled longer and much less of a health risk), you're not talking about prospects like Ventura or Zimmer. You're talking about Seth Rosin - 23-year-old who started his third professional season at A+ level - and Tommy Joseph - a young catcher with some intriguing power but contact issues. Oh, and Nate Schierholtz. |
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Tonights game postponed, make up is monday at 1:10
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**** THIS SHIT!!! |
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Teams generally don't put decent (let alone good) vets on the table for A or AA ball semi-prospects. Sam Selman or Brickhouse might excite you but these guys rarely return anyone decent. It's a catch 22 as it is: if Utley is healthy & hitting then he won't be cheap. If he's not, then you don't really want him anyway. |
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Then the trade becomes tough for Philly to justify. Do you jettison a fan favorite, guy who you brought up, played his whole career there, loves the city, face of the franchise - for Brian Brickhouse? Seems like it's not even worth it for Philly or their fans really. Besides they don't care about money anyway so that won't be a factor.
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Nobody is giving up much for him. If the Phillies are sellers and can't/won't extend Utley, then they will take a B-level prospect for him, or they'll get nothing at all. |
Looking at our stats, we have 3 great hitters, 1 decent, and 5 horrendous. Cain-Gordon-Butler have 130 ops+ numbers which is great, Alcides at 107+ but he brings speed and of course great defense. There isn't much balance in our lineup. I can't believe Sal has 1 walk this year in 93 PA. Seriously Sal - that's embarrassing. By comparison Frenchy has 3 walks in 96 PA. When you're walking at 1/3 the rate Frenchy is, that's a problem.
It pains me to say it but it might be time to start platooning Sal a bit more. His career splits are drastic and heavily tilted towards hitting LHP. (81 ops+ vs 153+) Kottaras is about league average vs RHP. So it might be worth it to start sitting Sal to rest him whenever a tough RH is on the mound. |
I completely disagree. Salvador, Hosmer and Moose playing must be a priority. They need as many ABs as they can get. They are on the verge of being 23/24. Getting them up to speed will directly impact our chances of winning after we must part ways with Gordon and/or Butler.
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Platoon salvy, who's an amazing defender and good with the bat?
Jesus, dude. You are wrong on almost everything. Entering CoMo status here. |
Platoon Salvy? ROFL
His defense alone makes up for whatever lack of offense there is. |
Is there a stat to most games postponed in a season? We have to be well on pace to break it.
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I had to re-read the benching Salvy a few times because I thought I read it wrong.
You can't be serious. :facepalm: |
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I read an article today on baseball prospectus that indicated that "(Jose) Molina had a heck of a week, saving the Rays nine net strikes in only 22 innings." Maybe that's because the umpire was giving Alex Cobb strikes that were damn near four inches off the zone. Catcher framing seems like a giant crock of shit to me. It has as much to do with shitty umpiring as it does with the catcher's performance. Somebody, please explain to me how this is not a crock.
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Selman or Brickhouse would be throw-ins for Philadelphia in an Utley deal. Neither would be the headliner. They would be lottery ticket pieces that help you get to the deal (See: Patrick Leonard in the Shields/Myers deal). Look at what Philadelphia got in return for a very similar player in terms of value just a year ago. The Pence deal can be used at least for a ballpark figure on what Utley would cost. Yeah, Utley is a better player, but he's also older and riskier because of his health issue (and controlled for one full season less). The catcher the Phillies got, Tommy Joseph, is the biggest piece. He's never sniffed a top 100/101 list, and he slots somewhere around 5 in the Phillies prospect rankings (which is not hard to do). He'd MAYBE be a top 15 guy in the Royals system. The pitcher, Seth Rosin, is also someone who never has sniffed a top 100/101/whatever. If the Phillies want a limited upside guy who is close, the Royals have plenty of those (Gio, Colon could be pieces of a deal). Heck, even Chris Dwyer - who has cut his career walk rate of 4.5 by 50 percent this year - would be a useful piece of a deal. The key piece or exciting piece of the deal would have to be a lower minors guys. Someone like Calixte or Cuthbert or Bonifacio. The Royals certainly have tradeable pieces, and more than enough to make a reasonable deal for Utley (whose value you're severely overrating). |
Regarding Utley, you gotta keep this in mind: Getz is about a 0.5 WAR player. He's been on a tear, but he'll regress. Utley is probably good for about 3.5 WAR.
The Phillies would probably not wave the white flag until July, so maybe he can be had for half a season, probably slightly less. (1/3 of a season at the trading deadline.) If your goal is to rent Utley near the trading deadline, then you are buying 1 win, maybe 2. Wins are obviously at a premium in a playoff chase, but that is what he would be worth to us. |
I think Utley would bring more to the Royals than just his raw WAR though. He is a veteran presence, and he would probably be used to insulate Butler in the lineup. (assuming our young lefties don't start tearing shit up between now and the asb.)
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He's on pace this year for a WAR around 5, so you're looking at about 2.5 WAR in a half season (if you get 75 games from him). I think his days as an 8 WAR guy are over, but am pretty confident a healthy Utley is still a 5-6 WAR player. I also think Utley positions you to win better if you make the postseason as well as adding some intangibles (and providing lineup protection for guys like Gordon and Butler). With Utley, Gordon can stay in the leadoff spot. More men on base when Butler hits makes it harder for guys to pitch around him, which we have seen a lot of this season. |
duncan, you are a baseball prospectus subscriber, right? Can you explain to me why catcher framing is all the rage there?
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I think some catchers are better at giving the ump a clear window to the ball, but framing pitches is one of those overrated factors, IMO. |
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Kansascityfan shoots ropes of DNA over the availability of parking. |
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Trading for Utley would remind me of the Braves trading for McGriff 20+ years ago during their first of many NL West championships.
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Upon reading your further explanation I see your points and they make sense. The Pence point is a fair one. I thought thy at was a dumb deal when they made it and their OF has been terrible without his bat. If they didn't plan to keep Victorino why trade Pence? Maybe for salary but again they are flush. I'd like to toss Getz as much as anyone although its a short term move that forces Gio into the lineup next year. Which may be good. |
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 37m
Why are teams legit scared of 15-10 KC? Danny Duffy, almost a year removed from Tommy John, is sitting 94-97. Could join rotation late June. |
Passan also said that Duffy looks so good they've asked him to back off a bit.
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I'm almost bummed that Duffy's coming back. He's such a beast on Twitter. LMAO
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You don't watch the games, do you? If you did, you would see why Salvy is an integral part of this team and putting him on the bench would be a HUGE mistake. |
It will be interesting to see what the Royals do if both Paulino and Duffy come on strong. I could see a scenario where they pitch Paulino this year and let him replace a faltering starter and send Duffy to AAA on a "rehab assignment" to preserve a year of his mlb service time.
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Wil Myers update: http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleader...ers=0&sort=3,d
Not exactly lighting up AAA. He's still a strikeout machine, with 31 in 94 ab. A 1/3 strikeout rate in AAA is not a good sign and it lends credence to the Royals' scouts who privately expressed concern he wouldnt be able to hit consistently in the Majors. More ominous is his insane BABIP of .403. So his numbers are probably even more inflated than they show which is .298-3-17. |
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Wow, another postponed game?
I guess they won't ever have a day off the back half of the season? |
Looking at the Phillies fire sale (lol), Cliff Lee would be tempting as hell if the price was right. His salary is crazy but damn a stud lefty to the rotation would be nice. Also he is from Arkansas, so KC wouldn't freak him out. But back to dream world.
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The New K downtown will have rolling roof and access to the thriving power and light.
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Who are our expendable trading chips lying the in minors right now? |
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If Duffy and Paulino come back strong, Santana could be an interesting card to deal depending on our record and the offers we receive. However, if we hold onto him and make him an offer in the offseason, we could receive a fair amount of compensation if he departs, correct? |
Isn't this the last year of Frenchy's contract?
Honestly, the more I think about it...the more I prefer Howie Kendrick as a trade piece. He's younger, under contract for 3 years, can hit with some pop, and is a plus defender. The Angels are so hard-up for pitching...of course partly because they gave us Ervin Santana for a AAAA pitcher who went under the knife. But I think we could put a good offer in for him. |
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Duncan listed the trade pieces. Our farm system is really good, just not at the highest level. Ventura probably has the highest value. If you don't think he's got the frame to be a dependable starter, you sell high with him. |
What is the likelihood the game tomorrow does not get played???
I am trying to plan my day around getting home for game time but would be super pissed if I didn't need to get home for a game that isn't being played. |
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If the Royals keep winning, the fans will come. |
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