Direckshun |
01-22-2025 10:20 AM |
This game feels like a coin flip to me. Both teams truly have the answers to each other, so it will just come down to turnovers and execution.
The Chiefs run defense has significantly weakened in the last month or two of starter play. Pennel is not nearly the force he was to start the season, so if the Bills stick to the run and Allen carries it 10+ times and Cook gets a bellcow share, it's going to be really hard to stop this team, because their passing game is basically the Chiefs' passing game from 2022, where Allen has a ton of B and B+ options at his disposal, and he's making excellent decisions. The Chiefs secondary is as well built to stop this passing offense as any secondary in the league, but even they're going to have problems with it, Kincaid in particular, which is a matchup nightmare against us.
If the Chiefs can get to Allen, all bets are off, however. But no team has gotten to Allen a lot this year, including us (even though we didn't have Omenihu).
The Bills have a good run defense, but the Chiefs are more invested in passing anyway. They run purely to keep the defense honest, and I think if they stick with Kareem this week, they're going to get their three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust game going.
But it's the passing offense. The Chiefs just put up 23 points on an excellent defense last week without really using their WRs. I gotta imagine they open up the playbook more this week. The Bills will come out with a couple weird adjustments to catch the Chiefs off balance for a couple drives -- which will be enough for Allen to build an early lead. After that, Mahomes is too smart for zone, and Andy Reid's playcalling is too clever for man, and they're going to start moving the ball for those 6- and 7-minute drives. But they have to kill it in the red zone this week. Going 2-for-6 in the red zone this week might doom you.
This might be a week for Humphries to get the snaps at LT. The Bills best passrush comes from the interior, and having them face off against Thuney-Humphrey-Smith should stymie them a lot. Oliver spanked Smith a ton last time these teams played, so if the Chiefs can't adjust to Oliver, all bets are off.
The game just feels like a 50/50 to me. Every time I start leaning one way, like the Bills are better, or no wait, Mahomes never loses to the Bills, the counterarguments eat me up. I don't know if either team has an edge, but I'm very, very glad it's in Arrowhead.
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