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-   -   Chiefs *****The Josh Simmons Thread***** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=357948)

IowaHawkeyeChief 04-25-2025 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 18042980)
I specifically noted that MEH wasn't an example.

FAU is mushy middle -- I'm not real sure who to believe there.

The two most direct analogues, though, were Speaks and Moore. In both cases we were looking to attack a specific position group in a specific range. We panicked and moved up when that position group dried up in that range so we took the last guy we had in Speaks.

And in Moore we saw a group of 3-4 guys we liked AT the position group and were willing to trade down to take whoever was left.

And that's not speculating, that's a matter of public record. Veach has said as such. Both directly and indirectly (with Moore he said it specifically and then re-stated it in a different way when discussing the Cook pick and how they didn't think they could get the WR where they took Cook so they took WR first even though they had Cook ranked higher).

They have absolutely demonstrated a willingness to do this in the first round or two and I just don't think it's worked out for them well at all when they have. McDuffie they traded up for because the TALENT and not the position. And Karlaftis was said to be a bit of a combination of both -- they badly wanted a DL there but saw enough of them on the board that they were reasonably confident one would fall.

I think there's a fair argument to make that you could fit Karlaftis into this 'approach' and call it a win. I don't think that's right, but it's makeable. That still puts them at least 2-1 down, though.

This argues maybe we should have taken more risk in these decisions. Skyy Moore was the safe pick over Pickens with his attitude, however we still got Cook. Skyy definitely disappointing but was considere the safe pick. Speaks had the talent, just not the will. We got Kahlen Sanders the next year, which is what they though Speaks would have been.

Rausch 04-25-2025 10:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 18043063)

I understand why they took the risk.
Everyone understands why they did it. I disagree with doing it in round 1.

Sacrificing less on a risky pick is what I would have preferred. If anything looking back I really would have preferred trading for Tunsil now so we had something closer to a guaranteed starter at LT instead of a small sample size back up. There'd be no rush for him to heal quickly.

DJ's left nut 04-25-2025 10:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FloridaMan88 (Post 18043042)
Trying to make blanket projections with a small sample size… not an accurate basis for comparison.
The issue with the sample size argument remains that the outcomes are SO bad that you could double the sample size and (for some reason) give the new sample a 50% return rate and STILL only get to a 25% net.

The N is big enough and the output poor enough that increasing the sample size isn't going to move the needle a ton.

The only way to defend the numbers are to distinguish them. Essentially dismiss them altogether because...reasons. You can't reasonably sample size your way out of this one.

You have to just say it's inapplicable because....whatever. He had a different procedure or we have some fancy new imaging that establishes his blood flow is unprecedented and it takes him out of that study altogether.

Sample size arguments don't work when the outcomes are THAT bad.

IowaHawkeyeChief 04-25-2025 10:05 AM
So we know this is going to get bumped in the future, good or bad. So if you are not on the Simmons Train, who would you have drafted at #32 so we can see if you are better and smarter than Veach... Come on, you can do it.

Rausch 04-25-2025 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief (Post 18043067)
This argues maybe we should have taken more risk in these decisions. Skyy Moore was the safe pick over Pickens with his attitude, however we still got Cook. Skyy definitely disappointing but was considere the safe pick. Speaks had the talent, just not the will. We got Kahlen Sanders the next year, which is what they though Speaks would have been.
I'm cool with gambling on talent. Upside.

Injury is what ends NFL careers. I don't agree with gambling on that. Big men with knee and back injuries doesn't end well but usually ends quickly.

tyecopeland 04-25-2025 10:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief (Post 18042822)
ROFL

You should start a thread about it!

(And you said the same thing a couple years ago and here you are again... You know you love it.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTown (Post 18042829)
LMAO
Are you really this butthurt over this? This all seems pretty childish, but you do you.
Discount mel kiper would never do anything but draft all pros and win super bowls if he were running the chiefs

DJ's left nut 04-25-2025 10:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief (Post 18043067)
This argues maybe we should have taken more risk in these decisions. Skyy Moore was the safe pick over Pickens with his attitude, however we still got Cook. Skyy definitely disappointing but was considere the safe pick. Speaks had the talent, just not the will. We got Kahlen Sanders the next year, which is what they though Speaks would have been.
Skyy was considered a safe pick by people who ignored quality of competition and route tree concerns. Pickens was, to me, a FAR safer pick because he ran exceptional routes and performed against real competition.

The point is that we seem to have some risk we care about and some we don't. Injury seems to be a risk we ought care a hell of a lot about.

Sure seems like we didn't. Is that a little bit of confidence born of the Smith pick? Maybe - but they sure cared about it then when they passed on him 5 times.

duncan_idaho 04-25-2025 10:10 AM
Side note:

Kudos to dante84 and thanks for having the draft pick thread on lock as usual. Appreciate you, sir.

Sorry for shitting in the thread so much.

irafreak 04-25-2025 10:14 AM
About the data on this injury... how far back does it go? I know it mentions pff grades so it must not go back too far. I ask because we know medical procedures are always improving. I'd also like to know the ages of these athletes when injured. Any of them just retire after cause they were late 30s? Numbers can be spun to say anything. More data needed. I don't have an opinion either way yet.

Rausch 04-25-2025 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 18043084)

Sorry for shitting in the thread so much.
Meh, we're all here to argue our points. Our opinions.

Just do it in good faith and don't get butthurt when people disagree. It's a small ask. It's reasonable.

RunKC 04-25-2025 10:14 AM
This kids talent is undeniable. It was never about that. Kinda reminds me a bit of when we took Chris Jones. Obviously very different reasons, but getting a talent like this later seemed to be worth that risk.

Let’s see if they’re right

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kirk Herbstreit - &quot;Ryan Day told me that if Josh Simmons came back next year he is a top 5 pick.&quot; <a href="https://t.co/tJQRgBS3DE">pic.twitter.com/tJQRgBS3DE</a></p>&mdash; Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) <a href="https://twitter.com/BradHensonPro/status/1915744028072554583?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

duncan_idaho 04-25-2025 10:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief (Post 18043073)
So we know this is going to get bumped in the future, good or bad. So if you are not on the Simmons Train, who would you have drafted at #32 so we can see if you are better and smarter than Veach... Come on, you can do it.
Luther Burden III (Preemptive note: IF Burden lands in the wrong spot, it won't work. He needs to land in a good offensive system, with a playcaller who knows how to utilize him, and who relates well to players. If he gets drafted by the Browns or another shit-stain franchise, he will probably not work out. If he gets drafted by a team with the type of structure the Chiefs have and it doesn't work, it likely would not have worked in KC, either).

Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina. Coming off an ACL so a redshirt in 2025 is in order. Tremendous upside.

From there you get into guys who were not clear 1st rounders, but Nic Scourton, DE, Texas A&M, JT Tuimolau, DE, Ohio State, T.J. Sanders, DT, South Carolina, and Jordan Burch, DE, Oregon are all guys I would have considered at 31/32. Possibly with a small trade back if I could find another one.

KC_Connection 04-25-2025 10:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 18043101)
Luther Burden III (Preemptive note: IF Burden lands in the wrong spot, it won't work. He needs to land in a good offensive system, with a playcaller who knows how to utilize him, and who relates well to players. If he gets drafted by the Browns or another shit-stain franchise, he will probably not work out. If he gets drafted by a team with the type of structure the Chiefs have and it doesn't work, it likely would not have worked in KC, either).

Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina. Coming off an ACL so a redshirt in 2025 is in order. Tremendous upside.

From there you get into guys who were not clear 1st rounders, but Nic Scourton, DE, Texas A&M, JT Tuimolau, DE, Ohio State, T.J. Sanders, DT, South Carolina, and Jordan Burch, DE, Oregon are all guys I would have considered at 31/32. Possibly with a small trade back if I could find another one.
Which of those players is solving the protection issues on the offensive line that the Chiefs have faced for years now and that cost them a SB last season?

notorious 04-25-2025 10:26 AM
We really kneed a Left Tackle, guys.

I hope he works out. Elite positional talent at the end of the 1st round + a 5th rounder. Not bad.

ForeverChiefs58 04-25-2025 10:26 AM
I put it in different thread, but Josh Simmons is first OT drafted by the Chiefs in the first round since drafting Eric Fisher first overall back in 2013. Crazy stat.


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