Mahomes is being brought up constantly on TV. He will never last to our pick the way the media is hyping him up. This morning alone 3 football shows were all hyping him up as a rising draft prospect. I want him tobbe the pick but he maybe out of reach even for a trade up.

GM's know what the media knows before the media knows it.

The hype doesn't bother me unless it's coming from NFL front offices. In which case the issue isn't that he's being hyped, it's that other teams value him as highly as I do.

Which sucks because I've had my heart set on the guy since around bowl season when he was seen as a 2nd rounder. I resisted, looked into him more and more and decided this dude was a definite fit. Now the ****er might end up going 12....goddammit.

And I'm still ok with the Chiefs trading up if they feel he's the one. Doesn't matter how far.

Thank god, I can rest easy now knowing this.


:)

Yeah that was hilarious. Sails two clean over Evans' fat head. That will come in handy when you don't trust your receivers are open and you can throw it into row 12....

If the Chiefs want a QB, it's going to have to be rd 1.

Trubisky, Webb, Watson, Mahomes, Kizer and it's looking like Peterman will all be gone by our 2nd rd pick.

If we pick someone in rd 1 it will probably be Webb or Kizer. There's no way in hell Mahomes will be anywhere close to our trade up range. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he's a top 10 pick.

Patty Football is going to find out soon that these are all picks in the NFL. He has some seriously bad habits that translate to turnover machine. It's almost like he learned how to play QB by cheesing on Madden.

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Here's a preview:

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But picking 27 is a result of the awesome winning the Chiefs accomplished last season.

****ing paper tigers. The qb is a big problem, but the whole roster clenched up when it needed to perform. Players have to own it.

There will be 10 quarterbacks drafted in the top 50.... so I hope KC trades up with 59 + 91 to go and get Trevor Knight... because he wouldn't be there at 59 either..

They are all.. just... that.. good. Believe it, folks... believe it.

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And **** taking a QB after rd 2. If they take Dobbs or another 2nd level QB in rd 2, it at least shows that they think highly enough to draft them that high and be a future starter.

Taking one in rd 3 would be complete bullshit. I'd rather get a defensive starting caliber player there than a backup QB at best.

Round has little to do with it.

I think Murray was thought of as at least a backup/eventual replacement for Smith. If not for the knee injury, Murray probably goes round 1 or 2. His college body of work merited that. Was disappointed to see him fall short of projections.

I'm pretty sure the brass have determined their price points for each of the prospects they like in this draft and won't desperately reach for anyone.

And if he didn't have that issue, he'd be the #1 Overall. The only reason we can even discuss the guy is because he has some negative traits.

People are excited about him, and he's being talked about as a 1st round pick for all the reasons you carefully chose not to mention.

Andy did this in 2011. Russell Wilson was picked before the projected him to.

Exactly.

Our quarterback in 4 years is going to be one of two things - a physically limited guy we got in the 3rd/4th round who will be little more than a continuation of Alex Smith (i.e. Nate Peterman) or a guy with a ton of tools who has warts that the staff will have to either fix or work around (Mahomes, Webb).

There's not really an in-between for teams drafting late. You're not getting Andrew Luck yet with Mahomes you're getting a guy with that kind of arm talent who simply needs to learn to harness it.

He might fail. It's still worth the risk to find out.

I don't think you are seeing the big picture here as well as Dorsey is I'm sure. Average time frame for a WR to be at his peak is 3 years. I'm sure they know this and I'm sure we'll have seen the last of Alex by then.

So...if Corey Davis were to fall to us...GRAB him!

3rd year of Marvin Harrison's career (as a full-time starter in all 3) he was such a difference maker that the Colts had the worst record in football.

It's a TERRIBLE comparison. Absolutely miserable.

Peyton Manning made Marvin Harrison, just as he made a whole slew of weapons like Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. The quarterback made the difference, not the WR.

If Corey Davis were to fall to us, what are the odds that his peak is appreciably better than Jeremy Maclin's? And what the hell good is Jeremy Maclin if he doesn't have a passer that will attack? Corey Davis will be a good WR, but he's not a Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones or even Odell Beckham kind of player.

He's not event he best WR in this class. Hell, he may not even be the 2nd best WR in this class.

Draft pundits answer me this:

Why is Kizer getting shit on for a lack of success in South Bend last season when he was clearly surrounded by less talent, and his head coach played mind games with him? You look at Mahomes who garnered hyper-Madden stats last season but the Red Raiders finish 5-7, and Mahomes had a chance to win a couple of those games late but could not. Please spare me the "bad defense" argument.

The same arguments used to tear down one prospect are being ignored to apply to another.

This must be a super tough qb class to evaluate and project. I've been on the fence with Kizer. He might have the highest ceiling of the bunch, but there is something about his character that turns me off. His measurables and ability to throw the ball are fantastic and he is intelligent as well. But I am at a loss as to what type of leader this guy will be.

On the other hand you have Mahomes who intrigues people with his arm talent and athleticism. He seems to be a bright enough kid, but when you watch game tape, for as many times as he excites with the plays he makes, you are also cringing at some of the decisions and 50-50 balls he puts up. His mechanics are not pretty and he evidently needs a ton of refinement. There seem to be little to no concerns about his ability to lead.

In the end I think you have two promising prospects that are unfortunately being treated very differently by media types.

Why? Because you don't want to hear it? When your defense allows 60+ points in 3 different games, yeah you're gonna lose. Not even Peyton Manning would be winning.

You're basically saying, "Sure, our offense/Qb put up 50+ points, but it's their fault we lost".

Pretty shitty argument you have there.

Fact is, Kizer has ONE season of starting experience and it was very average. That's why he's not talked about as much.

And while Mahomes has some cringe worthy throws, he also has a ton of "wow" moments. He has some traits are unique and and stands out. Kizer rarely ever "wows" you.

Not a shitty argument at all. The point is, what will happen when Mahomes has to face a competent defense? - because he never did in college. He had some opportunities to win games with the ball last. Success at times, not others. My point is a big knock on Kizer is the team record. Not sure why this does not apply to Mahomes. Yes his defense was shit, but they had oppotunities to win despite that defense.

Kizer was a starter for two seasons btw - even if he wasn't named as such last season, he carried the mail for a far less talented group compared to his 2015 team.

... and Andrew Luck is the high-water mark because he has accomplished... what exactly? oh, that's right. No SB wins... which is.. the ONLY actual accomplishment by CP standards.. so to this point.. Luck has been nothing but a massive failure.

or are we simply changing the rules as we go now?

He's using Luck as a prospect. Not what he is now.

It seriously baffles me why you cant see that team success and how good a QB is are not one and the same. It is possible for a shit team to have a good quarterback and a good team to have a shit quarterback.

That seemed fairly clear to me.

Guess not.

Well, it's a crap shoot. We don't really know how any of these QB's will respond to an NFL defense.

All we can do is take their positive traits and ask if they're NFL suitable, and take the negative traits and ask if they're coachable.

Personally, i don't think a knock on Kizer is his team record. I don't recall ever actually reading or hearing that either.

Seems your concern is about Mahomes' attention and Kizer's lack thereof.

Remember who Mahomes' agent is: Leigh Steinberg.

There's a reason you're seeing Mahomes' face plastered all over T.V.....the man has a promotion master, super agent.

I don't see any way that the Chiefs are actually after Mahomes. This has to be a smokescreen. If the Chiefs really do want Mahomes then they need to plug some leaks because they can't keep a secret worth a ****.

If every team in the league knows what you are going to try to do, then you are doing it wrong.

Let's say maybe the 1st round or two, how many picks do you think NFL front offices get wrong in their mocks? There can't be many.

I'm sure they all know, or have a really good idea, where each team is going to go with their first pick. On the outside we may be in the dark, but I highly, highly doubt any front offices are surprised all that often...

You are a confused person.

I agree that the Chiefs won't end up with Mahomes. I think they'll end up with a 3rd round+ prospect.

That is a great point about Steinberg.

The Kelly comments about Kizer have not helped him either and I'm baffled as to why he was so negative regarding Kizer's readiness. You can say a prospect could have used another year in college all you want, but to add that he was immature on and off the field is probably better discussed in private conversations with management types. Kelly likely hurt his own ability to recruit prospects by making comments like that public.

I have heard and read a few draft analysts use a lacklustre season at Notre Dame as a reason to knock Kizer - more specifically compared to his 2015 season. They see it as a regression, which it was, but to counter that there is not as much talk about a huge drop in talent surrounding him last season.

Marketability is a big thing. I get the impression sometimes that the league wants certain prospects to end up in certain cities to be their face. One attraction I have with regards to DeShaun Watson is that Papa John's has already signed him up! Doesn't that guarantee you a Super Bowl appearance somewhere down the line?

No, the teams do not share with the league office or with other teams

nobody knows what the patriots are going to do

Shitty teams are predictable


The better the teams keep it quiet.

When has John Dorsey's team had info slip?

These guys know each other. Every once in awhile you'll see someone on tv (former coach/GM/etc) talk about a phone call to another team laughing about how they know so and so is their pick cause he's a perfect fit with the coach.

The NFL is a small club, and they've all worked together. I guarantee if you got to sit in on the pre-draft meetings and see how teams think the draft will shake out, and then see it actually happen you'd be shocked.

When has John Dorsey's team had 1 backup who has never taken a snap, and a lame duck starter with a $20,000,000 cap hit the following season. Which also happens to be the last year of his contract?

CLEARLY the Chiefs need a QB. CLEARLY they'll be drafting one. The only thing we don't know is which one.

So then the Chiefs don't really want Mahomes?

I'd imagine they like Mahomes just fine. Probably or maybe alot.

Whether they'll actually take him is another thing.

The only reason people are talking about him is his arm. That fools people into saying "well it we fix his mechanics, he'll be as good as Aaron Rodgers" even though mechanics are very hard to fix. There's a reason Blake Bortles is in his 4th year and had to rehire his mechanics coach.
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You are ignoring 40 years of Chiefs football. The most likely choice for QB is a trade or release from San Fran or New England.

Eh, it's a little different mechanical fix though. Bortles has a shitty throwing motion that's not repeatable. He's always had accuracy issues and imo, he doesn't seem to want to fix it.

Throwing motion changes won't work or very rarely, they will. That shits muscle memory and that's not easy.

Footwork and the like seems more of a repetition kind of thing and frankly, I'm not sure Mahomes has ever been held to the standard of working on it. Those tech coaches seem to be a results over process kind of system.

Very few qbs are gonna come into the league not needing some mechanical tweets these days and the chiefs are gonna likely have to take a prospect who'll need some ironing out.

The Chiefs have had literally ALL of the top QB's in for visits. I can't recall a time that that has ever happened. They've shown an enormous amount of attention to the QB's from the Senior Bowl to Combine to visits.

It's the media dude. This happens every single year due to word of mouth.

Mort Andersen reported that the Chiefs were very interested in drafting Derek Carr in 2014. He was right. The Chiefs probably like Mahomes and a few other QB's this year.

It's no secret the Chiefs are wanting a QB. It's been in the media since the playoff loss.

I agree, and it was certainly my initial concern with him.

I hate the "we can fix his mechanics" line, as that rarely ever works out. These guys are who they are.

What makes Mahomes intriguing is that, at times, he really makes his non-traditional mechanics work for him.

All of a sudden it goes from "shit mechanics" to "multiple throwing angles".

The more and more i think about it, the more i believe that it's not his mechanics that are the most concerning, it's whether or not he can pick up an NFL offense and read defenses quickly and effeciently.

IF he can read a defense, then those "poor mechanics" will start to look like "unique throwing angles", as he'll be able to anticipate his recievers coming open, not panic, and use his natural talent to deliver a strike. When you watch his college vids, accuracy isn't really an issue for him when he's playing relaxed.

If he can't, he'll mis-read defenders, panic, and force passes thus resulting into turnovers. All of a sudden, those poor mechanics will look like....well...poor mechanics, as the ball will sail etc, like most rushed, erratic, errant passes do.

I hadn't thought about it this way, but great post. Funny how someone who does it well has a talent, and someone who doesn't has a challenge, even though they're doing the same thing.

Mahomes motion and footwork need work. His motion is bad and his footwork is atrocious. None of it is repeatable.

And I agree that all the prospects are going to need some work but I think the fact that Mahomes can throw over the mountains has fooled people into thinking he's a great prospect. Nevermind that he'll realistically never use more than 75% of that arm strength. It's like drafting a WR who runs a 4.2 but needs major work on his route running and other fundamental things like that. People are going to fool themselves that if they just correct those things they're going to have the best WR in the league.
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His throwing motion looms repeatable to me. He throws from some different arm angles but that doesn't look like an issue to me. His footwork is bad, but I'm not sure that that tough of a fix to be honest I'm not sure he's ever had to work on it.

I watched the videos of Mahomes and 1st thing I thought - this guy's a baseball player, not a QB. Then he told Gruden, he got this way from playing shortstop.

That's not good. It's ok once in a while but with his short height, he's gonna have a lot of tipped balls.

Just don't think you can 'unlearn' his habits.

:spock:

I can see that from you. 2400 yards, 19 td's 7 Int's, who does that sound like???

Yeah because his footwork doesn't make him inaccurate.

He should work on it but I'm not worried. As for his throwing motion welp. He throws bulls-eyes from a cannon and was a pitcher so if it ain't broke....

You have no idea what the Chiefs want. None.

Either you think that Chiefs are leaking insider information or it's a just an educated guess that they want a QB.

Which is it?

Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes said he's been building a rapport with Texans coach Bill O'Brien.

"I feel like a lot of coaches like me, but especially coach O’Brien," said Mahomes. "I think my personality and how real I am, those are things beyond what I can do on the field that he likes." Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle confirms that Mahomes' visit with the Texans went "extremely well." The Texans are fully expected to draft a quarterback but Mahomes may be gone by the time they pick at 25th overall. If O'Brien is as smitten as he seems, the Texans could trade up for a chance at Mahomes.

Smoke screen season.

All this media talk is just an educated guess, not really a leak IMO

Educated guessing:

John Dorsey has drafted for need with his 1st pick every year since he's been in KC. He has drafted for need the FOLLOWING year instead of the current one. It gives the draftee a year to learn from the player he is replacing.

Jones - Poe (Howard takes Poe's position, jones takes Howard's)
Peters - Sean Smith
Ford - Houston or Hali (contract stuff worked out though and we kept both)
Fisher - Albert

Alex Smith's contract doesn't end until 2019, but his salary cap number might be high enough that they could be looking to move on a year early. Alex Smith will gladly restructure though, I wouldn't count on it.

The other positions that have free agents next year are NT, CB and LB.

So if Dorsey sticks with his trend, our 1st pick will be taken from these positions: NT, CB, LB or maybe QB.

It's all a guess for every team. I doubt if any teams are leaking things other than what they want to say as a smoke screen.

The point is that just because the media is saying a player is connected to us doesn't mean it's a smoke screen just like it doesn't mean we will draft him.

The only thing we know is that we will most likely draft a QB. Ron Wolf taught Dorsey and Andy to take one every year and they have for the most part. Doesn't mean it will be Mahomes.

I want Mahomes but I think it will be Josh Dobbs.

All true, but now go in the order of 'most likely to have to take in the 1st round' to 'least likely' and aren't you able to rank order that a bit?

1) QB - Smith; if you're replacing him in '18, it's going to take a first rounder

2) LB - Johnson and Chaff - This is a thin ILB class, IMO. After the 2nd round, you're digging through Ramik Wilson kind of LBers unless you think you can snag someone like Kendall Beckwith or Alex Anzalone and get lucky with injuries.

3) NT - also not a great NT class but there are some guys here that will likely be able to be found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds; guys like Jaleel Johnson, Montravus Adams, Elijah Qualls, etc...; you can get your NT a little later. And if you needed to, Jones could play the nose so you can add a pile of solid DEs to this list to deepen it if you wanted.

4) CB - Just in INSANELY deep draft class and you're not looking to replace CB1 next year, rather you're looking at CB2 where you can scheme around some weaknesses.

Based on that, I think you're likely to see QB, ILB, DL and possibly WR in that order (Maclin is a very possible cap casualty next season).

lol, Mahomes will get BOB fired.

If I'm Mahomes no chance I want the Texans to draft me.

All this talk tells me we're drafting Dalvin cook or Joe mixon

Yep, Patriots poison tree

Mahomes' accuracy on intermediate routes, especially to the outside, was appreciably better, his willingness to put balls into tight windows is better, his release is much faster and his decision time to let it fly was much faster, his decision making on most passes was slightly better, and he visibly showed hat he is a willing and energetic leader of the team. Other than that, they have very similar things to work on.

Also Kizer can't hit on short throws and being inaccurate on short throws is like the #1 problem in this offense.

It's also my "okay f this guy" breaking point. Can you imagine having a QB missing a wide open Tyreke Hill in the flat? We'd lose our minds.

I still prefer Watson. I have been watching Saga45's video's over in the draft planet, and Watson is still the guy I hope we draft. Yes, I know his fastball was timed at 49, but have read where that can be increased with work... and without overhauling his game. He also gets rid of the ball in .35 of a second, which is the same as Aaron Rodgers.

Some say he is Alex Smith. When I watch him, there is nothing there that makes me think "this is like watching Alex Smith". I see poise and patience in the pocket. I see eyes still down field the whole time he has the ball. I see a guy that can make a mistake, and let it go. A guy good enough to overcome a turnover or two, and still make plays to win a game.

One week out... Give me Watson.

This. And while his velocity still is a concern for me, having the fastest release in the class kind of balances it out. He'd be great in this offense.

:thumb:

Agreed, reasonable conclusions.

FTR Albert Wilson is also a FA in 2018, Conley in 2019.


The entire thing hinges on "if you're replacing him in '18" though.

Our QB depth chart is very thin right now, which is another indicator.

Alex Smith
Tyler Bray
Joel Stave

That is an ugly QB depth chart. :Lin:

Don't forget the RB position, Ware is probably better as a #2.

It's going to happen.


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Watsons lack of a fastball really gives me pause. There haven't been many guys, iirc, that have been that low that have been successful.

I agree.

If he's Alex, he's the Alex we have wanted to see but never have. He's not going to be a pussy out there and if there's one guy from this crop that I want with the ball in his hands with 2 mins left in the game it's him.

The INT bullshit is inflated and overstated. 5 of his 17 INT's were from WR running the wrong route, WR falling down on the route, perfectly placed balls hitting off the hands of the WR or an alligator arm effort from a good enough. All that should have been caught.

Also the Malik Hooker INT was crazy. Watson placed that ball perfectly but Hooker is just a flat out boss.

I'd like to see him with better ball placement on slants and crosses. The velocity is one thing, but the placement is off, too. Maybe if he speeds it up that will change and he'll meet his receivers quicker and in better position in their routes, but for now there's a lot to be desired in that regard.

It's why the velocity is such an enormous red flag for me. In my limited knowledge of QB coaching, I would think that's something that's close to impossible to improve and teach, but if it CAN be improved, I think that will fix a lot of his problems.

The issue is do I want to bet on our coaches being able to smooth out the footwork and routine mechanics of somebody like Mahomes or do I want to bet on Watson developing more velocity on his throws? Which one is more likely?

Footwork is more fixable.

But I also don't think you need great velocity in the offense we run. Our offense is basically pitch and catch. When Alex plays, I don't feel like he puts a lot of velocity on his throws and I don't think it hampers him. What does hamper him is his willingness to take shots down the field. Watson looks like he'd be willing to take the shots down the field that Alex misses out on. What he would have to improve on is his ball placement so that our WRs and RBs and Kelce can get YAC.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/03/how-...e-logan-thomas

That lack of velocity makes those windows that much smaller.

It doesn't hamper Smith, but I'd imagine thats a reason why he isn't aggressive.

Like I said, I have been doing a lot of research. I don't know where I read this, so I can not link it, and I am paraphrasing. They were saying Manning, Bree's, and if I recall correctly Brady were not all that with velocity when they entered the NFL. But with coaching and the work in weight room, they all increased their velocity very quickly in their careers.

So while 49 mph is a concern, it isn't a deal breaker for me.

A reason maybe, but far from the only one. Probably like reason number 7 or 8 on a list of reasons.

The quick release can make up for it.

Lack of velocity on the ball just makes the qb have to be that much faster with his reads, release, etc.

From what I can find, there isn't a starter in the league that threw under 50.

I like Watson but that lack of velocity scares me off quite a bit.

55 seems to be about the minimum, only guy to have success since 08 throwing under that is Tyrod.

49 is really low.

Mahomes or Kizer.

Which is more likely, Mahomes learning to play smarter or Watson learning to throw with more velocity?


Just saw that ex-Baltimore scout guy say on t.v. that he talked to some team experts(anonymous) and did a small survey asking which QB would go first after Trubisky.

3 - Watson
2 - Mahomes
1 - some other guy, i forget

I guess Watson is moving up.

Mayock has Watson at #1, even over Trubisky.

Mahomes has smaller hands than the other guys IIRC.