Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTown
(Post 9758854)
Howie Kendrick
I dreamt we acquired him last night. Pls, God, can we make this happen?
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We discussed Kendrick a few pages back in this thread, and here are the things to consider.
Kendrick is hot now, but when he evens out, is typically a .285/.330/.430 hitter with around 10 HR's a year. Another thing to consider is that these numbers could possibly experience a notable decline when he arrives at Kauffman Stadium.
Kendrick's contract (4/35) is another point of concern for a team like the Royals. If we do trade for Kendrick, we are bound to that deal until 2015-2016, and this will likely prevent us from being able to pursue a power bat for the lineup. If he continues his current hot streak (.335/.375/.485) this contract could prove to be more than worth it and he will provide a much needed boost to the lineup. On the flip side, if he regresses to his output from last year (.287/.325/.400) this contract could be absolutely binding for a team like the Royals. Also, with Kauffman's effect on hitters, it's not out of the question to believe we would see this type of regression.
Finally, and perhaps most concerning, is Kendrick's price tag. With his current hot streak, contract, and his team's slump, the Angels are definitely going to want to sell high on their second baseman. This likely means no deal is made without (arguably) our top prospect in the minors, Yordano Ventura. Ventura, now in AAA, has been absolutely dominating at every level of the minors and is drawing absolutely glowing scouting reports (with the last one of ranking his stuff over Greinkes).
I know, a prospect is a prospect, but trading Ventura gives us no breathing room in the rotation for 2014 (We're already losing Santana, but will be in dire straits if Guthrie regresses or if we experience an injury). Also, it's also worth noting that we have very little long term solutions at SP extending past 2014, and if we want any hope of competing past that picture, Ventura may be worth holding onto.
The best case scenario is that we can trade a package of our prospects not named Ventura and Kendrick is able to perform around .285/.340/.460 with around 10-15 HR's until 2015. This would give us a much needed power boost in the immediate future, and keep our options open for the rotation even when Santana departs next year.
The worst case scenario is that we have to deal Ventura, and Kendrick regresses to his normal output, (.285/.330/.430 with around than 10 HRs a year). Not only would this provide a ho-hum boost to our line-up, but it would also give us zero options when it came to our 2014 rotation. If anyone regressed or was injured, our prospects for 2014 and beyond begin to look rather grim.
Because a trade for Kendrick will likely have to include Ventura, I feel that our best option is to attempt to trade for another 2B at the deadline (Utley comes to mind), and pour our energy into signing a power-bat in the offseason. Without Kendrick's contract obligations, we would also have the capability to sign another starter in the 2014 season (if we need to) or we could make an offer to extend Shields as. This flexibility could be absolutely pivotal for a small market team like the Royals.
TL;DR- Kendrick has a hefty price tag and what we would have to give up for his career output could potentially be jeopardizing to our rotation/lineup in 2014 and beyond. High Risk, Mid-High Reward.
