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They find some fit they love between a player and team, then rework the draft to find a way for it to happen. That alone blows the entire mock draft up. |
Nothing will ever top Collinsworth having us take Hendon Hooker in the first round.
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But don’t worry! He makes it better by taking … RB Dylan Sampson in the second! |
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This is how we ended up with Skyy Moore instead of George Pickens just sayin |
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I think it was we'll take anyone between Pickens, Moore and Alec Pierce and instead of staying put and taking Pickens we got an extra 5th and Skyy Moore all so we could take Darrian Kinnard. It was the biggest fail imaginable.
also as an aside we don't need a corner in the first...unless THIS GUY falls! Would run naked through the streets if this happened https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/...travis-hunter/ Quote:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There are some speedy options in the secondary this year <a href="https://t.co/fcFlYb5K1e">pic.twitter.com/fcFlYb5K1e</a></p>— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href="https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1909313475035513200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tyreek? <a href="https://t.co/IGX5ONjiB2">pic.twitter.com/IGX5ONjiB2</a></p>— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) <a href="https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1909319797248336270?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I don't know why anyone pays attention to Tyreek's tweets. He loves trolling.
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I wouldn't give up the 5th year option for any 1st rounder for a mere 5th round pick. Look at how much more complicated it would've made things with McDuffie and/or Karlaftis to not have that in our pocket to use if necessary. Or how beneficial it could've been in a Chris Jones negotiation. The option isn't any sort of given, no. But it's a card you have and that has value. That value is greater than a 5th rounder and if you're going to try to start getting 3rd or better, you're moving down a dozen spots or more. On the trade value charts there is no distinction between moving from 32 to 33 vs. moving from 33 to 34. In fact you gain MORE value moving from 33 to 34 than you do 32 to 33. There's literally zero value placed on the 5th year option in that equation. So from that perspective, your very premise is flawed. To move down enough to still be confident one of 'your guys' will be there means you aren't moving any lower than about 36 from 31. That nets you about the value of a 5th round pick. That's simply not worth the risk, either in terms of the player you could still get at 36 vs. 31 OR in terms of the potential value lost by moving out of the 1st round. It's just not a good idea. Everyone falls in love with the idea every season when in reality the answer should be to move up -- just as we did to get Worthy when the board was starting to thin out. The teams that move out of the round usually don't get much for their trouble. |
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Then if Conerly falls he can say "well I had the Chiefs taking an OL but one of them fell that I had going earlier, so clearly I was still correct..." They game the shit out of those boards all the time. They end up having no more/less validity than the CP mock where we try to game the board to goose our 'scores' when the draft is finished. Then there are the even more overtly full of shit ones like when Kiper had us taking Hendon Hooker in the 1st round and said "I know this won't happen but I wanted to have a conversation about Hooker..." In other words, some agent slipped him some insider information to get him to put Hookers name in the 1st round and hope it creates traction for him. It's ridiculous that this industry still holds the kind of sway they do. Or that they have the audacity to believe that they are out there influencing outcomes. No, X player isn't 'moving up the draft boards' -- you just didn't know about him a month ago. Congrats on catching up at the same rate us slapdicks on the internet are. It's a silly and antiquated exercise at this point. |
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Nate Taylor is NOTORIOUS for that shit. He'll decided beforehand what positions the Chiefs are going to take, run a simulated mock draft and then when the Chiefs are up he'll say "The Chiefs are looking OL and this is the guy at the top of the board..." and pick 'em. That's the extent of his analysis. And that's the Chiefs beat writer. The KCSN guys aren't much better because they'll say "Well Brugler has them taking X and he's available so we'll go that route..." The information you get on this board is orders of magnitude more useful than the shit those clowns toss out there. |
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The 5th year option has value. I couldn't say exactly how much value and I doubt anyone could quantify it in a meaningful way, but I know that picks have a pretty clear value in and of themselves. The question I answered when this part of the discussion started was what I would do if several players were available at #31 that I'd be more than happy to have and I stand by my answer. I'd field offers to trade down. I don't understand how anyone could disagree with that notion. It does not imply that I would take one of the offers, it merely says that I'd be looking to see if any were worth it. We might disagree on whether any particular offer was worth it, but entertaining offers to trade costs nothing and I think we'd be stupid not to entertain any offers. |
Teams have openly admitted that they'll jump online and use one of those draft charts to finalize a trade.
Teams use different charts, but the publicly available ones are seemingly very very close to what these guys are actually using. When you see teams include a 6th round pick for a 7th round pick in the back end of a swap, do you REALLY think that wasn't done using a chart and a calculator? Of course it was -- they're closing up the math using whatever trade chart it is they tend to favor. It's extremely rare that the return doesn't very closely match the predicted return on the 'charts'. And it seems like when it doesn't, we actually end up on the losing side of the math. |
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ETA - I looked up that Bears trade and I overstated things when I said it was wildly out of line with the chart. It was still a bad trade though given that the 49ers were extremely unlikely to take Trubisky with that pick. |
49ers convinced the Bears they had an offer on the table from another team wanting to jump them for Trubisky
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I love Dane but man. I just can’t get on board with this
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dane Brugler has the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> selecting OT Josh Simmons in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft in his latest mock with Mina Kimes. <a href="https://t.co/A9bjcW0Kt2">pic.twitter.com/A9bjcW0Kt2</a></p>— Chiefs Blitz (@ChiefsBlitz) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChiefsBlitz/status/1909246798717149265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
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That’s a “**** no” from me. |
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He will be healthy, most likely by camp. This isn't about recovery. The injury he suffered will heal. He's going to pass medicals but that's not the issue. His injury ends careers, full stop. Guys that suffer this injury generally aren't the same player after and no doctor in the world can tell you whether or not he will suffer the same fate. |
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Why do most mocks have us taking him if this injury in known for being a career killer? |
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Because. (Clap). National. (Clap). Analysts. (Clap). Don’t. (Clap). Really. (Clap). Know. (Clap). Anything. (Clap). I’d bet a BUNCH that 3/4 of the guy doing national mocks are just looking at it like it’s a blown ACL instead of this injury. They’re just doing shallow analysis. “Oh, the Chiefs OL was an issue in the SB. They’ll surely use their 1st on a LT, no matter who else is available or what the risks are with that player.” |
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I doubt anyone in the media has any inside knowledge of the Chiefs draft board. IT is pure guess at this point as to who will be available and who we will take. I think a lot of general media figures think we have to take a OL player, personally I think DL is a more obvious need. |
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Nolen vs Conerly would be my dilemma. Absolutely no character flags, Nolen is a top-10, if not top-5, player. I still think he's going top-15 but that's not the question. On one hand, if Conerly develops his anchor quickly, you probably have a true franchise LT for the next decade. If not, you might look like a fool passing on Nolen, who I fully expect to be a game-wrecker. That said, if Nolen's character flaws are real, you could look just as much the fool for drafting him if those surface as a pro. I also keep an eye on the future component. Next year's tackle class looks like it could be worse, and I don't have a solid feeling on whether or not Moore will work out. This year's DT class is deep into the 4th round and I'd be confident to get at least a really good player or two. We also need a NT more than a 3T right now. Armed with that, I'd have to go with Conerly. |
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Thing is, we can draft impact DL in a few spots in this draft. You aren’t getting near a Conerly type later in this draft (most likely). DL can also be addressed in volume. 2-3 good DL can equal or surpass the impact of one great guy. You can’t address OT in volume by having several that are okay. |
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Behind door 1: Josh Conerly and TJ Sanders Behind door 2: Derrick Harmon and Charlest Grant Give me door 1 all day, every day. |
Because of how expensive left tackles have become they have turned into qbs back when we didn’t have one.
Should just keep taking shots at them over and over or invest a first round |
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You can make a great case for both |
Another player that the league ****ed over on arm length. Reminder that unbiased NFL scouts do these arm lengths at pro days in front of everyone, not anybody from Ohio State.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Josh Simmons’ Pro Day Measurements:<br><br>Height - 6ft4<br>Weight - 312 lbs<br>Arm Length - 34 ⅛<br>Hand Size - 10 ⅜<br>Wing Span - 81 ¼</p>— Chiefs Blitz (@ChiefsBlitz) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChiefsBlitz/status/1909964620585894233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 9, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
I could easily be talked into Conerly as long as it only costs the one pick.
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Are we sure Conerly or Simmons are for sure things? They both have issues.
Could argue that taking Harmon at #31 and TJ in the 2nd makes more sense. Yes its doubling up on DTs but man it would help our DLine! |
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https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/after...-visit-packers Josh Simmons was on his way to a big-time final season as Ohio State’s left tackle until suffering a torn ACL. He did work out in front of scouts at OSU’s pro day. A pair of Ohio State stars who figure to be first-round draft picks, receiver Emeka Egbuka and offensive tackle Josh Simmons, were in Green Bay on Monday for predraft visits with the Packers. Receivers are always going to get the most fanfare, and that’s especially true in Green Bay, where a receiver has not been picked in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002. He was joined by Simmons, the left tackle who suffered a season-ending knee injury in October. The news, reported by ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter, comes despite confirmation from Matt LaFleur and Brian Gutekunst that last year’s first round pick, Jordan Morgan, will compete with Rasheed Walker to be the team’s starting left tackle. Based on Green Bay’s pending free agents following the 2025 season, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out there will be some turnover on the offensive line. Walker, right tackle Zach Tom and right guard Sean Rhyan will be playing on expiring contracts in 2025, and center Elgton Jenkins will carry a hefty cap number into 2026 that might require a third contract, which is something the Packers typically shy away from. If the Packers think Morgan’s long-term position is at guard, adding another offensive tackle makes sense. Simmons was the blindside protector for Ohio State’s prolific offense in 2024. He transferred from San Diego State to Ohio State after the 2022 season to help increase his draft stock and chase a national championship. Midway through the 2024 season, he looked on track to achieving both goals. The Buckeyes were undefeated when Simmons went down for the rest of the season with a torn patellar tendon. The injury sidelined him for the rest of the season and prevented him from going through predraft testing, though he did work on the side during the Buckeyes’ pro day a couple weeks ago. I'll probably be cut loose mid-April to give everybody a good pro day,” Simmons said at the Scouting Combine. From a talent perspective, some evaluators think Simmons could have been a top-10 prospect if healthy. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com ranked Simmons 37th in his most recent top 50. Jeremiah wrote in part: “Simmons is a gifted left tackle prospect. … He has excellent size, movement skills and balance. In the passing game, he has a smooth/fluid set. … In the run game, he plays under control, stays on his feet and maintains leverage/position. … What he put on tape this fall should generate plenty of optimism about his chances of becoming a quality starting left tackle in the NFL.” During a pre-Scouting Combine conference call, Jeremiah said a healthy Simmons “could start right away” for his new team. A quality starting left tackle is something most NFL teams would not pass up. Simmons certainly has the size to play on the outside at 6-foot-4 7/8 and 313 pounds. All he could do at the Scouting Combine was the bench press, in which he put up a robust 34 reps at 225 pounds. His arms measured 33 inches. Simmons was having the best season of his collegiate career before the injury. According to Pro Football Focus, Simmons allowed no sacks, no hits and just one hurry in 158 pass-protecting snaps in his six games. He allowed only one sack and 15 pressures during his career for the Buckeyes. He was penalized once in 2024; he was flagged a staggering 17 times as San Diego State’s right tackle in 2022. For the Packers, Walker started 32 consecutive games the last two seasons, but how high are they on him as a long-term player? Not so high that they won’t make him fight for his job this summer. LaFleur made it clear last year that, despite Walker’s emergence as the team’s starting left tackle, he had not fully arrived. There were more things he needed to improve on with the nuances of being a professional. “He's been doing a better job, for sure. And I think it all starts with his approach,” LaFleur said last fall. “I’ve noticed just how intentional he is in his preparation. Furthermore, the offensive line is something the Packers are always going to focus on, having drafted three blockers in three of the last four drafts. Gutekunst just watched the Philadelphia Eagles maul their way to a Super Bowl. One of the teams they mauled en route to winning the NFC, was Gutekunst’s Packers. Gutekunst appeared to take note in his season-ending press conference. “Those big guys are hard to find, so that's never something we're not going to address,” Gutekunst said. “We've been pretty consistent (with) that in our time here. We very much believe that, with the exception of quarterback, winning in the trenches is how we need to get it done.” |
Can you imagine this board if we took Fautana last year in the first and came back and took Simmons this year? The packers may do that?
We’ve been really lucky with our oline draft pics. Trey was a late round pick. Creed was a huge hit. Kingsley looks like a quality oline pick. I believe Wanya Morris is our long term RT. It might be time to invest in a 1st round LT. A few teams are really showing that the trenches is where you invest your draft capital. This statement makes sense…. “We very much believe that, with the exception of quarterback, winning in the trenches is how we need to get it done.” |
The closer we get to the draft the more the national pundits are starting to sound like parrots of each other.
Half are saying Simmons and the other half Conerly....with one pundit saying we could take Kaleb Johnson from Iowa in the 2nd round....that is the first time I have seen his name mentioned with the Chiefs. |
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I really think it won't be an OT at #31.
My reasoning: you drafted Kingsley knowing he was raw. You threw him out there and he got exposed. But the raw material is still there, and a Conerly is still going to be a year away. So what's the point? Moore gives you time. Gimme a DT or a DE at #31. That's my vote, which means Veach will do something entirely different. Lol |
Agree with this a lot depends on what they think of Kingsley and the fact he was considered a late first round draft prospect by a lot of people. Just turned 22 and also if their releasing Taylor after this year those two things could factor in on taking a tackle in the first round.
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I was watching tape of college dts and I’ve actually switched over to Derrick Harmon as my best dt. Even above mason graham. He’s huge and collapses the pocket causing tons of chaos / pressure. The most pressures of all of the dts
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If they're moving Kingsley to LG, the LT experiment is probably over, so drafting him last year, he's raw etc doesn't matter.
Sunk cost fallacy in play there. |
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The end of the first round is a spot you sit and take good players that fall for stupid reasons.
Don't shoe horn yourself into a position. Unless BPA is RB, then we riot. |
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It's SHOCKING to me how many people just have his injury wrong. I mean that is FOUNDATIONAL to an analysis of his value as a prospect and it seems like 2/3 of the folks that weigh in on him just...have it wrong. How can any of these guys claim to have a take on Josh Simmons without even understanding the severity of his injury? And people still value what "the experts are saying..." I have no idea why. |
I think Connolly and Simmons will be gone when we pick.
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Why is the consensus LT? It’s hard to see the Chiefs picking a 1st rd pick that won’t even play this year. I’d get it but damn
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LMAO The **** you mean why? Jaylon Moore is still an unknown, Morris and Suamataia haven't developed for shit and suck ass, and Taylor is mediocre at best and a likely cap casualty in 2026.
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This makes more sense. One will be taken on day 2 IMO and be a replacement for Jawaan at worst.
I keep thinking Ersery if he falls far enough <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"> UPDATE <br><br>The signing of Jaylon Moore won't prevent the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> from devoting more resources to improving their problematic tackle situation. Kansas City wants a player with experience at both left and right tackle.<br><br>Per, <a href="https://twitter.com/Jordan_Reid?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Jordan_Reid</a>. <a href="https://t.co/9jcBcakupn">pic.twitter.com/9jcBcakupn</a></p>— Chiefs Blitz (@ChiefsBlitz) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChiefsBlitz/status/1910333275442123261?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> |
I think Ersery is a slam dunk if he gets to the late 2nd.
I don't know how likely that is, but I think thats one of those legitimate 'sprint to the podium' sort of moments if he makes it that far. We'll absolutely take him there, IMO. |
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We need DL help. These one year signings are getting old. I'm sure Jones wants some help in the middle. Deepest DT draft in forever and we take another OL LT project? |
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Now, if they truly see a franchise LT in Conerly or Simmons, and truly trust what they're getting, I certainly won't complain, but I'm definitely not going that route unless there isn't an impact player left on my board at any position. |
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I know it is a great draft for DL, but our defense is pretty much ready to roll as is. Yes it can always need pieces to make it even more dynamic and depth is always a concern, but where this team needs help is on offense. This should all be about getting Mahomes right. I think it starts with OT. There a 4 in the 1st that move the needle IMO (Campbell, Membou, Simmons, and Conerly). These guys are likely better than what we have now.
If you can make a minor move to get one, you do it. If not, I am looking at more dynamic playmakers. We need more young explosive players at TE, WR, and RB. That would be the route I would go if the OTs are gone. Again plenty of depth at DL to get help for Jones deeper in the draft. |
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Sure thing, sport... |
I will say if they're willing to invest EVEN MORE at OT, how's about getting rid of the guy that hasn't developed shit at OT since Eric Fisher.
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Everyone hated the WR coach until we grabbed a couple good WR prospects in the early rounds and they developed nicely as rookies. Yes, we've finally started to invest draft capital into the OL. But acting like the array of 2nd and 3rd day picks we've invested into prospects there over the last 15 years is some bounty is a bit silly. We've used a late 2nd, 2 late 3rd and a 5th on the position in the last DECADE. That's it. 4 picks that average out to roughly the 99th overall pick. The median is around pick 94. So in a decade we've used 4 picks that are the rough equivalent of a late 3rd round pick each -- the hit rate on those is going to be damn low, especially at OT. you're looking at maybe a 25% success rate for picks in that area and 'success' for those picks means "occasional starter". Morris actually qualifies as a successful 96th overall pick. We're not getting less with more out of our OT investments in the draft. We're getting about what we should expect with less. |
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Lot of this board wanted Toub fired bc of Skyy Moore, who never returned punts until he was with the Chiefs.
Another example of CP overreaction. We should be kissing Dave Toub’s ass. Butker and Chenal alone were instrumental to playoff success, Toney’s return in the SB was huge, Skyy’s return in the Bengals AFCCG was huge. Hell just last year we beat the Broncos bc of Dave Toub. We were dead to rights and his coaching came through. Remigio was an undrafted player that had 40+ yd returns in back-to-back playoff games. The staff is still the best in the league |
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It was that when we weren't allocating 3-4 roster spots to "Toub's guys", the Special Teams units fell to shit for 2 years. It wasn't just dropped punts, it was silly execution errors, coverage lapses and unforced mistakes. Exactly that kind of things you pay the "Best STs coach in football" to keep from happening. And as it turned out, he sure started looking like Gunther Cunningham -- great when he was guys that are already good, not so much when he has to cover for them and/or MAKE them good. The ship righted for the most part last season, but he had a couple of pretty shitty years in there and it wasn't just because of Skyy Moore. |
If you think he doesn't suck, that's all fine and dandy, but the team clearly does.
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Do you just not watch football outside of Kansas City? Because he's EXACTLY what you get from a swing tackle on essentially every team in the league. |
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Agree 100%. The anti LT group seems to want an immediate contribution from late 1st round pick. That could happen but normally these players have to develop. The chiefs have not invested that much draft capital in the oline. And the results have been that Mahomes has gotten sacked more this last season than any season prior and the anti LT in the first round group says to avoid taking a LT because they will be a project. Well, how do get a talented offensive line picking at the back of the first? You gotta pick some linemen that are projects. The argument to not take a LT because they won’t produce in Year 1 is nonsensical to me. It puts us in a position to sign guys like Jaylon Moore and Jawaan Taylor as over priced free agents. We either have to trade up to around the top 10-15 to get an immediate contributor at LT or we develop a LT or we sign a free agent LT. Pick your poison.
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Dude wasn't even dressing. That's not replacement level, that's practice squad fodder level.
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Then he wasn't. And the rumor is still that he was fighting that bone bruise in his knee that prevented him from being able to move laterally as well as he needed to, so he was cheating and the tape got out. You seem to completely dismiss that possibility. I think there's some validity to it as he looked very similar to how he looked in 2023 during that stretch of solid play. I have a hard time believing that after showing 8-10 solid starting performances over his rookie year and then into his sophomore season, he suddenly just fell to complete shit. |
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