He meant that it is for Mahomes. :D

Can they restructure them now, or do they have to wait for the new league year? If they have to wait, that might be part of the hold up on what is going on with those two.

You will be pleasantly surprised my friend. You just need to be a bit patient.

They're under contract, they can be done at any time I would imagine.

Unless being patient results in them cutting Eric Berry AND Justin Houston, I don't see what waiting is going to do. They don't have any money.

If Mahomes drops from 50 to 35 TD's that will look like a mediocre year.

Plus you are assuming the defense is going to be so good we can hold teams off for an entire half or quarter- which has been a disaster for Andy when he has gone conservative.

And just because you have a good defense that does not mean you can start running the ball at will on teams and protecting leads. Once again, we have not been able to do this for years now.

I think predicting a 30% drop off in TD's by Mahomes is unrealistic.

35 TDs would have been 2nd in the league this year after Andrew Luck with 36. If you think Mahomes is going to throw 45-50 TDs every year, I got news for you.

Exactly, the media would be all over it. Why is Mahomes having such a bad year?

I am sure Mahomes would think it is mediocre since he has set his own level of success and only wants to get better.

You might want to research Andy Reid.

The few games we did play decent defense Andy was doing exactly that with Mahkmws as his QB.

They're not going to sign both Hill and Jones this offseason I doubt.

One maybe, not likely both.

They can make the money work if they want for whoever. It may end up biting them in the future, but if they do it and win a SB next year, I don't care.

If it's all about cap and nothing more, then shit-can all three of 'em.

That's what they should do. They won't though.

I don't know if they can with Berry. It's been discussed ad nauseum and im still not sure.

Houston is pretty much gone if they're gonna tag Ford.

I'm not opposed to trading Ford but it would have to be a nice haul.

A record that Mahomes destroyed.

When we began this dialogue at the end of the season, it was agreed by all that tagging and trading Ford, restructuring Houston, and putting the June 1st banhammer on Berry was the way to fly.

It appears we have done one of those things. What has changed that we could not finish the scenario?

This is what all the naysayers said last year when I predicted Mahomes would put up numbers similar to Marino's second year. Mahomes surpassed it.

You can predict a 30% drop off in production all you want but I will never doubt Mahomes or underestimate him again.

Your prediction looks even worse when you factor in (hypothetically) that the new defense is going to get off the field more, giving the Offense more chances to score. So it turns into a 40% less production year for Mahomes.

Not going to happen.

Did you have a stroke there? Blink twice if you need help.

Exactly, and what happened. Teams immediately shut down the run and Mahomes was throwing again to squeak out a win.

LMAO

You okay, Run?

I get not doubting Mahomes or underestimating him. You also can't overestimate things either. If the defense does their job, the pace of the game is going to slow. So while the offense might theoretically get more chances, they're also not getting into shootouts that necessitate throwing the ball downfield as much.

When I said 35 TDs, I was being extremely conservative. He might throw 40 or even a few more. Even if he "only" threw 35, again that would likely lead the league many years.

If the defense improves, he's not going to throw 50 again. That's the point.

Well, it's a pretty high risk, ballsy plan. You basically gut the only strength there was on defense. You just have to make sure you're replacing it; and I think you can, but there are a lot of moving parts and you have to get it right.

Although I would argue that planning on Dee Ford, Justin Houston, and Eric Berry to all be healthy and play up to their contracts is pretty foolish. AND Houston doesn't really have a position in base that is a fit for his salary due to the responsibilities of a SAM. Berry's probably played his last meaningful football. And Ford is an injury risk and a liability against the run.

So it happened once, which means it is going to happen every time now? You sound like my kids. :)

exactly. he won't throw 50 because he won't have to. And your team rushing statistics will go up by a lot; probably quite a few more rushing TD's too.

Unless we start blowing people out like Denver and NE did when their QBs had their best years.

Houston would work out better as a rush end than Ford would in a reduced front scheme. I dont see Houston playing sam realistcally. If Ford ever had to reduce down because of a shift or something, he doesnt have the weight or strength to hold gap integrity.

When other QB's have gone for 45 plus, they've blown people out.

The Chiefs could do that next year if the defense improves, but i'd think if he's somewhere around 35 40 that's an awesome eyar.

People don't quite realize how unreal this season of 5k and 50 tds were.

I expect Mahomes to be a perennial 35+TDs per season player but next season should be another 40+ TDs as all the main offensive players will still be in their prime.

After that, the likes of Schwartz, Fisher, Kelce (Watkins gone in two years) could be declining and that's when Mahomes might slow down some seasons.

I think your premise is flawed. Mahomes threw 6 TD's in a game twice- Steelers and Rams- only the Rams was a "shootout".

Mahomes threw 4 Td's in 5 games with only New England being a shootout.

So his production was not directly related to being in a shootout situation.

We also have a very tough schedule again- so even if the defense does improve, it will have to become dominant for us to be able to coast to wins all year.

back to defense-and I'm not sure what the plan is...but-
If you cut Houston...well, I think you have to. Right? I mean it doesn't make sense not to.

And you tag Ford to play him. You're keeping one of your premier pass rushers. You're transferring most of Houston's salary to Ford, essentially, with like $4 million left over.

You need a SAM, you need a veteran safety. You really should have an older veteran type DE for depth and rotational purposes. You need at least one CB.

You need to draft CB's, a S, and an Edge/DE. A corner may need to be a day one starter.

I think so too, but if Houston's really not going to restructure, then you just can't pay him $21 million. You just can't.

I like him better than Ford as I think he's a much more complete player, but I don't see how it happens.

What are the odds that Houston would restructure and could make the transition to a rushing DE ala Neil Smith?

If Houston wouldn't restructure, where could he go to make the money he would want and still be able to realistically compete for a ring?

Offense went into a shell in the second half bc Andy was playing not to lose.

I agree he is a way better fit than Ford. However, I do think he restructures, because it nets him the most money. Well, not restructuring, but extending, and converting salary to bonus.

Also, keep in mind that you aren't paying Houston $21M by keeping him. You're on the hook for $7M no matter what. The amount you are looking at saving vs spending is $14M. That's all you can save. Do you think there is another player on the free market you can get who will only cost $14M this year and has Houston's ability?

Probably not.

But devils advocate, with that money I could potentially get 2 or 3 players and make up that value that way.

You could also tag and trade Ford, let his injury history be someone else's problem, retain Houston, AND get a couple of extra draft picks.

Restructure Houston and go ahead and get those 2 or 3 FA's you wanted.

Getting rid of Ford could realistically net you 4-5 new faces next year. Getting rid of Houston just a couple.

Certainly you can. At least if you're talking cap hit. You can sign anyone and keep the first year cap low by making it up in a signing bonus. And since you specifically said, this year, that makes it doable. You could pay someone a $1 million base salary, $20 million signing bonus on a 4 year deal and only have a $6 million cap hit this year, but the player is getting $21 million.

Pretty much.

I'm guessing they think or see Ford as a better player and are ready to move on from Houston and if that's the case, well, I guess it is what it is.

It's just discouraging, especially after what just happened with Berry. Makes one wonder if they really know what they're doing on that side of the ball.

Indy could afford him

And quite frankly, they're going to have to replace Ford either this year or next. They can't give him a long-term contract after tagging him, that would be monumentally stupid.

If Ford is indispensable and can't be replaced now, nothing is going to change next year either. What confidence should we have that they can actually build a Super Bowl defense?

I think Ford IS currently a better player than Houston. I think Houston is more well rounded but at this point, he's probably not elite at any one thing.

If you tag Ford, you pretty much have to draft someone fairly early to replace him next year.

The thing is, you could get probably 2 guys for Houston. Can you replace him with that? It's probably 50/50.

If you could get 4 guys for Ford and not be able to replace him? They'r done, there's no hope. If they can't get one 10-sack guy in 4 spots, their clueless.

Check! Thanks. That could be a problem, potentially.

Getting a guy that's gonna get 13 sacks is not easy. That's elite level pass rush. Those dudes aren't easy to find.

How are you getting 4 for Ford and 2 for Houston? It's the same money wise letting either walk.

Well said. There's really not much "one in the hand"-scenario with Ford.

If they can't replace Ford's production with 4 guys?

You can't trade Houston. You absolutely can trade Ford.

And let's stop calling Ford a 13-sacks guy.

His career average is actually 6.1 sacks per season. One good season does not a career make.

Dumbest take ever.

Ford is worth a 1st

It's not time yet. The league year doesn't start for almost a month iirc

He said "if it's about the cap and NOTHING more".

In that case, he's right. If you're worried about the cap and literally nothing else, you cut (or let walk) all 3 of them.

Since there's more to Ford's case than just the money, you're also right - get the picks AND the money.

Pretty sure it starts March 11th.

I don't feel comfy letting Houston and Ford go into FA, if it's this year or next.

Feel like they would both end up in Indy with our luck.

Well let's be honest, ford was having a great year the season before before he got hurt.

He's worth more than a cut or just letting him walk. Especially when you hold the cards

Andy has always done that. Everyone just thought that Alex Smith was checking down or audibling to a different play. Reid is remarkably conservative for being such a passing guy.

Houston will be here if he wants to be here. If he decides a championship is more important then money then I guarantee you he will win a championship in KC

He's absolutely worth more. That's why you tag him and get the picks.

I agree. If he's on the roster opening day we made a mistake imo

That would be my opinion too. I just can't trust a guy with that kind of injury history.

That's true.

But we've also seen him get 13 and be on that track in seasons before.

Rushing the passer isn't an issue with him.

We had this conversation in regards to Randy Gregory when someone was calling him a 12 sack per season guy or something.

That's getting into damn elite territory. If a guy can consistently get 8-10, that's pretty ****ing good and hard to find.

Dee Ford can't consistently get any. That's the problem.

But they aren't looking to have him consistently do it. They're looking for him to do it again in a single year, where he's playing for a contract.

Contract years are damn undefeated.

Also if we're going off consistent seasons etc, he's averaged 13.5 or something games played per season in the NFL.

:D

Yeah, and that's a problem. They're looking for him to excel in back-to-back years, something he's literally NEVER done.

They're going to tie up 15+ million of the cap in a guy that has never demonstrated that he can do it.

He also had a whopping 5.5 sacks his first two season despite appearing in 20 games. Before he was injured 2 years ago, he had 2 sacks in 6 games.

His "good" games are FAR less numerous than his non-existent ones.

Why are people propping this guy up? If he wouldn't have had a good season this year, he would have been talked about around here like Eric Fisher and let's face it, Eric Fisher has been FAR more productive than Dee Ford.

It's pure freaking Derrick Thomas nostalgia. It's completely overridden any sense of reason.

Well you're completely ignoring the fact that it took him some time to get good so we all have our agendas I guess.

It didn't take him some time to get good. He was always good, even in college.

He's never been fully healthy and people are apparently just willing to ignore that fact.

As for agendas, the only agenda I have is wanting the Chiefs to win a Super Bowl. I don't think they can do that tying up $15+ million of the cap in guys that can't stay healthy. Call me crazy. I mean Eric Berry is the most popular guy on Chiefsplanet, amirite?

You are going nuts in multiple threads about Dee Ford. Take a break. He's tagged. What are you trying to accomplish

It's a discussion board? Several people are talking about Dee Ford in multiple threads. Take it up with them why don't you?

He's not tagged yet officially

Well, I think you're taking it a little far the other direction.

Sacks come in bunches for a lot of these guys. I'm always a little more interested in pressures and such anyway, disruption is disruption.

The reason people are high on him is that he was one of the most disruptive players in the league this last season. Not every player develops on a straight up curve like we'd hope, so it is what it is.

I wouldn't pay him a long term deal because of the age and the injuries.

But if I can get another season like last season for 15 mil, i'll roll the dice and hope he can repeat it.

That $15M could fill 2 holes in the secondary. The picks we could get for him could fill two more.

He literally has one healthy season in his entire career. I simply don't understand how that's worth the risk. Like I said previously, there are fantasy services that track and analyze injuries and injury probabilities. They rate Dee Ford as guy that is slightly more than 50% likely to miss 2-4 games in 2019. That's not risky, that's playing Russian roulette with the season.

Well for one, with all the money to be had out there in free agency, I don't know really how far his 15 mil will go. It could be a couple guys for sure, but you get into unknown players there.

Secondly, one thing I think you're overlooking a bit is just how "injured" he has been or would have to be to miss a game. Since he's going to be playing for a big deal again, I would imagine he'd be a little more likely to play thru some things where as he hasnt' in the past.

If we can get a 1st+ for Ford then we should keep Houston and trade Ford. Houston will be a quality DE in a 4-3 defense and i'm not sure Ford fits.

We can also experiment and see who works best on the opposite DE from Houston. I want them to move Chris Jones around ala Neil Smith. His athleticism and quickness should allow him to attack OTs without being a weakness against the run. Then we can put Williams at NT and Nnadi at the 3-tech for a stout interior run defense.

Houston,Williams,Nnadi,Jones or Houston,Nnadi,Jones,Speaks
Niemann , Hitchen , O'Daniel
Ward, Berry , Lucas , Fuller (Nickle - Nelson in, Fuller to slot)

When Jones is at DE the Defensive line should be able to rush the passer and stop the run. That protects our linebackers and let our safeties maintain their depth and help more effectively against the pass.

Niemann will probably need to be replaced at SSLB, although if Scott Fujita could do it, maybe Niemann can too.

He missed the combine as a potential first round pick because he wasn't able to run.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/...-franchise-tag

“I wouldn’t mind it,” Ford said. “We’re working toward removing the franchise tag in the future. A long-term deal is more suitable, especially [since] this is a 100-percent-guaranteed-injury industry. So we want to move toward that soon, but no one’s tripping about a franchise tag.”

Dee expects to be injured in the near future.

One Dee Ford is worth more than two average defensive backs.

If he isn't available due to injury he then becomes irrelevant