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-   -   George Karlaftis (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=343283)

DJ's left nut 04-07-2022 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16236508)
I don't think you're paying attention to how the Chiefs use them, though. In a conventional defense, you may well be right. Simple, straightforward skillset usage.

That's not what Spagnuolo does. Our Safeties have to be part linebacker, part traditional strong safety, part free safety, part slot corner. And they need to do any of those things while showing something else on any snap. It's a big part of the defense.

And again - we used Dan Sorensen in that role.

EFFECTIVELY, I will add, until last season.

It's a tweener position. Spags uses guys that aren't fast enough to be a dedicated FS, not big enough to be a LB, not agile enough to be a NCB. He finds an undervalued hybrid player (not unlike Deon Bush) and gets good results out of them.

You don't need a 1st round caliber talent there. And the Chiefs seem to agree as they haven't been nearly as aggressive with that position as many have predicted they would be since Spags got here.

To me we have a 'market inefficiency' at both S3 and at CB. We are able to get really good productivity out of those positions without expending substantial cap/draft capital on them. So why alter course there?

Especially when we HAVEN'T had nearly that kind of success on the DL. So we need to be hunting blue-chippers or at least safer bets there.

I think we get RAPIDLY diminishing marginal returns on our draft capital when it comes to S3. We can put a guy who fell through the cracks that we picked up in the 4th round or even as a UDFA there and get 80% of the productivity we'll get from a 1st rounder. Someone like Hill is just enormous overkill, IMO.

htismaqe 04-07-2022 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16236652)
And again - we used Dan Sorensen in that role.

EFFECTIVELY, I will add, until last season.

It's a tweener position. Spags uses guys that aren't fast enough to be a dedicated FS, not big enough to be a LB, not agile enough to be a NCB. He finds an undervalued hybrid player (not unlike Deon Bush) and gets good results out of them.

You don't need a 1st round caliber talent there. And the Chiefs seem to agree as they haven't been nearly as aggressive with that position as many have predicted they would be since Spags got here.

To me we have a 'market inefficiency' at both S3 and at CB. We are able to get really good productivity out of those positions without expending substantial cap/draft capital on them. So why alter course there?

Especially when we HAVEN'T had nearly that kind of success on the DL. So we need to be hunting blue-chippers or at least safer bets there.

I think we get RAPIDLY diminishing marginal returns on our draft capital when it comes to S3. We can put a guy who fell through the cracks that we picked up in the 4th round or even as a UDFA there and get 80% of the productivity we'll get from a 1st rounder. Someone like Hill is just enormous overkill, IMO.

It really depends on how the board shapes up, though. Hill may be overkill but it's still possible he's BPA when we pick.

I'm just not ruling it out. Of course, they'll probably trade up then and it's all moot anyway.

DJ's left nut 04-07-2022 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16236661)
It really depends on how the board shapes up, though. Hill may be overkill but it's still possible he's BPA when we pick.

I'm just not ruling it out. Of course, they'll probably trade up then and it's all moot anyway.

I just don't think 'BPA' is a vacuum analysis. I think raw talent is the most critical component, yes. But scheme fit and yes - need - is also a part of it.

And when I think we can get a guy on the 3rd day or cheap on the FA market to play the S3 role for us, I simply cannot see any scenario where, once that's taken into account, Hill is the 'BPA' for the purposes of this exercise.

Might he have the most raw talent of the available players? Maybe. There's a non-zero chance there. But you DO have to consider what it is your organization does well and what it is your organization needs when determining who the 'best' player for your organization is.

And I just can't see that math spitting out Dax Hill.

htismaqe 04-07-2022 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16236687)
I just don't think 'BPA' is a vacuum analysis. I think raw talent is the most critical component, yes. But scheme fit and yes - need - is also a part of it.

And when I think we can get a guy on the 3rd day or cheap on the FA market to play the S3 role for us, I simply cannot see any scenario where, once that's taken into account, Hill is the 'BPA' for the purposes of this exercise.

Might he have the most raw talent of the available players? Maybe. There's a non-zero chance there. But you DO have to consider what it is your organization does well and what it is your organization needs when determining who the 'best' player for your organization is.

And I just can't see that math spitting out Dax Hill.

What if there's a run on DE and WR before we pick and we don't trade up? Do you do whatever it takes to trade down at that point? Or do you take a TE or something else that would be similar in value to S at this point?

The Franchise 04-07-2022 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16236699)
What if there's a run on DE and WR before we pick and we don't trade up? Do you do whatever it takes to trade down at that point? Or do you take a TE or something else that would be similar in value to S at this point?

Is Devontae Wyatt there? If he is...I'd take him.

DJ's left nut 04-07-2022 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16236699)
What if there's a run on DE and WR before we pick and we don't trade up? Do you do whatever it takes to trade down at that point? Or do you take a TE or something else that would be similar in value to S at this point?

Build me a board and we'll talk...

I just don't see a scenario happening where EVERYONE is gone. Hell, if that happens we're looking at someone like Penning necessarily falling.

I'd take Penning over a S. We still don't have OBJ firmed up long-term and no real long-term answer at RT since we can't count on Niang. If Penning is there because of a run on WR and DE, then I would take him over Hill.

DJ's left nut 04-07-2022 09:01 AM

So I ran a draft where every time - I mean EVERY time - there was a close question, I went with a DE or WR. Then I started looking for guys who I just wanted like Penning who I would take.

And I got all the way to 27 before there was any chance at all that I'd consider Hill. And honestly to do that requires that Pickett and Ridder are still on the board. In that event there would be a trade-down to make pretty easily.

And it would still leave Perrion Winfrey and Cameron Thomas who I'd take over Hill. I'd probably take Travis Jones and maybe even Tariq Woolen over him. I left Linderbaum on the board and I don't think that's terribly likely either, nor do I think both of the 'blue chip' backers in Lloyd and Dean will fall (one or the other likely will).

If one of the QBs goes, one of the LBs go and Linderbaum goes, it's pretty smooth sailing. If all hell breaks loose, I still think there are a couple guys I prefer there and in that event there will be QB options that will facilitate a trade-up. Having B2B picks will actually help in that regard as it limits teams ability to trade directly behind us for lesser cost. When we're at 29 and making them an offer but they think they can do better at 31, for all they know we'll flip 30 to someone to dive ahead of them. We really have some good leverage in a trade-down scenario because of the flexibility afforded by B2B picks.

htismaqe 04-07-2022 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16236705)
I'd take Penning over a S. We still don't have OBJ firmed up long-term and no real long-term answer at RT since we can't count on Niang. If Penning is there because of a run on WR and DE, then I would take him over Hill.

Man I just can't stomach the thought of taking another OL. I want playmakers. I'm selfish.

DJ's left nut 04-07-2022 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe (Post 16236767)
Man I just can't stomach the thought of taking another OL. I want playmakers. I'm selfish.

I want my QB upright in a division that's loaded up on pass-rushers.

Is OT my preferred course? No. But if it's that or a 3rd safety/NCB? Gimme the OT every time.

Keep Mahomes upright and he'll fabricate playmakers for you. Just look at what he did w/ Pringle this year once he was getting the majority of the reps. Or Albert Wilson in a single damn game.

kccrow 04-07-2022 01:21 PM

After seeing Karlaftis as Brugler's 18th overall prospect, I'm starting to think that if the Chiefs want one of the top 5 edge rushers they have to go up fairly high. If I gotta crack the top 20, I'd go to 13 with Houston for Jermaine Johnson instead. They have a ton of picks so they'd probably be most interested in more capital next year which means it would take 29, 2023 1st, and probably 2023 4th. Veach isn't scared to be aggressive, but I'd be remiss if I didn't think Clark may put a "no-trade clause" on next year's 1st given KC is hosting the draft.

All that said, I'm more than confident that Veach is going to make a deal with New England to get ahead of Green Bay for Devonte Wyatt. Would he make 2 blockbusters in the 1st? I don't know about that.

I do like Cam Thomas and Sam Williams a bunch but I can't say I like either anywhere near as much as I like Johnson or Karlaftis. That said, multiple high picks given away in a single draft is probably too much.

My brain is hurt.

AdolfOliverBush 04-28-2022 10:22 AM

Are we supposed to be genuinely excited about the possibility of drafting this guy, or is it more of a "Meh, he's the best one we have a realistic shot at" situation? I'm not seeing why he's a sure-fire 1st rounder.

Chris Meck 04-28-2022 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16236705)
Build me a board and we'll talk...

I just don't see a scenario happening where EVERYONE is gone. Hell, if that happens we're looking at someone like Penning necessarily falling.

I'd take Penning over a S. We still don't have OBJ firmed up long-term and no real long-term answer at RT since we can't count on Niang. If Penning is there because of a run on WR and DE, then I would take him over Hill.

I would too.

Chris Meck 04-28-2022 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16236731)
So I ran a draft where every time - I mean EVERY time - there was a close question, I went with a DE or WR. Then I started looking for guys who I just wanted like Penning who I would take.

And I got all the way to 27 before there was any chance at all that I'd consider Hill. And honestly to do that requires that Pickett and Ridder are still on the board. In that event there would be a trade-down to make pretty easily.

And it would still leave Perrion Winfrey and Cameron Thomas who I'd take over Hill. I'd probably take Travis Jones and maybe even Tariq Woolen over him. I left Linderbaum on the board and I don't think that's terribly likely either, nor do I think both of the 'blue chip' backers in Lloyd and Dean will fall (one or the other likely will).

If one of the QBs goes, one of the LBs go and Linderbaum goes, it's pretty smooth sailing. If all hell breaks loose, I still think there are a couple guys I prefer there and in that event there will be QB options that will facilitate a trade-up. Having B2B picks will actually help in that regard as it limits teams ability to trade directly behind us for lesser cost. When we're at 29 and making them an offer but they think they can do better at 31, for all they know we'll flip 30 to someone to dive ahead of them. We really have some good leverage in a trade-down scenario because of the flexibility afforded by B2B picks.

Wayill...

I don't know about all of that. I like Hill, and his physical attributes combined with his football smarts could make him like a rich man's Honey Badger-and that would be a real nice piece for the back end in Spags' system.

I don't know that I'd pass up on that for guys that have a comp player that will go a round lower, such as Karlaftis (whom I like) and Cam Thomas (who's pretty much the same guy.)

It's all projection, of course, but in my glass-is-half-full sort of optimistic take, Hill could be a real star in Spagnuolo's system.

of course, so could what's his name from Baylor in the 4th round that ran a 4.26 or whatever it was. I forget right now.

Chris Meck 04-28-2022 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush (Post 16266319)
Are we supposed to be genuinely excited about the possibility of drafting this guy, or is it more of a "Meh, he's the best one we have a realistic shot at" situation? I'm not seeing why he's a sure-fire 1st rounder.

We're supposed to feel good about an upgrade at the position to what we have on the roster.

we're supposed to be excited to be improving our favorite team, The Kansas City Chiefs.

AdolfOliverBush 04-28-2022 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 16266421)
We're supposed to feel good about an upgrade at the position to what we have on the roster.

we're supposed to be excited to be improving our favorite team, The Kansas City Chiefs.

I agree, any improvement is good, but do you think Karlaftus is a big upgrade over a guy like Danna? I'm sincerely asking, as I've only seen highlights.

Chris Meck 04-28-2022 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush (Post 16266621)
I agree, any improvement is good, but do you think Karlaftus is a big upgrade over a guy like Danna? I'm sincerely asking, as I've only seen highlights.

Oh...Oh, yeah.

The Franchise 04-28-2022 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush (Post 16266621)
I agree, any improvement is good, but do you think Karlaftus is a big upgrade over a guy like Danna? I'm sincerely asking, as I've only seen highlights.

Over Danna? Jesus Christ yes.

DJ's left nut 04-28-2022 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush (Post 16266621)
I agree, any improvement is good, but do you think Karlaftus is a big upgrade over a guy like Danna? I'm sincerely asking, as I've only seen highlights.

Lord.

You're even dumber in the draft forum than you are in DC.

AdolfOliverBush 04-28-2022 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 16266747)
Lord.

You're even dumber in the draft forum than you are in DC.

2021
Games Played: 12
Tackles: 39
Tackles For a loss: 10.0
Sacks: 4.5
Forced Fumbles: 2
Passes Defensed: 4

Not exactly overwhelming stats. I hope he's a world beater, but numbers like that don't scream "huge upgrade", thus the question. Go **** yourself.

kccrow 04-28-2022 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush (Post 16266621)
I agree, any improvement is good, but do you think Karlaftus is a big upgrade over a guy like Danna? I'm sincerely asking, as I've only seen highlights.

You're going to find out. :)


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