Profar or Verdugo....ick

Feels like the Royals have regressed this offseason….

Profar finally had a nice year last year after underachieving forever. What kind of contract could be expect?

FanGraphs crowd source, which I have zero idea on accuracy, has him getting $45 for 3 years.

He's the best option left unless a trade is coming. I really want to improve the outfield.

Carter Jensen scouting report

Ya'll know I'm on board for a Profar add. Switch-hitter with pop and patience and even, above-average performance from both sides of the plate, and he's still a little better-than-average runner, too.

I'd love to add him and stick him at the 3 spot, or have him as another lead-off option.

India - 2B/LF
Witt - SS
Profar - LF/DH
Perez - C
Pasquantino - 1B
Renfroe/Melendez - RF
Massey - 2B/LF/DH
Garcia - 3B
Isbel - CF

Pretty nice lineup, really. Adding just ONE more bat makes a big difference, and you can afford to go defense-first if necessary at 3B and CF. While also making the lives of those players quite a bit easier, and maybe getting a touch more from their bats as a result...

That's what Baseball Trade Rumors had him going for, too.

16. Jurickson Profar: Three years, $45MM

Tim: Padres / Anthony: Royals / Darragh: Padres / Steve: Padres

Profar finally turned in the kind of season that most evaluators anticipated a decade ago. The sport’s #1 prospect when he reached the majors with the Rangers in 2012, Profar has had a frustratingly inconsistent career. Throwing woes pushed him from second base to left field. That put more pressure on his bat, which has bounced from decent to poor over the years.

Things hit a new low in 2023. Profar signed with the Rockies for $7.75MM. He had a sub-replacement showing and was released late in the season. He returned to the Padres for the final few games of the season and re-signed on a $1MM pact for 2024. San Diego gave Profar the starting left field job almost by default. Even Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who has acquired the switch-hitter multiple times in his career, wouldn’t have foreseen a season like this.

Profar hit .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers while playing in 158 games. He set career marks in longballs and in all three slash stats. Profar deservedly earned his first All-Star nod. He finished seventh in MLB (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage. The six players above him in OBP: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr.

When a player has this kind of an outlier season, it’s easy to assume it to be luck. That’s not the case here. Profar pushed his average exit velocity up nearly five miles per hour. He raised his hard contact rate (the percentage of batted balls hit 95+ MPH) by a staggering 13 percentage points. In 2023, Profar ranked between Willi Castro and Harrison Bader in hard contact. This year, he slotted between Carlos Correa and Jorge Soler. He got to that power without losing any of the plate discipline or bat-to-ball skills that have always been his best asset. He showed he could maintain that level for one season. Do teams believe he has finally found an All-Star level or view this year as punching above his weight?

The payroll-strapped Padres chose not to issue Profar a qualifying offer, so he’ll reach the market without the burden felt by players like Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.

Profar returns to free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal than he got last winter. He’ll be 32 in February. His camp could look for four years, but that essentially hasn’t been attainable for non-star hitters at that age. Mitch Haniger landed three years and $43.5MM as a corner bat at the same age. Profar’s camp will aim higher than that. The Padres would certainly love to have him back, but it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to make that work with other needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Royals, Reds, Blue Jays, Angels, Pirates, Phillies and Braves could also have interest.

hopefully they can refurbish Froe...He has had some good seasons not long ago...

Anyone know the rules about free agency and the draft? I can’t keep up on the rule changes anymore. Say we go out, get nuts and sign Santander or Jurickson followed by surprise signing of Flaherty. Do we lose draft picks in 2025? I’m just wondering if that’s been a big part of our reticence to go out and sign someone.

The only people that we can sign and lose a pick is Bregman, Alonso, Pivetta, and Santander. If we sign one of those, it depends on how much we sign them for, but it will be our third or fourth highest pick in the draft. If we signed two guys on that list it would be the third and fourth highest picks. Everyone else is just a normal signing with no punishment.

It's not my money, but it seems like 3/45 for Profar is a pretty good deal for us, even if he was to regress a little from what he did last year.

No thanks.

We give this history a multi yr deal and we deserve it when he flops:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...rofaju01.shtml

Way too erratic. He just can’t be trusted.

If someone had offered 3/45 for Profar... he'd already be signed.


I think he would be a nice bat considering the options, we've been linked to him before, so it wouldn't surprise me.

Sherman has obviously tightened the purse strings, which blows.

We wouldn't have signed Bobby Witt Jr if Shermdog didn't want a downtown or new stadium. Kinda got lucky that ownership did the right thing for the wrong reasons.

The reason why Profar would flop would be his slugging percentage dipping back below .400.

That's been the area of his game that has held him back his entire career, not his strong plate skills like duncan idaho alluded to.

That's the thing about free agency, if you get too rational, you're going to lose the player. You have to be willing to take on risk if you want to play.