| KC_Connection |
04-03-2022 10:57 PM |
For the second time in the Self era, KU will play a blue blood in the NCAA National Championship final. It didn't end well the first time in 2012 as KU ran into one of the best and most talented teams in NCAA history. Unfortunately for us, UNC is also one of the most best and most talented teams in the country that has finally played up to that talent level in the past month in one of the most impressive tournament runs we've ever seen. While some may see this team's seed and think KU caught some kind of break here, it couldn't be further from the truth.
While the Tar Heels always had offensive upside, UNC has transformed in March into one of the best offensive teams in the country (4th in adjusted offensive efficiency in the country during the tournament) due largely to their elite 3PT shooting and offensive rebounding. Caleb Love (37%), Brady Manek (40%), and RJ Davis (38%) are three of the best volume shooters in the country from distance and they have been firing away to great success all tournament. Caleb Love in particular effectively won both the UCLA and Duke games with his ridiculous shotmaking ability (often while contested). Because of this, they're one of the most difficult covers in the league. In addition, Armando Bacot is an absolute monster on the offensive boards (21st in the country) who routinely gets UNC extra possessions during the rare times that they actually miss. If necessary, they also have a trump card they could play in terms of going small and playing the elite shooting Brady Manek at the 5 (although this has been a lineup they seldom play throughout the season). Overall, when accounting for their excellent free throw shooting (32nd in the country) and their ability to limit their turnovers (52nd in the country), they are likely the most dangerous offensive team KU has played all season.
What has been even more incredible than their offensive transformation is what UNC has become on the defensive end over the past month. This is a team that ranked well outside the top 50 in defensive efficiency that has become the 14th ranked defense in the country since the start of the tournament. While some of this is just better effort and defensive cohesion, a lot can be pinned on just how dominant a rebounding team this is. Bacot is the 8th ranked defensive rebounder in the country, but Manek is also a great rebounder in his own right and the athletic Leaky Black, Caleb Love, and RJ Davis also do their part there as well. Teams have to score on their first shot against this team because they'll likely never get another chance. This will be a shift for the Jayhawks who have the 4th ranked offensive rebounder in the country (McCormack) and have grown accustomed to getting extra possessions as a result of his presence, possessions that won't be there due to Bacot and the others.
Ultimately, UNC is an extremely talented team that has been on an absolute heater over the past month with the best metrics of any team in the country since the start of March. This will almost certainly be the toughest challenge yet for this Jayhawks team and they will have to be at their absolute best to get the win here. Better be ready.
|
