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It's only been one game, but the Astros are dominating the American League so far.
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Until tonight, I thought the Royals were gonna be the feel-good story of the AL this year. Sorry guys.
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It's opening day so I'll go ahead and put my prediction out. 88-74 winning the 2nd wildcard
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Posted this in the gameday thread, but for those not subscribed to it:
Prediction: Royals win 86 games (86-76) Here are the things MOST critical to the Royals' success (I realize Rany just did this, but I have a different outlook in some areas). 1) Hosmer or Moustakas must take a "next step." Quite simply, the Royals can survive with one of these guys being league average IF the other becomes a legitimate star. If both hit, well, the offense goes from "good-enough" to scary. As Rany pointed out in his final preview piece, Eric Hosmer is in elite company when you look at his performane as a 21-year-old. This is a good sign. Hosmer's upside: .290/25/100/100/15 SB/.350 OBP/.500 SLG. If he does this and the Royals get expected contributions from Gordon, Butler, the Royals offense will be productive (because it will be getting great production from the 1, 3 and 4 spots - the three most critical in a batting order). Moustakas' upside: .270/35/100/100/.320 OBP/.500 SLG. We saw this in the first half last season. He couldn't sustain it (partly due to an injury). 2) How good is James Shields? The Royals need James Shields to be one of the 20 best starting pitchers in major league baseball. The good news is that he has easily been one of the top 20 over the past two seasons. The bad news is that he wasn't before then. Shields made a major approach change before the 2011 season (I have broken this down before, but short way to say it is that he started relying more heavily on his change and his curve, pitching backwards a lot of the time), so there's some reason to set his pre-2011 pitching to the side. If Shields is indeed the second-best pitcher in the division, the Royals will be in good shape. 3) Health. Most notably, Lorenzo Cain, Sal Perez and Mike Moustakas. The Royals have no real replacements in-system who can match what these three guys can do. An injury to Cain weakens the Royals' bat in CF and also makes it harder to sit Francoeur if/when he sucks. An injury to Perez takes away a 4-5 WAR player, which is tough to replace. And an injury to Mike Moustakas probably means starts from either Miguel Tejada or Elliott Johnson, neither of which is ideal. 4) The rest of the rotation. Santana, Guthrie and Davis are a key cog in this machine. We can be pretty confident those guys are going to eat about 600 innings. 2 of the 3 must eat them at at least a solid No. 3 starter level to really make this whole thing work. The Royals blog community doesn't see it. I can. I don't expect a full season of Jeremy Guthrie at 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but I can see a full season of 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, which is just fine as a No. 3. This is based on Guthrie's past performances, especially when he was an Oriole pitching away from Camden Yard. When he's in a park that is not overly HR friendly, he has been a pretty successful guy. On Santana, the guy is so inconsistent it's hard to say anything with certainty. But I look at his second-half performance, his unlucky HR/Flyball rate, and his contract year status... and think there's a good chance we see at least "good" Ervin this year. If "at-his-best" Ervin shows up, you're talking about a true No. 2 starter, not a No. 3. And finally, on Davis... the guy has shown he can pitch at least at a No. 5 starter level. If he has improved at all with age and with the lessons he learned in the bullpen a season ago, that jumps up. |
I truly love the personnel game part of baseball. This is the first time in awhile were I feel that the Royals have the pieces to do something... unfortunately, you see a lot of the same stupidity littered in there as well (Hock, Chen, Frenchy, Getz, Tejada)...
Wasted money and roster spots... Comprising of 20% the roster. GMDM has the opportunity of his career right now, and he still can't get out of his own way. |
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I won't gripe with Chen (had a feeling at the time that second year might be a burden, but in the end you're talking about very little cash). I would be a hypocrite to criticize the Francoeur deal. At the time, I wasn't crazy about it but I understood it. They offered Cabrera the same deal, and he turned it down. Wil MYers was in the midst of a .250 campaign with no power and looked at least 2-3 years away. I didn't expect him to repeat 2011, but I also didn't expect him to regress so far so quickly (he was worse last year than he ever was before). Considering the way Gio has played, I actually am OK with the small deal offered to Getz. He isn't going to help you, but he shouldn't kill you. Tejada is a good example of Moore clinging to the old ways/thoughts in baseball. He's a veteran who has been there and is being given a minor role (25th man on the bench) because of his "leadership" ability. He likely plays very little (god I hope that's it). |
It would be nice for Detriot and other teams not to preform up to expectations.
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BTW, i havent seen anyone mention the Indians much? Some things ive read say they are better than the Royals this year. True or not? |
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Their rotation is pretty bad, though. Masterson is a slightly better version of Hochevar. Jiminez is a shell of his old self and has been bad for 2.5 years (not bad for him, just flat-out BAD). Brett Myers is possibly a solid 3. McCallister is bad, and Scott Kazmir is a nice story but an extreme longshot. Bullpen looks to be solid/good. But a step down from KC's. |
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The Indians could beat us, but on paper they shouldn't. |
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1) They have been good more recently 2) They have more names as a result (Jiminez is still looked at as an enigmatic guy who could FIND IT by many, rather than as a guy who has lost it and isn't getting it back, for example) |
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Pomeranz and Alex White have both been Hochevar-esque for the Rockies, and the other guys are non-factors. |
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I was watching MLB network. They were saying the Yanks need to deal off Cano because he's 30 years old, and Boras wants a 10 year $200 million contract. The pinheads on MLB network go "Well, they should send him to the Dodgers or Angels, and then buy Bryce Harper in four years when he comes on the market for $200 million."
Royals spend $77 mill, and that's our high water mark. Sigh.... The economics of baseball just flat out sucks. |
God **** the Yankees
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Whats GT stand for?
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I didnt mess the game thread up. Your fellow Royals fans shit on me for being a White Sox fan. I didnt talk shit until they started saying shit. Thought id follow along that thread since im a Sox fan.
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Does anybody have video of Jeremy Guthrie doing his Rex Hudler impersonations during spring training? Can't find anything on google.
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Wil Myers not in the starting lineup today in TB.
:hmmm: |
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ROFL |
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but...but....I thought we we're gonna roll Myers into KC after the all-star break 2012 and he was gonna be King George II?
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Rany lays out and then defends an 86-76 prediction for this season.
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lipstick on a pig
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So....just gonna throw this out there...
WIth the high expectations, if the Royals have another bad April start, will Yost get canned? |
I think Yost is in trouble if they come back on the homestand 1-5 or something like that. Lots of dollars to be lost if there isn't some hype.
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All anger and frustration should be directed at the GM. Out of all major sports, the Manager/head coach position for MLB in the AL is the least-relevant. You could put a genious on a bad team or a fool on a great team and not see much difference. |
Yost is a boob. Just ask the entire city of Milwaukee.
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Ben Zobriest just parked one against the Orials
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Yes, Yost will get canned if it's a slow start...and by slow, I mean falling into the danger zone (7-10 games back).
GMDM went all in. Well, he didn't trade for Stanton...but pretty much is all in. |
Tampa Bay just grabbed the lead, but David Price is at 100 pitches through 5.
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David Price is out Mcgee is in for the #Rays.
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Chris Davis parks one and baltimore breaks it open.
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Jamie Wright the formal royal is on for the #Rays
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This board has at least a dozen true royals fans!
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I wasn't saying I agree with it. I am saying and I am far from the ledge. I am saying that I think the Royals front office would really be leaning towards a change if there is no buzz at the staduim. The All-Star game has come and gone..it is go time. |
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Just gotta get thru April/May without laying an egg. Then the kids come around. |
I wish Yost would get fired up more often. He may not have the demeanor for it, I don't know. But seems to me when you got a young team, if you go to war for your players, they'll go to war for you. I think that's a missing piece to this team with Ned at the helm.
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waka waka waka |
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<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ieP-TLgqKXA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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LOOK AT THAT HOMERUN BY MICHAEL TUCKER. YOU WANT TO MESS WITH HIM? HE'S CRAZY!!!
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I have a cousin named Michael Tucker. Hes no baseball player though lol
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<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Wlc7VWYwFwc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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YEAH HE ATE YOUR SHIT TWICE? WHAT WHAT?
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Yeah, "Tuck" would have taken one off the ****ing ribs after that. And the catcher would have had zero balls had he also not let him know exactly why, as he's holding his bruised shit.
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This opening day monday, no game tuesday bull shit is such a tease.
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I had a dream last night that the Royals go 1-2 vs. Chi Sox and get swept by the Philadelphia... to start the season 1-5 for opening day at the K.
OUR TIME! |
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