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2014 Royals Repository (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=279729)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 10591245)

Let's look at the data. We are 12-12 and have outscored our opponents 91-87. So our record is what it should be. We are 13/15 in runs and 2/15 in ERA. So we score 3.81 runs per game. League average: 4.43.

So we are only 86% of the league average. Suppose we were at that level instead. That would be .62 runs per which is 15 runs more. That puts us at 106 runs instead of 91. Running a league-average run total through the expected win/loss formula (Pythagorean) results in an expected final record of 91-71.

http://replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/Calculators.html

As our offense gets closer to average I'd expect pitching to dip a little as well. Hopefully offensive production improves more than pitching declines.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unsmooth-Moment (Post 10591251)

As our offense gets closer to average I'd expect pitching to dip a little as well. Hopefully offensive production improves more than pitching declines.

Well, maybe but we had about the same spread (11/15 scoring 1/15 ERA) last year so it's possible it stays like this. We ended up +47 in run differential which should've been 87-75 (we finished close at 86-76).

Our current pace suggests we'll end up +27. Or 84-78.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth (Post 10591063)

Butler aside. What is troublesome is its indicative of a club philosophy on how they are approaching their plate appearances.

Butler IS the problem. In 2012 he created 23.9 runs offensively but that fell to 7.2 last year and is already a dreadful -8.2 this year and -0.8 WAR. If he'd have put up the same 2012 numbers that's 15 or so extra runs last year that's another win or two. Right now he's a massive albatross. As bad as Gordon & Hos are they at least bring gold glove defense which keeps our runs allowed down.

If we're on pace to score 20 fewer runs, we can get the bulk of that back just by getting Old Billy to return. It must happen or the season is a lost cause.

Bump for a cold and miserable game day.

McGowan has been getting knocked around so this should be a decent offensive day for us. It would be nice to knock him out early and wear out the bullpen to start the series.

Actually, we don't have an offense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu (Post 10592979)

Start the thread captain.

Hopefully Vargas continues to pitch well. The elements are definitely in his favor tonight.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog (Post 10593155)

Start the thread captain.

I don't keep my fans waiting. :thumb:

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPATCH (Post 10592987)

Actually, we don't have an offense.

Why Challenge The Royals, When They’ll Just Help You Out?
by Mike Petriello - April 28, 2014

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-co...8713053169.jpg
That’s a visual representation of the current O-Contact% numbers, which shows you how often a team makes contact on a pitch outside the zone. Needless to say, the Royals are the only team over 70%, all the way up at 74.5%. This isn’t exactly a new thing, either. Since 2010, 10 teams have had an O-Contact% north of 70%. The 2014 Royals sit atop that list too, but they’re also joined by the 2010 Royals… and the 2011 Royals… and the 2012 Royals… and the 2013 Royals. Whether it’s organizational mandate or the players they’ve collected — likely a bit of both — these Royals love to swing outside the zone, and they’re good at making contact with those pitches. They’re so good at it, in fact, that no team since 2002, when this data goes back to, tops them. (The only one that comes close: the 2011 Royals. Of course.)

Usually making contact is good, but suddenly, you understand why pitchers don’t necessarily feel the need to throw strikes to the Royals. Why give them something worth hitting, when they’ll go out of their way to hit balls out of the zone? It’s not that the Royals swing at pitches outside the zone at a fantastically high rate — 30.4 percent, seventh in the bigs and above the 28.8 percent league average — but they do make contact, overall, at a much above-average rate........

So what the Royals have managed to come up with is a team that rarely swings and misses, also likes to swing at pitches outside the zone, and, understandably, makes more contact outside the zone.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-c...-help-you-out/

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 10593188)

Why Challenge The Royals, When They’ll Just Help You Out?
by Mike Petriello - April 28, 2014

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-co...8713053169.jpg
That’s a visual representation of the current O-Contact% numbers, which shows you how often a team makes contact on a pitch outside the zone. Needless to say, the Royals are the only team over 70%, all the way up at 74.5%. This isn’t exactly a new thing, either. Since 2010, 10 teams have had an O-Contact% north of 70%. The 2014 Royals sit atop that list too, but they’re also joined by the 2010 Royals… and the 2011 Royals… and the 2012 Royals… and the 2013 Royals. Whether it’s organizational mandate or the players they’ve collected — likely a bit of both — these Royals love to swing outside the zone, and they’re good at making contact with those pitches. They’re so good at it, in fact, that no team since 2002, when this data goes back to, tops them. (The only one that comes close: the 2011 Royals. Of course.)

Usually making contact is good, but suddenly, you understand why pitchers don’t necessarily feel the need to throw strikes to the Royals. Why give them something worth hitting, when they’ll go out of their way to hit balls out of the zone? It’s not that the Royals swing at pitches outside the zone at a fantastically high rate — 30.4 percent, seventh in the bigs and above the 28.8 percent league average — but they do make contact, overall, at a much above-average rate........

So what the Royals have managed to come up with is a team that rarely swings and misses, also likes to swing at pitches outside the zone, and, understandably, makes more contact outside the zone.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-c...-help-you-out/

It really is confounding how effing terrible the Royals organization has been at drawing walks and having a good plate approach for the past 20 years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 10593195)

It really is confounding how effing terrible the Royals organization has been at drawing walks and having a good plate approach for the past 20 years.

It truly is. It's not just a Dayton thing, it's an everybody thing. I truly believe had Gordon & Hosmer (possibly even Moose) come up through a different organization, they'd be 25 HR guys. This year.

It's like we are bringing these guys up through the system and giving them the tools to have the highest amount of success possible at AAA.

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 10593195)

It really is confounding how effing terrible the Royals organization has been at drawing walks and having a good plate approach for the past 20 years.

I honestly think the organizational philosophy is flawed. Rather than seeing a lot of pitches and sitting on the mistake, the Royal's approach is swing at a pitch you can make contact with and hope something good happens.

Also, the O-Contact% must be affected by the number of times you get into a bad count and have to foul balls off to stay alive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 10591245)

God. Damn. I'm going to cry after seeing that.