Realistically, whats everyonens thoughts on the timeline of getting manned missions to Mars?

2030 earliest.

So likely in our lifetimes?

Well, depends on how old you are. :)

But yeah, I think we get there in the 2030s. In theory SpaceX wants to get there sooner than that, but NASA seems to have their sights on the moon, so it'll be more of a stretch for SpaceX to do it alone. Here's the general timeline as I see it:

2020-2025 - Rapid expansion of launch vehicle capabilities (New Glenn, Starship, and maybe SLS)
2025-2030 - Manned missions to the moon to start building a base and to test out technology that would allow for long-term habitats. Also, unmanned missions to Mars that take far bigger payloads than we've ever sent there before.
2030-2035 - Manned missions to Mars, but we don't stay longer than we have to. (Granted, we might have to stay quite a while since you have to wait for the right launch window.)
2035+ - Long-term missions to Mars.

Of course, that's all just guessing. We could get there earlier or much later. Or, frankly, it's possible that we never really figure out how to live on Mars long-term. We'll see.

A tiny bit of extra info:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Meanwhile, at KSC.....<br><br>Falcon Heavy is getting closer.<br><br>*PRELIMINARY* (Dates are &quot;PENDING&quot;, but now on the Range):<br>Static Fire: NET March 31.<br>Launch: NET: April 7 - Window: 22:36 UTC to 00:35 UTC.<br>39A T/E Rollback is the next milestone.<a href="https://twitter.com/TheFavoritist?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TheFavoritist</a>&#39;s iconic photo: <a href="https://t.co/Z7KSVwznKT">pic.twitter.com/Z7KSVwznKT</a></p>&mdash; Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) <a href="https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1108384751868612608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Welp, this is what happens when I decide to include Boeing in the fun. Sounds like it's SpaceX's race to lose.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKCN1R12QR

Boeing delays by months test flights for U.S. human space program: sources


SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co has delayed by at least three months its first uncrewed flight to the International Space Station under NASA’s human spaceflight program, and pushed its crewed flight until November, industry sources said on Wednesday.

(more at the link)

As always, it's possible it will slip, but here's your one-week warning for the next FALCON HEAVY launch!

Thanks for the update. It’s interesting stuff

Is the thought that we could actually colonize Mars?

Theoretically, yes. But I'd be pretty surprised if anyone alive today ever sees more than a handful of people there at a time. It's...not exactly a hospitable place.

I read once that it's possible to colonize Venus, and Venus could be a more hospitable place in the long run.

The problem with Venus is that it has a massive amount of carbon dioxide, which produces all sorts of problems. But there are certain types of bacteria that could survive there and that eat carbon dioxide. So you fire a rocket there that's full of those bacteria, wait a hundred years or some such time until they clean the place up, and then introduce oxygen and water. Voila - you have created an inhabitable new world.

I, I, I, I is so excited! So excited!

Yeah, you get into terraforming and we just aren't anywhere close to that as a civilization yet.

Fun to think about though.

BREVARD COUNTY, Fla. —

SpaceX will attempt its second launch of the powerful, three-booster Falcon Heavy rocket this weekend.

The launch window opens at 6:36 p.m. Sunday.

It's not much, but Starhopper has officially been lit.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RAPTOR STATIC FIRE ON STARHOPPER! <a href="https://twitter.com/LabPadre?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LabPadre</a> <a href="https://t.co/adF07iL1Hg">pic.twitter.com/adF07iL1Hg</a></p>&mdash; Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) <a href="https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1113606734818545664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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And Falcon Heavy (sans fairing) is on the pad for a static fire today!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Launch Complex 39A: The first ever Block 5 <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SpaceX</a> Falcon Heavy stands vertical in the morning light in preparation for tonight&#39;s static fire test. <a href="https://t.co/HvcBlpqury">pic.twitter.com/HvcBlpqury</a></p>&mdash; Nathan Barker (@NASA_Nerd) <a href="https://twitter.com/NASA_Nerd/status/1113783578821844992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And we have CONFIRMATION that <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FalconHeavy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FalconHeavy</a>&#39;s static fire has slipped to tomorrow, Friday, 5 April. Test window is 10:00-19:00 EDT (1400-2300 UTC). Launch date is slipping, too. Will not be Sunday. SpaceX will confirm a new launch date once Static Fire is complete. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Arabsat6A?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Arabsat6A</a> <a href="https://t.co/waAtUQFSQt">pic.twitter.com/waAtUQFSQt</a></p>&mdash; Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisG_NSF/status/1113927904168169473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/11...888100352?s=09

Static fire of Falcon Heavy complete—targeting April 9 launch of Arabsat-6A from Launch Complex 39A in Florida

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Max thrust of 2550 tons will be almost 10% higher than Falcon Heavy demo mission last year</p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1114215249517981702?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 5, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Starhopper just lifted off &amp; hit tether limits! <a href="https://t.co/eByJsq2jiw">pic.twitter.com/eByJsq2jiw</a></p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1114390314565787648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 6, 2019</a></blockquote>
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That thing got up quick!

Water is the biggest issue to overcome for space travel.


If Mars doesn't have ice below the surface, the whole idea is dead in the water. Bringing water with us to a "colony" is just not sustainable.


They can make water out of thin air now. Too expensive on earth to be practical. Don't know if its even possible on Mars. The Israelis have been using desalinization to provide water since the 80's. But, that option, as far as I know is not available anywhere near us.


My son did some research in college that maybe as we travel along we could find trapped ice in large meteorites as a solution to providing water for space travel.

They're relatively certain there is water under the surface of Mars. They're cautiously optimistic there is water ON the surface of Mars, although some scientists call it "avalanches of sand".

https://www.popularmechanics.com/spa...id-water-mars/

Four days to get it back horizontal, back to the assembly building, get the cargo fitted, and back out to the pad?

Wow.

Eh, I bet it doesn't take that much to throw the payload and fairing on top. It's almost certainly been attached a number of times already, so they know it fits.

This is NOT that - it's from before the static fire - but is kind of cool to see them attaching everything together.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Booster mate inside SpaceX&#39;s hangar at LC-39A ahead of Falcon Heavy’s static fire yesterday <a href="https://t.co/G7ZPhOBkyj">pic.twitter.com/G7ZPhOBkyj</a></p>&mdash; SpaceX (@SpaceX) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1114611309180411905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 6, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Probably a repost, but I don't care:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VBlIvghQTlI" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

“Launch Reschedule Notification: SpaceX Falcon Heavy has been rescheduled to Wednesday, April 10th 2019. Launch window opens at 6:36 p.m.”

SpaceX officials did not return requests for confirmation Monday morning.

The highly anticipated launch, which is expected to draw 100,000 or more spectators to the region, will carry Saudi Arabia’s Arabsat-6A satellite into space.

The U.S. Air Force Weather Squadron’s forecast, released this weekend, had placed the probability of a successful Tuesday launch at 30 percent because of weather.

The probability of favorable weather on Wednesday was 80 percent.

This will be the first flight of the vehicle with three new Block 5 boosters.

Everything SEEMS to be on track for Falcon Heavy tomorrow! Window opens at 6:35pm EST and closes about 2 hours later. Here's hoping it goes off on time because I have a conflict starting at about 7pm EST!

Dat ass......

https://i.imgur.com/vUQwKhq.jpg

Space Exploration megathread
 

Black Hole captured via satellite. Amazing!!!

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...f3208d99f5.jpg

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...aign=r_science

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">First flight for Falcon Heavy Block 5 means there is some risk of failure between 5% to 10% imo. Many good design improvements from Falcon Heavy demo, but the changes are unproven.</p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1115998728878321672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote>
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GAAAHHHH...goddammit. I'm not going to be able to watch live.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Falcon Heavy and Arabsat-6A are vertical on Launch Complex 39A. Currently targeting liftoff at 8:00 p.m. EDT; monitoring upper-level winds that could push us to the end of the window (8:32 p.m. EDT) → <a href="https://t.co/gtC39uBC7z">https://t.co/gtC39uBC7z</a> <a href="https://t.co/Vbzbhy6PLz">pic.twitter.com/Vbzbhy6PLz</a></p>&mdash; SpaceX (@SpaceX) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1116057892140998656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Sunset is 7:42pm EDT. Should be epic!

Going to apollo 11 for the fifth time tonite. Last day it’s in the theaters (AMC anyway). Feel sorry for any of you who missed this on the big screen

Five times? That's a bit much even for me. :)

But yeah, it's worth the watch. Really cool to see it all unfold sequentially.

Looks like they're pushing all the way to the end of the window.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New T-0 of 8:32 p.m. EDT due to upper-level winds. Vehicle and payload still look good for launch.</p>&mdash; SpaceX (@SpaceX) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1116108354001051648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote>
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That'll make it basically an instantaneous window at that point, so we'll see if they get it off. Unfortunately I won't be able to catch up until late tonight, so I hope you guys get to enjoy the show.

Is this webcast only?

It won't be on NASA TV if that's what you're asking (since it's a private company's mission).

Doesn't sound promising. But at least I'd get to watch if they postpone. :)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Upper atmospheric wind shear is very high. Will have to postpone launch unless weather improves soon.</p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1116110823015849985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Thanks. I just switched over to NASA and there was a guy on stage doing comedy. They should maybe rethink that.

That doesn't bode well.

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/11...192690176?s=19

It's off for today.

A funny astrophysicist? Isn't that, or shouldn't that be an oxymoron?

Well, sucks it got scrubbed, but I should be able to watch tomorrow night at least! Pretty much the same timing - window opens at 6:35pm EST.

Are we going to launch this piece of shit?

Hope so. Looks like weather is 90% favorable today (80% yesterday). High-level winds can be a bitch, so we'll see.

Beautiful picture of the black hole.

Aww...that little lunar lander that SpaceX launched a few months back didn't make it.

https://gizmodo.com/israels-bereshee...oon-1833979818

Israel's Beresheet Probe Crashes on the Moon
George Dvorsky

The Beresheet probe crash-landed on the Moon earlier today, dashing Israel’s hopes of becoming only the fourth country to land a functioning probe on the lunar surface.

“We lost it,” said a SpaceIL official a few minutes after mission controllers lost contact with the Beresheet probe. “We failed to land the spacecraft.”

The descent had been proceeding normally until the probe was around 11 kilometers (6.8 miles) above the lunar surface. And in fact, Beresheet even managed to take a selfie a few minutes earlier, at around 22 kilometers (13.6 miles) from the surface.

“Well, we didn’t make it. But we definitely tried,” said another SpaceIL official. “And I think that the achievement of getting to where we got is really tremendous. I think we can be proud.”

The exact cause of the malfunction has not been disclosed, but the probe appeared to have experienced an engine failure during the descent. Israel was trying to become only the fourth country to land a probe on the Moon, the others being the United States, the Soviet Union, and China.

“If at first you don’t succeed, you try again,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said to the crowd gathered at the SpaceIL control center.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">All systems and weather are currently go ahead of tonight’s Falcon Heavy launch of Arabsat-6A from Pad 39A; launch window opens at 6:35 p.m. EDT, or 22:35 UTC → <a href="https://t.co/gtC39uBC7z">https://t.co/gtC39uBC7z</a></p>&mdash; SpaceX (@SpaceX) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1116442323477381120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 11, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">T-1 hour until Falcon Heavy launch of Arabsat-6A. Webcast will go live about 15 minutes before liftoff → <a href="https://t.co/gtC39uBC7z">https://t.co/gtC39uBC7z</a></p>&mdash; SpaceX (@SpaceX) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1116454697127124992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 11, 2019</a></blockquote>
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If anyone's looking for something to watch pregame, Everyday Astronaut hosts a live stream for pretty much every launch, and he's there live today.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QpX16SePpVA" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

LET'S LIGHT THESE CANDLES!!!

72,117 waiting on the Official SpaceX Launch Webcast right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXMGu2d8c8g

EDIT: Just went live. Test Shot Starfish.

Webcast is up.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TXMGu2d8c8g" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Good stream here:

https://www.spacex.com/webcast

That's a beautiful rocket and launch tower. Wow.

My juices are flowing. 255,786 watching now

This is such an intense launch to watch. So much happens so quickly!

Stream breaking UP!!!

OMG!!!

Max Q

What a launch shot!

BECO!

Look at that separation shot! Wow!

Oh wow! Video from the ground of boost back!!!?

MECO!

Now let's land all those suckers.

If they stick all three, I'm going to shit myself.

Their production values for this one are great. All of these views are fantastic.

Ha ha.


I'm pretty freaking nervous.

YESSSSSS!!!

Oh, man. That's so fun.

Come on center core!!!!

YEAAAAAH!!!!

Yes?

LOL! Damnit!

There she is!

Yes!!!!!!

Wow. How cool.

Wow. Unbelievable...

Always awesome! I am still in awe of watching a sci-fi looking double landing happening here on Earth.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Falcons have landed <a href="https://t.co/BGQRNuYMVH">pic.twitter.com/BGQRNuYMVH</a></p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1116473976828522496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 11, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Ha! Good for him. What an amazing day for space geeks.