Let's say for the sake of argument that Tannehill does go off. How would that look? Who's he throwing the ball to?

AJ Brown, obviously. Although just 1 reception for 17 yards when we played them in November. But he's the easiest threat to identify.

Then you've got Corey Davis. Had two notable games this year: one 6 for 80, the other 5 for 91. Didn't do much the rest of the year (43/601/2 TD total over 16). He only cleared 50 yards in one other game.

Those were the only two players on the entire roster over 500 yards for the season. And there was only one other - TE Jonnu Smith, over 400.

So, again, let's say Tannehill does somehow transform into some other quarterback than himself. He's no longer the guy who can't read defenses or diagnose blitzes or deliver accurate passes any distance beyond the line of scrimmage. What does he do and how does he do it?

Is this moving the chains? Is this quick scores? Sustained drives seems more feasible, judging by his receiving corps and the likely focus on tight ends and running backs. Is there a real deep threat there? Because would contend that despite his numbers AJ Brown is more of a possession receiver. Although he can break a long one. Is there anyone else?

And can the Titans keep Tannehill's jersey clean if they do decide to throw the ball? Because he takes a lot of sacks.

It just seems like a risky approach to take, looking at their roster in a vacuum. Anything is possible, but I'm not sure where the production would come from.

But that's not exactly unusual in the playoffs...

Here’s the Tyreek miss Pat had in the first matchup. That’s an outlier for sure. Won’t happen again

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The future. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#chiefs</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/nfl?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#nfl</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/chiefskingdom?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#chiefskingdom</a> <a href="https://t.co/GtCjo8d6p3">pic.twitter.com/GtCjo8d6p3</a></p>&mdash; Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/LRiddickESPN/status/1196605525380730880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tannehill ****ing sucks.

That seems like a fairly normal missed throw to me. The fumble TD is a much, much flukier play.

Also a big miss to Watkins in that game on a 3rd down in our territory... Mahomes won't miss those tomorrow.

Vrabel was a tough, hard nosed football player.

But he wasn't dirty.

And I don't expect any especially dirty play from his team. It's not his style.

Did you watch the Titans last week?

They were pretty ****ing dirty.

Yeah, we will see if they target Kelce again with a cheap shot to the head.

Dirty bastards.

of course I watched.

I saw a lot of jawing, but am I missing something specific? I didn't notice anything really late or anything

He's from the Patriots, so I don't think it's unfair to expect dirty stuff from his team.

This is basically my thinking as well. Tannehill isn't going to change his spots in one week. He's never been a guy that can consistently can put a team on his shoulders and carry them to victory with his arm. Or even with his arm and legs. That's not who he's ever been.

Now, has he played well since becoming the starter? Sure, no question.

But in order for him to carry the load against the Chiefs, he'd have to complete a lot better than 50% of his passes. He'd have to convert a lot more 3rd downs.

And his primary receivers would have to perform at a much higher success rate than they have throughout the season.

And their defense would have to cut the Chiefs offensive efficiency in half.

That's just a huge ask to have all three of those things happen in one game. Tannehill would have to complete 15% more of his passes. His receivers would have to catch 60-70% more passes. They would have to score twice as often than they have for the season, including the playoffs. And their defense would have to force the Chiefs offense to be 50% less effective.

And it doesn't work if they only get one of those things to happen. They have to get at least three of the four to happen to beat KC.

If Tannehill leads them to some easy, quick TDs, and transforms this game into a shoot out, I still like our odds.

Expect to win. Period. This team was built for the long run.

Hand warmers. Check.
Foot warmers. Check.
Two pairs of smartwool socks. Check.
Under armour expedition rated base layer. Check.

Cardboard, throat lozenges, the Chiefs coat my grandma gave me 25 years ago, waterproof boots, check, check, check, check.

My body is ready.

Saw a stat that Tightens are 13-0 when Henry hits 100 in his career. Not that that matters but just another weird stat.

About to be 13-1.

Tannehill made 3 clutch throws against the Patriots/Ravens.

1. Late in the Patriots game, it was 3rd and 8. The game was 14-13. It looked like Brady was about to get the ball back and win the game. Tannehill threw a perfect ball to get the 1st down conversion. Titans run some more clock and punt down to the Patriots 1 yard line. Brady pick 6 and that's all she wrote.

2. Red Zone clutch touchdown pass on 3rd down against the Ravens. Gave the Titans a 7-0 lead instead of 3-0.

3. Play action 50 yard bomb for TD on the Ravens. This one put them up 14-0 and then the Ravens went into panic mode.

I do as well. Tannehill would have to have a transcendent game to win a shoot-out with Pat. And so would the rest of the Titans team.

When I watched the hype video earlier in the thread, one of the things I came away with was that TEN played at a very high level. Probably one of their best games of the year overall. It wasn't the norm for them. And they still only scored on four of their possessions and needs both a fumble return for a TD and a botch kick by us and a blocked FG attempt to win.

It was like a perfect storm of rare occurrences that all favored TEN. And they had to play one of the best games they ever played in 2019.

What are the odds all of that happens again?

And Pat is the ultimate shoot-out QB. As in ever in NFL history. If TEN wants to get into a shoot-out tomorrow, they would have no chance at all.

Which is why I think Andy and Spags are going to try and make it a shoot-out.

Yep. Andy is about to be 2-8 against them too. I just don’t think the Oile.... Tightens have the horses to keep up this time. Team is on a mission and they won’t be denied.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The NFL fined <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> LT Eric Fisher $14,037 for unsportsmanlike conduct — dumping two beers on himself while celebrating a touchdown last week against the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Texans?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Texans</a>. ��</p>&mdash; Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1218650635245182976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Meanwhile <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> RB Damien Williams was fined $10,527 for unsportsmanlike conduct – dropping the ball in front of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Texans?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Texans</a> NT Brandon Dunn after Williams scored a touchdown.</p>&mdash; Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1218650973264019457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Worth it.

Totally worth it! LMAO

Fish got almost $11 million in cash this year.

Not sure what your point is, sorry.

But I will say that three completed passes are not going to get it done against the Chiefs. TEN can't hold the Chiefs offense to a pair of TDs for the whole game. They are going to have to score around 28-35 points to be in this game. Not sure I see a way for them to do that.

So ****ing stupid.

My point is that the guy is capable of hitting clutch plays and he was arguably the X-Factor in their wins the last two games. He was arguably the X-Factor in their win over the Chiefs earlier in the season too. He played out of his mind in that game.

The XFactor was the fumble and the Chiefs STs ****ups.

Yes, they were major factors. Titans lose without those 3 plays. But they also lose if Tannehill doesn't put up a 134 passer rating in that game, including some clutch throws late.

I can’t gifs to work. ****

**** the king

https://media1.tenor.com/images/4ca9...itemid=3480017

That’s what I was going for

Henry VIII had a gangrenous leg thus forcing him to walk with a cane

Sorenson

https://i.imgur.com/VEVIJGY.jpg?1

Dirty Dan the King Slayer!

Chiefs win 31-21

That's kind of my point.

We both agree that the week 10 game was a high point for Tannehill, right? It wasn't his average game? He had to perform at a much higher level than normal?

How often do you think he does that? It can be all that often, or it wouldn't be him "playing out of his mind," right? So the odds favor that he won't play at that high level this Sunday; that he'll play closer to his average, yes?

And in spite of Tannehill playing above his normal level, the TEN offense only managed four scoring drives. Out of ten possible. And our defense couldn't stop a running nose bleed that day, right?

So my argument has been that for TEN to win they have to get another incredible performance out of Tannehill (and the odds are against that), they have to get a much better day out of their receivers (nothing statistically suggests that this is going to happen either), and that their defense has to suddenly play much better in the RZ than they have all year (they allow a TD in the RZ 68% of the time. Only HOU is worse at 71%).

Offensively, the Chiefs only have to score TDs 15% more often than in our first meeting. Which is still below the Chiefs season average.

Our defense doesn't even have to play significantly better than last time; just limit TEN to about 4 scoring drives which is slightly above their average. That's it.

Barring an extraordinary performance from all three TEN units and/or a catastrophic meltdown by the Chiefs, we are going to win this one. It might be close for awhile, but TEN simply doesn't have enough horses to keep up tomorrow.

See how it goes. Here is Tannehill's game log. He had a bunch of games this season above 130 passer rating. It was an "out of his mind" season in general for him.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/game...ryan-tannehill

Let's not get carried away here. He was barely over 50% passing and had 160 yards combined in the wild card and divisional games. And in that game you characterize as 'out of his mind,' he threw 19 passes and finished under 190 yards. He's been a compliment, at best, and a minor one at that, at least in the games you mentioned.

I mean, seriously, is anyone arguing that taking the ball out of Henry's hands and hoping that Tannehill can keep up with Mahomes and company in a shootout is a recipe for anything but a long flight home for Tennessee? I mean, I can see the possibility of Tannehill breaking a play or two off of play action, but people are making it sound like he's Aaron Rodgers.

134 passer rating is pretty ridiculous. You disagree?

He is going to throw at least 1 interception and fumble a ball away. 2 turnovers minimum. Titans fans will want to ship him back to Miami.

Don’t you think that is easier to achieve with the limited amount of attempts?

Yes of course. And with a strong running game to setup play action. Jared Goff in 2018 is an example of that. You still have to execute the throws. Tannehill's previous career high passer rating was under 94 for a season. He averaged over 117 this year. The guy is out of his mind these days.

Tanny is not that good. He had his shot and was let go. He's nothing more than Henry. They win because of the running game. Keep Henry from going nuts and they will lose.

Anything can happen, especially in a football game. I just don't see Tannehill suddenly throwing for 300+ and 3-4 TDs. Could it happen? Sure. We have endless examples of QBs whose play rose far above their normal for a game or two.

But it's unlikely.

And I just have more confidence in Spags/House/Daly than I do in one former bust Tannehill.

Well, and Honey Badger. I think he's going to steal Tannie's heart tomorrow.

I found this last night, and meant to share it this morning. Spags talks for a minute about HB and how he plays:
<iframe width="853" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4XBgmy2hhD4" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I especially like the part where Spags say, "I'm watching him (HB) and he starts doing his thing, and I'm saying, 'where is he going? That's not how we drew that up? Oh, good job . . .'" Pretty funny.

Look it, the time for talk is over. We have analyzed things every way imaginable. We know on paper who the better team is. We know this can and should be the first time this playoff season the Titans are going to face an offense that can score and will not hand them a short field.

Victory comes down to these simple things tomorrow:

1. Take care of the ball
2. Don't hand them short fields
3. Pray the fluky bullshit that plagues us in these games is kept away
4. Defend your house

Saw on the video in another thread.

Mahomes 8-0 after a 4 td game

Mahomes 3-4 against BB coaching tree.

Looks like he’ll be evening out after this one.

Get your voodoo candles, dolls and whatever else out and let's recall and banish the whack job things that have happened to us in the past. Curse them away....

1. TG out of bounds takes away TD
2. Holding on a FG to tie the game that was missed after the penalty
3. Fumble bounces back to QB who scores a TD
4. Phantom hold on 2pt conversion to tie game
5. Forward progress called on QB sack and fumble which kept the ball with offense and led to FG
6. Pass deflected back to QB who catches it and scores TD
7. Roughing the passer called on 2 & 7 for literally touching Tom Brady's shoulder which avoided 3rd & 7 and gave them 1st & 10 and ended up in a TD

Next we curse away the choke and unfortunate plays and coaching decisions:

1. QB gets hurt in the AFCCG game
2. 4 INT's
3. 3 missed FG's
4. Missed FG to tie
5. No forced punts
6. Star RB gets hurt for the game
7. Can't get foot in bounds to set up game winning FG
8. Can't convert 2 pt conversion
9. Defense can't hold 28 point lead
10. Star TE takes cheap shot and is out for game
11. Defense can't hold 17 point lead
12.Defense can't hold 3 point lead for 2 min allows TD
13. Defense allows opening drive TD in OT

Say whatever prayers you must say...
Pray to whatever Gods or Goddesses you pray too...
Wear your socks backwards, inside out, whatever...

It's time for us to have a game free of the fluke bullshit.
It's time for us to have a game free of chokes.

I have a beef with calling Vrabel a part of the Belichick coaching tree. I'm not calling you out, Coochie, because I saw that stat quoted on GMFB. I know it's being put out there, but I think it's fake news. It's a shitty stat. Vrabel is NOT a part of the Belichick tree.

Vrabel's only direct connection to Belichick was as a player, not a coach. Well, if that's the case, then can't you make the argument that Kliff Kingsbury belongs on the Belichick coaching tree? I don't see anybody doing that.

In fact, Vrabel has said many times that he was bitter about the way Belichick tossed him out the door in the Cassel trade. It was almost like Belichick said, "And if you call in the next 10 minutes, we'll throw in Mike Vrabel absolutely free!" just to sweeten the pot. If you despise the people you worked with, are you a part of that tree?

He was surrounded by Belichick disciples in Houston through Bill O'Brien, but that doesn't mean he's from the Belichick tree.

Same coaching family is good enough? That's the only other argument I can think of. Problem there is many guys work under multiple head coaches over a career. Are we double-dipping now? Or do we have to run a 23 and me on a guy's goddamn coaching heritage? Like, John Harbaugh is firmly a part of the Andy Reid coaching tree. Philadelphia Andy Reid is the only NFL head coach he has known to work under. But John Harbaugh has had the following assistants in his time as a head coach:

Rex Ryan
Hue Jackson
Chuck Pagano
Jim Caldwell
Gary Kubiak
Mike Pettine
Vic Fangio

Strong heritage connection or not, it just doesn't work to go back two generations and claim those guys under Andy Reid. You MIGHT have an argument for some of them under the John Harbaugh tree, but that's it.

We need more clarification on this!

Agreed. Vrabel is not part of the BB tree.

He doesn't throw 24 passes a game. Those are under really favorable conditions. If he has to throw he's not so good.

So it’s going to be extremely cold tomorrow. I don’t hate it.

I know Mahomes can play in that stuff, not sure about Tannehill...

Not going to be much different than the Indy game last year. Plus our field is heated.

I agree with this. Vrabel is just ASSOCIATED with BB because he played under him.

and while I'm sure it has influenced his view of how an NFL team is organized and run, it doesn't mean he's from 'THE TREE'.

We’re at t-minus 20 hours guys. I’m really starting to feel it now.

LFG!!!!!!!!

Me too. The Anxiety is starting to build. Last week i woke up at 2:30 AM and couldn't fall back asleep.

When Miami beat NE I called the Chiefs v. Titans for the AFCCG. I knew the NE offense could not produce and the Ravens would be wishing they hadn't rested their starters for so long.

Although I think the Ravens lost more to idiotic coaching to a point I was right in large part.

I also called the Chiefs by 17 over the Texans

On the Monday before the Texans game I had a dream we were up 43-0 in the first half. You can imagine how I felt when I saw that it might happen except we were looking to be on the wrong end of things.

Now I can't get a read on this game. I am admittedly conflicted by the past and the luck the Titans seem to always have against us. Somehow, some way they always seems to pull something out of their ass with or without assistance from the Refs.

So now I can only come to this conclusion at the moment:

We already had our game against them this season where the lucky, fluke bullshit bailed them out. So it's done for this season. No more.

We broke the Indy chokehold in the playoffs last season
This season we break the Tennessee shit

As much as everyone is talking up Henry, the odds and situation favor us.

But I will say this, if the Titans can come in here and beat us then hats off to them for what they have accomplished. I don't think they will or want them too, especially via a fluke play or call.

All that being said, 38-17 Chiefs

Everyone is really shitting on Ryan Tannehill. He put up the best passer rating in the NFL this year. He is certainly capable. Yes he has a huge benefit of getting to play with the best RB and getting to catch defenses off balance a bit when they do pass since it isn't as often as the NFL norm but hes had a great year and can make plays.

He is not without talent. He throws a nice deep ball

Top 10 draft pick. Do not underestimate

Tannehill has made the most of his opportunities this season that's for sure. But he has a great running game to key off and people didn't have any tape on him in this offense.

When you're asked to throw less than 100 yards a game you don't have to be Mahomes. That being said you can't go to sleep on any QB in the playoffs. But if I have to choose my poison I pick him. I would do everything to take away the run and force him to beat us.

people are forgetting this is a 9-7 team who had to beat a texans team in the final week resting their starters to get into the playoffs. Chiefs by 14+ and i can’t wait to see and feel all the excitement around the KC area

It’s not so much about shitting on Tannehill, it’s about analyzing the matchup.

Tannehill on the road vs a top 10-12 pass defense

-or-

Mahomes at home vs a bottom 10-12 pass defense

Huge advantage for KC.

The only thing giving me any worry about losing has nothing to do with the actual play on the field. That is that the ultimate “because Chiefs” moment would be to have lost these games all the time in the past as the team with a running game and the need to play perfect, mistake free, and force turnovers, only to lose to the superior QB and then now that it is finally reversed with us having the QB we somehow lose to the inferior running team.

I know that this has nothing to do with the actual game though and we have the QB who can overcome anything so I am still confident we will roll them and win by double digits.

Mildly funny story about what a dumbass I am:

I live in TN and it was cold and raining like a MF today so I grabbed an old windbreaker out of my closet this morning. Everywhere I went people were telling me "Titans are gonna win tomorrow!" Christ, these guys are pumped up for this game if they're walking up to random strangers and saying this shit. And then I realized that the old windbreaker I was wearing had a big Titans logo on the back. That thing had been in the back of my closet since I was in highschool.

In conclusion:

1) Titans fans may or may not be excited about this game
2) I really need to clean out my closet
3) I tell really boring anecdotes

mostly what I took from this anecdote was this:

I'm old.

When I was in high school, they were the ****ing Oilers from Houston.

:D

Understand where you are coming from. I hope Patrick is the right guy to exorcise the demons that have cursed the Chiefs franchise for 50 years.

I think what we could all agree on is this:

The Chiefs are a much more talented team.

The Chiefs have a generational talent at QB.

Usually, almost always, in a play-off scenario, that means you win.

We are apprehensive 'because Chiefs', because so many times we've believed, we've had our hearts ripped out, often on flukey bullshit calls and weird shit so many times we have a hard time comprehending that this time we really do see what we think we see.

This time is different. It really is. It's not a mirage.

Could weird flukey shit happen again? Sure, yeah, of course. So much flukey shit that even Mahomes can't overcome it? After last week, I say," Naw. Hell naw."

You know the funny thing?

I think I'm going to be more emotional if/when we win the game tomorrow than if/when we actually win the damned Super Bowl.

Because if/when we win tomorrow, then I KNOW it's really for REAL and not just another cruel joke.

Intellectually, I know it's not. I know that.

I know that this defense really did turn a corner, and can be relied upon to do their part.

I know that Patrick Mahomes really IS what he appears to be.

I know.

I BELIEVE.

And by this time tomorrow, I will have indisputable proof.

And THAT is when I'ma cry like Jimmy Stewart at the end of It's a Wonderful Life.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thank you Dave ��������❤️ <a href="https://t.co/zcWaOge8i4">https://t.co/zcWaOge8i4</a></p>&mdash; Ty Hill (@cheetah) <a href="https://twitter.com/cheetah/status/1218702948676636673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Well ****ing said and I hope we’re all crying like Jimmy Stewart tomorrow.

That is pretty cool!

I'm preparing my finest dress sock. Tomorrow night goin' be hawt

I don't think people are forgetting anything. Tannehill was the #3 rated QB behind Luck and RG3. Scored 34 on the Wonderlick. He's an athlete. He played on a bad team in Miami and multiple coaching changes. The Tits aren't asking him to win games, just not lose them.

If I were a Tits fan, I would be worried more about how they expect to stop the Chiefs offense. The media is building up the Tits because they can't just talk about the Chiefs and Mahomes all the time. Just as they are giving the 49ers and Packers equal coverage.

Am I the only one who finds it weird that out of all the AFC powerhouses and rivals we've played throughout the years, it's the freakin' Tennessee Titans that represent the last hurdle for us to reach the grandest stage of them all?

It just feels out of place.

People are forgetting that the first six games do not matter on their record because they were using Mariota. They are night and day better with Tanny

I like this post man. I’ve never thought about it this way but I think you’re absolutely right. I guess they just sprout their own seeds and make their own trees. Either way I think Mahomes is 0-1 against Vrabel and he should bring it to 1-1 tomorrow.

Hopefully not the part of the movie where he's crying and trying to kill himself. :huh:STFU:spock:

At the end of the day, it's still Ryan Tannehill

Same way the first half of the season our defense doesn't matter including the last meeting. We had many injuries and Mahomes was hobbled.