Yes, definitely a good group of guys in here.

This is just straight insincere. There is NOBODY in house that can give the Royals a replica of what Santana did in '13. Hopefully this is just some form of super secret double probation GM talk.

If not, then GMDM just needs to come out and say it - "My boss has refused to give me any more money to sign players."

You ****ing sassing us with sarcasm, brah???!!!

Refusing to re-engage Santana is disappointing, especially on a 1 year deal. But at least things are moving toward a draft pick.

While this seems to be absolutely true, there is one problem. A lot of people, not just the Royals, seem to believe that not even Santana can repeat what Santana did last year. I'm basing this off of his very inconsistent career ERA-wise. He has a very high ceiling, no doubt, but a very low floor as well.

But on a low-risk 1 year deal.. yeah I don't have much else to say. Frustrating.


Just trying to make sense of this..

Man, I'd still rather invest long term in Santana then Shields. Leading the league in innings pitched year after year. There's been a few dude's whose arms held up, but not too many

Well for 5 million for a small market like the Royals, for a reliever, that's crippling, in my opinion. And, while the injury to Luke was just sad and sucks for everyone involved, that's just piss-poor management by Dayton Moore and the Royals.

Part of the job of a GM is to not throw your owner under the bus, and to stick to your budget without explicitely saying you have a hard budget.

If you can't or won't do that, you won't be a GM, especially for a small-market team.

An argument can actually be made that Vargas might be the better pitcher. Santana's highs are higher than Vargas, but Vargas won't give up the amazing number of home runs that Santana did in Orange County.

"crippling" is defined as a career-ender in the first few years of a Pujols type of deal. You might be thinking that the insurance only costs 50k or something, but that may not be the case.

This isn't some blunder by the royals, it is widespread MLB practice to rarely take out these insurance policies for any but the richest of contracts. Apparently the pricing and restrictions for baseball player insurance is so unattractive, that you don't buy the insurance unless you really have to. $5MM for 1 year is not even remotely crippling for any team. The insurance company is not a non-profit, they aren't going to price the contract at a break-even. If you are going to write this kind of a weird exotic policy without a lot of Actuarial data, you are going to demand a lot of expected ROI.

No, but if you want to come at me, COME AT ME bro!!!

Looking like something might happen as early as today. Reports this morning that he has a 1 year deal in place for $14 million with an unnamed AL team. Has to be disappointing for Erv in a big picture, but with as desperate as things have gotten for him I'd have to consider that a slight WIN.

At the end of the day, he's going to be getting a contract at the same value as the QO he turned down months ago. But it's a lot better than some of the speculation of late once he said he was willing to play on another 1 year deal.

Do we still get the draft pick?

Cheap ****ers. I hate the ****ing Glass family.


Dollars to donuts our comp pick is in 50's... because at this point those are the teams willing to give up a pick and the money.

Yes, we'll still get a comp pick. The only way we wouldn't, unless I misunderstand the rules, is if he waited to sign until after the draft.

I'm no Glass defender by a long shot, but I seriously don't see how any bad words can be thrown in the front office direction on the Santana saga. We bought him cheap for a year, he gave us great production and we'll net an extra draft pick out of the whole situation. It's actually picture perfect and exactly what we'd have hoped for if having this conversation 12 months ago.

And as far as not forking over the $$ and signing him now? Well, he's "reportedly" going to get a deal for roughly the same as his QO from the Royals. NO ONE....especially Santana and his unemployed former agent, saw this coming. We couldn't have planned on that guy's stupid shenanigans. You have to put an offseason plan together and Ervin made it clear to the Royals he wanted multiple years for high dollars. That's where we move on and start assembling our starting 5, and take the comp pick to the bank. I see no cheap Glass, stupid Dayton here. And trust me, I'm often of the opinion they are incompetent.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Ervin basically wants do-over on qualifying offer, so $14M is magic figure. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23jays&amp;src=hash">#jays</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23o&amp;src=hash">#o</a>&#39;s. <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/dSoldevila">@dSoldevila</a> on this</p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/statuses/442315444175642624">March 8, 2014</a></blockquote>
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yay. we get a sandwich pick. hooray. Santana's ppl came back to the royals YESTERDAY saying he'd sign a one year deal... The front office has done nothing wrong other than give us a ONE YEAR WINDOW with Jason ****ING Vargas as our no. 2 starter.... news flash, Vargas sucks. As does Jguts... they are not great starting pitchers, and they are certainly not 2s or 3s on a playoff team. But, wait, what about the young guys? This front office gives me no confidence that they can develop starting pitching, because... THEY NEVER HAVE, EVER. Look up the number of DM picks to start in the big leagues...be my guest.

So, yeah, we have this one year with James Shields... who is going to leave. Then we back to the bottom of the pile.

But thank god we stuck to Glass' budget....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Wade Davis is out of the fifth starter competition. He&#39;s moving to the back end of the bullpen.</p>&mdash; Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/statuses/442326683127803905">March 8, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>James Shields will start Opening Day and Jason Vargas will start Game 2. Jeremy Guthrie gets the home opener. Game 3 is undecided.</p>&mdash; Andy McCullough (@McCulloughStar) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/statuses/442326878724976640">March 8, 2014</a></blockquote>
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On one hand, I'm glad to see that Yost has enough sense to keep Davis in the 'pen. On the other, it makes the Myers trade more frustrating.

Wrong, our comp pick will be a sandwich 1st-round pick regardless of who signs him. Even if the signing team has to give up a mere 3rd-rounder, that doesn't impact what we gain, their pick just disappears, and our comp pick just appears in a different spot.

edit: as of right now, our comp pick appears to be #29, which would be pretty high.

The #5 starter is between Duffy and Ventura. Loser goes to Omaha.

I assume that if they feel its a tie, then Duffy will get it for service time reasons. They could wait to bring Ventura up until sometime in early May to get that extra year.

I bet we'd have to go 16-17M to get Santana now.

Signing him for one year doesn't make any sense at all for us at this point. It might make sense for someone who has already burned their top 2 picks.

At this point, people need to factor in that comp pick. If we presume that it is now a virtual certainty that Santana will not go unsigned past June, then that ~#29 pick is ours, in the bag, in our draft order. If we want to sign him, we are not just out the money, we also surrender a pretty high draft pick, all to have him for one more year?

Unless he inexplicably gets forced into the rotation and then explodes into awesomeness, I think this is the last year we'll see Wade Davis in KC. He's already too expensive as a back-end bullpen pitcher, there's no way in hell we should exercise any of his 3 team options. We'll give him his buyout and close the book on "the trade".

edit: Here's our roster, with option info updated to correct a few mistakes.

Not trying to argue with you over Glass' cheapness and how deep his pockets are. But you're just completely overlooking the fact that this worked exactly as we had hoped. Couldn't have gone better, actually. Dream scenario for a one year player...he pitched well and we're going to get a high pick and more $$$ for the draft because of it.

It seems to me that you think without a doubt that Santana will replicate the season he had last year. In actuality, it's pretty unlikely. Especially when you look at his history. Dropping $15M for one more season and losing the extra pick doesn't make much sense. We have no idea the exact number Santana's people demanded in order for him to come back. And you can't exactly wait until 3 weeks before the season to set your starting 5.

1 year deal def doesn't help the royals except now our 'year', that pick is valued, obviously why he hasn't signed at this point.

yeah, I think we would have been happy if he accepted the QO, and then someone who we later signed wouldn't be here now in his place. Once he declined the QO, that suddenly introduced a new high draft pick that wasn't there before we offered the QO. That high draft pick is tough for us to give up unless he agreed to a long-term budget-friendly deal. 1 year? No way, forget about it.

edit: here's what we have now.

#17

Comp pick, currently #29 and probably won't move

The 5th competitive balance A pick, it will be somewhere in the high 30's or low 40's. This pick is tradable.

Then our 2nd rounder will be about the 15th 2nd round pick. Overall, we'll have 4 of the top 55 or so, and 3 of the top 40 or so. Thats quite a haul, and similar to what the Rays have been doing.

Sorry Davis, thats what happens when you suck.

By the way, the new beat writer is a must-follow if you are on twitter. That young guy has turned out to be a worthy successor to old man Dutton.

Tim Brown ‏@TBrownYahoo 5m

.@dSoldevila reporting Ervin Santana has a one-year, $14m deal with Toronto Blue Jays.

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 23s

Source close to Ervin Santana talks says Blue Jays do not have an agreement in place with him at this moment. But they are working on it.

According to twitter, the Blue Jays are very close to signing Santana. Its not a done deal yet, but they are working on it.

He wants his offense right? get those W's up instead of focusing on pitching like he did last year

The blue jays are bizarrely well-positioned to sign him because both of their first rounders are protected. They only have to give up #50 (which would also bump up our 2nd-round pick one spot)

Bruce Arthur ‏@bruce_arthur 1m

Per @Enrique_Rojas1, Ervin Santana will sign a one-year, $14M deal with the Blue Jays if he doesn't get a better offer by 5pm. Suspense!

Wonder if the http://i246.photobucket.com/albums/g...hawk/siren.gif mystery NL team http://i246.photobucket.com/albums/g...hawk/siren.gif will step forward!

I wonder what would happen if the Royals tried to match that.

We need to match this, we won't, obviously, but Santana is certainly worth more than a second round pick.

So Chen is an unquestioned starter?
Posted via Mobile Device

We aren't getting a 2nd round pick. What we get has absolutely nothing to do with what Toronto would lose.

Toronto would lose #50, we would gain #29.

Chen's role is "Ventura's seat-warmer, until we get that extra year of control"

Unless Ventura beats Duffy so badly that they start him #5, then I don't know how long Chen starts.

Thanks for the clarification, I still would prefer a year of Santana over #29. This FO doesn't exactly have a sterling pedigree when it comes to the draft.

Not sure why anyone is even debating the comp pick. It's almost worthless. I can provide you a list of all the MLB sandwich and 2nd round picks in the past decade and you won't find more than a couple who even made it to the league. I get the BB America prospect guide each year and occassionally leaf through it when I'm bored. And prior draft picks almost never pan out. So who cares what Santana brings back comp wise?


Here's the reality: he is too expensive for us either for one year or multiple years. We've moved on. Dayton made a really nice decision last year and I suspect he's making another good one.

The way things are starting to look, manaea was an absolute steal with the comp pick last year

Wil Myers was drafted with the #91 pick. The comp pick would be #29. It doesn't matter if it is a comp pick, sandwich pick or regular draft pick. It is what it is, the #29 selection in the draft.

If the #29 pick is worthless then everything after the first round is worthless.

#29 is a nice bonus for 1 year of Santana

You sign Santana you lose #29 and 14 mill...they weren't getting multiple years

The question is: Are we a better team with Santana in the rotation this season? You can't with a straight face say we aren't. This is a one year window with JS in the rotation - who we have not intention of resigning...

We are the 3rd best team in our division at the moment.... My frustration comes from thinking maybe Glass should sack up and give us puncher's chance...

So now we take our very mediocre 2-5 starters and go to war with Detroit and Cleveland. Well, good luck. I hope Duffy is a star, I hope Ventura is a star...Adam... all of them... But I just get sick seeing Santana sign with the Jay or O's for a one year deal, when he wanted to stay here.

What besides his words have shown he wanted to stay here. He turned down the same offer he is going to accept from KC earlier in the year.

Besides his words? He turned down the offer months ago...before his market crashed.

Are you saying he wouldn't sign if we offered him the same as the Jays? Hell, DM was on the radio yesterday saying he had recently spoken to his reps... what do you think it was about? True Detective? I'm sure it was along the lines of we'd accept a one year deal close to the QO... DM can't do it because he has tight owner.

This is the sad reality of baseball in KC as long as Glass is owner.


Also the ****ing fact that two years later - once Shields leaves - we will have traded 7 years of Wil Myers for a ****ing 8th inning reliever in Wade Davis makes me want to puke my ****ing brains out.

Once you have signed Vargas and Chen it doesn't make sense to spend 14 mil and the #29 pick on another starter. While I have hated Glass for a long time, I think that this team probably needs to operate around 90 Million at least at this point in time. I would love him to go spend another 14 mil but I won't tear Glass apart for not doing it.

If we were sitting at 45 million like we were a few years ago, then sure.

I am with you on the Shields deal, I get why they did it but I don't like it.

I'm curious, for this year, what payroll level would everyone think that Glass is no longer being cheap?

I think they have done a terrible job of spending their $ (Hoch, Davis etc.) But I am not that upset with the amount?

See this is where we disagree... it makes complete sense. Santana pushes those two tire fires back a slot in the rotation. The 29th pick only exists in the context of Santana leaving, so who cares. And, quite frankly, fetishizing draft picks in baseball is dumb. 98 percent of these guys never see the light of day... especially if DM is picking pitchers.


Overall, I think we should expect the owner to spend what it takes to win. It doesn't help that DM likes to pay relief pitchers 5 million a head.

So I read today that something in Santana's medical about his elbow really scared a lot of teams off, thinking it's just a matter of time before it blows.

I think the draft pick has value, but I agree it is much lower than say an NFL draft pick. I am more in line with the argument that if you don't spend so much stupid money on RP's you can sign Santana and still be around 95-100 million.

I like the idea of spending what it takes to win, but look around baseball. Besides from a few teams (Dodges, Angels, Texas, Yankess) GM's and owner's bypass opportunities that would make their team better to save money constantly.

A lot of teams think Santana's elbow is a ticking time bomb, which is why he never got close to that huge 9-digit contract he was looking for. Someone may have been willing to gamble on a Vargas-type of deal with him, but he realized his value too late.

Along with his propensity to throw his slider, that can't be good

Rojas writes (Spanish-language) that Santana is deciding between the Jays, who have offered $14MM, and the Orioles, who have offered $13MM plus incentives.

In case anyone is wondering what Baltimore gives up if they outbid Toronto, they have already burned most of their draft on QO free agents. If they sign Santana, then the Orioles will lose a 90-something pick.

if anyone wants to watch the royals today, 3pm on mlb network.

do believe they are playing the milwaukee brewers.

And that would probably be the case even if they re-signed Santana. His career trend, year-by-year:

Below league-average
Slightly above league-average
Great
Below league-average
League average
Above-average
Well below-average
Great
??? (2014)

I've said it before... will not surprise me at all if Vargas has a lower ERA in 2014 than Santana does in 2014. Especially if Ervin ends up in a homer haven like Toronto or Baltimore.

James Shields has pitched 200+ innings for seven consecutive seasons and shows no signs of slowing down. They're basically the same age. Shields is a much better bet to continue being effective into his mid-to-late 30s than Santana, especially considering Shields already has an effective changeup, which usually ages better than hard-biting sliders.

Agree. Vargas has less upside but a higher floor.

I've thought this is how the No. 5 spot would end since they re-signed Chen. Chen will be available to cover Ventura's spot and ensure an extra year of control and also able to provide some relief for Duffy in spot starts once Ventura is called up.

We talked about this a few weeks ago in here... but having a plethora of picks like that is a boon and how smart front office's operate in today's MLB.

I know people pooh-pooh the idea of having those extra picks compared to present day returns, and I get that... but it's still very valuable.

A lot of great players have been nabbed in the sandwich rounds by teams that had greater financial flexibility to take a player. Sean Manaea is a great example of that.

Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus saw him pitch the other day and came away glowing. He was sitting 92-93 with command to BOTH sides of the plate and had tightened up his slurve a little bit. Was talking about how he likely is a top 30 prospect by the time they do their mid-season list (was top 75ish in BP's official 101).

Lamb starting for the Royals today.
Lead off double for Rickie Weeks

siberian -

The draft pool for those picks would have been about $6.2 million last year. Probably comes out to around $7 million altogether.

They will certainly be in position to grab this year's version of Lucas Giolito or Sean Manaea.

I'm very happy that Manaea seems to have recovered well from his injury. He would have been in the conversation for #1 overall last year if he hadn't got hurt, allowing us to snag him with our late competitive balance A sandwich pick.

Its early, but the way-too-early opinion from scouts in spring is that he looks like a terrific prospect who is healthy, should have been drafted higher, and could progress really fast.

I took shit for mentioning this on the Scout board from a few guys, but his scouting report from the Cape from a few guys was basically David Price with a better breaking ball.

One guy used exactly that language. I saw a few compare him to Price because of his height, velocity, and fastball command.

The Brewers commentators just mentioned what was already on my mind - Escobar looks beefier. Wonder if it will affect his hitting?

You took shit for dropping a scout's report on him? Talk about shooting the messenger

At the very least, his wife will stop promptly introducing herself to new neighbors, on account of not feeling like a predator anymore.

My buddy is texting me from the game and said Lamb was just destroyed. Didn't make it out of the first, didn't look like he was throwing hard. Essentially said it was painful to watch. Just one game, but pretty quickly douses the excitement over his "supposed" uptick in velocity reported just a few days ago.

Wil Myers was a 1st round talent who we money-whipped to sign. If we take Santana's comp pick and throw big money at it, anything is possible but for the most part picks outside of the 1st round are fairly worthless.

Yeah, Lamb looked pretty bad. I won't jump to conclusions, though; maybe he was instructed to lay off a bit? We'll see how he performs in actual competition after the minor league season starts.

That board harbors a weird antagonism toward Chiefs' fans.

I couldn't disagree more. In his GOOD years Santana is one step below what Shields is EVERY year.

It's a moot point. Dayton has made it clear that he's NOT signing Santana and he's NOT extending Shields, so we might as well talk about Ventura and Duffy.

Ha. Good one.

Damn it. You got in before I fixed the typo.

Anybody got a pic of escobar to confirm the bulk? Lew?

Yeah, I'm not gonna draw any conclusions unless he struggles in the minors. He may have been just working on a couple pitches for all we know. I'm unhappy when a position player looks bad in spring, but you really have to ignore pitchers who aren't fighting for a roster spot.

Gotcha. We don't have the money to give long term deals to these guys. I think Meche will likely be the only big contract DM ever gives to a starter on the open market.

I'm a lot angrier and more aggressive in that board. Chiefsplanet is my internet posting home, but oddly I feel like I'm in enemy territory sometimes on that other board.

You're acting like Ervin Santana is Zack Greinke. He's not. He could EASILY revert back to his 2012 form: 9 wins, 13 losses and an ERA over 5.

It would be smarter to give it to Ventura since Duffy is going to be on an innings limit this year.