Originally Posted by Hammock Parties (Post 18042486)

never seen an OT with a face this lean

is he on ozempic?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A message from the man himself ��️ <a href="https://t.co/MzVeBlApEk">pic.twitter.com/MzVeBlApEk</a></p>&mdash; Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href="https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1915631354512912622?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 18042541)

A couple of comments about those injury stats.

First, statistics on "returned to play" are not definitive. Different internet sites show different numbers, but in general roster retention from year to year is about 70 percent or less. I'm being conservative here since most sites show it lower. So if 70 percent of players come back that means that ANY group of 17 players will have 5 who don't return to play the following year. So that means your baseline is that 12 of the 17 return to play. If the post-injury guys come back at a 6 of 17 rate, that's a 50 percent return from injury. Not ideal, of course, but a lot better than 20 or 30 percent.

Second, the 20 to 30 percent figures are from the instant of injury. So when a guy is down on the ground, you can point at him and say, "He's got a 20 percent chance of coming back." From that point on, your knowledge gets better. Two years later, you can point at the same guy and confidently say with 100 percent certainty that he came back or he didn't. So during that two year period, your likelihood of guessing correctly gets constantly better, because you're moving down a timeline from being unsure to being sure. Since Mr. Simmons is X months down the timeline from injury, the odds of guessing his likelihood of returning are a lot better than 20 percent.

Put another way, let's say that we're firing ten simultaneous arrows at a target 100 yards away, and we have a 20 percent chance of hitting the bullseye when we fire each one. Two of them will hit and eight of them will miss.

Now imagine that we can freeze time when those arrows are 25 yards from our bow. We can look at the ten arrows and pretty confidently pick some that are clearly off target, and weed them out. Now we let them move another 25 yards and we do it again. We weed out more arrows that are off target and keep watching the ones that look close. We do it again 25 yards later and we can pretty confidently pick the two arrows that are going to hit the bullseye.

We're not evaluating Mr. Simmons at the moment that his arrow was fired. We're evaluating him well down range, which means we're better able to predict if he's on target or off.

This is going to be a big win for us. The Chiefs organization is competent and well run. I don't care if teams like the Chargers or Bears make a different decision, because they're usually going to be wrong.

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 18042150)

Not a single ****ing brain cell in my body can support this pick right now. Not one. Absolutely ****ing mind boggling. I can't express how much I hate it.

I've seen a lot of shitty picks from this franchise in the past but this one has the potential to be among the top 5 absolute worst ever at an absolutely critical juncture.

They need to pray to baby Jesus that he defies all odds, and those odds are horrendous.

Originally Posted by kccrow (Post 18042559)

They absolutely do define RTP in the study.

We shall see what happens. My trust level on this pick is 0%. How's that statistic. :D

Originally Posted by Rain Man (Post 18042541)

A couple of comments about those injury stats.

First, statistics on "returned to play" are not definitive. Different internet sites show different numbers, but in general roster retention from year to year is about 70 percent or less. I'm being conservative here since most sites show it lower. So if 70 percent of players come back that means that ANY group of 17 players will have 5 who don't return to play the following year. So that means your baseline is that 12 of the 17 return to play. If the post-injury guys come back at a 6 of 17 rate, that's a 50 percent return from injury. Not ideal, of course, but a lot better than 20 or 30 percent.

Second, the 20 to 30 percent figures are from the instant of injury. So when a guy is down on the ground, you can point at him and say, "He's got a 20 percent chance of coming back." From that point on, your knowledge gets better. Two years later, you can point at the same guy and confidently say with 100 percent certainty that he came back or he didn't. So during that two year period, your likelihood of guessing correctly gets constantly better, because you're moving down a timeline from being unsure to being sure. Since Mr. Simmons is X months down the timeline from injury, the odds of guessing his likelihood of returning are a lot better than 20 percent.

Put another way, let's say that we're firing ten simultaneous arrows at a target 100 yards away, and we have a 20 percent chance of hitting the bullseye when we fire each one. Two of them will hit and eight of them will miss.

Now imagine that we can freeze time when those arrows are 25 yards from our bow. We can look at the ten arrows and pretty confidently pick some that are clearly off target, and weed them out. Now we let them move another 25 yards and we do it again. We weed out more arrows that are off target and keep watching the ones that look close. We do it again 25 yards later and we can pretty confidently pick the two arrows that are going to hit the bullseye.

We're not evaluating Mr. Simmons at the moment that his arrow was fired. We're evaluating him well down range, which means we're better able to predict if he's on target or off.

This is going to be a big win for us. The Chiefs organization is competent and well run. I don't care if teams like the Chargers or Bears make a different decision, because they're usually going to be wrong.

Originally Posted by Yo Murphy. (Post 18042567)

He'll go down as the best tackle in Chiefs history ahead of Willie Roaf and John Alt. Bookmark this.

Originally Posted by kcfan75 (Post 18042566)

I'm just wondering, but do your stats compare a 34-year-old on his third contract and how he recovered from it compared to a 22-year-old out of college who is basically looking to make it?

Technically, this guy isn't even an adult until 3 more years. It's easier to recover the younger you are.

Originally Posted by BossChief (Post 18042573)

Here’s some optimism to counterbalance the hand-wringing over Josh Simmons’ patella injury! The doomsayers act like it’s a career-ender, but let’s get real: Correll Buckhalter tore his patellar tendon in 2004, worked with trainer Rick Burkholder—yes, that one- and came back to torch defenses with 5.0, 4.9, and 5.3 yards per carry from 2006-2008. Simmons, a 21-year-old freak, is already squatting 225 pounds six months post-surgery and got the green light for a mid-April pro day. With Burkholder’s Midas touch (remember Mahomes’ three-week patella comeback in 2019?) and cutting-edge rehab, Simmons is storming toward training camp, ready to claim his throne as an elite left tackle.

Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 18042571)

Yeah I'm curious about the age of these other players that had this injury.

One thing that worries me is that no other team thought it'd be worth the risk to try and take him in the 1st round. I'm sure multiple teams looked him over and KC was the only one that thought he would get back to previous form?

It is really concerning because of the guys we could have drafted. There were several players that fell that would have been great additions. I wanted Burden so damn bad, too.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho (Post 18042549)

I’d have more confidence in a medical evaluation here if they were able to test strength and explosion in the leg.

If him squatting 225 pounds is being touted by his PR team yesterday as positive sign of recovery, I have hard time believing they ran him through tests that would show if the tendon functions as well as it did before the injury. Im not a doctor or PT, but the PhD PT I know told me that’s the true test of the repair - not just is the tendon whole/did it work/is the joint clean, but can the tendon do as much as before - and that the answer has always been that it is less than it was.

I did knock out some 225-lb one-leg squats at the gym today, though, in Simmons honor.