KC_Connection |
03-25-2022 11:09 PM |
For the second time in the Self era, KU will play a double digit seed in the NCAA Tournament E8. It didn't end well the first time and unfortunately for us, Miami is significantly better than the VCU team that ended the Morris brothers' road in 2011.
The Hurricanes are one of the best offensive teams in the country (18th in adjusted offensive efficiency) with exceptional shooters all over the floor (top 30 in both effective FG% and 2PT FG%) and do not turn the ball over whatsoever (just 6th at turnover rate). They value the ball and regularly get good shots each and every possession. This is problematic in two ways for KU: it means that Miami is a very efficient offensive team to deal with and it means that Miami limits their opponents' transition opportunities (which is especially important against a team in KU that excels in that regard better than just about any in the tournament).
Miami is also dangerous due to their 5-out lineup construction (think a lesser Villanova). They play a 6'10 big (Sam Waardenburg) for the majority of the game who is the best shooter on the team (shooting 42% from 3PT on 95 shots). They spread teams out and create space for their shooters in this regard, making it especially hard on traditional, slow-footed bigs like McCormack to get out and cover them. This is a team that Self may very well have to adjust his own lineup to deal with, but it may not be quite as simple as playing Wilson at the 5 (because of Waardenburg's size advantage and ability to also score down low--shooting 63% on 2s).
While Miami is not known for their defense, it is notable that they are 9th in the country at steal rate. They force turnovers which allows them to get their own transition game going. KU will have to limit their own turnovers if they hope to get through this one.
Taking all of this into account, this matchup is most certainly not a favorable one and we haven't even gotten into the Charlie Moore revenge factor. While KU certainly has the talent to overcome these deficiencies, they're going to need a mammoth effort in this one. Better be ready.
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