Posted on Sat, May. 01, 2010
A Big-12 breakup could hurt KU and K-State the most
By SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star
Dan Beebe is on the phone, and the Big 12 commissioner wants to focus on his league’s successes. He has a lot to talk about. More BCS title games than any other conference, the RPI’s top-rated men’s basketball league, two teams in the women’s Final Four, on and on he can go.
His league is only 14 years old, but very much a part of the nation’s power structure in college sports, except in the one area that means the most: money.
The more you hear the more you see a rapidly approaching doomsday for the Big 12 that could hit Kansas and Kansas State the hardest, forever changing the face of Kansas City’s sports scene in the process.
Informed speculation continues to place Missouri and Nebraska in the Big Ten for bigger checks, and Colorado catching the Pac-10’s eye. Nobody with the Big 12 wants to talk about this on the record, but Beebe admits that his conference is falling more and more behind other leagues financially and could soon be at a giant disadvantage competitively.
“If it stays where it is?” Beebe says. “Yeah, of course.”
Beebe has called his league’s upcoming television negotiations “the most important matter I’ve dealt with,” but some wonder if it’s already too late.
Two separate reports put Missouri and Nebraska in the Big Ten last week, and while conversations between The Star and officials at both schools late last week disproved the reports, there is obviously movement behind the scenes.
At the moment, Missouri has leverage and the best immediate future of Kansas City’s three local Big 12 schools.
If invited, Mizzou could join the Big Ten and accept some $10 million more than it currently gets from the Big 12, as well as join a better academic conference. Or, perhaps, they could flip the Big Ten’s interest into a better situation in the Big 12.
The future is much more tenuous for Kansas and Kansas State, which could be dealing with predicaments far worse than a ticket scandal or secret buyout for a failed football coach.
At this point, KU and K-State are among the Big 12 schools that appear headed for either a bad situation or a worse one. This is the next break between college sports’ strong and weak, and KU and K-State may find themselves on the wrong side of the fault line.
“You can drive yourself nuts trying to figure out exactly how it’s going to work,” says K-State athletic director John Currie. “But this is another moment in time there is going to be changes nationally.”
Follow the steps. If Missouri leaves, the Big 12 could likely remain viable with eleven teams or by adding TCU. If Missouri and either Nebraska or Colorado leave, it becomes more difficult and if all three are gone then its hard to see the Big 12 continuing to exist in any meaningful form.
Texas is the driving force here. If Texas is OK with whatever is left of the Big 12, the conference can probably keep going. But that’s not likely if the Big 12 is down to scraps, and if Texas bolts for the SEC or Pac-10, then KU and K-State are scrambling to save their own existence on the national scene.
Both Kansas schools have strong athletic programs and loyal fan bases, but in the new world of college athletics would be left in the cold because of geography and the state’s relatively small population.
The worst-case is still several steps away for KU and K-State, but now’s not a bad time to begin thinking and talking about it. Barring drastic measures by legislature, both schools would be knocked out of so-called power conferences. Kansas could become the test-case of a school trying to fund its athletic department primarily on men’s basketball.
This does more than put extra burden on KU and K-State. It potentially changes the complexion of Kansas City’s sports scene. Right now, our sports interests lean heavy on colleges. We’re locked in to get either the Big 12 football or basketball championship each year, remain in the rotation for NCAA basketball tournament games, and like to consider ourselves a national player in college sports.
So what happens if Missouri moves to the Big Ten, and the athletic programs at KU and K-State fall behind financially?
“It’s a little spooky,” says Max Urick, the former K-State athletic director.
Officials in and around the Big 12 continue to push their conference’s victories, pointing out that any financial disadvantage hasn’t shown up competitively yet.
That’s true, but the financial disadvantage is relatively new and could take time to show up on the football field or basketball court, driving the same kind of small-money, big-money split that we see in major league baseball.
If the worst ends up happening, revisionist history will blame the Big 12’s downfall on having a significantly smaller market share than the Big Ten and SEC, and perhaps the league’s decision not to start its own television network — like the Big Ten’s, which is driving its increasing revenue.
The Big Ten is credited by insiders as being more forward-thinking with its network, and blessed with a stronger cooperation among its members. Missouri officials have publicly expressed frustration with the conference’s bowl selection system, for instance, and most of the schools in the north feel Texas wields an unfair amount of power.
Which makes one scenario laid out by a college sports official even more interesting: Texas’ selfishness and power could be the one thing to keep the Big 12 together.
After all, other leagues are unlikely to grant Texas the kind of sweetheart deal it currently gets in the Big 12. So if it remains in Texas’ best self-interest to stay with the Big 12, its brand power could keep the conference together.
Crazy thought, right? The Big 12 could either be broken or saved by Texas, following its own interests either way.
To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send e-mail to smellinger@kcstar.com or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com.
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