It's just not. There aren't "so many good players at the end of the first every year".

There are some. Sure.

So many? Nah.

I find it odd that on one hand you say 'is there any real difference between 29 and 45' and then on the other say 'well we shouldn't expect to have a high success rate on those middle round picks...'

If your central thesis is correct - that late 1sts aren't that much more valuable than 2nds, then wouldn't the answer be trading BACK?

Unless you think that the chances of success increase exponentially at around 20 and before, then getting 'more darts' (to use your own analogy) is substantially more valuable than moving closer to the dart board.

And frankly that's what the math seems to suggest as well.

A cheap trade-up for a specific target would be fine. Alternatively, they should be looking to get MORE picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, not trade them away.

That 25 point jump from 32 to 33 seems pretty wild no?

Oh, I'm 100% on board with trading back for picks.

The problem is, who are people gonna wanna trade up for?

In the end, it comes down to your trust for your scouting.

Not really.

I can't speak directly to how they got it, but I've always said that the 'well it's really just a 2nd round pick' crowd is kinda stupid.

It isn't a 2nd round pick. It's a first round pick. A late first, yes. But it's a first round pick. And folks that try to hand-waive that fact make very little sense to me.

I think there IS some white noise that may drive that a little bit though. 33 is typically going to a bad situation on a bad team. It's also likely a team looking at really high variance players; boom/bust types that will often bust. Whereas that pick at the back of 1 is either made by a very good team looking for a lower variance contributor OR a team that's traded into the round for a very specific target that has slid.

In either event, I think the results are about what I'd expect - a 1st round pick does have more value than a 2nd rounder. And by a not insignificant amount. But ultimately I think it really shows that the tops of these rounds aren't as valuable as we thought and in many ways the 2nd and 3rd rounds are where you can REALLY turn a draft into a mammoth haul.

The answer is "nobody".

Unless it's just a handful of spots, the price simply isn't worth it.

But that would speak to the team specificity of the actual draft pick. Whoever the Chiefs pick or the Packers pick etc are more likely to be successful because of who they are actually picked by.

From an actual player picked standpoint, the 32 pick isn't different than 33. Circumstances matter more.

If QB's fell and or there is someone willing to come up for a player, do it. Every time.

Sure - there's some static in the analysis without question. There always will be.

The idea being that the law of large numbers would help to cancel some of that out.

You can't get a perfect answer, but I think over a large enough sample size you can get some meaningful data. And I think the data sure suggests that yes, 1st round picks are more valuable than 2nd rounders. But that they are perhaps not as much more valuable as sometimes suggested. Additionally, it really suggests (quite loudly, in fact) that 2nd and 3rd round picks are much more valuable than conventionally understood.

I think what some of us are guilty of, myself included, is taking our 'franchise QB or bust' mindset and carrying it forward. When it comes to the QB position, 2nd and 3rd is a wasteland. And we hammered that point so hard for so long that 2nd and 3rd round picks just became afterthoughts to us. But in actuality, when it comes to every OTHER position on the board, they're not substantially less likely to hit than 1st rounders are. At least in relation to other picks that could be taken.

I suppose what you could do to counter that is say "well wait a minute, a late 3rd rounder at 111 points is half as likely to be successful as a late 1st at 220..."

And then the math starts to check out a bit. But if you can take that late 1st and then turn it into a mid-2nd and a mid 3rd then do some combined probability work, you're well ahead w/ the latter scenario.

But then I just get crosseyed again and start praying for the draft to hurry up and get here.

Like I said - it's all just jerking off until the picks are actually up and you see who's available.

Tee Higgins
Jonathan Taylor
Jayson Oweh
Jevon Holland
Elijah Moore
Greg Rousseau
Antoine Winfield
Patrick Queen
Xavier McKinney
Kyle Dugger
Chase Claypool
Jaylon Johnson
Asante Samuel Jr
Azeez Ojulari

That’s the last 2 years of guys in that 2nd wave of “2nd rd prospects” that could be taken at the end of the first.

You wouldn’t take any of these guys?

I went back and looked at the last mock before the draft and this is what he had.

2nd - Jamin Davis, LB
3rd - He traded down and took Dayo Odeyingbo, DE.
3rd - Tommy Tremble, TE
4th - Jaelon Darden, WR

So he had positions right but was nowhere close on the type of player in that position that the Chiefs were looking at.

Works for me.

I have no issue with the positions he took. I simply don't like some of the players he took.

What was his mock?

Exactly. I'm just saying that I think he knows the positions that the Chiefs are looking into...but not specific players.

Plus he used the PFF Mock Draft tool to do his mock. It's not like he's fleshing out where he thinks guys are going. It would basically be like us writing a long article about one of our mock drafts.

Pointless.

I’m really warming up to this plan. Even the small trade up to 21 to 23 range to get Karliftis. And then Ojabo with the 29th or 30th pick that is left over. Clark is going to play. Let Ojabo get healthy and work into the lineup in the last half of the season. I like it a lot.

Sure.

Now do the rest of the guys taken in those spots.

I'd love some of those guys. Taken in the 2nd round.

I’m just sick of the dog shit we’ve had at EDGE.

Double dip early and get it over with, just like the OL last year.

I think they've also painted themselves into a corner where they really need to hammer this draft pretty hard from a roster standpoint.

Pick 21 (Trade up - 29 and 94): Jameson Williams
Pick 30: Boye Mafe, DE
Pick 50: Drake Jackson, DE
Pick 62: Martin Emerson, CB
Pick 93: Greg Dulcich, TE
Pick 121: Cordale Flott, LSU


I mean in my eyes he set picks 30-62 on fire. All that draft capital and he took 2 guys with scheme and/or productivity limitations as well as a reach at CB. And yeah, he appears to have forgotten about our extra 4th rounder (which is where you should get someone like Emerson).

It's not a very good draft, IMO. But I don't mind the idea of trading up for Williams then going DE, DE, CB and TE.

I think you pretty much have to. Probably even sign some other vets after the draft.

21. Traded a first and third to move up for Jameson Williams, WR.
30. Boye Mafe, DE
50. Drake Jackson, DE
62. Martin Emerson, CB
93. Greg Dulcich, TE
121. Cordale Flott, CB
229. Aaron Hansford, LB
233. Logan Bruss, OT

Still not sure what he did with our other 4th round pick because he doesn't include it in the trade up.

Same place I've been since the season ended, man.

I'm DONE with this trash ****ing DL. Take the Buffalo approach, throw a TON of draft capital at the situation and let it sort itself out.

We have nothing on that DL. Worse, we have no real long-term assets on there either. I mean Kaindoh is the nearest we have to a projectable asset on the entire DL and that's just a ROUGH spot to find yourself.

Don't get me wrong. I LOVE the fact that Nate went DE early twice. It's just the guys that he took.

I'd much rather take Cameron Thomas and Sam Williams....instead of Mafe and Jackson.

Man, if a QB poor team wants to trade back up into the late first to take one so they have that 5th year flexibility, I'd be all about that.

I really think that the 2nd round is where all the value is.

**** it! move around, trade picks, and get ALL 8 PICKS into that 2nd round!

Haha.

Kidding.

Kind of.

I’m fine with Mafe if they pair him with Williams or Thomas at 50.

Jackson after going Mafe there is kind of yuck though.

And I’d much rather go DT at 62 than CB if Emerson is the best we can do.

I think Nate just gets to each pick in his mock draft and looks around....

"They really need a CB. Who's the best here?'

Finds one and then picks one. Nate has admitted that he's not well versed on draft prospects every year.

Yup - easily.

And with Nnadi/Jones back this year, you can probably pass on the early DT and maybe someone like Hall (or even Jones) slides to the 3rd. Some of those space-eater types really start falling down draft boards when the bullets start flying.

Williams, Thomas, Williams would be an easy W for me. Then if Jones is there at 62, great. If not I would consider Hall there (he does fit what we do pretty well). Obviously I'd be on board with Dulcich in the third.

Then look at CB w/ the 4th as I think there are some nice value plays likely to be there. McCollum, Taylor-Britt, Armour-Davis, Alontae Taylor, Mario Goodrich; one of those guys will fall from that group. Marcus Jones has size issues that could push him but he'd be a nice slot replacement if you're committed to Fenton out wide. And double dip at CB or shift to S w/ the other 4th.

And as is my custom, I refuse to care about 7th round picks or comment on them in any way. Draft my dog and a nun for all I care.

I've done that a few times on the mock simulators.

I always go 1 or 2 trades too far and end up drafting my first guy at like 47 with 2 or 3 of my favorite targets going between 35 and 46.

Aggravating as hell.

I like Nate a lot, but his reliance on Pro Football Focus for his mock drafts make them pretty bad.

Boye Mafe is a not a good fit for KC's currrent scheme. He's a 34 OLB/2-point stance guy. I like that Drake Jackson is young and has a frame and think that's more of a long-term fit than Mafe.

Re: a scenario where the Patriots work the Chiefs and Packers against each other if a WR the Packers want is on the board... cool. Let them do that. Let the Packers overpay.

And then call the Patriots and get 22 from them and take the DE you want.

I just don't see trading up for a WR in this group unless Olave is in a range they can get to.

I'm good with all of that. I just can't get behind trading up for Williams in the first. I just can't.

If I look at our biggest needs right now....WR is not even top 2. DE and CB are bigger needs and trading up 8 spots to take Williams is a waste of a pick IMO.

I would much rather give up more....and get up high enough to take Jermaine Johnson.

:Lin:

If you trade up for Williams you're not trading up for a WR - you're trading up for Jameson Williams.

You don't execute that trade up because you're worried about not getting the 3rd or 4th best WR prospect in the draft. You don't do it because for someone like Olave, for instance. Because that would be need based.

You do it because you think Jameson Williams is the BEST WR in this draft over a meaningful timeline and has that sort of ability to be a legitimate #1, 1,400 yard, game-breaking WR here. You're not considering need at all at that point - you're just going and getting a blue-chip player at 21.

And IF you believe that, I'm absolutely fine with it, especially at that cost. But you can't do it because of the Breeland Speaks thing where you're worried that there's only one guy left in your tier so you need to go up and get him before that tier gets cleaned out.

You only do it if he's the ONLY guy that was ever in that tier to begin with, IMO.

Thats the positions they've gotta hit. Now we don't like the players.

You unsufferable assholes.

I’m not a huge fan because of the age, but I just don’t agree that Mafe can’t put his hand in the dirt. He did it at the Senior Bowl and looked great. He meets almost all of the Spags DE requirements aside from his arms being a little shorter than the threshold.

He’s not Ebiketie who is a 3-4 OLB only.

Found it - he used it with our comp pick from Poles to move up to 93 and draft Dulcich.

So n/m - he didn't misplace anything.

You yourself said it - they have to HIT.

You don't want to take guys that don't fit the scheme.

Ebiketie getting mocked to the Chiefs is almost as inexplicable to me as Ridder getting mocked to the Chiefs.

So of course it's going to happen.

I just cannot make sense of it at all.

I was going to say, we don't have the 93rd pick right now...

It comes down to their preference on who they think fit schematically. If they're taking guys who they think fit the best at the positions we like, I'm good with it.

They've got enough good will built up there.

I get it.

I just don't see Jameson Williams as that blue chip player. I can't wait until the draft is here and he goes top 15 so I don't have to spend the entire night dreading the Chiefs trading up for him.

You're talking about something different now. Are we talking about OUR opinions or theirs?

:toast:

He doesn’t meet the height or weight requirements for a Spags DE, so I don’t think we have to worry about that one at all.

Like I said in the Kiper thread - I'm fine if they do it, fine if they don't.

If they DO make that move, I think it's because they see him as a potential superstar and I'll defer to them on that one. I think they'll be doing it with the right mindset as I think Vatch has learned some painful lessons with stuff like Speaks and Clark.

At that point my only real concern would be the cost of the move. I don't want to be giving up these 2nds and DAMN sure have no interest in packaging the 1sts.

I'm sure you'll hate my idea of trading that 2023 1st round pick to move up for Jermaine Johnson then.

Nah, I'm just making fun of you guys not liking the guys they pick. Just some draft forum fun!.

In fact I do hate that idea. I hate that idea more than drafting Mafe or Ebiketie at 30.

Giving up essentially the same package we gave up to get Mahomes so that we can take the 3rd best DE in the draft and maybe the 5th best DL is...well it's something, I guess.

But I let it slide.

I'd be somewhat concerned that he'd be ready to go for next season and slightly concerned he might not ever recover fully. Some guys don't.

But yes, my primary concern would be the cost. A 3rd and/or 4th? Fine, I don't like it but I can live with it.

A 2nd or 1st? No ****ing way.

You're right. I do hate it. :D

Hey...I'm pretty sure I had you on board yesterday. Don't switch now!

Not to keep bashing Nate Taylor, but if you're trading up to 21, here's how I run it:

1.21 - George Karlaftis
1.30 - Daxton Hill (now don't have to worry about corner or safety as a priority)
2.50 - John Metchie III (or whatever WR you like. Watson. Skyy Moore. Tolbert. Etc.)
2.62 - Sam Williams
3.103 - Jeremy Ruckert or Greg Dulcich or Ottom. There will be a good TE option here.
4.121 - Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati (now a "wow" athlete for a CB but a good fit for KC)
4.135 - Braxton Jones or Max Mitchell or similar OT

7ths - lotto pick stabs. Though if Tre Turner is around down there, that's a guy I'd like them to snag.

Maybe I'm just in the minority that doesn't see WR as this gigantic need that requires a trade up in the 1st round.

You're not alone. I'm with you.

I actually really like that draft. I’m higher on Drake Jackson than a lot of folks tho

Juju
MVS
Hardman

Clark
Danna
Kaindoh

They both aren't great but one is definitely lacking in talent more than the other one.

Jackson and Mafe are too similar.

Pair one of those guys with Karlaftis, Thomas, or Williams and I’m fine with it.

I'd rather have Jackson in the 2nd than Mafe in the first.

I'd rather have neither one....and just take Sam Williams at 30.

At some point we just have to accept that Williams is a guy that isn’t going in the 1st round and might not even go top 50.

He’s getting absolutely no buzz in that range.

Pick your guy but I like the plan that he has bc goddamn do our DE’s need juice. We need some damn speed and talent there in the absolute worst way. You’ve got some inside with Jones and Wharton but man we’ve got Kaindoh and a bunch of shit there at DE.

That’s gonna be needed too for QB’s like Allen, Russ, Herbert and Watson. We aren’t playing statue Brady anymore

I’m really starting to think there’s an outside chance we could get him at 62. Very confident we can get him at 50

Nobody is complaining about the fact that he took two DEs in the first three picks. They're just complaining about WHO he picked.

Mafe and Jackson will likely play the same position. I get wanting to throw numbers at the entire line but spending multiple similar picks on the same exact position doesn't seem prudent. Get complimentary skillsets instead.

I don’t mind that at all. Obviously I’m a Jameson Williams homer but I think this DE class is very sneaky good and Dulcich is one of those quality TE’s IMO.

Just don’t like that we didn’t get a safety in that mock

The nice thing about safety is that it can be a real plug and play position. Thornhill was IMMEDIATELY an impact player as a rookie.

It's not uncommon at all to see 2nd day safeties make a big difference especially when paired with a capable veteran.

Justin Reid qualifies at this point in his career. So in the event you can't get Thornhill extended (or elect not to), you can probably target the position on the 2nd day next year and get a guy that can immediately play.

So it's not terribly vital for me that we target one high this year at all. In fact, in most ways it turned out hugely counter-productive as the draft went on.

I really dislike the idea of a first round safety. It just completely ignores that we have a good safety duo already in Reid and Thornhill.

Let's go get em boys:
1-14 (f/BAL) Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State (1-29, 2-50, 2023 5th)
1-21 (f/NE) Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia (1-30, 3-94, 4-121)
2-62 George Pickens, WR, Georgia
3-103 Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee
4-135 Danny Gray, WR, SMU
6-186 (f/CHI) Daniel Bellinger, TE, San Diego State (7-233, 7-243, 7-259)
7-251 Shermari Jones, RB, Coastal Carolina

Unless you can get a guy like Pitre or Hill that can play slot CB AND safety and be on the field with Thornhill and Reid, all 3 together.

You give me Calvin Austin at 103 and I'll sign off on this insanity. Turn Pickens at 62 into Sam Williams and I think I'll just go ahead and wholeheartedly endorse it.

Or just find a slot corner 3 rounds later.

It's just not a priority of mine.

I'm not saying I'd necessarily target them but they do seem to be solid value and continuously available at our slot...

They're solid value because....well frankly we overvalue them. It's also why they're 'continuously available' to us. Because they SHOULDN'T be coming off the board before we pick.

These are the same conversations we had in 2019 when Juan Thornhill was a 1st round value. And Marquise Blair and Nasi Adderley and Taylor Rapp.

I did it last year with Grant Delpit.

And in the most egregious of cases you see someone like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson who we were talking ourselves into 'with what's really just a 2nd round pick anyway' going all the way to the 4th round.

They're safeties, man. They're the relief pitchers of the NFL. These guys are guys who couldn't hack it as CBs so they got moved to S and find a role.

We just overvalue them here in a big way, IMO.

Because Spags does as well.

Safety

The running back of the defense?

We've used a 2nd round pick and one halfway decent contract on the position since he's been here.

Spags uses them - but he also throws the Dan Sorensen's of the world at the spot.

I think Spags finds them to be important, yes. I also think he feels they can be built rather than bought. I don't think he sees a 'big ticket' need there.

2-down linebacker is probably the RB of the defense.

I'd say safety is probably the TE of the defense. If you have a GREAT one, you're in fantastic shape. But the vast majority of them just have to not suck.

And you're no more likely to find a great one at the top of the draft than the middle of it.

As DJ said, a 2-down LB is the RB of the defense. Safeties are much more valuable. More like the center of your defense or in some cases, QB.

I can agree with this.

I don't think you're paying attention to how the Chiefs use them, though. In a conventional defense, you may well be right. Simple, straightforward skillset usage.

That's not what Spagnuolo does. Our Safeties have to be part linebacker, part traditional strong safety, part free safety, part slot corner. And they need to do any of those things while showing something else on any snap. It's a big part of the defense.

Sam Williams is going to be our “Justin Houston” or “Trey Smith” this year. A guy we get a couple rounds (or more) higher than his talent suggests he goes.

His issue in college is going to have him off many teams boards completely and with this being such a deep class, he’s going to fall quite a bit. I’d love him anywhere after pick 50 and we might be able to get him with 94 or later.

Pickens, to me, has #1 upside if he can just manage to be healthy. Austin on the other hand, he's a guy I can't ever see becoming more than a functional slot on par with Mecole Hardman. I'd be okay with it but I'd rather make that stab for a guy that I think could replace JuJu next year rather than worrying so much about replacing Mecole.

Now, going with Sam Williams at 62 is something I'd definitely consider but that really does force a worse WR pick at 103. It's almost a pick your poison situation. If I'm going for Johnson high, then I'm not as high on going with Williams later because I see both more as WDEs. I'd probably look harder at Cam Thomas if he's there in that situation or a guy like Paschal in the 3rd or Thomas or Clemons in the 4th.

Going with your scenario also changes the approach at CB. I think this team needs to get a CB and I'd like one that could potentially play significant snaps early on. I think that means finding one before the end of day 2. If it's not a CB, I'd like to think it's a FS type that can play the slot. That's one reason I mocked Pitre in my full round 1 option.

I think a Williams/Johnson duo gives you two largely interchangeable guys where you're not really playing a 'shade' w/ an SDE or WDE type DE, but rather two guys that are playing straight 7/9 techniques. And both of those dudes can be that kind of player and provide complementary bookends.