Better record in just the last 2 games.

Yeah I edited my post.
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They're 11-3 right now.

We're 10-4.

They'll have to lose one.

I know. I thought he was talking about better season record overall which we don't need.

Chiefs have to hope they win out and the Raiders lose one, or they're traveling to Houston or Pittsburgh. If they go to Houston they'll have a decent chance to win and then go to New England. If they go to Pittsburgh they're likely toast.

FYP

:deevee:

Playing at Arrowhead doesn't seem to be an advantage for this team. You can argue they are a better road team. The bye week to get healthy is what's most important.

You are ignoring the fact that Tennessee is hittingting their peak and Houston just benched their QB. Yes, they are part of the same division...

The bye week also gives you one less chance to lose.

It seems to me like the damage done by losing the 2 seed is...

1. 2 chances now to get eliminated instead of one.
2. Converted one home game into two road games.
3. Losing a bye week for injury purposes (which I think is notably less important than the first two things).

I'm not sure the level of competition changes that much moving from 2 to 5, but there's now twice as much of it.

Get the 5 seed. Both us and the 6 seed win the WC game then we go smash the Faid again.

Would probably get destroyed in NE but beating Oakland 3 times would be worth it.

Oakland has had shit-ton of help from the refs...they arent that great of a team. If KC was promising the owners $200 million in free tax payer money...they would be getting games steered for them too. That DAT call would have been a TD...I'm 100% certain.

The NFL is hell-bent on a Oakland/Patriot AFCC...Indy, even with Luck, is going to be battling the refs.

Could very well happen...

Pittsburgh or NE would probably hand us our asses even at Arrowhead but the Raiders would get another beat down.

NYT Playoff Simulator is up for 2016
 

I've run the scenarios I believe will happen & here's how I think it ends up:

1. New England Patriots
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Houston Texans
5. Oakland Raiders
6. Miami Dolphins




Bye: Pats & Chiefs

WC:
Miami @ Pittsburgh
Oakland @ Houston


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The moon landing was actually filmed in a hollywood studio.. we been duped

And we win it all in the end, right?? :D

That's what we are all hoping for, right? Right?

As the winning streak on the road against Oakland, Denver, and Atlanta showed we can play with the best of them in their house.

As the losses to Tampa and Tennessee showed we can lose at home against mediocre teams.

I think showing that we can beat good teams with hot offenses or defenses provides everything we need to know about what the Chiefs can do. I still believe that Andy Reid is the biggest problem with the team realizing the championship right now, with Alex being a very close second.

My hope is that Andy opens the offense up in the playoffs as he has done in the past. I think he will.

Here's what the AFC looks like after this week:

1. Patriots (81%) or Raiders (19%)
2. Raiders (53%) or Chiefs (28%) or Patriots (19%)
3. Steelers (100%)
4. Texans (100%)
5. Chiefs (49%) or Dolphins (23%) or Raiders (28%)
6. Dolphins (77%) or Chiefs (23%)

So basically, the scenarios are (in order of likelihood in my opinion from most to least):
1. Chiefs beat the Chargers and Raiders beat the Broncos - we get the 5 seed and travel to Houston.
2. Chiefs beat the Chargers and Broncos beat the Raiders - we get the 2 seed and have a bye.
3. Chiefs lose to the Chargers and the Dolphins lose to the Patriots - we get the 5 seed and travel to Houston.
4. Chiefs lose to the Chargers and Dolphins beat the Patriots - we get the 6 seed and travel to Pittsburgh.

Looking at the scenarios, I'm trying to figure the most beneficial for the chiefs.

I don't really see a situation where they can avoid having to play both pitt and NE.

As the 2 seed, they likely get pitt in kc in the 2nd round and as the 5 seed, if they can beat houston, would go to new england and then to pitt.

New england is sitting pretty as the 1 seed in that they will likely only have to play one of kc or pitt and at home.

Pitt is not that great on the road.

So who we posta root for then?

Dinny

Best chance is for Mia to beat NE and give Oak the #1 seed (assuming Denver lays down). Then Pitt and NE will play in the AFCDG. Miami will be gunning for the #5 seed as they wanna travel to Houston.

Root for a bye and getting pit at home instead of at pit.

I just don't see the Phins beating new england this weekend.

If we don't get a bye this would be best. Miami probably won't beat ne but they have beaten them at home before.

For the Chiefs and against the Raidas.

They are a totally different team in Pittsburgh.




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As I said going to Houston rather than to Pittsburgh could be enough motivation for Miami. Too bad it won't matter because playing @SD is easier than playing NE.

Wiggy.

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I know we have less than fun memories of bye week seasons, but to root against the bye is just nuts.

An extra week off gives us:
1) An extra week for guys to rest and heal.
2) An extra week of our next opponent to play and get banged up.
3) One less chance to lose.

I'm wondering where they figure the percentages.

The Raiders have a 53% chance of beating the Broncos in Denver with their backup QB? The Chiefs have a 28% chance of beating San Diego? I understand the Raiders need only one thing to happen & the Chiefs need two things to happen but I don't think the Raiders have a better than 50/50 chance at Denver with McGloin.




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Maybe its a 50% chance they beat Denver, and they add the 3% chance the Chiefs loose to the Chargers making it 53% chance they win the division. :shrug:

4) Reid with a bye week

It's a stats model. Injuries aren't a part of the equation.

They just look at every possible outcome for every game. They aren't figuring in which teams are better, injuries, or anything like that. Just all 32 teams and every possible combination of wins and losses. They run all of the hundreds of different outcomes, then take what percentage of those gets the outcome you are looking at (bye, 5th seed, etc.).

In other words, they see that the Chiefs need a win and the Raiders a loss for KC to win the division. It doesn't look at how likely the Chiefs are to beat SD or the Raiders to beat the Broncos, just that they need to win and the Raiders need to lose to get that outcome.

Any scenario with a bye is orders of magnitude better than having to win 3 games on the road to get to the SB. Anyone who thinks otherwise is crazy.

Doesn't Brady struggle in Miami?

The dolphins have a stout dl that usually gives them oroblems.

That's not quite true. It's based on Sagarin ratings, so its predictions are weighed based on a power rating of sorts.

In this case, the fact that Carr is injured certainly results in a slight overstatement of the likelihood of the Raiders beating the Broncos.