While your analyses are interesting, one thing they don't take into account is the personnel philosophy at the time (long-range-thinking versus mortgage-the-future thinking). Both Schottenheimer and Vermeil were benefitted in their last 27 games by a mortgage-the-future philosophy (especially Vermeil) while their predecessors had to deal with the smoldering ruins. Herm took it on both ends because after dealing with the declining talent left to him by Vermeil, he went radical-young his final year which hurt him but has ended up helping Haley.

Yeah, that's a good point. And in the only words of defense I'll ever say for Herm, he and Tom Wiggin both inherited teams whose best players were either immediately retiring or had just retired. I think that made a difference for those two as well, shifting blame from Vermeil, Cunningham, and Stram (yes, Stram), who should have been replacing those players and didn't. While Stram is obviously golden, the decline in talent his last three years was precipitous, and he had more than enough time to reload before the whole thing collapsed.

I think Stram and Vermeil (and to a lesser extent Marty) were all milking the last reserves of their key veterans at the end, and then left as the ship went down.

Yeah, I think that's a pretty normal occurrence for a coach that's had a decent run as they try to give it one last shot. The unusual situation was Herm's. He had to know that going for a complete rebuild was pretty risky for his Chiefs' coaching career (although maybe he thought he'd get 2 years instead of just 1). IMO, he and Carl really did the franchise a favor with that last act.

Herm didn't know he was a head coach till Pioli fired him. Then he said "Oh thats why I was here!"

I remembered this and thought I'd update it.

When Vermeil got the team our franchise index was at +5.43, and after some up and down seasons Dickie V. left it at +4.98. The franchise peak during his era was +9.29 at the end of Week 17 of 2003, just before...you know...Colts. The franchise low point during his era was -0.89 at the end of Week 17 of 2002 after a loss to the Raiders left us at 8-8.

Herm placed his unsteady hand at the helm with a franchise rating of 4.98. The franchise peak during his era was 7.44 at the end of Week 12 of his first season, after a win over the Broncos put us at 7-4 (recall that there was a bye week in there). Then he pointed the car south. The franchise low point during his era was an astounding -16.60 in his final game, after a loss to the Bengals put us at 2-14.

Hobo Haley then took over at -16.60 and has had a wild ride. The franchise continued its descent through Week 16 of his first year, bottoming out at -22.66 after a loss to the Bengals put us at 3-12. Then came 2010 and we began climbing. The week before the playoffs we were at -14.46 with a 10-6 record despite a loss to the Raiders that week. We are currently at -17.57 - losses in the last two weeks have dropped Todd's regime into negative territory.

Hey Rainman thanks for everything you do for the board. Between this and that simulation league you're running you are awesome!

So according to this, we're in worse shape than when Haley/Pioli took over.

LMAO

Sadly, yes. That kind of surprised me.

It seems like there are three kinds of coaches: ones that plunge into an abyss, ones that immediately go up, and ones that run more or less breakeven. So far, Todd is looking like the third type, which disappoints me since I want to see him succeed.

Surprising how fleeting the success of a playoff season is. Will we ever see 30 again. Its going to take a lot of years to get there. Oh what a QB could do here.

Update. I'm sad to say that according to this measure we are at the lowest point in franchise history, even worse than the end of the Gansz era and the ineptitude of the 1970s and 1980s. You are safe to make the claim that there has never been a worse time to be a Chiefs fan.

See the opening post for the description, and I've also included the updated graph both here and there.

JFC

I think now would be a good time to buy Chiefs Stock.
WE ARE HEADING UP BABY!

BTW impressive work. I am surprised I have never seen this.

Yeah, can't believe I've never seen this thread.

Rain Man is our very own Nate Silver. Ahhhhh

Maybe we can just declare bankruptcy and move on.

Send this to Clark and there is no way he would keep Pioli. This is the kind of analysis that an MBA would understand. Complete with graphs even!

you should post this on SOC.

RM--

Great post...I have lived through all of this, and from my perspective this analysis is exactly correct.

It's been five years since I've updated the Chiefs' franchise momentum chart. If you look back, my last update was just after the final game of the Romeo Crennel era, and according to the numbers that game had become the lowest point in Chiefs franchise history.

Well, I've got some good news. Dorsey and Reid have clawed back nearly all of the -27.09 score that marked the low-water mark of the franchise, and have brought the Chiefs back almost to break even at an index of -0.05. If not for that referee stealing the playoff game from them, the Chiefs would be handily positive right now, and they were actually in the black for the last two regular season games of 2016. That's a huge accomplishment.

Andy and Dorsey have been at the helm for four years, and this four-year stretch has shown the second-greatest four-year increase in momentum in franchise history, eclipsed only by the 1966-1969 summit of Everest. Here are the five greatest four-year increases in franchise momentum in Chiefs history.

1966-1969 / +29.08
2013-2016 / +27.05
1990-1993 / +25.95
1989-1992 / +19.72
1991-1994 / +17.98

If you add to this the natural optimism of having a top-ten pick as a quarterback, optimism appears to be the name of the game for the Chiefs right now.

Amazing! Rep!

Damn Kev, what thr hell do you do when you are not busy?

We just repeated the first four years of Marty and Carl, complete with a token playoff win over a garbage QB.

Now we begin the quest for ascendance.

And ascend we shall!

Play time with substandard QB garbages is over.
The acquisition of premium receivers can now be considered a worthy investment.
The touchdowns will flow like a grazing group of Midwest fatties crowding the chocolate fountain at Golden Corral!

ah, I remember this, really happy to see the update on it.

Chiefs stock split the instant they drafted Patrick.

Mother **** you, Herm and mother **** you, Pioli.

:clap::clap::clap:

All day long this.

Appreciate the effort.


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So the Chiefs are a sin wave? Sweet...

And by the way Rain Man, that was some clever work. Kaddooooooooooos.

this could be a very interesting analysis exercise from the fantasy football standpoint

see what correlations show up for draft position career arcs, RB lifespans, QB growth for early starters vs bench time in early careers

Hey! We're in the black!

Well done.

Latest update of the franchise stock index through the end of 2017. As you'll recall, we ended last season on the most minor of negative cumulative scores, basically breakeven after 57 years. The early season success pushed the franchise strongly into positive ground, but the midseason slump brought it almost back to zero again. The late season surge pushed it back up, and then the playoff loss to the Tennessee Triplettes knocked it back down. Right now, the cumulative franchise index stands at +1.56. Andy's squad had modest success this year with a winning record and playoff spot, gaining 1.61 points to put the franchise back into the black.

Andy remains the first coach since Marty to have a positive franchise stock value during his tenure. Only four of the thirteen coaches in Chiefs history have a positive score during their tenure: Stram, Mackovic, Schottenheimer, and (so far) Reid.

Awesome! Love the numbers crunching.

This is pretty cool if you love data, would like to see the coach, GM, and QB added into the data and chart even though it's fairly easy to spot them as is.

Here's the 2018 update of the Franchise Wellness Index.

We currently stand at a franchise index of +9.3144. We briefly surpassed that level this season after the Week 14 win over the Ravens (9.7952 index) and the Week 17 win over the Raiders (9.5342 index), and significantly surpassed it in the win over the Colts in the playoffs. (More on that in a moment.)

To put things into relative perspective, we last approached that level at the end of the regular season in 2003, when we stood at 9.2934, a week before the Indianapolis no-punt game threw us into a long-running funk.

The last time (prior to 2018) that we were above this level was after a Week 10 loss to the Raiders in the year 2000 (the Gunther era), when we stood at 9.9561. This was obviously on the way down from the Marty era so it didn't feel special and we had negative momentum. So whatever. The next week was a 21-7 loss to the 49ers and it would take us 18 years to climb back up to this level.

However, if you aren't aware of this, we were given a loss in our final game this year. After the Colts game and before we lost a Super Bowl on a coin flip, our Chiefs index topped out at a level of +12.4388. We haven't seen that level of happiness in a long time.

Going back through time to find the last moment we were above a 12.4388, we had a local high of 13.0559 in, believe it or not, 1999. Gunther's Chiefs were riding a four-game winning streak, sitting at 9-5 after a win in Pittsburgh, and we had a ten-year tailwind of Marty propping up our morale. Alas, we lost the next week to Seattle and then lost a heartbreaker to Oakland that knocked us out of a playoff spot. (I think this was the Jon Baker game.)

But things are looking good! It looks like we're happier now than at pretty much any time during the Vermeil era, and we're at around the level that Marty's teams were in 1995. Plus, we now have a franchise quarterback. Investors are bullish on the Chiefs.

Great thread.

We're really on an epic run right now, but we just started at a low point. There have been three life-altering rises in Chiefs history.

From 1960 through Super Bowl IV, the Chiefs rose 33.48 points, starting at 0 and rising to +33.48 under Hank Stram.

From 1989 through 1997, the Chiefs rose 42.4 points from Marty's arrival up to the kickoff of the vegetable oil game against the Cheaters. We went from -23.35 to +19.07

From 2013 through the present, the Chiefs have risen 36.4 points from Andy's arrival to the current moment. We went from -27.09 to our current +9.31.

So in other words, when they win it all next year, this will officially and OBJECTIVELY be the most successful era of Chiefs football ever.

My model penalizes a team heavily for losing a first-round playoff game, puts you at around breakeven for going 1-1 in the playoffs, and really rewards you for going better than 1-1.

So yes. Next year is going to be a big breakthrough.

I approve of this data-gizmo Mr. Rain Man, and have pos-repped you for your hard work in this endeavor.

Would it be possible to create and track a purely defense-oriented version of this data-model? We have a new D-Coord and system revision coming, and it might be beneficial to track our progress outside of normal NFL parameters.

So financially speaking, if I invested $1000 in the Chiefs at the beginning, how much money would I have now? :hmmm:

Was it a good investment?

$1000 less than you had before. :)

Looks like Andy has the best per game record in Chiefs history, yet somehow he sucks. With Pat he will sustain to become the most successful coach the franchise has had.

Love all of this, Rain Man. Such great work.

On the playoff side of things, what do you think about a factor built in for breaking a slump. The playoff win against the Colts this year gained us 3 points that were immediately negated the following week with a playoff loss. However, most any fan would see this postseason as a positive for the organization's direction. Each sequential playoff loss could then cause a win to be worth that much more. Something like a 0.2 increase for each previous sequential loss > 1 (since you always lose the previous playoff game if you don't win the SB).

This year's Colts win would have been worth and additional factor of 0.6 (3 X 0.2) giving the team 4.8 points for the win, and a positive 1.8 for the postseason as a whole. The playoff win in Houston in 2016 broke a 7 game postseason losing streak and would have been worth 7.2 points.

I think I kind of have something built in that proxies this. You get +1 points at the end of each year for making the playoffs and -1 for missing it. So there's that (which also tells you my mindset back in 2009 - I didn't even think about playoff winning or losing streaks).

I get your point, though, that a win after several losses would have more of a positive impact. At this point I'd lean toward just being consistent, especially since we have a run of Super Bowl wins coming our way.

And welcome - I haven't seen you in a bit.

I've been waiting to update this, so here you go.

The Chiefs franchise index currently stands at +24.6784. The last time it felt this good to be a Chiefs fan was Week 3 of the 1974 season, where the Chiefs started 2-1 following nine straight winning seasons that included a Super Bowl win, an AFL championship, and another Super Bowl appearance. It was Hank Stram's last year, and the barbarians were at the gates, so the index was on its way down from the 1960s glory years. Andy has made this the best time to be a Chiefs fan in 46 years.

Also recall that when Andy took over in 2013, the franchise momentum measure was at an all time low of -27.7736. When Andy arrived on the scene, it was literally the worst time ever to be a Chiefs fan based on this measure. And now we're the Super Bowl champions.

Time for an update.

According to this analysis, the week after the Buffalo playoff game was the best time to be a Chiefs fan in the history of the world. The index peaked that week with an all-time high score of 33.7310.

The previous high water mark of the franchise was a 22-9 win over the Buffalo Bills in the final week of the 1971 season, which gave us a playoff spot in a Christmas Day game against the Dolphins. We know how that turned out. Our index score was +33.6331. We didn't get back to that level until the Bills game last month.

Five of the ten best weeks to be a Chiefs fan have occurred under Andy Reid. The other five occurred under Hank Stram, and it was a long walk through the desert in between. So let's enjoy it.

Wow. This is really interesting to me. Well done and rep. I wonder if the formula could be changed? Should the value of each playoff win increase as you win more games? For example, each playoff game would increase slightly to the point that winning the Super Bowl could be worth 15 points? Winning the Super Bowl shouldn’t be worth the same amount as a winning a wild card game? And maybe not increase the negative of a playoff loss? Just something to consider.

The rams would be an interesting franchise to run through this algorithm. If we are looking at this like a stock, I wonder what their value would have been after the Super Bowl in 2000 bc they were really bad for a long time before that.

This is certainly subjective, so the formula could be adjusted. One thing that is a big deal is playoff success. When I put it together I decided that if you get points for each playoff win, the score rockets up for a Super Bowl win because they all stack up. So a Super Bowl win benefits a lot from the games that lead up to it.

Yeah, it would be really interesting to do this for all of the teams, and then overlay and compare. But it's more work than I want to tackle. Maybe someday when I find myself really bored. I'll tackle the AFC West teams.

Why wouldn’t it be the week after the Super Bowl win?


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Rain Man is dominating the offseason.

There would be many teams that would have had to take Chapter 13 after being in the hole for so long.

Time for an update.

I also discovered and fixed a scoring error in last year's index where I had underweighted the monumental importance of playoff games. That is now fixed.

As background, the best time to be a Chiefs fan before the Andy Reid era was 1969, when Hank Stram ruled the sidelines. The score after Super Bowl IV was 33.4825.

The low point of the franchise was the end of the 2012 season when Andy was brought aboard, at a score of -27.7736.

Talk about a turnround.

The 2020 division win over the Browns brought the score to 35.4573, topping the Stram era.

The 2021 division win over the Bills pushed us over 40 points for the first time, at 42.2041.

The Week 17 win over the Broncos pushed us to a new all-time high at 42.3905.

And then we didn't lose again. Today I am delighted to announce that the Franchise Momentum Index has surpassed 50 points for the first time ever. As of today, our score is 51.5711, making today the best time in history to be a Chiefs fan. I bet you wouldn't have guessed that.

The graph from 2019 to present is a good representation of what is happening in my pants right now.

It's kind of obvious at this point, but I updated our franchise momentum graph, and this is the best time to be a Chiefs fan by about a million miles. Our franchise momentum is almost double what it was at the peak of the Stram years.

The other interesting point is that you'll see that we dipped pretty badly in the back half of the regular season. Our franchise momentum had hit an all-time high-water mark against the Chargers in Week 7 as we brought our record to 6-1. We then played .500 ball for the rest of the regular season before carving a path of wanton destruction through the postseason. Four straight postseason wins and another Super Bowl championship spiked us up to a new all-time high, which is where we sit today.

What is the statistical correlation between the Dow Jones and Chris Jones?

I somehow missed this until now. It's so freaking great. Thank you.

We need a bar aligning the HC with the ebbs and flows

I hadn't seen this before either. I really like it.

You know what you're doing here better than I do, but I have a suggestion for a change.

First, playoff wins are a big deal, but playoff losses are still in the playoffs. Maybe a playoff loss shouldn't count as much against the franchise as a playoff win counts for the franchise.

Second, not all playoff games are equal. A wildcard win is not anywhere nearly as significant as a Super Bowl win. Maybe there should be a sliding scale of points in the playoffs.

Again, you're the one on top of this and I'm not saying you definitely should change it. I'm just throwing it out there.

So glad I bought back in the 90s and diamond handsed this bitch up until now

Forgot all about his. Love this thread. Wonder how high the index will go if we win it all this year? Should put up a poll or place some bets on it for fun.

This is amazing work. My first time seeing it. Thank you!