Looking closer, the area under the Carl Peterson years is distinctly less than the area below the terrible times.

I've said it before on the planet, but this is a good place for another summation and it feels appropriate.

my dad was 12 years old when we won the super bowl. I'm now 26 years old (I'll be 27 by the end of the season, right before the super bowl). it's easy as a 'younger fan' (I don't feel old) to be jaded these days--the chiefs have given me a lot of pretty good moments (beating the niners of steve young, beating the dolphins big and seeing marino's red-ass stare, a last second bomb to kennison to beat the packers, quite a few good memories), but we haven't climbed the ultimate mountain in the nfl--I cried, literally wept like a little girl, after the 1995 playoff game. after the 1997 playoff loss to the stinking goddamned broncos (which I still haven't gotten over, I'm pretty sure I'd kick john elway in the balls if I ever met him), I was depressed (like, probably clinically) for five months. the loss to the colts in 2003 was just one in another long line of dissapointments.

have no doubt about it--I'm absolutely jaded about the chiefs these days. I don't have any real glory days to hold onto, the 90's were good, but it's hard to be sustained with as many dissapointments as we had. I remember being young and truly believing it was gonna happen 'next year.' I'm truly sick of next year. I'm sick of my only real respite being dominating a madden franchise for a few years before I get sick of it. I'm to the point that I kinda believe the only super-bowl victory and dynasty I'll ever see as a chiefs fan is a cheesy video game produced one. it's a ****ing travesty.

it's absolutely depressing. we're the cubs of the nfl, we're the (old) red sox of the nfl. we're a joke.

I'm not sure we should integrate the area under the curve because I think the formula itself is handling that aspect of it.

However, just for grins, if you look at the area under the curve, you get an area of ....

2,170 win-games from 1960 up to December 24th, 1971.

1,370 win-games from Christmas 1971 through Week 3 of 1977 (the last positive day of the era)

-805 win-games through Week 12 of 1981 (the first trough)

-1138 from Week 13 of 1981 through the end of the season and Mackovic in 1986.

-593 during the Gansz era

-826 from the 1989 through the end of the Montana era in 1993 (they were still pulling us up from the depths)

966 from 1994 through the end of the Marty era in 1998

311 during the Gunther era

244 during the Vermeil era

-64 during the Herm era

-95 so far during the Haley era


That would put us at about +1,540 cumulatively if my quick in-head adding is right.

Again, though, I'm thinking that the calculations are more or less the cumulative, more so than the area under the curve. I could be wrong, though.

I'm impressed and depressed all at once, Rainman. You are quite the statistician. You put a new face on the quagmire that we know as the Dallas Texans...er...Kansas City Chiefs. And you also managed to remind me just how eroded my math skills have become. :doh!: I want to be like you when I grow up. :)

No, you are right. I tried to integrate the area under the curve and came out with a peak in 1977, like you did. That is definitely not right. Your initial formula definitely has a cumulative component. I'll have to look at it again when I'm fresh. Your graph is not going to make for pleasant dreams tonight, that's for sure.

Rain Man, I don't if you hear this enough but you are one the best additions to this message board if not THE best.

Thank you for being you.

Thanks for the compliments, guys. I wasn't sure if people would find this interesting or not, but I sure do. Like I said, I'd like to do this for other teams now, other than the fact that it takes a while to get the data put together.

Wow. Really impressive. Rep.

One question, though.

If a playoff loss is worth -3 than wouldn't it be the same point-wise, with this math, to lose one more regular season game and miss the playoffs?

(-3 for playoff loss)+(1 bonus point for playoff appearance) = (-1 for loss)+(-1 for not making the playoffs)

That doesn't seem right to me.

Moreover, say the Niners don't beat the Donks and Denver goes to the playoffs rather than KC, wouldn't Herm's Chiefs have gained one point essentially for not appearing in the playoffs?

Assuming I'm not missing something (big assumption), this would indicate that a team is the same or possibly even worse if it blows it in round one of the postseason rather than missing altogether. Does anyone think that? I know it's heartbreaking but I'd still rather make the playoffs.

Good observation. My playoff bonuses are completely arbitrary and I agonized over them. My main question was, "Is a 1 and done better than not making the playoffs at all?" The obvious response is that it's better to make the playoffs and lose, but at the same time a bunch of 1 and dones is depressing, as we all know.

My compromise solution is to assume that making the playoffs requires a good record, so to some extent a 1 and done season will still be positive in the big picture. But what really makes a difference is winning a playoff game. Otherwise, a 1 and done somewhat deflates the season.

So you're right. It's a bigger hit at the end of the season to lose your first playoff game than it is to not make the playoffs. However, it was probably still a successful season overall since you won enough games to get into the playoffs. Winning playoff games is the real driver, though.

I also tried to think of something related to how many years since you've been in the playoffs, but couldn't think of a good way to build that in conceptually. It was big to get in in 1986, but at the same time the team wasn't that great so as a fan we knew the odds were against us.

Feel free to tweak the formulas.

OH no. I've avoided doing real math since my senior year of high school and you're not going to trick me into that one.

I figured you had a pretty good explanation. I deem it acceptable. Carry on.

Sell MORTIMER!!! SELL!!!!!

Jesus Rain Man. Wow. It looks like you've got some extra brainpower just sitting around. Why don't you go tackle the national deficit? Surely you could hammer that out in a few hours. Anyway good stuff. VERY interesting.

And it does make sense that we are approaching an all time low. I read somewhere we are approaching a Tampa Bay level of multi-year ineptitude. Goddamn, it is physically painful being a Chiefs fan.

Correct. Eventually they would have had to go undefeated to continue growth. And that is much tougher than going from 2-14 to 8-8 for example. It would have been tougher for the glory days fellas to continue growth than it was for Carl. You know, without Arthur Anderson doing the books.

I was thinking the same thing. I would have graduated it. Like 1 Playoff win or a first round bye would be +3, 2 playoff wins would be +4, winning the AFC Championship game would be +5, and the Super Bowl would be +10. I would think a multiplier for the Super Bowl is appropriate. Conversely, a first round loss would be -5, second round loss -4, AFC Championship loss -3, and Super Bowl loss -2. That would just make more sense, because of the added weight of the playoffs.

But I certainly don't care enough to change around your spreadsheet.

Again this is good shit. Much rep.

Rain man you the man.

The sad part is visualizing in graph form how low Herman ****ing Edwards took this team.

This is incredible. I don't understand all this stuff, but I'll take you at your word...send this to One Arrowhead Drive and see what they say about it...

Pretty amazing stuff...