I will admit that following yours and duncan_idaho 's discussion on Simmons I have been more in favor of a DT or a quality Edge if one falls to us. (I am on the same island i just think I landed on the far side of the island)

I would like to hear yours or Duncan's take on seeing Donovan Jackson drop to us and Veach selecting him. I think by nature he is a guard but moved out to tackle when Simmons got hurt....is he good enough to take even if we don't play him at tackle?

Perhaps weighing 300 lbs could offset that 'wear and tear' that would've come over the years to guys like Cruz and Graham?

That is just so much mass that the knee needs to be able to absorb and redirect. With another person pushing them at the same time, no less.

I'll give you age as a mitigating factor but now you have to take weight/force as an aggravating factor.

And I figure, at best, that puts us back where we started.

"Donovan Jackson falls to us" would be like "Skyy Moore falling to us"

It ain't a drop.

He's a mid-late 2nd round talent.

If we take him, we ****ed up and reached for need. Which will be made worse by the fact that there will be guys of equal need who AREN'T reaches available at that spot. Even if it's just Hampton or Henderson (and if those guys are both gone it'll be Grant or Nolen or Harmon or Burden or Ekbuka or Scourton or JT NameINeverSpellRight).

They can't ALL get drafted in the first round. There are 40 guys in a tier above Donovan Jackson. 30 of 'em probably fit our need/scheme as well or better than Jackson. The other 10 are gonna get drafted by SOMEBODY before we go. And there are another 20 guys in the tier WITH Jackson who have more upside and don't need someone presently rostered to fall on their face to play.

We'll have someone there who will be a better selection than Donovan Jackson.

There are a lot of factors. It even sounds like they tried something new with the procedure. So he does have a chance and some team is going to roll the dice with him. But is he a round 1 investment? I doubt he makes it to us in round 2. Guessing i trust the Chiefs to make the right call after looking at his medicals. I doubt any team is going to give much away at this point, so the only information out there is ccoming from his camp. They seem to be pushing the fully recovery angle pretty hard.

Interesting....I have seen a couple of mocks where he was taken in the first round...once by the Chiefs and once by another team. Several others he was taken early in the 2nd round....

FTR...I am in favor of Harmon or Nolen but not sure they make it to 31st....Egbuka or Burden will both be gone and I have seen mocks where Scourtin has fallen as far as mid 2nd ...heck today I saw one mock where Jay Gruden had Andy picking TreyVeon Henderson with the 31st pick. Still too many mocks having us taking Josh Simmons.

We will probably all he surprised when Veach trades down and picks someone we all haven't talked about ad nauseum.

We've talked about EVERYONE ad nauseum.

Age has shit to do with this.

Ryan Williams was in his second year in the league when it ended his career. Greg Childs' career hadn't even started yet (and never did). Cadillac Williams was in year 2 or 3. Jarod Mayo was 26. JC Jackson was 26 or 27.

I mean, the first two dudes mentioned in the article literally never recovered, and they were young dudes.

Dude.

You're bonkers.

Exactly why OL has the WORST return rate of all positions.

FWIW, Simmons is following 15andmahomies on Instagram which is new.

This Simmons shit... it has to stop.

Let's talk about the data set I shared in March regarding Patellar injuries in the NFL, since not many care to read. It's here: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article...rmance%20level

• 31/56 (55%) players returned to the NFL from a patellar injury (RTP).
• Of those, 13/50 (26%) returned to play as many games post-injury as they had pre-injury (RTP Games).
• Only 8/50 (16%) returned to start as many games post-injury as they had pre-injury (RTP Starts).
• The 6 (11%) in the remainder, despite returning to the NFL, never saw another snap.
• Of the 50 that saw snaps, only 12 (24%) returned to prior PFF level of performance at any point (RTP Performance)
• Among those 12, 7 (14%) returned to prior performance after 1 year and 5 (10%) after 2 years.
• OL specifically was 6/17 (35%) RTP, 1/16 (6%) RTP Games, 1/16 (6%) RTP Starts, and 2/16 (13%) RTP Performance with 1 RTPP (6%) after 1 year and 1 (6%) after 2 years.

We are not talking about great odds here people. The media and agents can cook this up howevery they want to cook it. Its a blood-flow injury, so it's going to heal up just fine. Healing up doesn't mean he's ever going to be able to play the same. The elasticity of that tendon is forever affected. His ability to generate power and torque from his quads to the ground is forever affected.

You can look deeper at the stats if you want. Purely looking at OL, he has a 13% chance of ever returning to play at his prior level of performance (this favors Simmons over RTP Starts or RTP Games). Data says 83% of NFL first-round picks on the offensive line hit. So, chances are you'll play somewhere on the OL. 59% actually hit at OT, so a healthy portion of guys drafted to be OTs end up playing some other position.

So if he has a 13% shot of returning to his prior form and a 59% chance of playing OT, then he falls somewhere in the neighborhood of an 8% chance he'll make it as an OT. He has about an 11% chance of ever being anything on the OL.

Is that what you want from your 1st round pick, folks? I don't. In fact, that screams 7th rounder or UDFA. That doesn't even scream 2nd or 3rd rounder.

I'd be willing to take a shot in the dark in round 3. I mean, there is that remote potential that he ends up defying all odds. It's not due to his youth because less experienced, and younger players actually have worse odds in the study. It's merely one of those "so you're telling me there's a chance" situations.

wrong thread

Quick, text this to Veach…

I'm sure NFL teams know. They know data on everything related to the sport.

Media... Fans... Not so much