FWIW, I asked on reddit, and the universal response was that atmospheric drag really can slow it down that much.

That really does have to be the answer. There really isn't anything else going on to slow it. Maybe the numbers flashing by were just messing me up.

Donger, if you want some more technical explanations...

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comm...dates/dscgtet/

Yep, I get it. But again. I was surprised at the rate of deceleration due to just atmospheric "drag"

Rumblings that the payload for the Zuma mission did not achieve orbit. Possibly disinformation, of course.

It's definitely weird. The only official statement is that the F9 performed its duties fine. The payload is classified, so who knows if it ended up having an issue of its own or if it was some sort of test that didn't really require a true orbit. Or maybe it's up there just fine, and all of this secrecy is just to further conceal the mission's purpose.

I doubt we'll ever know, but it doesn't seem like SpaceX is reacting like anything went wrong at all. FH is rolling out for what is expected to be a Wednesday static fire, and there haven't been any rumblings at all about any other launches being delayed due to a failure.

In the meantime, this shot from the launch is really cool.

<a data-flickr-embed="true" data-context="true" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/spacex/39585575631/" title="Zuma Mission"><img src="https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4603/39585575631_67ecc76b5d_c.jpg" width="800" height="534" alt="Zuma Mission"></a><script async src="//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The picture is interesting, I get the two lines where the first stage did it's burns, and the gap seen in the arc between MECO and the second stage starting up, the up-loop showing the back-burn of the first stage, but I don't get why the first burn of the first stage's reentry burn appears higher than where the first and second stages separated.

Just angles?

It definitely kicks up higher the during the boostback burn. Some of it's probably angles, but it probably starts the reentry burn in about the same spot as separation.

This illustration's not to scale or anything, but should give you the gist.

https://i.imgur.com/D9BdO86.png

Welp, this doesn't sound good.

Highly classified US spy satellite appears to be a total loss after SpaceX launch

That helps a lot. Thanks..

For what it's worth, here's Gwynne's official statement about Zuma:

So basically, it sounds like the satellite itself was a loss, but at least for now, it looks like the issue was that the connector to the F9 second stage didn't release properly. In this case, that connector wasn't designed by SpaceX, so it's not on them.

So good news: no delays to FH or the rest of SpaceX's manifest. Bad news: the U.S. appears to have lost a very expensive satellite.

That's just what they want you to think... :)

Misdirection is certainly a plausible answer here too. I don't think we'll ever know...

Is the static fire on for tomorrow?

Everything seems to be based on a bit of speculation at the moment, but the common theory is that, yes, SF is on for tomorrow.

She's definitely vertical on the pad again.

https://i.redd.it/nytkb3vju1901.jpg

Thanks DaFace!

Static fire is officially on the clock for tomorrow.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018...alcon-heavy-1/

The main event is slated for Wednesday during a long static fire window that opens at 13:00 EST (1p local time, 18:00 UTC) and closes at 19:00 EST (7p local time, 00:00 UCT).

Launch is currently NET January 25.

Excellent!

Following what turned out to be an eventful Zuma launch on January 7, SpaceX is gearing up to perform a static fire test on Falcon Heavy as early as today, January 10. In the static fire test, SpaceX engineers will ignite all 27 of the heavy-lift rocket's engines nearly simultaneously for the first time, holding the rocket down on the launch pad while they do. The test is a crucial performance check before the maiden launch of Falcon Heavy, expected at the end of this month or early next.

"Falcon Heavy has been rolled out to launchpad LC-39A for a static fire later this week, to be followed shortly thereafter by its maiden flight," SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell said in a statement released yesterday. The first window for the static fire test is today between 1:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. EST, according to Spaceflight Now.

NASAspaceflight.com reported that workers were seen at the base of the pad this morning determining what work remains for the test fire, suggesting the test could be pushed back to later in the week. First SpaceX will perform what is known as a wet dress rehearsal, filling the rocket with fuel and performing all systems checks short of engine ignition. If everything goes perfectly, they could light the engines directly following the first wet dress rehearsal.

Employees at Kennedy Space Center were told to expect a longer test fire than normal for Falcon Heavy, up to 15 seconds, according to Spaceflight Now. Video of the test should be released shortly after the firing. All three cores of Falcon Heavy have been test fired individually at SpaceX's facilities in McGregor, Texas, but they have yet to light up together.

Once Falcon Heavy launches, it will be the most powerful rocket currently flying.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The first hotfire test for SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket at launch pad 39A in Florida has been postponed to no earlier than Thursday. The test window opens at 1pm EST (1800 GMT). <a href="https://t.co/1Xj8TMDHP7">https://t.co/1Xj8TMDHP7</a> <a href="https://t.co/G7XlxFVj69">pic.twitter.com/G7XlxFVj69</a></p>&mdash; Spaceflight Now (@SpaceflightNow) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/951140588853825536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Damn

If they only had a dome stadium!!! LMAO

Sounds like it is likely on for today. Not that there will be much to watch.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wednesday had engineers on the pad working on the TSMs (Tail Service Masts). Right now, Pad Clear! So next step will be prop load. So far, so good.<br><br>Remember: Prop load is the next milestone. No assurance of an actual Static Fire (but if not, would count as WDR).<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OnStepAtATime?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OnStepAtATime</a> <a href="https://t.co/nZg7BGNu1j">https://t.co/nZg7BGNu1j</a></p>&mdash; Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) <a href="https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/951442166672392193?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
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On a different note, NASA has released target dates for commercial crew. These will almost certainly shift to the right, but it's nice to see a true timeline.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcre...light-dates-2/

Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018

Got a link to a stream, DaFace?

There are live updates here:

https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/01/0...-preparations/

And NASASpaceflight has a low-quality stream here.

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight

However...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Falcon Heavy has enjoyed a prop load for the first time, efficiently allowing for today being a part WDR (Wet Dress Rehearsal) . However, there has been an abort and a scrub for the day. Absolutely understandable. Today has been progress. <a href="https://t.co/BeeU6WkPtU">pic.twitter.com/BeeU6WkPtU</a></p>&mdash; Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) <a href="https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/951512878909132800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
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LMAO

There are so many unknowns about the static fire at this point that I'm not going to try and update every time. It's delayed until Saturday at least at this point.

You can keep up on the latest discussion here or at the SFN links I posed earlier.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comm..._fire_updates/

Ugh:

The test firing, originally scheduled for Thursday, and then re-scheduled for Friday, will now happen no earlier than 5 p.m. on Saturday.

The Falcon Heavy rocket has been moved from its upright position and is now on its side at Kennedy Space Center. SpaceX has not said why the two test-fires have been scrubbed.

Guess I'm not surprised, but it's not looking like FH will launch in January. They're now in a holding pattern on the static fire due to delays with the ULA Atlas V launch next door (which has priority over a test obviously). Hopefully they get it in someday soon, but I'm not holding my breath.

Just for the record, launches are shutdown when the government is shutdown. So everything on the calendar right now is likely drifting to the right.

There she blows!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">First static fire test of Falcon Heavy complete—one step closer to first test flight! <a href="https://t.co/EZF4JOT8e4">pic.twitter.com/EZF4JOT8e4</a></p>&mdash; SpaceX (@SpaceX) <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/956236301275054080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Falcon Heavy hold-down firing this morning was good. Generated quite a thunderhead of steam. Launching in a week or so. <a href="https://t.co/npaqatbNir">pic.twitter.com/npaqatbNir</a></p>&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/956233892637286400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Yay!

I'm going to go ahead and put SES-16 on the clock for Tuesday. There's still technically a chance that FH could happen first, but I doubt it. You can bet I'll be posting it as soon as we have a time set for FH.

For what it's worth, SES-16 will be a previously-flown booster, but they're (by choice) not going to recover it. It's looking like they're gonna plow through a bunch of old Block 3 boosters and not try to recover them as they make way for Block 5 (the first of which is now out of assembly and will be used on an upcoming mission). This is probably also at least partially due to the fact that the center core of FH has to go somewhere, and it's looking like that's going to happen sooner than later. PBJ

Sorry if Q...

I heard a little piece on the radio the other day about the SLS, so on the heels of Falcon heavy might be SLS. This could be fun..

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2737/1

http://www.thespacereview.com/archive/2737b.jpg

vs.

http://www.thespacereview.com/archive/2737a.jpg

Awesome times. I might make it into space before I die after all.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Guys... are you ready!? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FalconHeavy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FalconHeavy</a> LAUNCH DATE!<br><br>February 6th, with a backup on the 7th.<br><br>Launch time is 13:30-16:30 EST (18:30-21:30 UTC)<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ItsHappening?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ItsHappening</a></p>&mdash; Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisG_NSF/status/956964986353528832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Added to the OP. :)

Don't get me wrong - I'm excited about SLS in general. But it's been delayed so much and is going to be so damn expensive to fly, my expectations have been tempered significantly.

If it entertains me, their money is no object. LMAO

I have been someone that has lurked this board for probably 10 years but never saw a point in creating a profile and getting into the mix of things.

But I wanted to create one to give a big shout out to DaFace for this thread. I never really payed attention to SpaceX until I started reading this thread (around the time of their first or second attempt to land) and I have been obsessed since then. I have the falcon heavy launch date on my calendar and I am organizing a launch party at work.

So thanks to DaFace for keeping this thread updated and spreading the excitement!

That's awesome man. Glad the thread helped you find something interesting to follow. The more people we can get to value experimentation and exploration, the better!

Welcome to the CP Space Club! In a few years, we may have enough members to have a get together in a small room.

This isn't about SpaceX really, but...

I love Elon for a wide variety of reasons, but among them is the fact that he can be at the forefront of all of these game-changing technologies while still acting like a complete goofball nerd. If you haven't followed, he's (somewhat playfully, but you never know) starting a tunnel-boring company called "The Boring Company." As a reference to Spaceballs, he said that, if they sold 50k hats, he'd make a flamethrower. Well, here he is playing with the damn thing around the office last night.

<blockquote class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/BeeYW0NA1HU/" data-instgrm-version="8" style=" background:#FFF; border:0; border-radius:3px; box-shadow:0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width:658px; padding:0; width:99.375%; width:-webkit-calc(100% - 2px); width:calc(100% - 2px);"><div style="padding:8px;"> <div style=" background:#F8F8F8; line-height:0; margin-top:40px; padding:50.0% 0; text-align:center; width:100%;"> <div style=" background:url(data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAACwAAAAsCAMAAAApWqozAAAABGdBTUEAALGPC/xhBQAAAAFzUkdCAK7OHOkAAAAMUExURczMzPf399fX1+bm5mzY9AMAAADiSURBVDjLvZXbEsMgCES5/P8/t9FuRVCRmU73JWlzosgSIIZURCjo/ad+EQJJB4Hv8BFt+IDpQoCx1wjOSBFhh2XssxEIYn3ulI/6MNReE07UIWJEv8UEOWDS88LY97kqyTliJKKtuYBbruAyVh5wOHiXmpi5we58Ek028czwyuQdLKPG1Bkb4NnM+VeAnfHqn1k4+GP T6uGQcvu2h2OVuIf/gWUFyy8OWEpdyZSa3aVCqpVoVvzZZ2VTnn2wU8qzVjDDetO90GSy9mVLqtgYSy231MxrY6I2gGqjrTY0L8fxCxfCBbhWrsYYAAAA AElFTkSuQmCC); display:block; height:44px; margin:0 auto -44px; position:relative; top:-22px; width:44px;"></div></div> <p style=" margin:8px 0 0 0; padding:0 4px;"> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BeeYW0NA1HU/" style=" color:#000; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px; text-decoration:none; word-wrap:break-word;" target="_blank">Don’t do this. Also, I want to be clear that a flamethrower is a super terrible idea. Definitely don’t buy one. Unless you like fun.</a></p> <p style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px; margin-bottom:0; margin-top:8px; overflow:hidden; padding:8px 0 7px; text-align:center; text-overflow:ellipsis; white-space:nowrap;">A post shared by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/elonmusk/" style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px;" target="_blank"> Elon Musk</a> (@elonmusk) on <time style=" font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px;" datetime="2018-01-28T01:29:03+00:00">Jan 27, 2018 at 5:29pm PST</time></p></div></blockquote> <script async defer src="//platform.instagram.com/en_US/embeds.js"></script>

You can order one for yourself if you care.

https://www.boringcompany.com/flamethrower

Who's coming to the Space Coast to see the Falcon Heavy Launch ?

I wish but, sadly, no.

I'll be closer than usual but not close enough...
KC to Athens, GA

Thank you for the welcome. I am all for a space club. It's really incredible to think that we could have people in the next few years. Elon has really revolutionized the field.

Not as exciting as the FH launch by any means, but heads up that Govsat is slated to fly in 4 hours. Expendable flight, so no landing.

Annnnnnd it's scrubbed.

Boo. I expected it with the weather, but sounds like it's a sensor problem. Weather looks good for tomorrow at least.

Things SEEM to be on track for launch today. Webcast should go live around 15 minutes prior to launch.

Webcast is running the SpaceX logo and music now.

T -1 minute!

And she's off!

That's a nice looking steam cloud, but I think we can do about 3x bigger...

nice clear shots today

lol @ the dumbasses in the chat trolling about flat earth and fish-eye lens fake footage.

People are so ****ing stupid.

Talk about good timing: Fire alarm at work went off so we all trudged out to the parking lot waiting for the all clear — just in time to see the rocket arcing up into the sky.

Heard a "recovery vessel AOS" in the callouts a bit ago. Guess that means they're still experimenting with fairing recovery. No one has seen the crazy spider arm ship on the east coast, though, so tough to tell what they're trying.

Perfect. Now bring on FH dammit!

Holy shit...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This rocket was meant to test very high retrothrust landing in water so it didn’t hurt the droneship, but amazingly it has survived. We will try to tow it back to shore. <a href="https://t.co/hipmgdnq16">pic.twitter.com/hipmgdnq16</a></p>— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/958847818583584768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 31, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Holy shit that is awesome. Even when they aren't trying they succeed.

Curious. How far ahead of everyone is spacex time wise. It doesn't seem like any other company is anywhere near ready to land rockets yet (out side of blue origin but they are still pretty far from spacex's scale). How far before other people catch up. Over or under 5 years?

Blue Origin is a weird one. On the one hand, they're far behind. But on the other, they have done a ton of R&D that hasn't come to anything yet, but probably will soon. Couple that with a basically endless pile of money that Bezos could throw at it, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them catch up in 5 years.

I don't think anyone else has a chance.

This was the first launch I've watched live, YouTube sent me a notification about 30 prelaunch or I would have missed it. Really insightful and informative coverage. Exciting first 10 minutes. I was pulled away so I missed the fairing separation, I'll go back and try to find it.

Can someone explain the significance of how difficult it was to recover the booster? Elon sounded like it was pretty impressive it survived

Rocket boosters - especially empty rocket boosters - are very strong vertically, but they're really weak horizontally. If you watch the old explosive landing videos, a lot of them almost land, but when they hit the deck horizontally, the entire thing immediately ruptures.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/p9FzWPObsWA?rel=0" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

The expectation is that the booster would tear and explode after hitting the water, but this one apparently slid down into the water so smoothly that it remained pressurized and intact.

Mind you, this booster is trashed and will absolutely never fly again. The salt water will damage pretty much everything even ignoring it'll be dragged through the water 100 miles.

But they might be able to get some good data from it or otherwise learn from it.

Cool shot of the flames from today.

https://i.redd.it/feiz1zmiaid01.jpg

SpaceX confirms it will try to land all of Falcon Heavy's boosters

Elon Musk's outfit has confirmed that it will attempt to land all three boosters on Falcon Heavy's launch, which is now slated for a 2.5-hour window starting at 1:30PM Eastern on February 6th.

https://www.engadget.com/2018/02/03/...nding-attempt/

Any guess how likely it is the FH will launch the 6th or 7th? I'm thinking of taking my 7yo down, but really worried about wasting the money.

Pure gut feeling, I'd say 60% for the 6th and 75% for the 7th. It's definitely a risk.

Weather will be a Sunny 75 degrees with 10 MPH winds. The weather will not delay this launch. Any of the South beaches or the Titusville river front parks will give you a good view without the sun in your eyes.

24(ish) hour bump for FALCON HEAVY!!! Looks like we're gonna have all sorts of cameras on the car and its passenger...

<blockquote class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/BezcvpzAgYI/" data-instgrm-version="8" style=" background:#FFF; border:0; border-radius:3px; box-shadow:0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width:658px; padding:0; width:99.375%; width:-webkit-calc(100% - 2px); width:calc(100% - 2px);"><div style="padding:8px;"> <div style=" background:#F8F8F8; line-height:0; margin-top:40px; padding:50% 0; text-align:center; width:100%;"> <div style=" background:url(data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAACwAAAAsCAMAAAApWqozAAAABGdBTUEAALGPC/xhBQAAAAFzUkdCAK7OHOkAAAAMUExURczMzPf399fX1+bm5mzY9AMAAADiSURBVDjLvZXbEsMgCES5/P8/t9FuRVCRmU73JWlzosgSIIZURCjo/ad+EQJJB4Hv8BFt+IDpQoCx1wjOSBFhh2XssxEIYn3ulI/6MNReE07UIWJEv8UEOWDS88LY97kqyTliJKKtuYBbruAyVh5wOHiXmpi5we58Ek028czwyuQdLKPG1Bkb4NnM+VeAnfHqn1k4+GP T6uGQcvu2h2OVuIf/gWUFyy8OWEpdyZSa3aVCqpVoVvzZZ2VTnn2wU8qzVjDDetO90GSy9mVLqtgYSy231MxrY6I2gGqjrTY0L8fxCxfCBbhWrsYYAAAA AElFTkSuQmCC); display:block; height:44px; margin:0 auto -44px; position:relative; top:-22px; width:44px;"></div></div> <p style=" margin:8px 0 0 0; padding:0 4px;"> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BezcvpzAgYI/" style=" color:#000; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px; text-decoration:none; word-wrap:break-word;" target="_blank">Starman in Red Roadster</a></p> <p style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px; margin-bottom:0; margin-top:8px; overflow:hidden; padding:8px 0 7px; text-align:center; text-overflow:ellipsis; white-space:nowrap;">A post shared by <a href="https://www.instagram.com/elonmusk/" style=" color:#c9c8cd; font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; font-style:normal; font-weight:normal; line-height:17px;" target="_blank"> Elon Musk</a> (@elonmusk) on <time style=" font-family:Arial,sans-serif; font-size:14px; line-height:17px;" datetime="2018-02-05T05:50:31+00:00">Feb 4, 2018 at 9:50pm PST</time></p></div></blockquote> <script async defer src="//platform.instagram.com/en_US/embeds.js"></script>

I believe this is unofficial, but should be pretty close. Doubt the fairing recovery is ready for prime time yet, though.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVQXGgHV4AAtcrf.jpg

What's the liftoff time?

It's in the OP as always, but the window opens 1:30pm EST.

Thanks!!

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Tk338VXcb24" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Nice homage:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t_KXgFpguE0?start=30" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Random quotes from Elon from a sort of press conference today.

• doing a six-hour coast before final second-stage burn; going through Van Allen Belts. Also fuel could freeze or oxygen lost.
• Tesla will be placed into a heliocentric orbit and become a Earth-Mars cycler; only extremely tiny chance of hitting Mars in foreseeable future.
• one area of concern is relative interactions of the three booster cores; could be resonance or shockwave impingement. Once second stage separates, we’re in much more known territory other than long-duration coast.
• looks like development of BFR is moving quickly, and won’t be necessary to qualify Falcon Heavy for crewed spaceflight.
• if we’re successful, offer near super-heavy-lift for little more than Falcon 9. “Game over” for all other heavy-lift rockets.
• if successful with this test launch, we’ll be ready to put a satellite on the next Falcon Heavy launch.
• if successful should be able to d another FH in three to six months. Can produce them at a pretty rapid rate.
• if we wanted to, we could add to more side boosters, make it Falcon Super Heavy.
• If FH blows up the pad, it'll take at least 9 - 12 months to get the pad back in action. It won't affect production.
• However if it clears the pad and doesn't go well, can launch FH again in 3 to 4 months