Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
(Post 10513045)
Are we ready to just outright call the AL Central race even on paper, or is that a little too ambitious?
|
Maybe. Factors:
1) Do Butler and Gordon regress to their means? That would mean Butler is .300/.375/.450 with 15-20 HR and 40-50 2B, Gordon is .290/.360/.450 with 15-20 HR, 40-50 2B.
2) Does Hosmer do it for a whole season? If he does, you're talking about .300/25/100/100/15, .300/.350/.500 type production.
3) Is Moustakas really improved? Not saying he'll do what he is in ST, but if he can give them a full season at his first half 2012 level, that would work out to .275/28/80, .275/.320/.500. That's just enormous.
4) Is Ventura the real deal? To the point of 200 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP 200 Ks?
5) Do the Royals bullpen and defense remain in the same general ballpark (not as good, but close and still elite)?
For the Tigers:
1) Do Sanchez and Scherzer perform at the same level or take small steps back?
2) How does the new-look offense perform? Jackson in the 5, Kinsler at the top?
3) Is their bullpen BETTER with Joe Nathan but without Smyly, Benoit and Rondon?
4) Speaking of Smyly, what does he give them in the rotation? Unlikely it is as much as Fister, but can he give them 80 percent? 90 percent?
5) Finally, is the D improved as much as some think? Without Iglesias linchpinning it, they're still below average at SS, 1B, C and 3B. Just OK in LF, pretty good in CF, pretty good in RF. Very good at 2B. Seems like the D will still be a step below average, especially on the infield.