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-   -   Chiefs *****The Rashee Rice Thread***** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=348549)

ThaVirus 09-27-2023 02:59 PM

Plus we saw an INT last year against the 49ers due to Moore not being where he was supposed to be. Obviously we’ve seen many INTs resulting from drops.

Doesn’t matter which is the case, the worst case scenario is a turnover. Best case is still no gain and loss of down.

Titty Meat 10-01-2023 07:34 PM

We sure his drops are NBD?

Pepe Silvia 10-01-2023 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 17140537)
We sure his drops are NBD?

He’s awful.

Wisconsin_Chief 10-01-2023 07:37 PM

It would be super nice to have WRs who could catch the football, that’s for sure.

Pitt Gorilla 10-01-2023 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Titty Meat (Post 17140537)
We sure his drops are NBD?

They're becoming a tad more worrisome.

WilliamTheIrish 10-01-2023 07:48 PM

Paddy

dannybcaitlyn 10-01-2023 08:09 PM

Just when Wilson was about to become a career back somewhere Spags revives his career!

Womble 10-01-2023 10:07 PM

Every ****ing week with this guy. We should have done everything possible to move up for Zay Flowers in the draft. Now we're stuck just hoping that Rashee can learn to catch an uncontested pass after 15+ years of practicing it every day. Obviously I'm pulling for the kid but when you see easy drops every game your faith starts to wain.

Edit: I was wrong. Silly Womble. Rashee is innocent btw.

BossChief 10-01-2023 10:09 PM

I think they did try moving up for Flowers.

RunKC 10-01-2023 11:13 PM

I think he's gonna be good but he just needs time. He's an excellent chain mover that gets YAC so effectively. Keep doing that and slowly work some new stuff in.

The drops suck but you know who else had bad drops as a rookie? Devante Adams. Not saying Rice is Adams but this is fixable.

|Zach| 10-02-2023 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 17142793)
I think he's gonna be good but he just needs time. He's an excellent chain mover that gets YAC so effectively. Keep doing that and slowly work some new stuff in.

The drops suck but you know who else had bad drops as a rookie? Devante Adams. Not saying Rice is Adams but this is fixable.

Hell I remember Tony G having a lot of problems early in his career.

TEX 10-02-2023 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief (Post 17132985)
I’m not counting on him being able to improve the drops by a huge measure, but I do think he will learn to focus on the ball till it’s in his hands more. I just think it’s part of him as a player. He will make a lot of incredible plays, it I think he will always have focus drops.

He’s very very similar to Dwayne Bowe in that sense, but he’s a lot more focused than Bowe ever was (even during Haley years) and I think he will have similar production to Bowe.

As someone else said, we just need to hope that his drops don’t change games by tipped pick 6s.

But tonight it did change the game to a degree, b/c instead of getting the easy 1st down, the drop made the Chiefs settle for a FG.

ThyKingdomCome15 10-02-2023 03:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TEX (Post 17142875)
But tonight it did change the game to a degree, b/c instead of getting the easy 1st down, the drop made the Chiefs settle for a FG.

He drops the ball every game, sometimes twice. Then he'll make three really nice plays where he shows his explosive YAC ability. 3 to 1 ratio isn't bad for a rookie who's played in four games. He's looking good. He's showing more potential than Moore at a minimum.

Moore has a little Meh in his game and he's not shaking it. He's not fast but can cut. It just doesn't fit our style of ball very well. If you're not fast then you at least need to be a bigger body like Juju, Gray, or Watson. Moore and CEH are both small. I'm not catching the good vibes at the moment. Hopefully it's just a growing phase.

wachashi 10-02-2023 09:17 AM

At this point, his NFL highlight reel might not be as long as his blooper reel. It's frustrating because he has chemistry with Mahomes, and his quickness and physicality are apparent in every game.

dlphg9 10-02-2023 10:09 PM

Ok, so he has some stupid drops, but right now he is our go to WR for 1st downs and leads all WRs on this team in 1st down catches.

Rice - 8
Watson - 5
Moore - 5
Toney - 4
MVS - 4
James - 0
Ross - 0

I really wish they'd let Rice get 60% of the snaps, because I think he'd really take off. He's only played in 37% of the total snaps, but he's still on pace for 595 yds. The James and Toney injuries might be blessing in disguises, because it gets Rice more work and should probably speed up his development.

kozzman555 10-02-2023 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 17145041)
Ok, so he has some stupid drops, but right now he is our go to WR for 1st downs and leads all WRs on this team in 1st down catches.

Rice - 8
Watson - 5
Moore - 5
Toney - 4
MVS - 4
James - 0
Ross - 0

I really wish they'd let Rice get 60% of the snaps, because I think he'd really take off. He's only played in 37% of the total snaps, but he's still on pace for 595 yds. The James and Toney injuries might be blessing in disguises, because it gets Rice more work and should probably speed up his development.

How many times has it been said that Reid's offense is notoriously complicated and takes time to pick up and learn? Dude is a rookie WR, they are working him in. Rice needs time to learn the playbook and Mahomes needs time to learn to trust him to be where he's supposed to be and that he will actually catch the damn ball. Pretend it's our defense of the last few years that slowly ramps up all season.

dlphg9 10-02-2023 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kozzman555 (Post 17145078)
How many times has it been said that Reid's offense is notoriously complicated and takes time to pick up and learn? Dude is a rookie WR, they are working him in. Rice needs time to learn the playbook and Mahomes needs time to learn to trust him to be where he's supposed to be and that he will actually catch the damn ball. Pretend it's our defense of the last few years that slowly ramps up all season.

I know what's been said and I don't really care. When he gets opportunities he makes a play and makes more plays than anyone else not named Kelce or Pacheco. He's already the best WR on the team. Learning in game is gonna do wonders for his development. Sure, it's a complicated system, but they do rookies a disservice by the way they utilize them. Rice looks like the only guy worth a shit, so I'd like to see the guy that is making plays keep playing.

BWillie 10-03-2023 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kozzman555 (Post 17145078)
How many times has it been said that Reid's offense is notoriously complicated and takes time to pick up and learn? Dude is a rookie WR, they are working him in. Rice needs time to learn the playbook and Mahomes needs time to learn to trust him to be where he's supposed to be and that he will actually catch the damn ball. Pretend it's our defense of the last few years that slowly ramps up all season.

This is a cop out. Juju was new and he hit the ground running. So did Watkins more or less. This narrative needs to die.

chiefzilla1501 10-03-2023 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kozzman555 (Post 17145078)
How many times has it been said that Reid's offense is notoriously complicated and takes time to pick up and learn? Dude is a rookie WR, they are working him in. Rice needs time to learn the playbook and Mahomes needs time to learn to trust him to be where he's supposed to be and that he will actually catch the damn ball. Pretend it's our defense of the last few years that slowly ramps up all season.

Plans change. They thought they could just plug in Skyy for Juju and elevate Toney's role, but obviously that hasn't worked out. So they need to pivot. What they're seeing is Rashee is plenty ready to take on a bigger role. ALthough he has drops he has shown an advanced understanding of playing within the offense. Way better than even guys like Skyy who've been in the system for over a year.

It's not like Andy is allergic to playing rookies. Desean Jackson had almost 1000 years in his rookie year and was the team's reception leader. The year after that Maclin had 770 yards. Now that they know he's needed in that role, they should focus on getting him more reps. It's not vulturing anybody else's because nobody has yet claimed the role we want him in.

Pasta Little Brioni 10-03-2023 06:36 AM

Best WR on the team already. I think we'll see the snaps climb every week from here out

St. Patty's Fire 10-03-2023 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 17145128)
This is a cop out. Juju was new and he hit the ground running. So did Watkins more or less. This narrative needs to die.

those arent rookies lmao. pretty significant difference

DC.chief 10-03-2023 06:46 AM

Man I love how fast Rice turns up field once he catches the ball. Faster than any other WR on the roster. However I also think that’s part of his drop issues


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

chiefzilla1501 10-03-2023 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DC.chief (Post 17145165)
Man I love how fast Rice turns up field once he catches the ball. Faster than any other WR on the roster. However I also think that’s part of his drop issues


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s odd because I’d argue he’s more prepared for the ball than a lot of our other guys. Watch the way he sits in his spot and asks for the ball. The guy knows where to cut off his route and find the most open space. It’s the reason you can tell mahomes really trusts him.

BWillie 10-03-2023 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by St. Patty's Fire (Post 17145162)
those arent rookies lmao. pretty significant difference

Ya think? Regardless for a new player to a new system it doesn't really matter if they are a rookie or just a newcomer. Its new to everyone.

staylor26 10-03-2023 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie (Post 17145499)
Ya think? Regardless for a new player to a new system it doesn't really matter if they are a rookie or just a newcomer. Its new to everyone.

Rookies aren't just learning a playbook. They're learning how to be pros and adjusting to the jump in competition on top of everything else. The vets already have a good grasp of NFL concepts, the speed of the game, etc.

Of course only you need this nuance explained to you.

duncan_idaho 10-03-2023 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DC.chief (Post 17145165)
Man I love how fast Rice turns up field once he catches the ball. Faster than any other WR on the roster. However I also think that’s part of his drop issues


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, that explosive 10- and 20-yard split speed really shows up when he accelerates after the catch.

O.city 10-03-2023 10:22 AM

Just keep feeding him the ball.

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 (Post 17145167)
It’s odd because I’d argue he’s more prepared for the ball than a lot of our other guys. Watch the way he sits in his spot and asks for the ball. The guy knows where to cut off his route and find the most open space. It’s the reason you can tell mahomes really trusts him.

It's really my major concern with him. I don't see many of these as concentration drops at this point - they're looking like technique drops.

Now maybe, as happens with a goalie having a bad game, he's "fighting the puck" and his hands are just a little too tight as the ball is coming in. But he's getting his hands up and the ball's just bouncing off them. That's a technique problem in that he's just not absorbing the ball with his hands.

Now in complete fairness - I've never caught a 50 mph football and I'm sure that's ****ing hard. There's probably a lot more to it that 'put the point in the window' as I was always taught. But man, that always seems to fix any issues because when you do that, your hands really don't have a choice but to wrap around the ball.

It's odd.

Then again, I take some comfort in the stat that I believe CD put up around here somewhere - drop rates almost always stabilize for 95% of receivers in the league. Some are truly remarkable, some are truly bad. But 95% of receivers have drop rates within the margin of error of each other. And over large enough sample sizes, pretty much all of them regress/progress to the mean.

I'm fairly confident that Rice will do the same. He's just fighting the ball a bit at the moment.

ToxSocks 10-03-2023 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17145540)
Just keep feeding him the ball.

Feed him snaps. The ball will come naturally.

-King- 10-03-2023 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145512)
Rookies aren't just learning a playbook. They're learning how to be pros and adjusting to the jump in competition on top of everything else. The vets already have a good grasp of NFL concepts, the speed of the game, etc.

Of course only you need this nuance explained to you.

We have the only system where guys have to take a year to "learn to be pros and adjust to the level of competition"?

Like OTWP was saying last week, there's no reason Puka can come out his rookie year and set rookie receiving records, meanwhile Rice can't even play the majority of snaps. Especially when the players in front of him produce less than him. Keep him out there. He'll make mistakes, but he clearly will make more plays than the rest of the WRs.

O.city 10-03-2023 10:35 AM

Eh, I do feel like they're bringing Rice along at about the normal rate you'd see a rookie.

Puka is the exception, not the rule. It happens.

staylor26 10-03-2023 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145571)
We have the only system where guys have to take a year to "learn to be pros and adjust to the level of competition"?

Like OTWP was saying last week, there's no reason Puka can come out his rookie year and set rookie receiving records, meanwhile Rice can't even play the majority of snaps. Especially when the players in front of him produce less than him. Keep him out there. He'll make mistakes, but he clearly will make more plays than the rest of the WRs.

Who said they have to take a year?

I'm simply explaining why he's not a starter 4 weeks into the season.

And Puka is the epitome of an outlier. Even the best WR in the game took several weeks to become a starter and break out.

-King- 10-03-2023 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17145575)
Eh, I do feel like they're bringing Rice along at about the normal rate you'd see a rookie.

Puka is the exception, not the rule. It happens.

He has the 2nd lowest snap count % of the WRs drafted in the 1st and 2nd round. And again, it's not like we're in a situation where there are proven players or star players in front of him preventing him from getting snaps. From what we've seen, there's no reason he shouldn't have been getting starter snaps since game 1.

staylor26 10-03-2023 10:45 AM

Look at this year's 1st round WRs.

Addison: still WR3 behind Osborn.

JSN: WR3 on a team that runs a lot of 12 personnel.

Johnston: was WR4 until Mike Williams went down. Still behind Joshua Palmer.

The only 1st round WR that's getting starter snaps is Flowers. That's it.

Rice is probably getting targeted more than any of those guys, except maybe Addison (who just put up a dud this week).

-King- 10-03-2023 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145585)
Who said they have to take a year?

I'm simply explaining why he's not a starter 4 weeks into the season.

And Puka is the epitome of an outlier. Even the best WR in the game took several weeks to become a starter and break out.

Yes Puka is the exception which is why I only pointed to Rices snap count not production. I wouldn't expect him to start setting receiving records, but Puka is playing 88% of snaps. Rice can't even get 51%?

staylor26 10-03-2023 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145594)
He has the 2nd lowest snap count % of the WRs drafted in the 1st and 2nd round. And again, it's not like we're in a situation where there are proven players or star players in front of him preventing him from getting snaps. From what we've seen, there's no reason he shouldn't have been getting starter snaps since game 1.

Now do targets and target share.

Who cares what his snap count is right now? He's getting more usage than any other WR on the team. The snaps will clearly increase. JFC you guys are so impatient.

staylor26 10-03-2023 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145603)
Yes Puka is the exception which is why I only pointed to Rices snap count not production. I wouldn't expect him to start setting receiving records, but Puka is playing 88% of snaps. Rice can't even get 51%?

Even with Rice's snap count, he's still been our most targeted WR.

You're ignoring his actual usage to complain about his snap counts, which are pretty much guaranteed to go up.

-King- 10-03-2023 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145606)
Now do targets and target share.

Who cares what his snap count is right now? He's getting more usage than any other WR on the team. The snaps will clearly increase. JFC you guys are so impatient.

...that helps prove the case that he should have been getting more snaps.

staylor26 10-03-2023 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145628)
...that helps prove the case that he should have been getting more snaps.

And it should also give you confidence that the snap count increase that you are waiting anxiously for is coming.

Do you think it's an accident or happenstance that he's been our most targeted WR, despite the snap count?

It's not like they don't clearly realize he's one of their top 2-3 WRs.

But of course, per usual, you know better than Andy and Veach.

-King- 10-03-2023 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145631)
And it should also give you confidence that the snap count increase that you are waiting anxiously for is coming.

It's not like they don't clearly realize he's one of their top 2-3 WRs.

But of course, per usual, you know better than Andy and Veach.

They're doing the whole "you must know better than Reid" argument in another thread. You should join in. You'd feel right at home.

staylor26 10-03-2023 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145636)
They're doing the whole "you must know better than Reid" argument in another thread. You should join in. You'd feel right at home.

This isn't about another thread or argument. It's about this pattern with you specfically.

How many times must Andy and Veach rub their ****ing balls across your face before you finally learn?

We can go all the way back to the Travis Kelce thread where you bitched endlessly about the pick only to look like a fool.

You've been doing this hit for the entirety of this incredible run. Whether it's crying about the Tyreek trade, or saying Veach needed to change his FA process after missing on Trent Williams, you've been clowned on non-stop, and you've learned absolutely nothing.

-King- 10-03-2023 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145647)
This isn't about another thread or argument. It's about this pattern with you specfically.

How many times must Andy and Veach rub their ****ing balls across your face before you finally learn?

We can go all the way back to the Travis Kelce thread where you bitched endlessly about the pick only to look like a fool.

You've been doing this hit for the entirety of this incredible run. Whether it's crying about the Tyreek trade, or saying Veach needed to change his FA process after missing on Trent Williams, you've been clowned on non-stop, and you've learned absolutely nothing.

Yeah I'm critical of some things and I praise some things. That's kinda what keeps discussion boards ticking. This discussion of different ideas. Sometimes I think one thing and I'm right. Sometimes I think one thing and I'm wrong. It happens. So you wanna talk about the chiefs now or talk about me some more?

staylor26 10-03-2023 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145673)
Yeah I'm critical of some things and I praise some things. That's kinda what keeps discussion boards ticking. This discussion of different ideas. Sometimes I think one thing and I'm right. Sometimes I think one thing and I'm wrong. It happens. So you wanna talk about the chiefs now or talk about me some more?

Yes, let's get back to you crying that Rice isn't getting enough snaps when he's the most targeted WR on the team and Veach has already said he will be eased into a starting role (in other words, those snaps are coming).

Remember when you acted like Puka was the rule and not the exception, so I tried to point out the situations of the majority of 1st round WRs, and you just ignored it? Because it doesn't fit your narrative that the Chiefs are SO much different

-King- 10-03-2023 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145682)
Yes, let's get back to you crying that Rice isn't getting enough snaps when he's the most targeted WR on the team and Veach has already said he will be eased into a starting role (in other words, those snaps are coming).

Remember when you acted like Puka was the rule and not the exception, so I tried to point out the situations of the majority of 1st round WRs, and you just ignored it? Because it doesn't fit your narrative that the Chiefs are SO much different

I pointed out Puka to highlight that you can get a rookie out there playing major snaps. It's not that hard to follow Staylor. Just take a breath and calm down a little. You can do it.

And yes when a player is clearly the most productive player on a unit, it makes logical sense to want to see him be used more.

RunKC 10-03-2023 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145603)
Yes Puka is the exception which is why I only pointed to Rices snap count not production. I wouldn't expect him to start setting receiving records, but Puka is playing 88% of snaps. Rice can't even get 51%?

The Rams WR is terrible right now. It's Van Jefferson and a bunch of shit bc Cupp is injured.

Tutu Atwell is like 5'9" 175 lbs soaking wet so of course they're force feeding Puka.

The Rams WR room is so bad right now that they signed Demarcus Robinson. This isn't hard dude. Rice is clearly getting more snaps bc Toney is injured and on a pitch count.

-King- 10-03-2023 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 17145719)
The Rams WR is terrible right now. It's Van Jefferson and a bunch of shit bc Cupp is injured.

Tutu Atwell is like 5'9" 175 lbs soaking wet so of course they're force feeding Puka.

The Rams WR room is so bad right now that they signed Demarcus Robinson. This isn't hard dude. Rice is clearly getting more snaps bc Toney is injured and ona. Pitch count.

Yes...I agree? So when a WR corp is terrible, the one that's the most productive should be getting a lot of snaps and fed the ball right?

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 17145719)
The Rams WR room is so bad right now that they signed Demarcus Robinson. This isn't hard dude. Rice is clearly getting more snaps bc Toney is injured and on a pitch count.

Which would obviously beg the question - why is Rice seemingly behind Moore and Watson as the guy in a timeshare with Toney while those two are getting significantly more snaps despite being clearly less productive?

Watson I understand because the big-play potential and reliability. Frustrating as it is, he's oftentimes been our most critical WR to this point.

But Moore? In what world should Rice be behind Moore on the depth chart. Because that's clearly how he's being used at the moment - a backup Z rather than a starting X.

While Moore is getting an unchallenged starter's snap share.

That's just...wrong, IMO.

staylor26 10-03-2023 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145715)
I pointed out Puka to highlight that you can get a rookie out there playing major snaps. It's not that hard to follow Staylor. Just take a breath and calm down a little. You can do it.

And yes when a player is clearly the most productive player on a unit, it makes logical sense to want to see him be used more.

No, you tried to frame it like what the Chiefs are doing is exclusive to them.

Quote:

We have the only system where guys have to take a year to "learn to be pros and adjust to the level of competition"?
As I explained, it's not about "taking a year". Bringing along rookie WRs slowly to start the season is the norm, dumbass.

BWillie 10-03-2023 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145512)
Rookies aren't just learning a playbook. They're learning how to be pros and adjusting to the jump in competition on top of everything else. The vets already have a good grasp of NFL concepts, the speed of the game, etc.

Of course only you need this nuance explained to you.

Thank you. I look forward in competing in the 2026 Special Olympic games. Really fired up about it.

RunKC 10-03-2023 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 17145732)
Which would obviously beg the question - why is Rice seemingly behind Moore and Watson as the guy in a timeshare with Toney while those two are getting significantly more snaps despite being clearly less productive?

Watson I understand because the big-play potential and reliability. Frustrating as it is, he's oftentimes been our most critical WR to this point.

But Moore? In what world should Rice be behind Moore on the depth chart. Because that's clearly how he's being used at the moment - a backup Z rather than a starting X.

While Moore is getting an unchallenged starter's snap share.

That's just...wrong, IMO.

Give it time. The kid has gotten roughly half the snaps in his 3rd/4th NFL game. What stands out is the targets. Rice getting over twice as many targets as Skyy Moore tells me everything.

If Skyy keeps playing like this he's gonna lose snaps. Really think this is an important month for Skyy's career bc if he isn't gonna show anything then it's gonna have consequences.

-King- 10-03-2023 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145735)
No, you tried to frame it like what the Chiefs are doing is exclusive to them.



As I explained, it's not about "taking a year". Bringing along rookie WRs slowly to start the season is the norm, dumbass.

Is it the norm when the WRs in front of that rookie aren't producing? And the rookie is clearly better?

staylor26 10-03-2023 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King- (Post 17145746)
Is it the norm when the WRs in front of that rookie aren't producing? And the rookie is clearly better?

Do you think KJ Osborn is better than Jordan Addison?

Do you think Joshua Palmer is better than Quentin Johnston?

Do you think whatever WR after Thielen that was getting more snaps than Justin Jefferson early in his rookie year was better than him?

It's pretty ****ing obvious that the Chiefs know Rice is more talented, and it's the mental part of the game that is their reasoning, but let's pretend differently.

FloridaMan88 10-03-2023 12:58 PM

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Seen some chatter re: the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> acquiring a WR at the trade deadline — but perhaps an answer is on their own team. Last week, we noted Trent McDuffie ranked 1 (<a href="https://twitter.com/PFF?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@pff</a>) among all NFL cornerbacks.<br><br>Who&#39;s tied for No. 14 among all NFL receivers?<br><br>Rashee Rice (T- Mike Evans) - 79.0</p>&mdash; Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) <a href="https://twitter.com/pgsween/status/1709225395642347842?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

New World Order 10-03-2023 01:10 PM

Hopefully Cinci keeps losing and we can swing a trade for a guy like Tyler Boyd.

dlphg9 10-03-2023 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 17145541)
It's really my major concern with him. I don't see many of these as concentration drops at this point - they're looking like technique drops.

Now maybe, as happens with a goalie having a bad game, he's "fighting the puck" and his hands are just a little too tight as the ball is coming in. But he's getting his hands up and the ball's just bouncing off them. That's a technique problem in that he's just not absorbing the ball with his hands.

Now in complete fairness - I've never caught a 50 mph football and I'm sure that's ****ing hard. There's probably a lot more to it that 'put the point in the window' as I was always taught. But man, that always seems to fix any issues because when you do that, your hands really don't have a choice but to wrap around the ball.

It's odd.

Then again, I take some comfort in the stat that I believe CD put up around here somewhere - drop rates almost always stabilize for 95% of receivers in the league. Some are truly remarkable, some are truly bad. But 95% of receivers have drop rates within the margin of error of each other. And over large enough sample sizes, pretty much all of them regress/progress to the mean.

I'm fairly confident that Rice will do the same. He's just fighting the ball a bit at the moment.

I'd love to see that data/stat.

dlphg9 10-03-2023 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88 (Post 17145929)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Seen some chatter re: the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chiefs</a> acquiring a WR at the trade deadline — but perhaps an answer is on their own team. Last week, we noted Trent McDuffie ranked 1 (<a href="https://twitter.com/PFF?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@pff</a>) among all NFL cornerbacks.<br><br>Who&#39;s tied for No. 14 among all NFL receivers?<br><br>Rashee Rice (T- Mike Evans) - 79.0</p>&mdash; Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) <a href="https://twitter.com/pgsween/status/1709225395642347842?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They need to take snaps from guys that just aren't getting it done and give them to Rice. I really think if he was given at least the 3rd most snaps amongst the WRs that he'd get damn close or even surpass 1000 yds. I think Mahomes clearly trusts him more than the other WRs too, even with the drop issues, because he has more targets than everyone of them and plays less than most of them.

Reid needs to bite the bullet and let him play more.

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9 (Post 17145997)
I'd love to see that data/stat.

I'm almost positive it was CDCox somewhere. Wish I had any recollection as to when/where it was. I think it was in August when we were talking about Rice. Hell it may be in this thread somewhere.

It was pretty interesting. It really does suggest there's a thresshold level of ability and if these WRs don't hit it, they don't stick around very long and thus don't impact the large numbers significantly.

And it also gets back to how narrow the lines are drawn between the JAGs and the superstars. The differences between Skyy Moore and Antonio Brown may not be easy to see on paper, but boy howdy do they scream loudly on a football field.

In closing - RAS is reeruned.

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 01:42 PM

Found 'em....

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 17075523)
I did a detailed analysis of WR drops today. From year to year, the league-wide drop rate is 6.5%. In a given season, a simple model where every receiver has a 6.5% chance of dropping a given pass, accurately reproduces the league wide drop frequency distribution. The correlation between drop rates in 2022 and 2023 for a given receiver was only 0.2.

Stripping through all the math, no receiver in the NFL has better hands than another. The simplest representation is that all NFL receivers have a 6.5% chance of dropping any given pass.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 17075831)
I calculated the drop rate of every WR by:

Drop rate = drops/(drops+receptions)

The denominator of that represents catchable balls.

I then plotted the drop rate in 2021 vs the drop rate in 2022 of every receiver who caught at least 50 passes in both years. If some players had better hands than others, you'd expect them to have similar drop rates in both years and all the points to be scattered on a 45 degree line. Instead you get a scatter plot with a correlation coefficient of only 0.2. There is another analysis I did, but it is a little more complex.


I'll leave it to him to really expound on his data if he wants, but most any prolific receiver over large enough sample sizes is going to drop 6.5% of the passes he gets thrown, plus or minus a little in the margins.

Dunerdr 10-03-2023 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order (Post 17145963)
Hopefully Cinci keeps losing and we can swing a trade for a guy like Tyler Boyd.

Even with the pending cap rape theyre facing down, I doubt they would be interested.

Chief Pagan 10-03-2023 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 17145541)
It's really my major concern with him. I don't see many of these as concentration drops at this point - they're looking like technique drops.

Now maybe, as happens with a goalie having a bad game, he's "fighting the puck" and his hands are just a little too tight as the ball is coming in. But he's getting his hands up and the ball's just bouncing off them. That's a technique problem in that he's just not absorbing the ball with his hands.

Now in complete fairness - I've never caught a 50 mph football and I'm sure that's ****ing hard. There's probably a lot more to it that 'put the point in the window' as I was always taught. But man, that always seems to fix any issues because when you do that, your hands really don't have a choice but to wrap around the ball.

It's odd.

Then again, I take some comfort in the stat that I believe CD put up around here somewhere - drop rates almost always stabilize for 95% of receivers in the league. Some are truly remarkable, some are truly bad. But 95% of receivers have drop rates within the margin of error of each other. And over large enough sample sizes, pretty much all of them regress/progress to the mean.

I'm fairly confident that Rice will do the same. He's just fighting the ball a bit at the moment.

So I played Basketball as a kid, not football.

My serious question:

Why do so many NFL players seem to have problems with uncontested drops that stabilize after a couple of years.

Why don't they figure this out in college?

Is the ball being thrown harder? Or are there a lot of drops in college. I don't watch much college. Or even if the catch is uncontested is something else going on? Like it's harder to get open so less attention to tracking the ball?

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145599)
Look at this year's 1st round WRs.

Addison: still WR3 behind Osborn.

JSN: WR3 on a team that runs a lot of 12 personnel.

Johnston: was WR4 until Mike Williams went down. Still behind Joshua Palmer.

The only 1st round WR that's getting starter snaps is Flowers. That's it.

Rice is probably getting targeted more than any of those guys, except maybe Addison (who just put up a dud this week).

It's a mix bag.

Flowers is getting a ton of snaps. He's basically the second option in the pass game behind Andrews.

JSN is being worked in pretty slowly but he missed part of camp with injury and he has 2 high level WRs in front of him and a HC that wants to run the ball, with 2 highly drafted RBs.

QJ so far is an absolute dud, even without Williams his snap count isn't great and Palmer is getting a lot more targets.

Addison you can see the route running and explosion and the highlight plays he's making. Osbourne is ahead of him for now..I doubt that lasts much longer.

But as we move down, Tank Dell is getting starter snaps and it seems he and Nico Collins are taking turns on who will have the big game each week.

Mingo is getting starter snaps but he's been a dud...not sure how much is him and how much is the Carolina offense being a turd.

Jayden Reed is seeing a pretty solid role in GB as the slot guy and he has a good number of snaps and targets.

Marvin Mims is basically doing exactly what Rice is doing in that he's being slowly worked into the system, he has hit a few HR plays in that process.

Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman seem to be MIA in being in bad offenses.

Josh Downs, basically echo the Reed comment, he's the starting slot and has a solid role.

Michael Wilson now this one is interesting, he's a starter, albeit on a pretty bad team but he has had solid production so far.

That's the first 3 rounds after that the guys are doing about what you'd expect of Day 3 WRs, some snaps here and there, specials etc. Unless you're Puka Nacua.

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by staylor26 (Post 17145761)
Do you think KJ Osborn is better than Jordan Addison?

Do you think Joshua Palmer is better than Quentin Johnston?

Do you think whatever WR after Thielen that was getting more snaps than Justin Jefferson early in his rookie year was better than him?

It's pretty ****ing obvious that the Chiefs know Rice is more talented, and it's the mental part of the game that is their reasoning, but let's pretend differently.

Of that question, the Johnston one is the most concerning to me. He was drafted to replace Mike Williams and when they had Allen, Palmer and Johnston out there Herbert basically doesn't throw it to QJ.

Is that a trust thing or does Johnston suck at getting open?

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 17145719)
The Rams WR is terrible right now. It's Van Jefferson and a bunch of shit bc Cupp is injured.

Tutu Atwell is like 5'9" 175 lbs soaking wet so of course they're force feeding Puka.

The Rams WR room is so bad right now that they signed Demarcus Robinson. This isn't hard dude. Rice is clearly getting more snaps bc Toney is injured and on a pitch count.

Actually...Nacua is good, TuTu Atwell has a role and Kupp is a top 5 WR....that is not a bad room, Van Jefferson basically shit his pants when given a chance though.

O.city 10-03-2023 02:26 PM

Almost like most rookie WR's, especially ones that aren't Jamar Chase are gonna come into the league and have to take some time to get up to speed no?

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 17146134)
Almost like most rookie WR's, especially ones that aren't Jamar Chase are gonna come into the league and have to take some time to get up to speed no?

It's more common for someone to come in and be able to play right away today than it was a decade ago.

This wasn't a great WR draft but if you go back the last several years you'll find many rookie WR's that were productive right away.

Pitt Gorilla 10-03-2023 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca (Post 17146116)
It's a mix bag.

Flowers is getting a ton of snaps. He's basically the second option in the pass game behind Andrews.

JSN is being worked in pretty slowly but he missed part of camp with injury and he has 2 high level WRs in front of him and a HC that wants to run the ball, with 2 highly drafted RBs.

QJ so far is an absolute dud, even without Williams his snap count isn't great and Palmer is getting a lot more targets.

Addison you can see the route running and explosion and the highlight plays he's making. Osbourne is ahead of him for now..I doubt that lasts much longer.

But as we move down, Tank Dell is getting starter snaps and it seems he and Nico Collins are taking turns on who will have the big game each week.

Mingo is getting starter snaps but he's been a dud...not sure how much is him and how much is the Carolina offense being a turd.

Jayden Reed is seeing a pretty solid role in GB as the slot guy and he has a good number of snaps and targets.

Marvin Mims is basically doing exactly what Rice is doing in that he's being slowly worked into the system, he has hit a few HR plays in that process.

Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman seem to be MIA in being in bad offenses.

Josh Downs, basically echo the Reed comment, he's the starting slot and has a solid role.

Michael Wilson now this one is interesting, he's a starter, albeit on a pretty bad team but he has had solid production so far.

That's the first 3 rounds after that the guys are doing about what you'd expect of Day 3 WRs, some snaps here and there, specials etc. Unless you're Puka Nacua.

It's crazy how good Puka has been.

Megatron96 10-03-2023 02:34 PM

Not to burst anyone’s bubble, bland I like what we’re seeing from Rice in his limited snaps so far, but he’s struggling against man. Went 0-fer vs. man coverage last night.

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla (Post 17146157)
It's crazy how good Puka has been.

It's because of him though, apparently Stafford and Kupp do this thing where they have breakfast together and go over film/strategy etc...Nacua asked to join them basically as soon as he got there.

Stuff like that really helps a dude become a top player.

Pitt Gorilla 10-03-2023 02:37 PM

Honestly, it would be really cool if someone did an All22 breakdown of our receivers. I'm not asking anyone here to do it, but if one of the podcast, talking heads, or Keysor did it, that would be awesome.

RunKC 10-03-2023 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca (Post 17146130)
Actually...Nacua is good, TuTu Atwell has a role and Kupp is a top 5 WR....that is not a bad room, Van Jefferson basically shit his pants when given a chance though.

They're literally force feeding him. Guy has 52 targets. He's on pace to shatter the record for most targets in a season

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC (Post 17146186)
They're literally force feeding him. Guy has 52 targets. He's on pace to shatter the record for most targets in a season

That team also force fed Cooper Kupp the ball...the offense has roles and that WR role gets the ball.

As soon as Kupp returns and Nacua slides into the Woods role he will still be productive just not as productive as he is now.

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan (Post 17146098)
So I played Basketball as a kid, not football.

My serious question:

Why do so many NFL players seem to have problems with uncontested drops that stabilize after a couple of years.

I couldn't get consistent playing time on the High School varsity team.

I'm not sure I'm qualified to speak to the problems faced by an uptick in competition...

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla (Post 17146157)
It's crazy how good Puka has been.

Draft traits - hope you get lucky.

Rice has 'em. Moore don't.

One's a good pick in the 2nd round; the other probably should've gone late 3rd, early 4th.

Win some, lose some.

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 17146201)
Draft traits - hope you get lucky.

Rice has 'em. Moore don't.

One's a good pick in the 2nd round; the other probably should've gone late 3rd, early 4th.

Win some, lose some.

Moore is a guy who is supposed to have a feel for the game and so far he does not.

Chris Meck 10-03-2023 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 17145732)
Which would obviously beg the question - why is Rice seemingly behind Moore and Watson as the guy in a timeshare with Toney while those two are getting significantly more snaps despite being clearly less productive?

Watson I understand because the big-play potential and reliability. Frustrating as it is, he's oftentimes been our most critical WR to this point.

But Moore? In what world should Rice be behind Moore on the depth chart. Because that's clearly how he's being used at the moment - a backup Z rather than a starting X.

While Moore is getting an unchallenged starter's snap share.

That's just...wrong, IMO.

Year two in the offense is why.

Now, I agree that Moore isn't showing anything, and doesn't seem to be on the same page as Mahomes, so perhaps it's time to put more on Rice's plate. I'm sure that's going to be happening unless the lightbulb goes on for Moore really quickly.

And then maybe we some more of Ross, too.

But I understand wanting to give the high investment guys all of the rope.

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca (Post 17146206)
Moore is a guy who is supposed to have a feel for the game and so far he does not.

'Feel for the game' is like saying "Bryce Young has excellent poise".

It's what you say when someone doesn't have the necessary talent to justify the capital you spent acquiring them.

Remember when Patrick Mahomes problem was that he didn't understand how to run a pro style offense and his gunslinger style would create problems because he lacked a feel for how a pro offense would work?

It's dumb.

O.city 10-03-2023 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 17146208)
Year two in the offense is why.

Now, I agree that Moore isn't showing anything, and doesn't seem to be on the same page as Mahomes, so perhaps it's time to put more on Rice's plate. I'm sure that's going to be happening unless the lightbulb goes on for Moore really quickly.

And then maybe we some more of Ross, too.

But I understand wanting to give the high investment guys all of the rope.

I....actually think the best guys in the league now are going the other way with it.

Sunk cost fallacy and all.

Mecca 10-03-2023 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 17146212)
'Feel for the game' is like saying "Bryce Young has excellent poise".

It's what you say when someone doesn't have the necessary talent to justify the capital you spent acquiring them.

Remember when Patrick Mahomes problem was that he didn't understand how to run a pro style offense and his gunslinger style would create problems because he lacked a feel for how a pro offense would work?

It's dumb.

And that is fair too, I've never truly understood teams who avoid the major talents because "oh he's a jerk"

DJ's left nut 10-03-2023 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 17146208)
Year two in the offense is why.

Now, I agree that Moore isn't showing anything, and doesn't seem to be on the same page as Mahomes, so perhaps it's time to put more on Rice's plate. I'm sure that's going to be happening unless the lightbulb goes on for Moore really quickly.

And then maybe we some more of Ross, too.

But I understand wanting to give the high investment guys all of the rope.

I think you're mostly correct here and I'm being perhaps a hair impatient.

But g'damn, it's just such a night and day difference and we feel awfully close most drives to unlocking some real production. In games where a single play can change a drive and lead to points, and 2 drives that turn to points in any given game will likely change the outcome - man it seems odd that we're not putting a guy out there more who so clearly seems capable of making that single play in a couple different drives.

dlphg9 10-03-2023 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megatron96 (Post 17146161)
Not to burst anyone’s bubble, bland I like what we’re seeing from Rice in his limited snaps so far, but he’s struggling against man. Went 0-fer vs. man coverage last night.

I think he's 0-5 vs man is what I saw in a thread. I don't really think the sample size is enough to say anything at all. It damn sure ain't enough to burst my bubble about his potential. Keep trying though, bud, I'm sure you'll get something to turn us all doom and gloom soon!


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