Hahaha, what the hell? Let's pretend I'm not using your suggested parameters of what a "big risk" entails, how about that?
My implied version of a "big risk" is shall we say less reckless than trying to light a smoke off the exhaust plume of my aircraft.
Let's try this instead: when I was a kid for a few years I raced downhill (skiiing) in NASTAR (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASTAR).
In that discipline there were basically three different 'lines' one could take on any given course. There was a fast line, a safe line, and a compromise line, which was basically between the two. The fast line was the riskiest, steepest line, but would get you across the finish line in the shortest time IF you could stay on your skis all the way down. The problem was that the odds of staying on your skis and on your edges through the entire run on the fast line was always a low percentage route. Kind of skiing's version of a 60-yard Hail Mary pass.
In perfectly ideal conditions you might consider that line. But if the weather was bad, or the surface wasn't ideal, or whatever, you tended to ski closer to the safe line. That might be right on the compromise line, or it might be a little to the fast or slow side depending on the exact situation.
Now what I learned in the short time I competed was that if you wanted any real chance to win, you ignored the safe line almost completely. It was like it didn't exist. Instead the medium or compromise line was your 'safe' line. You skied as close to that fast line as you could and never skied slower than the compromise line. Otherwise you just had no chance to win.
So when I say taking a "big risk" what I'm really saying is aim for as close to that fast line as we can get without losing your edge.
Make sense?
Another example would be pool. I still play pool, though I'm not at the top of my game anymore. But I've played more than a half a million games since I started playing competitively, played in more than a thousand tournaments, and I still play a few local sanctioned tournaments, I just don't play to go to Vegas or Atlantic city or wherever, anymore. So of the things I could say I'm proficient or expert in performance-wise, 8- and 9-ball pool would be among them.
And what I know for a fact is that you can't win in the big tournaments unless you're willing,
and more importantly, comfortable taking risks. Some of those risks are just calculated risks of course, but if you want to win a regional qualifier (such as the Desert Classic here in AZ) or if you want to beat the best players in the country you have to be ready to
"go all in" every once in a while. Yes, you have to pick your spots; you can't just go all in on every shot or even every game, but there's always that moment in a game or in a match or whatever, when you can try to play conservative and hope to come out on top later, or you can just push all your chips in, so to say, and go for the win. But if you always pick the conservative play, I guarantee you'll never win the big money. That player always ends up some kind of runner-up.
P.S. Some dipstick will think I meant that I won the Desert Classic because of what I posted above. No, I never won the Desert Classic qualifier, but I have placed high enough to qualify for Vegas, which is all I meant.
Chris Jones - Making Him the Highest Paid Defender in the League
(https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=329758)