Based on what?

The argument to draft a LT in the first..

1) Franklin/McConkey

2) Legette


https://media.tenor.com/images/4134d...65db/tenor.gif

Supposedly, Arizona wants 3 first round picks for #4 pick

It is believed they plan to select Marvin Harrison Jr with that pick

Is that negotiable?

Would you do 2 first round picks? This years and next years 32 pick? In a heartbeat

I would laugh my ass off if the Broncos gave up 3 first rd picks for JJ McCarthy. Please God let that happen LMFAO

Dude, they probably wouldn't even take our next three 1sts.

There's a BIG difference when teams trade for 1sts from random teams, where there's legit upside for a fringe top 10 pick (teams like the Saints let's say), and KC.

As for WR. It's 100% clear to me that OT in 1, WR in 2 is best case scenario, if the board falls right. Even if you get the OT in 1 and there's some crazy run on WR in 2, we don't desperately NEED WR in the first 2 rounds.

Getting a guy in the 2nd works pretty nice since that guy only needs to come in and be a role player, not an alpha male, especially out of the gate. What they thought Skyy might be, and hopefully this time we get much closer to Rice than Skyy.

Not sure if anyone has access or not.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">��The Beast: 2024 NFL Draft Guide is now available!��<br><br>��Over 400 scouting reports<br>��NFL-verified testing for almost 2,000 prospects<br>��Year-round process - enjoy!<a href="https://t.co/UcrOOpHtpH">https://t.co/UcrOOpHtpH</a></p>&mdash; Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) <a href="https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1778022764449808532?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Here are Dane Brugler's top 25 WR rankings from The Beast. He's not a big fan of Worthy it seems.

1. MARVIN HARRISON JR. Ohio State 1st
2. MALIK NABERS LSU 1st
3. ROME ODUNZE Washington 1st
4. BRIAN THOMAS JR. LSU 1st
5. LADD MCCONKEY Georgia 1st-2nd
6. ADONAI MITCHELL Texas 1st-2nd
7. KEON COLEMAN Florida State 2nd
8. ROMAN WILSON Michigan 2nd
9. RICKY PEARSALL Florida 2nd-3rd
10. XAVIER WORTHY Texas 2nd-3rd
11. MALACHI CORLEY Western Kentucky 2nd-3rd
12. TROY FRANKLIN Oregon 2nd-3rd
13. JA’LYNN POLK Washington 3rd
14. XAVIER LEGETTE South Carolina 3rd
15. MALIK WASHINGTON Virginia 3rd
16. DEVONTEZ WALKER North Carolina 3rd-4th
17. JERMAINE BURTON Alabama 3rd-4th
18. BRENDEN RICE USC 3rd-4th
19. JALEN MCMILLAN Washington 3rd-4th
20. JAVON BAKER UCF 4th
21. JACOB COWING Arizona 4th
22. JOHNNY WILSON Florida State 4th-5th
23. JHA’QUAN JACKSON Tulane 5th
24. ANTHONY GOULD Oregon State 5th
25. LUKE MCCAFFREY Rice 5th

I wonder if the league sees Mckonkey, Pearsall and Roman Wilson that high?

I think there's a really good chance we take McConkey at 32.

He’s the most well rounded WR after the top 4 and has a very high floor and solid ceiling. The guys footwork is insane. He’d be an impact player day 1 here

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ladd McConkey pro day 😮*💨😮*💨😮*💨 <a href="https://t.co/lxRJ7S5UDq">pic.twitter.com/lxRJ7S5UDq</a></p>&mdash; ZIM (@zimwhodey) <a href="https://twitter.com/zimwhodey/status/1776561769265168666?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 6, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

First round WR % of success in drafting

It's crazy how similar he is to Olave and Wilson in terms of size and measurables.

Here’s an article from the athletic that goes with the image above

13 years of data, reviewed
For every Ja'Marr Chase, how many Kevin Whites are there? I charted 13 years of data to find the hit rate of first-round WRs in the NFL. It's similar to how I charted top-10 QBs, but the hit rate is lower than I expected here.

This year, three WRs are considered top-10 picks — Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze — and six are in the top 32 of The Athletic's consensus draft rankings.

More on those three prospects below, but first, let's look at the hit rates of every first-round WR since 2011.

To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria:
Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games?
Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons?
No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season?
Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option?
Players were sorted into four categories: Stars hit all four criteria, starters satisfied at least two, a reach hit at least one and busts satisfied none. Anyone with fewer than four seasons saw their numbers projected. You can find other notes on the process here.

The numbers were worse than I expected:

The data said ...
Drafting a first-round WR is hard, and the hit rate here is historically lower than other positions. There's a 63 percent chance of drafting a bust or a reach. Think of a reach as a serviceable starter who should've been drafted three rounds later, like Tavon Austin (No. 8 in 2013, 21 spots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins) or Mike Williams (No. 7 in 2017).

Your first-round WR typically busts. Out of every three WRs drafted, one has been a bust, like Jalen Reagor, infamously drafted by the Eagles in 2020 at pick No. 21 — one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson.

The odds of landing a superstar are low. Less than one of every five WRs drafted in the first-round hit each criteria. The No. 27 pick in 2013, DeAndre Hopkins, checked every box, as has 2018's No. 24, D.J. Moore.

The good news? Drafting a WR in the top 10 made teams more likely to at least land a star, like Calvin Ridley (No. 26 in 2018).

The bad news? The historical hit rate for a top-10 WR is barely over 50 percent (52.9).


Every first-round WR is fighting the odds, even the top-10 picks. With six players at this position worthy of first-round selection this year, the bust/reach rate of 63 percent makes it likely that three or four of them disappoint.