This is what all the naysayers said last year when I predicted Mahomes would put up numbers similar to Marino's second year. Mahomes surpassed it.

You can predict a 30% drop off in production all you want but I will never doubt Mahomes or underestimate him again.

Your prediction looks even worse when you factor in (hypothetically) that the new defense is going to get off the field more, giving the Offense more chances to score. So it turns into a 40% less production year for Mahomes.

Not going to happen.

Did you have a stroke there? Blink twice if you need help.

Exactly, and what happened. Teams immediately shut down the run and Mahomes was throwing again to squeak out a win.

LMAO

You okay, Run?

I get not doubting Mahomes or underestimating him. You also can't overestimate things either. If the defense does their job, the pace of the game is going to slow. So while the offense might theoretically get more chances, they're also not getting into shootouts that necessitate throwing the ball downfield as much.

When I said 35 TDs, I was being extremely conservative. He might throw 40 or even a few more. Even if he "only" threw 35, again that would likely lead the league many years.

If the defense improves, he's not going to throw 50 again. That's the point.

Well, it's a pretty high risk, ballsy plan. You basically gut the only strength there was on defense. You just have to make sure you're replacing it; and I think you can, but there are a lot of moving parts and you have to get it right.

Although I would argue that planning on Dee Ford, Justin Houston, and Eric Berry to all be healthy and play up to their contracts is pretty foolish. AND Houston doesn't really have a position in base that is a fit for his salary due to the responsibilities of a SAM. Berry's probably played his last meaningful football. And Ford is an injury risk and a liability against the run.

So it happened once, which means it is going to happen every time now? You sound like my kids. :)

exactly. he won't throw 50 because he won't have to. And your team rushing statistics will go up by a lot; probably quite a few more rushing TD's too.

Unless we start blowing people out like Denver and NE did when their QBs had their best years.

Houston would work out better as a rush end than Ford would in a reduced front scheme. I dont see Houston playing sam realistcally. If Ford ever had to reduce down because of a shift or something, he doesnt have the weight or strength to hold gap integrity.

When other QB's have gone for 45 plus, they've blown people out.

The Chiefs could do that next year if the defense improves, but i'd think if he's somewhere around 35 40 that's an awesome eyar.

People don't quite realize how unreal this season of 5k and 50 tds were.

I expect Mahomes to be a perennial 35+TDs per season player but next season should be another 40+ TDs as all the main offensive players will still be in their prime.

After that, the likes of Schwartz, Fisher, Kelce (Watkins gone in two years) could be declining and that's when Mahomes might slow down some seasons.

I think your premise is flawed. Mahomes threw 6 TD's in a game twice- Steelers and Rams- only the Rams was a "shootout".

Mahomes threw 4 Td's in 5 games with only New England being a shootout.

So his production was not directly related to being in a shootout situation.

We also have a very tough schedule again- so even if the defense does improve, it will have to become dominant for us to be able to coast to wins all year.

back to defense-and I'm not sure what the plan is...but-
If you cut Houston...well, I think you have to. Right? I mean it doesn't make sense not to.

And you tag Ford to play him. You're keeping one of your premier pass rushers. You're transferring most of Houston's salary to Ford, essentially, with like $4 million left over.

You need a SAM, you need a veteran safety. You really should have an older veteran type DE for depth and rotational purposes. You need at least one CB.

You need to draft CB's, a S, and an Edge/DE. A corner may need to be a day one starter.

I think so too, but if Houston's really not going to restructure, then you just can't pay him $21 million. You just can't.

I like him better than Ford as I think he's a much more complete player, but I don't see how it happens.