If that's the case then even $25mil a year is too much for him. If Superbowl odds don't change if you lose him, why would you even pay that much?

I want a tougher path to the SB!

Because when Chris Jones gets injured, the fundamental nature of the defensive strategy will change. A new player will be the best player on defense. And that new defense - and it's fundamental nature - will still be capable of winning the super bowl.

By this stream of logic, surely you’d agree that the Chiefs SB chances wouldn’t change if they lost Kelce?

Can you imagine paying a defensive player the second most of any in the sport if his absence didn’t impact your odds of winning a championship?

Yea, I'm guessing a package of a 2nd and 3rd or 4th at best, but there are dumb GMs out there. However, I will be shocked if Jones doesn't sign and lock in the guaranteed dollars this week.

That right there is the entire reason why he's not in camp yet. Because there is a mathematical threshold where investing more money in a player who you can win without becomes unsound.

It isn't about losing Chris Jones' level of play. It's about losing the opportunity cost that goes out the window with his cap hit. Guys think that cap number is something that happens in the front office and is never seen on the field.

Cap number is directly observable on the field. The Chiefs are $20M in the pot already on Jones for this year. Him not playing is sunk opportunity cost, and you can't get that back.

The question now is how much more you're willing to chase that, thus further exposing yourself to future lost opportunity.

But the idea that the team can't withstand Jones not playing is laughable. Does it make it harder? Almost certainly. But this team lives and dies with Mahomes, and no one else.

man, I don't know...

Because that's what the Jets did. In fact, their odds went from +1600 in june to +1700 now.

You are starting to catch on... In any year we have a chance with a healthy Mahomes. If we overpay for Jones, that's hurts our chances down the road as much as losing Jones may hurt our chances in the short run. To have sustained success, you don't pay aging players top of market. The Patriots gave us the blueprint for when you have one of the GOAT QBs. $27 mil per on a 4 year deal with $70 guaranteed should do it...

....what?


So the chiefs should have never even engaged in contract talks with Chris Jones right? I mean, according to your logic, they can easily replace him and his production.

not what is being said

You don't think Chris Jones has at least 3 elite/great years left in him?

You're saying that losing Jones doesn't change our Superbowl odds and that if he got injured, we would be able to fundamentally change the defense on the fly and still win.

How do you do that if it isn't easy to replace his production and what he brings to the team?

easy things aren't the only possible things

absolutely not...

Reports say Chris is asking for $31.5 per... We should be at the most $26-27 per. That extra $4.5 mill a year absolutely effects your roster and if you can't get there, you have $26 or $27 mil to sign others, and try the best you can to replace some of Jones production. Salary cap sucks. The Steelers never had to decide between Franco Harris, Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, or Mean Joe Greene....

I actually don't..

His best years of his career are far away when he wanted a new contract...also if you do a breakdown of DT's less than 10% continued to be elite after the age of 29...one of the most prominent was John Randle who was honestly more productive than Jones before 30.

Well the hope is you can tag and trade him after the year so you can use FA and the draft to get younger and replace some of that production.

Are you seriously this dense?

Their SB odds didn’t change when they signed a guy to a long-term deal who was already expected to be on their team that year.

Are you on drugs or something with these takes?

Can the Chiefs win a SB without Chris Jones because they have Mahomes? Yes.

Is it as easy to just say we’ll spend the money elsewhere and replace Jones and have the same odds of winning the SB? No. Because he’s a known entity who generates elite production. Yeah, maybe Veach can replace him with youth and spend the money elsewhere and we wind up a better holistic team. Or, maybe they use the CJ money to sign someone like Frank Clark who dramatically underperforms his contract and that sets us back a few years.

No one is saying we’re doomed if we lose Chris Jones. But if they were forced to trade him right now to the Bears for picks in next year’s draft, yeah, I think it’s safe to say our SB odds would fall quite a bit.

We need Jones to go 20-0. Good thing he will be here this year regardless of a new deal.

He wouldn't be traded now, it'd be after the year.

Actually, I would…and I’m a huge fan of both Creed and Bolton.

but that's exactly what O City is saying, and why I called him out. That's the ONLY thing I'm debating.

It's a coinflip... I am fine paying him $2 million more per than the 3rd highest paid DT, but paying him Aaron Donald $ is what bad franchises do...

The Bengals don't have a single all-pro on their defense and yet there they are still one of the best. I'd imagine losing Chris would put us in a similar situation.

The Chiefs defense has solid talent everywhere and finally at DL.

For years the Chiefs put limited talent next to Chris. Frank Clark apparently sucks, Alex Okafor wasn't good, Melvin Ingram and Terrell Suggs were old. Hell Kpass and Speaks didn't cut it all all. I like Mike Danna but he is a great off the bench role player but not a true starter.

The Chiefs didn't truly invest in the DL until recently. That's a big reason why it was "Chris Jones is all we have!"....well he kinda was.

We won't be forced to do anything with Jones. We lose him as a great play if he doesn't report, but he loses way more financially. This is all moot as he will sign or report by Sunday...

Yes, I get that. I'm just giving you an extreme situation.

No one is going to assume that the Chiefs are going to be as good next year on defense if they lose Chris Jones. Might it make them a better team over the next several years as with the Tyreek trade? Sure.

I'm only arguing the notion that our SB odds would be unchanged. CJ is an elite talent. I have no problem paying the guy 25-27mm a year because I think that's the right vicinity for him. If he's trying to squeeze 29-30mm, then I can respect Veach's deciding to go in a different direction.

Jones will sign a deal in the range between Donald and the second highest paid DT. That’s what he’s said all along. These things take time and this is all posturing. He’s not going to sit out regular season games and I couldn’t care less about him being at camp or playing in the PS.

That result benefits both sides.

That's all fine as long as he's keeping his body conditioned. Otherwise, he's probably increasing his exposure to injury risk.

To much money on the line for CJ to hold out all season so he'll play on his current deal if they can't come to an agreement on a new contract. In one way that could work to our advantage. CJ will essentially be playing in a contract year looking to cash in the following season. That should have him motivated and a little peeved where he destroys worlds.

Obviously the guy is staying in top top shape. He’s trying to get a mega deal and his physical shape hasn’t ever been a problem.

Dudes a game wrecker that will be a Chief for life.

There is a definite "Chris Jones is as important to the team as Patrick Mahomes is" crowd.

It's laughably stupid, but it is out there being said. So that camp believes that we wouldn't have won the Superbowl without Chris last year as the defense surrendered 35 points and registered one sack by the guy who plays for the Saints now, and go on to say that we cannot win the superbowl this year or any other year without Jones, despite having an undefeated record in games he has missed, including the 24-0 playoff comeback against Houston the CJ95 enjoyed in his street clothes.

Chris, like Tyreek before him, is a luxury we simply cant pay the asking price on. The sky was falling when Hill left and in a rebuild year we won it all.

You'll see a similar result if and when Jones is moved as well.

Just about everything you wrote is wrong.

When he says between Donald and the #2 DT, is it right down the middle? Or is it closer to Donald than DT #2? If he's making $500K-$1 Million less than Donald, then while technically less, it's still pretty darn close.

The Chiefs need him to win a SB this year.

Could they win it without him? Sure.

Is it alot harder? Yes.

THat's what I'm arguing. Taking Chris JOnes off this defense makes it alot harder for everyone else in the front 7.

There's no argument for equal value to a HOF QB.

THere's an argument that without CJ last year, we aren't playing in the actual SB.

Well, I'd guess the Chiefs at this point in time, know that they can't trade Chris Jones and have a defense as good as they would like it to be. THey also know that his number next year contractually can't be 33.5 million dollars on the cap. They also aren't in the business of letting him walk with no value coming back I'd imagine.

So yeah, he has some leverage here.

They should have traded him before this seasons draft if that was the plan.

Oh my. Didn't Jones have the game sealing sack on Burrow in the AFCCG? If he does not, is it certain that KC wins that game? If not then there is a chance we do not win the SB without him as we don't even make it.

Also comparing Jones to Tyreek is silly. Not same positions nor impact. Mahomes offsets a lot on offense, who on defense offsets the impact of Jones? As great as Mahomes is, he can only do so much.

They can offset the impact of a Jones trade next offseason.

My argument is you can't do that right now.

All indications thus far are he wants $30mm, which is basically just under Donald money.

He's under no obligation to blink and sign a deal right now.

I hope so. He is an elite DT that has to be accounted for. If he's gone, who steps up in that role?

So? He got big money to his job and he did it. That's the past.

Can you quote one post where someone said Chris Jones is anywhere near as important as Mahomes?

Exactly. Literally nobody has said that.

Can we be honest, Year 8 is when the clock is really ticking for Defensive Linemen. Some sharply decline and by year 10 most are done or in decline. There are not many outliers that have been successful consistently after year ten. If Chris Jones isn't going to sign with us unless he is breaking the bank, then trade him to someone that will next year.

I read an interesting article about when players decline here is a quote from it:

After a defensive lineman's seventh year in the NFL, his time is very, very short. Look at the huge drop-off in qualifying starters from year seven to year eight, and from year nine to year 10. The decline flattens for a while, as the best defensive linemen can stick around a very long time, but the quick development, long plateau and quick decline is obvious.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...to-nfl-players

we can't win a superbowl without chris jones

Again, if you're in the belief that our Superbowl chances don't change with or without him, then you shouldn't want to re-sign him at all. Should have traded him earlier in the off-season and got cheaper/younger since apparently, whoever is playing that position doesn't change the teams outcome at all.

Would you rather have the following:

1) A possibly disgruntled and more injury prone (due to his holdout and resulting lack of camp reps) Chris Jones and $.5M in cap space or

2) Several premium picks, maybe a developmental player back, and $12M in cap space, with which the Chiefs could sign Dunlap (like 1/$4M), a vet DT for like $3M, and $5M more in case of an in-season injury. Plus flip CEH or a pick for a developmental 3-tech.

Im in the second camp at this point.

Malcontent LMAO

And I'll take the elite DT who was the best at his position last year and is the heart beat and energy of the defense.

Yes, these things take time but will work out. Just like Hill and Orlando Brown contract took time to work themselves out because both sides were just posturing and of course wanted to get a fair deal done to stay on a SB contender.

If Kelce went down with a torn Achilles next week, I'd comfortably argue we're not going to win a Super Bowl this season.

That doesn't mean that Kelce is as important as Mahomes.

Y'all are being disingenuous by equating the 2 things.

Bengals have the best DC in the league. They do a good job finding guys for cheap that seem to get the job done within Lou's scheme. Cincy has not given up more than 24 points in any playoff game the last 2 seasons. The Chiefs defense (with Jones) gave up 36 to Buffalo and 35 to Philly.

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Bad juju, yo.

I edited my post to more clearly reflect my opinion.

Khalen Saunders got 3 years 12 million from the Saints.

Really wish we could have done that deal right about now. Would have gladly sacrificed signing Tranquil for that

Hindsight is 50/50.

Correct. Is there any remote possibility that he might in the future impact an important game? Still the most important part of the defense and someone that has to be accounted for. Also he is still not even remotely close to Tyreek.

Saying that he's not a major reason why KC won a SB is silly.

Lotta holes in argument 2.

1. KC does not appear to want to give Jones what he is asking primarily due to age. You think another team is going to give up premium picks for the right to give him that? I don't. Chicago might have the cap space, but that doesn't mean they want to blow it for the sake of blowing it.

2. Jones is an elite pass rusher at the DT spot. Not many of those in the league at his position. Pass rushers aren't cheap for a reason. You can't just plug and play and replace their production.

3. No one wants CEH and even the dumber GMs know that in all likelihood this is his final season in KC. Why give up anything for him? RBs are already being devalued, so what team does he move the needle for that would be willing to give up a developmental DT for?

Not saying give in to Jones' demands, just I think his value to the defense is more than some might think. Here's hoping the two sides come to a reasonable agreement.

message to Chris, sign the frekin deal
dont squab over a couple million...

Has SR messaged Brad veatch yet?

Not sure why ppl are scared of a 33m tag when Aaron Donald is getting paid 32M for many years. Chiefs are in an ideal situation with Jones. You can have him play his contract out this year. Tag him next year, then let him walk at age 32 where he will begin to decline and when Kelce will be 36. Then we reload. Just tell him thats what you are going to do. Cant sit out fot 2 years and give up 50M, Chris. Chiefs should have all the leverage in the world. Dont be afraid to use it.

The franchise tag was agreed upon by the players union. Use it. Just the threat to use it should help you negotiate down a Chris Jones contract extension. Chiefs hold the cards unless they act like Dayton Moore.

salary cap bro

They can always figure it out. Rearrange contracts. Just hire this guy.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/da6e4...rmat&fit=crop&

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016...erJumbo-v2.jpg

You do realize Reid has made it crystal clear they were shocked Jones didn't show up for camp right? What does that tell you?

It sure doesn't sound like his agent let them know where this was headed.

Whether we sign Chris Jones or not, we all can agree that he's not gonna be worth a long term $30 million APY deal. That just doesn't happen very often. It's rare.

The question is how long is Chris gonna be Chris, bc history suggests he's nearing the end of his prime and about to enter the decline. A decline for Chris is still a good pass rushing DT, but that would not be worth such a massive cap hit.

It's gonna come down to structure more than anything which is why I hope if they get it done, they could do it now while he's still 29.

I don't think we should give him a contract that doesn't have an out after his age 31 season.

That’s different than not knowing what numbers he was thinking.

Oh I agree that he's not worth $30 million a year at his age, but he still should have 2-4 years of elite, or at least very good play left in him. I think the structure is what will matter the most. Even at four years we could move on from him when he is 33.

The AD deal is shit and they are stuck with over 60 mil in cap hits for 2 more years on a 32 year that will be 34 getting that cap hit. Jones is 30 next July and not worth a 30 mil cap hit.

Bears have the money and two 1st round picks next year. Theirs and the Panthers.

Send them Jones and our 1st for their two 1st, and a condition where the Bears get Jones and the lowest of the three 1st rounders (should be ours, but you never know), and we get the two highest.

Over the Cap says we would free up 21.25 million for this season. Sign a couple of guys off of the scrap heap for this year. Suh and Dunlap maybe.

This is the last year before the cap skyrockets.

CJ is worth 27-29m per, as long as there are outs after the 3rd year of the deal.

Agreed. Get him in ASAP.

Why would Chicago do this? Especially with Poles as their GM who learned from Veach?

Listen boys. Chris Jones’ fate is to wreck Quarterbacks and Vaginas. He will also play football for KC.

Because they have a starting QB under the rookie wage.

Yep that Panthers pick looks pretty solid at this point. Would think that alone would be more valuable to a rebuilder.

One of the greatest defensive players of all time has ONE down year due to injury and that means his deal is crap LMAO

I'm sure Pat and Travis would love trading the best defensive player a month before the season starts and going to the scrap heap right in the middle of a SB window.

I was referring to his age. They gave him insane money after the SB.

Or they would prefer he honor his contract and play for the 20 mil he agreed to.