The Ravens are saying all the right things about how their sole focus is on Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Still, it would be understandable if some members of the organization were looking ahead.
Sunday’s regular-season finale at M&T Bank Stadium means plenty for the Steelers, who need a win and a Tennessee Titans loss at Houston to make the playoffs. But it means very little for the Ravens. They are locked in as the AFC’s top seed, and nothing that happens Sunday will change that. That’s why Ravens coach John Harbaugh has committed to sitting a handful of his front-line players, hoping to keep his team as healthy as possible heading into the postseason.
Harbaugh has already said quarterback Lamar Jackson, running back Mark Ingram, right guard Marshal Yanda, nose tackle Brandon Williams and safety Earl Thomas won’t play against the Steelers. It won’t be surprising if a handful of other veterans are held out as well.
The Ravens will open the playoffs at M&T Bank Stadium on either Jan. 11 or 12 against an opponent to be determined. With that in mind, let’s look at the rest of the AFC playoff field in order of the most difficult to the most favorable matchups for the Ravens (13-2).
1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)
Recent history: The Chiefs beat the Ravens, 33-28, at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 3.
Likelihood of playing Ravens: If the Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, they’ll clinch the No. 3 seed and a first-round playoff matchup with the final wild-card team, likely either Pittsburgh or Tennessee. The Chiefs then wouldn’t see the Ravens until the AFC championship game. The only way the Ravens could see the Chiefs in the divisional round is if Kansas City loses Sunday and the Texans win. That would leave the Chiefs as the fourth seed and a potential divisional-round opponent for Baltimore.
Biggest challenge: There are several reasons why the Chiefs are viewed as the scariest opponent for the Ravens. One, they have beaten the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens twice in the past 13 months. Two, the Chiefs have the brilliant Patrick Mahomes and an offense that can outscore teams and strike quickly. Three, Kansas City’s defense is much improved and has gone five consecutive games without allowing more than 16 points. There is a segment of the Ravens’ fan base that seems to want the Chiefs and an opportunity to avenge those past two losses. Perhaps, some Ravens players and coaches feel the same way, but it’s tough not to project the Chiefs as Baltimore’s most difficult potential AFC matchup.
In the Ravens’ favor: The Ravens’ losses this year and last year to the Chiefs were both at Arrowhead, and this time they’d get them on their home field. Kansas City has the league’s seventh-worst run defense. When the Ravens committed to the run in Week 3, the Chiefs struggled to stop them. With Jimmy Smith healthy, Marcus Peters in the fold and Chuck Clark occupying a front-line role, the Ravens secondary is much better than it was in Week 3, when Mahomes torched the group for 374 yards passing and three touchdowns.
2. New England Patriots (12-3)
Recent history: The Ravens beat the then-undefeated Patriots 37-20 at M&T Bank Stadium on Nov. 3.
Likelihood of playing Ravens: With a victory Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots would clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. That would mean the Ravens and Patriots couldn’t renew their playoff rivalry until the AFC championship game.
Biggest challenge: The Patriots have arguably the greatest coach and the greatest quarterback in NFL history, and Bill Belichick and Tom Brady usually find a way in January. There were some pundits who opined that Belichick didn’t show the Ravens much defensively in November, because he knew he’d face them again in the playoffs. Who knows if that’s true, but Belichick has authored plenty of postseason game plans in the past that have shut down high-powered offenses. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in the league and their offense showed some signs of improvement last week against Buffalo.
In the Ravens’ favor: The Ravens looked like the faster and more physical team on both sides of the ball when the two met in November. The only reason the game was close was the Ravens turned the ball over twice in their territory. New England’s offense has struggled for much of the year, ranking 16th in total yards per game and 19th in rushing yards per game. The Ravens are one of the only teams to have any postseason success versus the Patriots, beating them in both the 2009 and 2012 seasons. They’re not impacted by the Patriots’ mystique.
3. Buffalo Bills (10-5)
Recent history: The Ravens went to New Era Field 2 ½ weeks ago and beat the Bills, 24-17, in a game they led 24-9 about midway through the fourth quarter.
Likelihood of playing the Ravens: The upstart Bills have secured the No. 5 seed and first wild-card spot, making them as good of a candidate as any to be the Ravens’ opponent in the divisional round. The Bills will first have to win on the road, potentially at Houston, in the wild-card round to advance to Baltimore.
Biggest challenge: As the Ravens learned on Dec. 8, the Bills are a physical opponent with a very good defense. The Ravens rushed for 118 yards against Buffalo, their lowest total of the season. While Josh Allen isn’t as dynamic as Lamar Jackson, the Bills can dictate the tempo and control the ball offensively with their Devin Singletary-led run game. Buffalo had receivers get free in the Ravens secondary in the earlier meeting, but Allen wasn’t able to connect. Buffalo’s physical style and quality defense figures to make the Bills a tough out in January.
In the Ravens’ favor: The Ravens overwhelmed the Bills upfront, sacking Allen six times and hitting him 12 times in the earlier meeting. The Ravens’ aggressiveness and in-depth defensive schemes seemed to bother Allen, who missed several big-play opportunities throughout the game. Allen has shown significant improvement, but he’s not in the same class as other potential AFC quarterback opponents, like Brady, Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The Bills have a few quality wins, but they lack that signature win against an AFC elite team.
4. Houston Texans (10-5)
Recent history: In one of their most dominant performances of the season, the Ravens beat the Texans 41-7 on Nov. 17 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Likelihood of playing the Ravens: A lot can still happen from a seeding perspective. However, barring no significant upsets Sunday, the Texans will likely finish with the fourth seed and play the Bills in the first round. The winner of that game would then be a potential Ravens’ opponent in the divisional round.
Biggest challenge: The Texans couldn’t do anything right in the November matchup in Baltimore, but they stand to make a couple of huge upgrades from a personnel standpoint. Star defensive end J.J. Watt is expected to return from a torn pectoral muscle in time for the playoffs and the Texans also could get back explosive wide receiver Will Fuller, who wasn’t able to go against the Ravens. The Texans also have one of the NFL’s most dynamic quarterbacks in Watson. He looked confused and overwhelmed in his last appearance at M&T Bank Stadium, but he’s too good to play like that again.
In the Ravens’ favor: For much of that first meeting, it was a total mismatch. Would a few Texans’ roster additions make up the 34-point difference? Houston’s defense has not been good, ranking 27th in yards allowed per game. The Texans are better against the run than the pass, but the Ravens gouged them for 263 yards on the ground in Week 11. The Texans’ history in the playoffs under Bill O’Brien is pretty underwhelming. Houston has also been prone to a few head-scratching performances.
5. Tennessee Titans (8-7)
Recent history: The Titans and the Raiders are the only two teams still involved in the AFC playoff picture that the Ravens did not play this year.
Likelihood of playing the Ravens: Tennessee still has some work to do to qualify for the postseason. They need to beat the Texans on Sunday afternoon to punch their ticket. And then to earn the trip to Baltimore, they’ll have to upset their first-round opponent, which figures to be either Kansas City or New England.
Biggest challenge: The Titans have been pretty mercurial this year, but they’ve shown an ability to play with and beat anybody over the past two years. They dealt the Chiefs their last loss and they jumped out to a nice lead before falling to the New Orleans Saints last Sunday. The insertion of veteran Ryan Tannehill at quarterback has made a big difference and running back Derrick Henry is the type of tone setter teams need in January.
In the Ravens’ favor: Dean Pees’ defense has been good at times, but it’s certainly not a shutdown type of group. The Ravens should be able to move the ball against them. Unlike many of the Ravens potential AFC playoff opponents, the Titans also haven’t seen Jackson this year, which presents a definite challenge in trying to simulate the quarterback’s speed and athleticism. Tannehill has played well, but can he beat a quality defense in January if Henry is held in check?
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
Recent history: The Ravens beat the Steelers, 26-23, in overtime in Week 5, a game that started their 11-game winning streak.
Likelihood of playing the Ravens: As mentioned above, the Steelers need help to get to the playoffs. They need to beat the Ravens on Sunday and they need the Titans to lose at Houston. Then they would have to upset the third seed, potentially Kansas City, in the wild-card round to earn a trip back to Baltimore.
Biggest challenge: Pittsburgh is very good defensively at every level. The Steelers have the personnel to get to Jackson, slow down the Ravens’ run game and then shut down their passing attack. They are giving up the fourth-fewest points per game and they also are tied for the most forced turnovers in the league. That includes three of Jackson’s six interceptions. The Ravens and Steelers always play close games, and that in itself would make them a scary early round playoff opponent.
In the Ravens’ favor: The Steelers offense has been a mess. They haven’t been able to run the ball consistently, and in recent weeks, quarterback Devlin Hodges has struggled to throw the ball to the right team. If the Ravens offense with Jackson at the helm has even a decent day and takes care of the football, it’s hard to see the Steelers scoring enough points to keep pace. Pittsburgh also would be encountering a well-rested Ravens team in two weeks.
7. Oakland Raiders (7-8)
Recent history: The Ravens and Raiders have not played this season.
Likelihood of playing the Ravens: To make it to the playoffs, the Raiders not only have to beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday, but they also need the Steelers and Titans to lose, and the Indianapolis Colts to win. Then, they’d have to pull off an upset on the road in the wild-card round over the third seed to advance to Baltimore.
Biggest challenge: The Raiders’ playoff chances looked all but buried two weeks ago, so if they are still alive when the divisional round begins, they’ll certainly be playing with house money. The Raiders have a veteran quarterback in Derek Carr and a Super Bowl-winning coach in Jon Gruden, and they wouldn’t be in awe of the moment. They’ve also been able to move the ball at times, relying heavily on former Ravens tight end Darren Waller. Their defense has been pretty stout against the run.
In the Ravens’ favor: The Raiders don’t have too many players on either side of the ball who should threaten the Ravens. Their defense is in the bottom third of the league overall, and the Ravens shouldn’t have a problem setting the tone versus Oakland. The Raiders haven’t beaten a team all year that currently has a winning record, so presumably, they’d have a tough time matching up against one of the league’s elite teams, particularly on the road and after a cross-country trip.
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