Good post. Agreed.

Most aren't asking him to be Aaron Rodgers. The problem is when people justify extremely conservative qb play. If Alex Smith took a few more chances a game, he'd still be a conservative qb who keeps his ints down. Most would be fine with that version of Alex Smith.

:clap:

And this :clap:

Thanks for dumbing it down for the people who just can't comprehend it.

Nice post.

Well said. :clap:

And all of you idiots must be illiterate.

Read the ****ing article. It addresses exactly the point Anyong was trying to make.

That author's position is that for a safety to crowd the box, he essentially has to be within 10 yardsish of the LOS or be cheating that way at the snap. You don't have to throw it 40 yards downfield to keep him honest; a simple 20 yarder will accomplish that same thing.

That's why he classifies passes in the 20 yard range as deep passes - precisely because they do exactly what you militantly ignorant mouth-breathers are arguing for. A safety cannot crowd the box if he has to worry about as much as Kelce getting in behind him 18 yards downfield for a catch and run.

And again, Foles actually threw MORE passes near the line of scrimmage than Smith did in that game. You want to talk about plays that get safeties cheating up; an increased really short passes will absolutely do that. All Anyong is saying is read the goddamn article before you sit here saying that Foles is going to be backing safeties off more than Smith - there's a solid argument to be made that he actually won't be based on his small sample size here.

The guy's buying you books and you idiots are eating the pages and then patting each other other the back. Militantly ignorant isn't a good look.

Nice rant, would read again

LMAO

I don't care what kind of analysis gets posted or stats get posted, THE EYES say otherwise and see a significant difference when BIG STICK NICK is in.

Would read...

Except Foles has a larger sample size than a single game that he came in as a backup for. And this topic (and the ridiculous "fantasy football" responses) goes beyond one game and beyond Foles.

Sit back and enjoy watching BIG DICK NICK slang dat dick..LOL!!!!!

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/...2/897/doom.jpg

Nick Foles career AYA (which takes into account depth of target): 7.1
Alex Smith AYA as a Chief: 7.2

I even included your hero's hottest stretch in Philly; the one that really elevated his AYA and is well in his rearview. That sample size of which you speak does NOTHING to indicate that he's going to be backing safeties off more than Smith.

Either you're using a single game or you're ignoring the actual results in favor of picking a 10 game sample in the middle of his career that there is little evidence he's capable of repeating.

Your 'sample size' doesn't support your argument.

That was ****ing awesome, hahahahahahaaaaa!!!!! :clap:

I go by what I see happen with an Arrowhead on the side of the helmet.

Besides, Smiff may have scrambled eggs for all we know. He could be tentative even when/if he comes back.

You know what also opens up running lanes? Those bubble screens you fellas hate so much. So do quick hitters out wide.

The entire concept behind the WCO is to keep the middle cleaner by forcing defensive backs to protect all the way to both boundaries. It makes guys crashing the line at risk of washing themselves out of the play entirely when the ball comes out fast to the outside. And if they cheat too close to the line at the LOS, they lose their angle of pursuit the moment the ball is in the air.

The way the Chiefs use the short passing game actually helps us in the running game because all four quadrants of the defensive zone has to be respected. DCs absolutely know this and they operate accordingly. There's a reason the Chiefs have actually been pretty damn successful running the ball since Smith got here and it isn't superior run blocking. Reid's scheme and Smith's operation of same isn't hurting the running game.

Foles AYA was over 10 last week according to ESPN

sample size.. and if Alex's was that high, the haters would simply point to that awful Indy defense that got worse when they lost Vontae Davis.


Foles did very well stepping in. No one would deny that. Most are just saying, way too soon to get carried away.m The hate for Alex is propelling this out of control.

So you're back to a single game instead of the 'increased sample size' argument now?

He had a good AYA last week. Smith had a great AYA the two prior weeks and was attacking downfield again this week until his brains were turned to eggs. But really, AYA isn't going to tell you much in a single game because 1 play can really skew it. AYA doesn't give you a good snapshot but it does give you a very good trend. Over large enough numbers, a few dropped passes (or hail mary's that Tyreke Hill and blown coverage bails you out on) even out.

The trends show them to be roughly even in how they attack downfield. And when you look at the actual single game process rather than results (i.e. examine the true depth of target on those throws), you get a very similar outcome.

Foles is extremely unlikely to have any discernible impact on the running game at all.

DJLN is killin it this football season folks.

I don't think people actually hate Smith, he's just boring to watch. I don't hate the guy nor do I wish injury on him. I just sit there Sunday watching the same thing over and over. Nothing worse when it's 3rd and 9 he throws 5 yards short. It's been years since we've had a QB that was exciting.

It's one ****ing game this weekend. This is Alex football team. People are excited to see an opportunity...

Next week. We're back to the new aged wobble launcher....

All of this

Here's my viewpoint on this. You can certainly call it cherry picking, but it's my opinion on the topic of Foles. His play in STL was the outlier. That Oline was terrible and the team was terrible on the offensive side of the ball. Gurley had to put up a herculean performance after contact to accomplish what he did.

And like I said in my first response, this goes beyond just Nick Foles. It's the larger discussion about Smith. Teams aren't threatened by his deep ball. And the Chiefs fans around here want to see more deep throws, not because "fantasy football" but because of the belief that it will open up all of the short game, not just the running game. If you disagree, that's fine. It doesn't change the fact that the people that respond with "hurr durr fantasy football" or think it's just about sexy plays are completely missing the point, probably intentionally.

Yeah, I don't often mean hate as in true hate. I know where you are at with this, and I do get it. His style of play is rarely exciting.. but if it produces a high win %, I think it's obnoxious to be disgruntled over it.

Smith is a good QB no doubt about it, but don't you get a little uneasy knowing he's our QB come playoff time? I just know we won't put up points with Smith at QB. We don't know what Foles can do in this system. It's just exciting to see what he can bring that Alex doesn't, if it's anything at all.

Alex Smith is Damon Huard 2.0


Same arguments here about Smith as there were with Huard...

Downfield big game 2.0 and his new horizontal wobble launcher...

And what about his final season in Philly after the league adjusted to Chip?

AYA of 6.3. TD/INT of 13/10.

Again - dink and dunk + turnovers.

You're not even cherry picking; you're going full-Clay and ignoring everything but the 10 game stretch you want to see. And remember how that 10 game stretch ended? With Foles throwing 33 passes for 195 yards to lose a home playoff game to a Saints team that wasn't as good as the Saints team that Smith beat by throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs in the playoffs for SF.

"Well....if we ignore his rookie year under Reid, his last year under Kelly and his season in STL...oh, and his playoff start...and his college career....he looks great!"

Tell me more about his sample size, JSP....

You can say all day that you HOPE Foles can make a big difference in our offense but there's really no rational basis for it. You'd have to ignore about 75% of what we have available to us in favor of focusing on the remaining 25%. I mean sometimes you hit on 17 and get a 4....I just wouldn't call it wise.

Place will be interesting if he shits his pants and the Jags pull it off

I don't understand why people think Andy Reid is going to change all of a sudden. I've posted this too many times, but Andy Reid has been a coach for 20 years in this league. He's never going to change. His offense is based around the short, horizontal passing game. It didn't matter if he had Alex Smith, or someone who could bomb it down the field like Mike Vick. He is going to throw a lot of screens, passes near the LOS, or short horizontal passes designed to get WRs in space. I don't expect Foles to look like Roethlisberger or Flacco Sunday, taking 15 shots down the field. He's going run Reid's offense, a bunch of horizontal passes with the occasional shot downfield. And Reid's had a ton of success doing it, but it's obviously not popular here. I don't think many of you will be able to be happy until Reid's gone.

Nope. What I get uneasy about are the injuries to the other high-priced players each postseason. THAT bugs the shit out of me.. and has been the true killer.

As for Foles, I am actually excited to see what he can do.

THE one thing of it that will suck is this.. if it is extremely temporary (one game) for him as QB1.. whether he plays wonderfully or horrifically won't matter.

All that we will read is "how amazing he is, and must be starting!" all week.. even though Andy probably won't agree.. so folks will hate and blame Smith all the more.

or

We will hear a million excuses as to why he struggled. All of the things once called "excuses!" for one QB will now be spewed out from every corner in defense of Foles.

the CP drama will be upon us.. one way or the other. :) or :facepalm:

Anything is possible with Reid

Yeah it sucks having a winning record every year and winning 15 out of 17! Miserable ****s.

Here meaning CP? Nah, it's just the few loudmouths that can't deal with a team that's 15-2 in its last 17 regular season wins, coming off the first playoff win since the 1993 season. "Throwing down field" is more important than wins for some.

Idiots, all.

Reid's here until he retires. Hunt has already stated that contract extensions have been discussed for Reid and Dorsey, as they should.

Eh, that's not true.

When he had Vick feeding the ball to Jackson and Maclin, he switched things up quite a bit. Vick was simply incapable of running a short passing offense (remember the 7 yard piss rockets he'd try to feed to Celek over the middle only to watch them fire past him or get batted down?).

Reid's a damn smart coach and did a good job to adjust to the personnel he had. And if it turns out that Foles is here for awhile and isn't capable of running the short passing game as well as Smith, I expect Reid will tailor the offense to Foles strengths. I think Reid prefers an offense like he runs with Smith but when he doesn't have the guys to make it work, he changes it up.

A Foles led offense would almost certainly be at least a little different than a Smith led offense. The question is whether or not it would actually be better in the kind of nip/tuck games you'll get down the stretch or in the post-season.

Shit man, I don't know and neither does anyone else here. It might be. Personally, I think it wouldn't be but I wouldn't bet my house on that.

I just think people need to be a shitload more equitable in how they analyze this. Foles isn't some cumslinging downfield passing machine - never has been. Smith isn't Matt Cassel out there mis-firing on every third pass and turtling. The odds strongly suggest that both guys are just slightly different versions of a very average quarterback.

But Smith's winning games at a rate surpassed by very few in this league and I think that earns him the benefit of the doubt and a hell of a lot more rope than he's given 'round here.

Turnover differential man. He takes care of the ball and the winning ship keeps sailing. How many times since he's been in kc has Alex turned it over in our own territory? It's a yuge thing that's kept our scoring D so low the last few years.

Just to be clear, Reid's a winner. This franchise had some talent, but was a complete, complete disaster when he took over. Pioli had wrecked it. I have no problem with Reid. I agree his offense isn't the most exciting necessarily, but he's been about as successful as anyone not named Belichick over the last 20 years. But, his offense is all about short passes. And it just drives people here crazy, even though we keep winning. Reid's closing in on being one of the 10 winningest coaches ever.

hypocrite

Oh i wasn't referring to you as miserable.

He does have a point on what's going to happen here after the game.

This is my fear. That Foles completely shits the bed. We kinda assume (at least i do) that as long as he doesn't turn the ball over then the offense won't look much different.

Im mostly excited to see a variable at QB since it allows us to see how every other aspect of this offense reacts with out Smith. It may give us a good gauge on Smith's value to this team....or a gauge to how effective Reid's system is.

But he very well may just come in and shit the place up.

The issue with Smith is that he's gonna have to tow the aggressive line more in the playoffs and against the elites. Or that's what's thought here.

I don't necessarily know either way there

Something to note and take from it what you will, but....our starting QB is out for the week and no one is panicking.

LMAO

DJ not only with the Left Nut, he's giving them the Right Nut too.

When you haven't had your starting RB or LB all year, you probably get used to it

Team has alot of big injuries over this nice run of 15-2..they still keep trucking. Reid has warts, but it speaks to how good of a coach he is.

Given what we've seen in recent years, I don't know if it's being aggressive as much as just making the big key plays and not turning the ball over. Russell Wilson won a Super Bowl throwing for about 200 a game, and Peyton Manning has zero left in the tank at the end of last year. Defense can still win, and really great defenses usually do.

Then again, Flacco won a Super Bowl trying to chuck it down the field as many times as possible. He was in an unbelievable zone though, and didn't throw an INT that year... he's never captured that again.

Conservative ass Schottenheimer had a great REGULAR season record too. Is that really considered the "good ole days" around here? I am thinking what gives us the best chance to win in the ****ING PLAYOFFS against the likes of Brady and Big Ben.

I agree. I think it's a huge compliment to the coaching staff and Dorsey's scouting team.

Mostly, i simply have faith in Reid.

Wilson made BIG plays and the THREAT of Peyton going long was still there. Even though he had a noodle arm, you had to respect his RECOGNITION of someone popping open and him wobbling one towards the receiver. With Smiff, you can cheat up and he will MISS those open guys all day long.

Literally no one was afraid of Manning going deep last year, at all.

In fact I think that's what teams wanted him to do, so they could intercept that shit.

Whatever you say. They still had more respect in broken down manning's ability to hurt them then they EVER will for Smiff hurting them. FACT! And I am not a Peyton apologist.

Manning would at least TRY to get the ball where it is supposed to be, even in a weakened state.

Not that I don't believe you but where is the admission in that post? I'm confused.

And I hope you're right about Foles. :thumb:

Has Alex not made defenses defend deep in the past few weeks?

He hasn't completed most of them, no one does, but he has certainly taken plenty of 'shots' in the past couple games.

That team won so he could react w no emotion, mumble about Budweiser, hug Papa John, and ignore his teammates. Joke of a marketing ploy. Nothing to do with his deep ball (lulz) or team.

Alex Smith had more games end of last year where he was better attacking the field. The maddening part about him is he goes in spurts where he's cool with it, then spurts where he's cool with punting.

Alex's first few games was frustrating as hell. Like so many games in his kc career, he waited until he's down two scores to make a move. I've often said when Smith is down two scores, he's actually a decently effective downfield qb. So the question is, can Alex string together a few reasonably aggressive games together in the playoffs. If big Ben or Brady Force a shootout, how quickly will Alex adapt to be aggressive. That's what makes me nervous.

Because while you say he was aggressive for two games, he has a lot of games on a chiefs uniform where he was not. And the overall Aya and air yards support that. Foles didn't prove he's a starter last week and he won't this week. But he was utilizing the receiving talent in ways Alex Smith doesn't, but should. My hope is that Foles does this again and Alex gets a good look. Because if Alex can turn a more aggressive switch on more consistently, this team will be hard to beat. If he approaches games the way he did San Diego, Pittsburgh, and last year in New England where we manage first and wait til the last minute to attack, we aren't going anywhere I'm the playoffs.

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/i...7xP4fQ-exskkog

**** i got flamed by SNR, BigCatDaddy, pawn and Claynus for mentioning what a loss would do here

I agree. Luckily they had a historic defense.

Lot of different ways to wins in the post season. Some ways are just less likely.

I think that's exactly what he's saying. Smith doesn't necessarily need to be more aggressive, just make the plays when they're there.

Jags game might be interesting. KC missing a lot of pieces on O and the Jags will have a brand new OC looking to impress.

Nick Foles can't throw the ball any further than Alex Smith.

And Nick Foles isn't going to bust wide open Reid's offensive system.

If you think he is, you are absolutely delusional.

Reid's system is based on accuracy. Timing on routes. A strict route tree/patterns. Turnover margin. Time of possession.

And it wins football games.

Go ask a Cowboys fan.

Tony Romo versus Dak Prescott.

Ask Jet fans after the KC game how much they love a "gunslinger" type QB.

Foles is not a better QB than Smith and he's not going to be hurling the ball over the field. He's not going to go outside the system and freelance his way all over the field. The system works, and the system wins games.

I was thrilled when they signed Foles for exactly this situation. He's knows the system and is good enough to help keep this team in a couple of games if Smith were to go down with injury.

To keep Smith out of the Jags game and have Foles start is smart. But for the long term interest of the team's playoff success, Smith is, without question, the best option. By a very wide margin.

Alex Smith is a very good NFL QB. Especially for Reid's system. His win/loss record, accuracy %, TD/Int ratio, etc. during his time in KC proves it.

Frankly I'm absolutely stunned that he's been nearly vilified by a certain segment of Chiefs "fans" for being the near perfect QB for Reid's system that has led to winning records every year he's been here including two playoff appearances and a playoff win. The KC Chiefs fans "basket of deplorables" if you will.

Has anyone done a comparison of Foles' first four seasons with Alex's? Inquiring minds would love the breakdown.

:thumb:

This

There have been plenty of QBs in Reids system that weren't afraid to air it out. Again, nobody is saying turn this into an aerial assault. Just be aggressive more often. It isn't just about the system. The throws are often there but Alex checks down to a safer option. Alex is a good qb for Reids system when he attacks enough to open the offense and he's had spurts of games where he does. His conservative approach often works when our defense puts forward a strong performance. Our track record against good offensive opponents is not as great.

Our w/L record may be good. But so was Marty's. The question is if this is sustainable playoff football. I would prefer we not win 4 playoff games this way. We have to adapt when our defense needs the offense, and we can't wait until we're down two scores to create urgency

You must COMPLETE them to STRIKE FEAR

At least we can all agree....

we LOVE the Chiefs!!!!!

Don't you have some tramp you have to go bang?

As a Laker fan, a good analogy is Kobe (Who I hold in MUCH higher regard than Manning). He wasn't what he used to be but he STILL drew double teams, even at his advanced age. Even dropped 60 on the way out, but I digress.

Personally I don't give a rat's ass how we win in the post season as long as we keep winning until there are no more games to be won.

Until Reid retires, I'd suggest you find a new team to root for then. It's not Smith. It's the system. And the system wins games, which subsequently puts you in a position for post season success. Go watch Smith in college under Urban Meyer's spread offense. He threw the ball downfield plenty.

If the Chiefs, Smith and Reid's offense is so boring, then maybe you would like a Chip Kelly 49ers team. I hear he's got an exciting offensive game plan.

A real QB would make our receiving corps household names.

Didn't Smith's downfield passing ability decrease significantly after he injured his shoulder with the 49ers? I've heard/read that a few times from 49er fans.

Can't wait for Sunday and hear the excuses for BIG STICK NICK getting his shit off.

Im not sold on Foles at all. There has to be a reason he couldnt win a starting job anywhere else and agreed to come here to be Smith's backup. This game will probably be closer than everyone thinks.