Are you still able to give a QO to trade deadline acquisitions?

Nope.

edit: unless he isn't going to be a free agent after that year. If you trade for a guy with 4.5 years of service, then sure, after the next season you could since you'd have him for that entire final season.

Right, makes sense... and that definitely changes the landscape of the deadline firesales. I wasn't under the impression that this was the case (on the QO and pick), but it's not something I disagree with.

Yeah, its a brand-new rule with the new CBA. When they introduced the QO and new draft pick rules, they also required that you had to have the player for the entire season to extend a QO. They probably got sick of seeing the A's grind out all those free draft picks.

... and tired of seeing the Rays grind out picks out of Type B free agents...

Yeah, if you want to optimistically believe we can beat the Tigers, you've got to hang your hat on defense. Its clear that the royals don't just have a good defense, they have an elite defense that can make mediocre pitchers look good.

We can barely measure that sort of thing in a way that is usable by WAR, there's still questions about dWAR and whether you need 2 or 3 full seasons, etc. Projections can't handle defense at all, they have to basically presume every team has a league-average defense and focus just on pitching and offense. If we really did have a league-average defense, we'd be in a lot of trouble.

Errors are easy to see, we all know that 4-out and 5-out innings lead to a lot of runs, but the Royals tend to give their opponents 8 or 9 "hard 3-out" innings, and our opponents usually give the Royals at least 2 "soft 3-out" innings per night. Those are innings where it wasn't really an error and they didn't really make a mistake, it would have taken a great play to make the out, but they didn't, so we've got a soft 3 outs to work with and do some damage. The other team doesn't get those, if you want to get on base against the Royals, you have to get a clear hit or take a walk.

It's like Duncan and Alnorth speak a totally different language in this thread sometimes....

So basically we should include the pick we will get when Shields walks when evaluating "THE TRADE".

We get into big trouble real fast if Cain cannot stay reasonably healthy. For as well as he projects on paper, I still contend that Dyson is a long-term defensive liability because of a lack of instincts (unless he moves to LF for extended play).

In that case, you need to devalue the pick by a couple years. Kinda like in the NFL draft we consider that next years 1st-rounder is worth this year's 2nd-rounder.

Agree.

Cain's defense is a key part of the equation.

One of the benefits of having Gordon and Aoki on the corners is that each has above-average range for a player at his position. On days Cain does not play, Gordon/Aoki should be able to make up a little of the difference.

I couldn't be more in agreement with you about Dyson. He's fast, but he's not a very good outfielder outside of that skill. I'd argue that Bonifacio is just as steady in CF, with the added bonus of being able to play multiple positions.

They really could have easily found Boni 2 starts a week in CF, 1 start a week at 2B, 1 start a week in either LF or RF, and a start a week at 3B. That's basically full time work.

The infield defense should be excellent on an everyday basis. Omar Infante is an average defender, and he's the "worst" defender out of that IF group.

And yet, defensively Infante is still an upgrade over what we had previously at the position.

Oh, totally is an upgrade. Chris Getz, for all the acclaim Yost heaped on him, was nothing more than an average defender. And that really was because he was sure-handed. Bad range and weak arm.

Infante has a bit better range and a stronger arm but is maybe not as sure-handed.

Just hard to stand out when you're in an IF that features Hosmer at first, Escobar at short, and Perez behind the dish (all of whom are excellent), as well as Moustakas (who, when in shape, is above-average with the glove).

They're both awesome, and I'm glad we have them around. I get all my Royals news from this thread, and those two contribute a lot of information.

Bonifacio was designated for assignment last Saturday. With only four days left before something has to be done with him, I'm surprised we haven't heard any rumors about his future. Anyone have any ideas?

Dodgers and Yankees both make a lot of sense.

We are way too excited for this season as this thread is moving wayyyyy to fast for me to keep up!

Quick...Where's Globe Life Park?

Hint: Your ballclub (as well as mine) will be playing there sometime this season.

so here's a question......if Glass were to say naming rights at the "K" would bring in an additional 10 million a year......and he, contractually, would have to add that to the payroll (thus, allowing extra room for let's say, Santana signing)......

Would you be ok with it?

(leave out the obvious that he COULD add the 10 million a year from other sources if he really wanted to)

If I remember correctly, the extra revenue would only amount to 2-3 million per year.

yeah, I figured as much.....all hypothetical, of course.

PECOTA has us finishing under .500. What gives?

IT'S OUR TIME DAMMIT. My official motto for the year

No "media" or no one outside of the fan base believe in us.

Our pitching staff behind Shields is mostly question marks.

Yeah, hopefully our defense makes up for some of that.

As was mentioned earlier in the thread, the projections don't take defense into account very well.

Since this is a fantasy scenario that has no basis in reality, I don't need to think about it.

Naming rights are worth a mere pittance even in large markets. Its not worth it.

Our defense last year was incredible, as measured by objective statistics. It contributed about 5-6 extra wins, so if we had a league average defense, we would have struggled to get over .500.

Projections (like PECOTA) can not project defense, so they basically assume everyone's defense is average and project batting and pitching. That is usually fine for most teams, but if you think your team's defense will be either horrid or elite, then the projections might be off.

Our defense had better be elite again in 2014, because even if our offense takes a big step forward like we hope, it won't matter if our defense regresses to merely average, because our starting pitchers won't blow teams away.

My bad got wrong info, sorry.

PECOTA (and other projection systems, but especially PECOTA) is also terrible at projecting young players' progression. Part of that is because young guys are so unpredictable. Another part of that is because most projection systems assume some regression as part of their formula. It may make sense mathematically, on paper, but it doesn't make a ton of sense to project a young hitter who has had some success to regress at ages 26-30. Not in real life.

A guy like Hosmer, who was very good as a rookie, bad as a sophomore, meh for two months and then awesome for 4 months in year 3, is very hard to project accurately.

PECOTA, for example, has Eric Hosmer projected at:
.276/17 HR/75 R/77 RBI/.334 OBP/.423 SLG

From June 1, 2013 - when he really seemed to have worked through his growing pains - Hosmer was: .318/.367/.494 with 16 HR and 63 RBI.

Human projection systems see Hosmer as more like .300/.350/.475 with 20-25 HR and 90-100 RBI.

Just one example of where PECOTA is inadequate.

Royals sign Santana. Is what I hope to see everytime I click on this thread. :D

Just heard on 610 that Mike Sweeny was being brought in as some sort of special assisstant?

Team chaplain?

Finally get some decent steroids on this team.

I'll bet my left nut he doesn't do that.

I nearly had a heart attack.......:cuss:

:D

Can we hold you to that? Considering he just bettered that pace for the last 2/3 of a season...

His June 1-end of year pace would have had him at:

.318/.367/.494
22 HR
36 2B
3 3B
86 RBI
92 R

Over a full season (600 AB)

I don't think .300/.350/.475 with 20-25 HR is a crazy projection for him. I'd probably be a bit more conservative - .290/.350/.450 with 20-25 HR - but either projection is a step above what PECOTA sees.

I get that he had a hot 2nd half of the season, but so? Lots of guys do that. Doesn't mean we can straight extrapolate it to a whole year. If he really goes 300-25-100 then he becomes a truly elite 1B in baseball given how good his glove is (defensive stats be damned, he's very good defensively). I just can't buy Hosmer as elite. Not yet.

Great.
Bringing Sweeney back to work in the front office.
Because he knows how to win.
Yeah.....

His job will be teaching Hosmer how to suck up all the available cash for the next five years, while we lose Shields, Moose, Escobar and Perez. Then as soon as he gets his huge money, he'll hurt his back and play about 30 games a year for the next four years.

Terrific.

Somewhere Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran are laughing their collective asses off, and rolling around in a giant pile of money.

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/new...c&ymd=20140207

He's NOT elite yet. But he did what he did for 4 months straight at the age of 23. It wasn't just an improvement, it was a DRAMATIC turnaround and what the scouts were saying he was going to do when he got here and developed. So there is a lot of basis for optimism.

Also, I'm not as sold on Hos defensively as others are. He makes way too many routine blunders to be considered great with the glove. He will make a flashy play here and there, showing his athleticism, etc... that's fine and dandy... but the truly great defenders are much more consistent than he's shown to be. I think he's a good defender, just not gold-glove already like some proclaim him to be.

Buster Olney said yesterday that a bunch of teams are concerned about Santana's elbow.

His defense comes down to glovework and throwing ability. He's nifty with the glove and throws extremely well for an IF, let alone a 1B.

His range is a little below average, it seems. Think positioning has something to do with that. He also lacks a great first step.

Offensively, Hosmer showed nice progression. I'm still not certain he's going to continue improving or even playing at the level he showed from June 1 on, once he fixed his swing and got his confidence back. But it is not unreasonable or a stretch to think he's going to do that.

In charge of milk and cookies.

Exactly. His accuracy on throws is remarkable to me. He reminds me so much of Wil Clark. Dead ringers, but he needs to take that next step with the bat to make the comparison complete. And his positioning on the field is why his defensive metrics aren't better. His peers already recognize him as a + fielder.

ROFL

He will teach the players how to keep an up attitude while never making the playoffs.

Over / under until he's on the DL?

And if we don't break .500 this year, we can blame Jesus.

http://www.mikesweeney.org/

From 2003 to 2007, we paid this guy $11 million per year.

That's $55 million dollars.

During that stretch he only hit .300 one year, in 2005.

Games played:
2003: 108
2004: 106
2005: 122
2006: 60
2007: 74

He stole... STOLE.... $22 MILLION from KC those last two seasons.

Except for 2003 when KC finished 3rd in the AL Central, all of the other four years of Sweeney contract the Royals finished DEAD LAST in the AL Central, including 100 loss seasons in 2004, 2005 and 2006.

And they want this guy back because.....?

Why does he need to work? He already has $55 million Royals Bucks.

If he wants to dress up and be Slugrrr, OK. If he wants to run the carousel, OK. If he wants to be a greeter and serve milk and cookies in the Royals Hall of Fame, OK. But for God's sake, KEEP HIM AWAY FROM THE PLAYERS!!!

:LOL:

:thumb:

Not sure I get all the hate towards Sweeney.

While we're at it, let's get Andy Reid to hire Bill Kenney as Chiefs QB Coach. He was 34-43 as a starter. Leadership!

One good thing I'll say about Sweeney, if you call him a Pussy long enough, he'll eventually snap....

Or hire Doug Henry as an organizational pitching coach... oh wait.

This

People are acting like he faked serious neck and back injuries.

A good Christian (like Gil Meche) would have given the money back because he didn't earn it.

Let this guy go out and save unwed mothers, he does that anyway.
Keep his losing stench away from this Chemistry.
I want winners.
I'm sick of losing.

Hell man, give this job to Lonnie Smith. He won WS rings with THREE different ball clubs!

The only way the Sweeney hate might make sense is if you think he was roided up and broke down because of it.

MIKE SWEENEY BITCHES. LIHOM. (Legend In His Own Mind). Maybe he can get up in the booth more often with Rex now and tell us all again just how great he truly is

I don't hate him.
I'm just trying to save his soul.

Thou Shalt Not Steal.

I'll say one nice thing about Sweeney.
In 16 years he got ONE post season at bat.
ONE.
With the Phillies.
And he got a hit.
So he batting 1.000 in the playoffs.

Right or wrong, Sweeney takes The hit For the lowest of the lows for the Royals.

Sweeney is simply a convenient outlet for the hatred that should exclusively be directed at David ****ing Glass.

The problem isn't that the team signed Sweeney; the problem is that they re-signed no one else.

Shit happens. People get hurt, and there will be dead money on the roster. But the cheap mother****er running the team has to pull the trigger on enough talent that one man doesn't dictate everything.

What scares me is that last year was the High point for the next quarter of a century.

A-Rod has given up his legal fight. His legal team just now dismissed the lawsuit they had filed against MLB, so it looks like he's suspended for the year. He had zero chance of winning anyway because it is so incredibly hard to get a court to overturn an arbitrator, all he was going to end up doing was waste money on lawyers.

Downside is, the Yankees would collect that money back, wouldn't they?

Sweeney has always gotten some people worked up. I have no ill will toward the guy. He re-signed here at a time when he didn't have to do it. He was one of the best RH hitters in the game. When your back goes, it goes. You can't really fix it.

Sweeney haters are the Royals version of

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18lr...f/k-bigpic.gif

Once he got his cash he developed a double chin. I still think he did steroids for a time and once he quit it was all over for him.

They were talking about Kuroda on Royals Hot stove this evening. Yanks GM already making a ton of excuses for his new pitcher already just incase he sucks ass. Well the rest days are different, the mlb is different, its all different. Then saying they expect him to EVENTUALLY becoming a solid 3 starter for them. You pay the guy like a top 5 pitcher all time, and your GM is saying that you might eventually be a nice 3 starter. What the hell man.

Old George is probably rolling over in his grave.LMAOLMAO

I had a nurse I work with go up to Royals fantasy camp last weekend just to see what they were doing. I was sure that because it's a "fantasy camp" and those guys are paying good money to meet the Royals, that the general public wouldn't have access to them. Not the case. He got autographs from Brett, Montgomery, Sweeney, Randa, Kendall (seriously?). Pretty cool though.

Should be another crazy season. Royals and Indians will be fighting for second place and my white sox improved a lot by getting a nice young core of players.

Hang on tight to that Jason Kendall autograph.

What a load of Bullshit. Your hatred of Sweeney is making you irrational.

Gil Meche was crazy to do what he did. I wouldn't and neither would you. If you say otherwise you're lying to yourself.

Sweeney was a great player who gave the Royals a hometown discount to stay in town. he didn't "steal" anything. He was putting up Brett-like numbers until his back and neck injuries ruined him. I honestly don't understand the hate.

It's blowfish.

Like I said, the only rational reason is if you think he roided up and broke his own body down because of it. There's obviously no proof he did, but he was playing during the height of the PED era. (If he did though, then you can kinda-sorta be justified in hating him, I guess)

I've had this argument with Sweeney-haters many times, and thats usually where they go if pressed. At this point, I'm tired of arguing over or defending the guy, I just move on.

Braniac's post was just awful. Carry on.

Very interesting article by Olney today (behind the inside paywall). Ervin Santana is basically screwed and probably should have figured out the best deal available during the week of the QO. Lots of teams are worried about his elbow (huh? Again with the elbow? None of us ever heard about this before) Next year, you'll probably start to see 2nd-tier free agents taking the QO.

Also, the Royals did try to trade Billy Butler, but they found out that full-time DH's have almost no value anymore, unless they are incredible hitters. AL teams generally do not want a full-time DH anymore, most of them prefer to rotate the DH spot around to keep their good-hitting catchers in the game and to give their other starters a half-day off.

The dream lives on.