I take it you're combining Shields 2013 and 2014? Which is why I'm confused.

Here's the deal. Giving up Myers for Shields isn't a bad thing. But giving up SEVEN years of Wil Myers for TWO years of James Shields is.

ok on that website Shields has a 2.3 to 1.8 WAR compared to Odorizzi. Odorizzi is 24. Odorizzi makes 500K.

Shields and Wade make a combined...17M?

How much do Myers and Odorizzi make combined?

So we could have taken that 15M in savings and signed ... ?

It was an awful trade when it happened. I was willing to be ok with it if it meant the Royals made the playoffs and made some sort of run. Ok. Fine.

Now that Odorizzi has developed? Hahahaha.

This was a big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big, big rape.

When the Brewers traded for Greinke we got a nice package. Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi. Cool. The Brewers GOT TO THE PLAYOFFS in a large part because of Greinke.

What did we get? We rented two years of Shields to most likely not make the playoffs, give away a starter who is basically already giving his team Shields level production while also trading a top 5 MLB prospect who scouts rave about who had a tremendous rookie season who happens to play a position in where we start NORI AOKI.

hahaha

oh

but we got Wade Davis...who will be a $7M setup man next year unless we trade him, or trade the 2nd best closer in MLB.

You're right PB...what a trade for us!

but whatever...maybe we can sign Edison Volquez this offseason!

The ****ing moment I heard about that trade I threw a 3 year old type tantrum. I've never been so angry about a non-critical part of my life. before or since.

I loathe GMDM, not for the process and all these years of losing, but because of that ****ing trade. ****.

Ready to get angrier? Monty is showing serious signs that he's turned it around for the Rays in AAA, while the A ball hitter we threw in for the trade is hitting the cover off the ball in the Rays system.

Yeah, I combined them because he's played in KC both years. Weird concept, I know.

It's SIX years of Myers, and two have already been burned. He better turn it around quickly in order to make it work. Shields will finish over 7 WAR for us and Myers is at 2.5 WAR for them. There's absolutely no guarantee he'll out-do Shields but even if he does, it'll have taken him much longer to do so.


People need to seriously consider present value for WAR anyway. 7 WAR in two seasons is worth way more than 10 WAR in five. It's like those people who still think we "won" the Greinke trade just because Cain-Escobar play here forever and eventually outdo Greinke's WAR in MIlwaukee. It's just terrible math.


Smart teams, like Milwaukee, just traded him off in year 2 and got a good SS in return. And already have CF covered via their system. They don't even need Cain or Escobar. If they can do it so can we. If we produce a decent RF (and we did last year in WAR value) then Myers is irrelevant.

You guys remind me of my ex wife. Wanting to argue about crap from the past that will not make any difference with the way things are today. Get over it. Royals make the playoffs, hopefully nobody will talk about "The Trade" ever again.

PB, I realize everyone here thinks you're a moron...I haven't been able to make that determination yet.

You are making a real good case here, though.

Anyone who thinks we "won" the Shields trade...or didn't pay a 300% markup for James ****ing Shields...is a god damn moron.

We should've gotten David ****ing Price for that package.

and the reason for my confusion with your WAR statistic was simple...

I had stated that Odorizzi was already pitching as good as James ****ing Shields.

Here's a nice question for you:

If the Rays decided they wanted to buy now because they are back in playoff contention and we offered them Shields (plus eating the remainder of his salary for the year) straight up for Odorizzi...would they take it?

The answer is quite simple, my friend. They'd say, "KEEP YOUR MONEY AND GO **** YOURSELF!"

So, after 1 ****ing year of James Shields...they already won the damn trade with Jake Odorizzi by himself.

That's simply embarrassing.

So Odirizzi finally has a great game and people are clamoring again we got severely raped? Not to mention Myers and the other players are back/still in the minors. But we got raped?

The trade still is a wash, if Butler/Moose/Hosmer would have showed up this season we would be a playoff team.

IF, Odorizzi and the others turn into stars then you can say we got raped. But right now it is not happening, even after this one game.

The Royals took their shot, we failed, but they tried. Better then the past 20 plus years before this and last year.

(and that's without mentioning they still have a perennial all-star caliber power hitting RF'er waiting to get healthy and start raping faces)

but we have Nori Aoki!!!!

but again...after 1 ****ing year we'd have a tough time trading Davis/Shields back to Tampa Bay and eating a large portion of Shields' salary just so we could get Odorizzi back.

but you can keep arguing like we super won that deal because Shields was good in 2013 and we played like 3 meaningful games in September.

it hasn't been one game

his April ERA: 6.85

Since April:

90 IP
30 ER
107 Ks

So, essentially...he's had a 3 month stretch now that has been as dominant as any stretch in James Shields' career. Shields has never averaged more than 1K per inning in his career.

He's pitching like a staff ace. He has great stuff. If he keeps throwing strikes the way he has the past 3 months...he'd be either a pretty decent 1 or a dominant 2 on any staff.

Thoughts on trade:

I talked to one of my guys last night and did not hear very many positive things about Valencia. Between his poor defense and poor attitude (It sounds like he wore out his welcome here very quickly, just like everywhere else he has played), they were looking to move him regardless.

Apparently Kratz is a Mennonite... but a Mennonite with good power who should be a solid backup catcher. So the Royals probably got better at one bench spot (C) at the expense of another.

Hendriks is probably a AAAA pitcher, but it does provide some rotation depth (better option than some of the guys at Omaha if they need a spot start).

Ultimately, though, I think this move is about the Royals' terrible roster construction. Swapping Colon for Valencia gives KC another guy on the roster who can at least legitimately play SS and gives them a chance to give Escobar a break, which he needs (don't think it's any surprise he's been slipping a bit at the plate and in the field... those are signs of either carelessness or weariness, and I'd place my money on the latter).

Hopefully, the Royals are bright enough to use Colon at 3B against LHP, but it's the Royals, so...

On Odorizzi...

The thing that's frustrating there (and that whole trade is still frustrating, though not as bad as my initial reaction to it, which involved going ballistic) is that if KC had kept him, he wouldn't be this pitcher.

I don't remember Rany talking about him as a front-end pitcher at the time of the trade, but the scouting profile on him at the time was "Solid back-end starter" not ToR guy.

The change for him has been learning to throw the same split-finger changeup as Alex Cobb, which has given him a legitimate put-away pitch. If he's in KC, he never learns that pitch, and he never becomes the force he has been of late.

I still say the balance of that trade is determined by the Royals ability to make the playoffs either this year or last. (Obviously, last year they failed). You don't make a win-now move to win 86 games and have a nice season. You don't sell off future assets as valuable as Myers and Odorizzi for that type of return.

The Royals have gotten good present value out of the deal, but if they don't make the playoffs (and is dropping a one-game playoff in Orange County really "Making" the playoffs?), it's a loss.

And as for the revisited subject of the Greinke for Cain-Escobar deal... Greinke accounted for 3.7 bWAR or or about 6 fWAR (can't find their split for his 2012 season, it probably is a little higher since he was moved at the trade deadline) in Milwaukee. Alcides Escobar produced 6.1 bWAR and 4 fWAR in that timeframe (a figure hurt by Fangraphs somehow assigning him negative defensive value in 2012).

The Royals came out pretty well in present value in that deal, just comparing those two guys over those two years. When you add the additional years of control of Escobar as well as Cain's contribution, it's really doing mental gymnastics to suggest anything other than Moore getting a very good return in a low leverage situation.

Yes, Milwaukee flipped Greinke for Jean Segura. But Segura accounted for just 0.1 bWAR and -0.2 fWAR in 2012. He was a 3.5 bWAR and 3.3 fWAR player last year due to his hot start at the plate, but has been a 0.7 bWAR and -0.3 fWAR player this season.

So while it looked like Milwaukee really crushed that Greinke deal on about June 1, 2013... the longer view tells a different story.

This doesn't make sense to me. Yeah, we would be a playoff team. Certainly not because of James Shields, though. He's pitched like a solid #3 pitcher this year, or perhaps a #4 on many staffs.

I don't hate James Shields. He's a good 2/3 that eats a lot of innings and I love how he competes.

What I don't love is the fact we gave the Rays a 300% markup for this guy.

I mean, you have to look at the opportunity cost, as well. We pay Shields/Davis around 17M this year (that's a ballpark guess I don't feel like looking up actual salaries). The Rays pay Odorizzi/Myers around 1M this year.

If we kept our two prospects, what could we have spent that 16M on? Nelson Cruz? Ervin Santana for another year?

Shit, we could've kept Will Smith who is having a hell of a year as a setup guy in Milwaukee and not have even missed the emergence of Wade Davis, either.

I mean...I understand being a GM is not easy and there is going to be all sorts of missteps...

but good lord...Dayton has done everything wrong for 2 straight years now.

Other than his April and May of 2013, Jean Segura has really not been a "good SS." Those months: .358/.397/.554 (8 HR, 6 2B, 5 3B in 204 ABs). Since that point: .248/.281/.340 (8 HR, 23 2B, 11 3B in 750 ABs)

And it's not like he's a great defender that carries his value with his glove. He's adequate at SS but not a standout defender.

Segura looks to like he's going to turn into a flash in the pan type of player.

Lol

I mean, you're not making a very good case in your James Shields/Wil Myers trade analysis...that's for certain.

You've essentially turned hysterical, prob why you can't see any other angles to an argument. But again, I really couldn't care less what you think of my opinions. Fan graphs data backs up my assertions so I don't need "hootie 2.0" to grade my papers.


On a different note, it's funny how Myers is never brought up any more. Obv he's been hurt all year but its all we heard last year. And this one? Nothing. Nobody expected that, but then nobody expected Moose-Hos to suck this late into their career either.

last year Wil Myers had a 2.5 WAR in a half season with the Rays with a .832 OPS

no one on the Royals has an .OPS over .800 last I looked

extrapolate Myers' numbers over the course of a whole year and he had a higher WAR than James Shields in 2013

so we can call Shields/Myers a 2013 wash

and now Odorizzi/Shields is a 2014 wash

so hopefully Wade Davis (is still a Royal??) in 2015 has a WAR close to 10 or we're ****ed!!!

you know...since TB still has like 4 years service time out of both Myers and Odorizzi

GOOD TRADE THOUGH

we can probably add Jeff Francoeur's negative WAR into this equation in 2013, and than Aoki's (too an extent) in 2014...and even Wade Davis' shit 2013 season as well.

we got all sorts of ****ed in this trade

I can't even imagine why anyone would try and spin it otherwise.

It's not hard to say something like:

"Gee, I really do like James Shields. Wade Davis has really surprised me this year and I think he can be an elite closer. However, boy did we get totally ass raped by the Rays in that trade!"

Myers is hurt this year so 2014 would still require a RF. Aoki sucks but nobody is saying otherwise. Regardless Myers would not be out there.

2013 we had Frenchy-Lough-Dyson give us ~4 WAR out there so not sure where you're going there either. In both years Myers wouldn't have impacted our team had he stayed.

Do you think the Royals place too much emphasis on clubhouse, chemistry, attitude? Is that one reason we have the cliqueish Hosmer/Moose atmosphere where everybody's supposed to feel good about themselves and live by the power of positive thinking?

Valencia crushes LHP and is a good platoon partner for Moose, who is worthless vs. lefties. Yet we dump him, allegedly because he's a cancer, and keep Ibanez, who brings nothing to the table, because Raul is a good teammate.

Now, maybe Colon will be a good platoon partner with Moose (he WAS mashing lefties in AAA). I HOPE they at least try to platoon him with Moose; I'm skeered that they believe "Moose is fixed" and therefore warrants more ABs vs. LHP, despite zero evidence that he can or has ever hit them worth a crap.

But we basically broke up a decent platoon (while boosting a WC rival's platoon situation) and got virtually nothing in return -- AAA depth and a backup C who might not get 50 ABs the rest of the way. When we could've just cut Ibanez and brought Colon up.

Was Valencia THAT BAD in the clubhouse? A.J. Pierzynski bad? Or do Moore/Yost have a too-low tolerance for different personalities?

that's nonsense

duncan said a few posts ago that Odorizzi never would have developed that pitch had he stayed in KC.

so we can't speak like Myers would have been injured had he never been traded

of course, using that logic...we can only assume Myers would have hit about .190 with 10 HR's like the rest of our "all-star" prospects!!

this STILL does not discount the fact that we got ass raped by the Tampa Bay [Devil] Rays in that trade.

any time you can pay a 300% markup to get James Shields (and not even David Price) you gotta do it!!

I can't wait until the 2015 All-Star game! Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi will represent the Rays.

But don't worry, our closer Wade Davis will represent the Royals and Prison Bitch will point his fingers and say, "see! see! and Shields led us to two winning seasons!!!!!!"

haha

Yes. I think it's yet another one of those old school things the Royals "brain trust" (and I use that term loosely at this point) thinks is important but really doesn't effing matter.

I think the goal with this move was to improve at several backup spots (2B, SS, C) at the expense of one. I suspect they think Colon can handle what Valencia was doing at 3B, and do so without being a pain in the ass.

It's a weird move if they don't make another one, and I agree that Ibanez should have simply been cut to bring up Colon.

I was listening to the Border Patrol in 810 this morning, and they kept assuming that Moose would be playing against LHP, saying it was a stupid idea. Guess those boneheads forgot Colon's played 3rd before.

A smart team would be planning to use Colon as the reserve at 3B...

Of course, the Royals rarely act like a smart team, so they may be right about Moustakas.

Our pitching staff would not be this good without shields. He gave those pitchers valuable insight and is a leader. The guys we traded more than likely would of never became better here since we would not have had the leadership.

Only thing that would not of happened, we would not of sent myers down for sucking or for very long. And knowing our coaching odorrizi would be bullpen to get Chen more starts.

Th a t is how shit works for the royals.

I hated the trade at first, but backed off a lot once the way our other pitchers became. Hell, I would try and sign shields for 2 years if we get a good deal. He is a better coach than the actual one for pitchers.

Odorizzi looks good in TB, but I think we all know he would have sucked here. Because Royals. I'd like to think Shields has helped guys like Duffy/Ventura. That makes the trade a little more bearable.

Signs that you've been ****ed on a trade:

Fans can point only to non-quantifiable or measurable "benefits" to justify the trade.

Good thing we have the actual data that proves the trade has been overwhelmingly skewed our way so far. The worst is attacking a trade based on "what could be" in the future, like Hootie is doing.

Shields has helped a couple of young guys not kill themselves. "I Knew I played for the Royals so I figured I would kill myself, but then Sheilds let me know about free agency...so I didn't Kill myself"

I'd actually be interested to hear from Duffy/Ventura about what Shields' presence has meant to them and their development. Unfortunately, I don't think we'd get a genuine answer to that kind of question.

Exactly. Quite honestly, we don't platoon enough with the Moose & Valencia combo. Valencia did what he was supposed to do in his platoon role. I mean in the grand scheme of things it's not that big of a deal. We don't really have a good third basemen that can play everyday, but unless this Hendrix guy ends up being a steal in coming years, I don't see the value in this trade.

I'll also point out that Odorizzi's success right now is based on a new pitch he unveiled this year. A lot of guys are seeing that from him for the first time (hell, a lot of guys are seeing him for the first time). It will be interesting to see how the pitch holds up over time, once there is a lot of tape on it and once guys have seen it live more often.

yep...strikes is baffling people everywhere!

Yep. And the non-facebook fans said as much at the time. It was clearly a duct tape attempt to not lose his job. It's a complete and utter failure if the Royals do not make the playoffs this year.

lolol royals hall of fame avie

Im drumming up support for Ken Harvey in 2015

and I was beating the odo drum so ****ing hard...

Yep. You're going to be the man on that if he ends up being an ace.

I can only imagine the outcry had we traded Moose after 2012 when he hit 20hr as a 23 yr old in his first full season. Nobody knew how badly he was about to suck balls after. Or if we traded Erica after 2011 when he hit 19hr as a 21 yr old. Nobody knew he'd become a gutless ground ball hitter.

Butthurt day in the Royals thread.

http://mashable.com/wp-content/uploa...3/07/Glee1.gif

Please check your inbox

This is similar to the Joe Burke era. "Need a power bat", says Whitey. Burke ignores him and gets us Rev. Jerry Terrell, light hitting 2b from the Twins. Could have pulled the trigger and paid for Larry Hisle as Calvin Griffith was firesale-ing the team anyway.

But no. We eventually got the washed up George Scott. He hit one HR. I guess there was one big difference in the teams. Several players from that era actually produced on the field.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>According to <a href="https://twitter.com/jaysonst">@jaysonst</a> on The Program despite what Dayton Moore said a few weeks ago they are telling other teams they can&#39;t take on salary</p>&mdash; The Program (@theprogramkc) <a href="https://twitter.com/theprogramkc/statuses/494184502525034497">July 29, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Its silly season when it comes to trades and rumors. Until Thursday I'm not going to believe anything.

.....which is why it's dumb to spend 15M on three relievers plus 5 on Chen. No money avail if you need it

"I'm obsessed with winning." /Glass

Duffy and Ventura's emerging is why we have 2 high priced bullpen pitchers.

It's not my money so I can spend it freely, but it makes zero sense to me from a business perspective if you had a $94 million roster and were on the cusp of contending to just say "We can't add anymore." You might as well have gone in with a $40 million roster at that point and keep the change or, if you gave a shit, invested the profit in future payrolls.

I hope it's a smokescreen, but you're either all-in or you're a loser. When you straddle the fence you just get repeatedly struck in the balls.

Yeah, unfortunately he's talking about his favorite team the Cardinals....

Who are you talking about?

Hocheaver and Davis. They were brought in to be starters, thus their salaries. Duffman and Ace emerging pushed them out of the rotation. We now have 2 high priced bullpen arms.

Chen is Chen. He is the #6 starter and long reliever. Have no problem with his role on the team or salary.

Sure. I think Hochevar was a known commodity when he was last inked. They could have walked on him without anyone blinking, so Moore was committing to him as a reliever.

Agree about Davis, but the writing was pretty much on the wall with him, too.

Davis and Hoch were planned for the pen this year. Chen was slated for the 5th spot behind shields-Guthrie-Vargas-Ventura. Ventura was planned for the rotation since last year. Therefore this is all nonsense.


Fact: DM had $ burning a hole in his pocket and so he burned it. Simple as that. He mis allocates resources, always has always will.

Hendriks has great control but his stuff isn't good enough to play well in MLB from what I've seen. It would obviously play much in a park that limits HRs more than the Rogers Centre.

Kratz is a decent backup catcher. He's solid defensively and has some power.

Anything I should know about Valencia beyond the fact that he hits lefties and can't really play any position but 3rd?

He can't hit righties, other than that.. no.

He can't really play 3rd either.

Noticed that in his defensive stats.

Yeah, he'll be platooning for sure.

@CBSFantasyBB: Report: Royals might go after Bartolo Colon or A.J. Burnett - http://cbsprt.co/1isw9ba. Looks like we may not have enough payroll though...also I'd be for Colon if he DH's

There might not be enough BBQ in KC for both Billy and Bartolo.

Don't forget Andy Reid. KC could face a natural disaster of epic proportions...a BBQ shortage!

Bartolo Colon is intriguing.

I mean, he's my age and still pitching at a pretty nice statistical clip. He could fare well at the K, and while I still believe that power is the missing component, another starter would be nice as well.

Whose spot does he take, though?

Hochevar and Davis are in the bullpen because they sucked dick in the rotation.

"The Key to the Trade" Davis was acquired as someone who was supposed to be a key member of the Royals rotation for several years.

Duffy and Ventura emerging were always part of the plan. Those two didn't replace Davis and Hochevar. Davis and Hochevar were placed by FA types like Jason Vargas.

Probably Guthrie's.

Hearing this shit about our payroll infuriates me. I cannot wait for the day we have a real, competent owner(s).

This is going to be difficult to stomach, but Andy tweeted a few months ago that there were whispers from the FO that Duffy was going to be shut down around the 150 inning mark.

It's annoying, but we have to come back to DM. Dude was given $92M, and he's put together a shit ML roster.

That's enough money. Hard to blame Glass too much, other than for continuing to employ an incompetent GM.

Having a GM who doesn't allocate $15 million dollars (or 1/6 of his payroll) to three RH relievers would also be a helpful factor.

David Glass has given Moore much more money to spend than several GMs EVER get. And he has spent a lot of it foolishly.

Dayton Moore is and always has been bad at the finer points of roster construction.

Royals need a few transplants... owners willing to spend to win AND a GM who understands the odds and doesn't waste money.

This and that

Colon = nothing in the tank, past his prime

Burnett = same, just a few year younger.

Colon had a few decent years with the Angels, Blue Jays & Indians, but well past his prime.

Neither has has great careers, but has stayed around to contribute something..... to eat up innings.

Either one would be a pretty nice pickup. We need depth in our rotation.

Given our roster and needs, I will flip my ****ing shit if we give up anything of ANY substance for a middling pitcher.

Speculation on the radio is that if KC goes after a starter then it could mean they are worried Vargas could be out a while.

I haven't been able to pay much attention to the Royals in a few weeks so I didn't even know he was on the DL.

Fangraphs: "Jake Odorizzi and the 2014 Value of the Shields-Myers Trade":


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-...dsmyers-trade/